Ready or Not: Should Terrence Jones Come Back?
by TeamWeaver on Apr 28, 2011 4:53 AM EDT
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PrintThe question in Glenn's blog post is, "Are Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones NBA ready?" Because the NBA has been shown to select on potential, I think that question of 'Ready or Not' is not as interesting to the average UK fan as the issue: "Given their projected draft positions, should they come back for another year at UK."
I agree that Knight can only damage his draft position by returning and dropping back into the 2012 draft. The only chance he would have to improve on this year's projected #5 pick is to try and take advantage of the fact that while the 2011 draft has Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker and Knight (if he stays in this draft) projected to go top-5, the 2012 draft is very weak in PG's with DraftExpress projecting no point guards in the top-12. It's possible injuries and other NBA season related factors could allow Knight to take advantage of the projected PG scarcity in the 2012 draft and be prized again as a top-5 pick. IMO, you've got to love Las Vegas to take those odds.
Liggins is seen as a defensive specialist and such are seldom picked in the 1st-round. If there was a way for him to develop an offensive game to go with his demonstrated defensive skill set, then he might claw his way into the bottom of the 2012 1st round by coming back. However, because he would be battling the established mental image the NBA player personnel people already have of him from this year, that offensive eruption would have to be spectacular. The problem with this strategy is that, although I believe he possesses an offensive game he hasn't as yet displayed, Liggins will have a very hard time getting the minutes on next year's 'Cats team to showcase such new and improved offensive prowess. Whatever potential Liggins has in this years NBA Draft, it's unlikely, imo, to improve by coming back for another year.
On the other hand, if Jones is slotted to be picked in the eight-12 range, say 10th in this draft, then I think he has the potential to actually improve his draft status by returning to UK for another year. Improving his right hand and demonstrating improved shooting, along with having the dominating 2011-12 season he seemed to promise early this year, could/would move him up even in the preternaturally stacked 2012 draft.
Bottom line: I think Jones COULD improve his draft position, but it's very unlikely Knight or Liggins could.
That brings us to the topical issue: "SHOULD Jones come back?"
There are a lot of factors that might enter into such a decision but, imo, all are overwhelmed by the money involved. Therefore, I'll only deal with this on a financial basis assuming no meaningful lockout.
A rookie drafted 10th will earn $1.9 million in his first year under the NBA Rookie Salary Scale as defined in the current NBAPA CBA ($2.1 million in year two, $2.2 million in year three). If Jones comes back to UK he's going to fore-go that $1.9 million he could have made in the first year in the Association. That means to make it financially reasonable for him to come back he's got to believe he can - AT LEAST - improve his draft status in the 2012 draft sufficient to earn this foregone $1.9 million back over the life of his first three year contract. Given the time value of money, that would mean Jones would need to improve his 2012 Draft rookie contract by about $700,000 per year, i.e., $2.6 million in year one, $2.8 million in year two, $2.9 million in year three.
If the existing NBAPA Collective Bargaining Agreement were to be in effect in 2012, to get $700,000 of Rookie Salary Scale improvement from 2011 to 2012, Jones would have to raise his draft pick from 10th to at least 6th. On the outside looking-in, I'd say that seems difficult but reasonable. If Jones makes the credible improvement in his game I think possible, I believe he could indeed improve his draft pick to 6th.
There is a problem, however; the NBA Rookie Salary Scale under the anticipated NBAPA CBA currently under dispute, is expected to be 25% BELOW the current rookie scale. That means if he is to earn back his foregone $1.9 million lost by coming back to UK for an additional year under the new 25% lower salary scale, Jones would have to improve his draft status to THIRD. And, looking over the projected 2012 draft ... jumping to the 3rd pick - that's just not a reasonable expectation in my mind.
If I was advising Jones, purely on a financial basis, I'd have to tell him he shouldn't come back.
I'm a sad 'Cat fan.
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Revised rookie scale or not
I don’t think anyone in their right mind could advise BK OR TJ to come back based on money. These guys have risen because several top players have returned. Next yr. those guys will almost certainly come out. Add in the new kids, Davis et al, and, barring a 20 yr. old limit, they will come out after 1 yr. So, TJ/BK? Their stock will never be higher.
God Bless Our Troops............Especially Our Snipers!
BigBill ...
You have lately been involved in a discussion about why a few top players on other teams (Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, and Perry Jones) decided to return to their college teams but Jones, Knight and Liggins have one foot out the door. While I don’t have a good answer for that seeming dichotomy, particularly for Barnes, our guys seem to have their decision tied to the money being flashed at players likely to be drafted.
