Marquis Teague: What to Expect Based on the Stats of Similar Recruits

It's the summer and it's too long til basketball comes back. What should you do to fill the time? Obviously think about next season. When it comes to the freshmen, I think we all hunger for as much information as we can obtain. In pursuit of figuring out what exactly are reasonable expectations for our freshmen's performance I have gone back over the basketball recruit rankings for the last 5 years and looked up the stats for recruits ranked similarly to our wonderful freshmen. Hopefully we can get a better picture of what our guys might do by looking to see how similar recruits have performed in the past.

After the jump, we start with the man tasked with continuing our tradition of awesome point guards, Marquis Teague. ranked Marquis Teague as the number 1 point guard and number 7 overall player in the class of 2012. We'll start with the last 5 players to be ranked as the best point guard in their class.

Year Comp by Positional Rank (1) PPG Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals
2010 Kyrie Irving 17.5 3.4 4.3 0.5 1.5
2009 John Wall 16.6 4.3 6.5 0.5 1.8
2008 Kemba Walker* 8.9 3.5 2.9 0.2 1.1
2007 OJ Mayo 20.7 4.5 3.3 0.4 1.5
2006 Ty Lawson 10.2 2.9 5.6 0.1 1.5

Average 14.78 3.72 4.52 0.34 1.48

*Scout ranked Brandon Jennings as the number 1 point guard in 2008. I used their number 2 (Kemba), since Jennings never played for Arizona.

So on average, Scout's number 1 point guard scored about 15 PPG with 4.5 APG. Let's briefly look at each player individually. Kyrie Irving spent most of his freshmen year sitting out due to injury, but his per game averages are still very good (although only 4 assists a game, also known as the exact same number as alleged "combo guard" Brandon Knight). John Wall was awesome. Take a moment and reminisce. Kemba's stats are the ugly duckling of this sample. He was a backup his freshman year, but still actually played 25 minutes a game, which is not much less than Doron played this year. OJ Mayo wasn't a point guard at USC; I wonder why scout listed him as one out of high school. Ty Lawson averaged an impressive number of assists right out of the gate.

My guess for Teague is that he beats the average APG number easily and rivals Wall for best APG of any recent top ranked point guard. Teague will have a preposterous number of finishers on the break and that's a great way to rack up assists. I don't think he averages 15 PPG, though. It seems like pretty much everyone on the team could average at least 15 PPG and so I suspect Teague focuses more on getting everyone involved than getting his own shot. My prediction for Marquis Teague: 13 PPG and 6.8 APG.

Finally, we'll look at the PPG for the number 7 ranked overall recruit for each of the last 5 years. I think this info is less relevant for Teague, but more information never hurt.

Year Comp by Overall Rank (7) PPG
2010 Tobias Harris 15.3
2009 Renardo Sidney* 14.2
2008 Scotty Hopson 9.2
2007 Bill Walker 9.7
2006 Wayne Ellington 11.7

Average 12.02

*Sidney's stats are from his sophomore year. He was suspended for his freshman year.

So there you have it. Hopefully all this information helps you figure out what to expect from our point guard next year. I think sometimes we as fans can get blinded by the beauty of the 5 star rating and forget to look at what it means in reality. Marquis Teague will probably be very good. I think overall he will come close to, but not equal, John Wall's stats.

I have done this exact same thing for the other four recruits. I will post them if there is any interest from the community. Heck, I'll even take requests on which player to post next.

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