Marquis Teague: What to Expect Based on the Stats of Similar Recruits

by KDH2011 on Jun 26, 2011 10:56 AM EDT

It's the summer and it's too long til basketball comes back. What should you do to fill the time? Obviously think about next season. When it comes to the freshmen, I think we all hunger for as much information as we can obtain. In pursuit of figuring out what exactly are reasonable expectations for our freshmen's performance I have gone back over the scout.com basketball recruit rankings for the last 5 years and looked up the stats for recruits ranked similarly to our wonderful freshmen. Hopefully we can get a better picture of what our guys might do by looking to see how similar recruits have performed in the past.

After the jump, we start with the man tasked with continuing our tradition of awesome point guards, Marquis Teague.

Scout.com ranked Marquis Teague as the number 1 point guard and number 7 overall player in the class of 2012. We'll start with the last 5 players to be ranked as the best point guard in their class.

Year	Comp by Positional Rank (1)	PPG	Rebounds	Assists	Blocks	Steals
2010	Kyrie Irving	17.5	3.4	4.3	0.5	1.5
2009	John Wall	16.6	4.3	6.5	0.5	1.8
2008	Kemba Walker*	8.9	3.5	2.9	0.2	1.1
2007	OJ Mayo	20.7	4.5	3.3	0.4	1.5
2006	Ty Lawson	10.2	2.9	5.6	0.1	1.5
	Average	14.78	3.72	4.52	0.34	1.48

*Scout ranked Brandon Jennings as the number 1 point guard in 2008. I used their number 2 (Kemba), since Jennings never played for Arizona.

So on average, Scout's number 1 point guard scored about 15 PPG with 4.5 APG. Let's briefly look at each player individually. Kyrie Irving spent most of his freshmen year sitting out due to injury, but his per game averages are still very good (although only 4 assists a game, also known as the exact same number as alleged "combo guard" Brandon Knight). John Wall was awesome. Take a moment and reminisce. Kemba's stats are the ugly duckling of this sample. He was a backup his freshman year, but still actually played 25 minutes a game, which is not much less than Doron played this year. OJ Mayo wasn't a point guard at USC; I wonder why scout listed him as one out of high school. Ty Lawson averaged an impressive number of assists right out of the gate.

My guess for Teague is that he beats the average APG number easily and rivals Wall for best APG of any recent top ranked point guard. Teague will have a preposterous number of finishers on the break and that's a great way to rack up assists. I don't think he averages 15 PPG, though. It seems like pretty much everyone on the team could average at least 15 PPG and so I suspect Teague focuses more on getting everyone involved than getting his own shot. My prediction for Marquis Teague: 13 PPG and 6.8 APG.

Finally, we'll look at the PPG for the number 7 ranked overall recruit for each of the last 5 years. I think this info is less relevant for Teague, but more information never hurt.

Year	Comp by Overall Rank (7)	PPG
2010	Tobias Harris	15.3
2009	Renardo Sidney*	14.2
2008	Scotty Hopson	9.2
2007	Bill Walker	9.7
2006	Wayne Ellington	11.7
	Average	12.02

*Sidney's stats are from his sophomore year. He was suspended for his freshman year.

So there you have it. Hopefully all this information helps you figure out what to expect from our point guard next year. I think sometimes we as fans can get blinded by the beauty of the 5 star rating and forget to look at what it means in reality. Marquis Teague will probably be very good. I think overall he will come close to, but not equal, John Wall's stats.

I have done this exact same thing for the other four recruits. I will post them if there is any interest from the community. Heck, I'll even take requests on which player to post next.

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Comments

Thanks for that write up ... some amazing stats for our incoming PG

Hopefully, he is healthy all year .. but if for some reason he gets an ankle or under the weather … who will fill in at point … Lamb? Miller? Polson?

I’d like to see where Anthony Davis fits in next …. thanks again ….

by ukcris on Jun 26, 2011 12:57 PM EDT reply actions

Teague (Maybe) 10 PPG

Lamb will be his back-up (per Calipari, not me).

Davis starts at C and gets 30 minutes per game.

by FortyYearCatFan on Jun 26, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll post Davis next

I also suspect Davis will start at C, but Scout ranked him as a PF so that’s who his comps will be in the post.

by KDH2011 on Jun 26, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

This is really good work KDH

I assume you are planning to do one for each of the other incoming freshmen?

A couple of stray thoughts:

Irving’s stats are somewhat out of place given the level of competition he faced before his injury. He didn’t have to play through conference season (although the ACC wasn’t all that great this year) and I wonder how that might have affected his numbers.

You made me curious about the Assist Rate for each player:

Irving: 29.8%
Wall: 34.8%
Walker: 20.7%
Mayo: 21.4%
Lawson: 34.5%

So the 3 guys who were the point guards for their teams were around 30% or better, my guess is that Teague will be closer to 35% than to 30% and that will translate to a lot of assists with the kind of up and down pace we expect them to play at next season.

Great work, I’m looking forward to more!

3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.

by JLeverenz on Jun 26, 2011 1:07 PM EDT reply actions

Frustration with Irving

I’ve already got that numbers for each of the incoming freshmen, I just have to write the posts. My plan is to post one a week.

The lack of data on Irving makes evaluating him very difficult. Subjectively, when I watched him play I didn’t see the same kind of court vision that people like Wall or Lawson had. When you add that to concerns about his athletic ability, I would’ve taken Williams.

I thought about adding in a couple advanced stats to the posts, but I figured simple stats were the best way to start discussion. If you want to add any in the comments of future posts like you have here that would be great.

I also fully expect a fast pace for UK next year. What makes me so excited about our chances is that I think our personnel can play either a fast break or half court offense, depending on what the defense is giving us. If Terrence improves his shot and he and Lamb learn how to run pick and roll it might be the single most effective play in the entire NCAA.

by KDH2011 on Jun 26, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Cool

I didn’t get to see much of Irving, just the game against Michigan St, then in the tournament. I’m not all that great at judging things like court vision or athleticism anyway, so I bow to your perceptive abilities on those counts ;-)

I believe TJ is going to be dynamite next season – the offense he had in the first half of his freshman year but with better decision making and more efficient shots. It will be a lot of fun to watch how he sets up with the other players.

3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.

by JLeverenz on Jun 27, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

TJ won't face as many double teams as last year - it will really help his game

Just who would you leave unguarded on this juggernaut of a team..?

A man is nothing more than a summation of his scars!

by KansasUKCat on Jul 1, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Did he face a disproportionate number of DTs last season?

I honestly don’t remember. I do remember UL did it a lot and he made them pay by getting the ball to Jorts, but I think that was the exception rather than the rule.

3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.

by JLeverenz on Jul 1, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Great Job!

As a summation post I’d ask that you aggregate the entire team of starters (you pick’em and use last year’s stats for any non-freshman you choose) and compare total projected team stats against some of our erstwhile competitors for this coming season.

With your permission, we can keep you business in this vein for a considerable time. :))

Once again great job.

by TeamWeaver on Jun 26, 2011 3:07 PM EDT reply actions

Really good comparison, KDH!

One of the things that would be equally interesting to see (for Teague, anyway), is how Calipari’s last four point guards stacked up. I think it’s difficult to expect Teague to be as transcendent as a Derrick Rose or John Wall. Yet it’s scary to think that he could be more of a pure point than Brandon Knight or Tyreke Evans, yet equally as deadly of a scorer.

The sky really is the limit. Of your comps above, my best guess is a Kyrie Irving-type season, with less emphasis on shooting the 3 (let’s hope a mysterious foot injury doesn’t come along!). He should be deadly driving to the hoop, and has a great knack for drawing fouls and making a living at the line. I think he’ll be up to the challenge of finding the open teammate, though not to the extent of a John Wall, but be prepared for the occasional bad pass or two.

Can’t wait to see to other freshmen profiled!

http://aseaofblue.com | http://marchtomarch.fantake.com | @jc_at_m2m

by jc25 on Jun 27, 2011 9:05 AM EDT reply actions