Theoretically, if you can match the money between two alternative choices, in this case: “Return to UK or Not,” then money drops out of the analysis and the decision can then be viewed in the context of other factors like college experience, potential championships, team loyalty, education, etc. In my analysis, money parity occurs if Terrence could improve his 2011 10th pick draft position against the projected 2012 Draft field (DraftExpress.com):
1 Anthony Davis PF
2 Harrison Barnes SF
3 Jared Sullinger PF
4 Perry Jones PF
5 Quincy Miller SF
6 James McAdoo PF
7 Michael Gilchrist SF
8 Patric Young C
9 Bradley Beal SG
10 Austin Rivers SG
Granted coming back is fraught with risk for Jones no matter what. Though insurance can mitigate some part of the risk for injury, there is no guarantee that Terrence can make the improvements to his game despite what we may think. But if Jones can strengthen his right hand and jump shot, coming back as a principal component on the incredible team Kentucky will put court next season should dramatically improve his 2012 draft position. Subject to these conditions, I think there is little doubt that Jones could climb at least 5 of the players listed above, money considerations drop out and his decision would then turn on his love of the school, team, coach, fans, education and the chance for an NCAA Championship.
Unfortunately, because the NBA Rookie Salary Scale is going to likely be about 25% lower, necessitating Jones to jump to top-3, a leap likely even beyond Terrence’s vertical, imo, the new rookie scale seems to be the actual deal killer.
TW
as I’ve stated before, I don’t do a lot of # crunching/research. My hat’s off to those that DO. I don’t have the patience for it. I recently saw TJ as a 12 on mock draft and I asked a question on here about making a choice between TJ and about a dozen other guys that were listed lower than him. So, if I assume that TJ is a 12 right now, I look at the kids ahead of him(Sullinger/Barnes for sure) and at the kids coming in this yr. that are prolly OAD next yr. I realize that the fr. are an unknown since they haven’t played even 1 game in D1. I also make a few assumptions(Davis seems to be a certain OAD, barring a 2yr. rule, as is Rivers and a few others) that would lead me to think that next yr. TJ would likely be somewhere around a 12 again. Just 1 man’s opinion.
I guess I just don’t see a scenario whereby TK can jump to anywhere near a 3(think Cousins). I think if he stayed, he’d have a tuff time cracking the top 10 next yr. I think TJ would benefit far more from another yr. at UK from a growing and maturing, mentally/emotionally, standpoint than from a financial standpoint. Could he come back and have the proverbial ‘monster yr.’? Of course. I wouldn’t bet a whole lot on it, tho. Again, that’s just ME. But, I wish him and BK and Ligs the best in all they do.
Granted, I didn’t factor in Rookie scales and it’s quite possible that I’m not as high on TJ as some other people are. Right hand aside, I don’t see his bball IQ all that great, either. No one will question his body and he has some skills, for sure. If he lands a job with the right team/coach, maybe he’ll grow into a good NBA player. TIME will tell.
God Bless Our Troops............Especially Our Snipers!
by bigbill992001 on Apr 28, 2011 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Jones is the one player that has me puzzled.
I think it is a no-brainer for Knight. He is considered a top 5 pick and does have a certain skill set that could get him on the floor right off the bat, depending on who drafts him. He can play point and 2 guard. Can shoot the 3 and is a very good free throw shooter. He is not John Wall, but I think he could see some playing time.
Jones on the other hand, can’t shoot from anywhere on a consistant basis. He really doesn’t play very good defense. He did block some shots, but can he do that in the NBA? He was a tenacious rebounder in his first year, but can he do that in the NBA? What position would he play in the NBA? Small forward? I would say that there are plenty of 2nd string small forwards in the NBA right now that are better than Jones. I just don’t see him getting that much playing time.
I really think he should return. He will have more weapons around him at UK that will take the focus off of him. He could develop his right hand, a good shooting touch, and learn to play better defense. He still gets drafted in the top 15, makes millions of dollars, has a long NBA career and could go out with a National Championship. But than again, John Wall could of stayed and developed a better shooting touch, learned to play better defense, won a National Championship, and still been drafted #1, but he didn’t come back. So this is all wishful thinking on my part.
I completely disagree about Jones Defense
Jones was nearly impossible to score against around the rim last season. Once he has a body on a guy, he doesn’t let them go around him – he forces them to shoot over his long arms.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
I agree with JLev
His defense around the basket was incredible. He altered many a shot which resulted in misses. Farther out, his defense was not quiet as good but still decent.
"SPORTS"--Not interested----"CATS"--Pull up a chair,I've got all night.
Around the basket, yes he was good.
But decent farther out probably doesn’t do you much good in the NBA. He could be a very good defender, but I don’t see him becoming a better defender sitting on the bench. And he doesn’t seem to be the type of player that would be motivated playing in the D-League.
A few million dollars is enough to cloud most of our judgments.
But short-term financial considerations are short-sighted.
You have to base your decision on the longer term, on that second contract after four years, assuming (!) the team will pick up option years 3 and 4 of your rookie scale contract. If you’re not ready, and you get drafted on a team’s assessment of your potential, it’s desperately important that you live up to that potential in your first two years. It’s important that you get off that bench.
So what’s the best way to do that? What is the best use of your time over next year? Are you better off spending that time with Calipari, or are you better off on an NBA roster with maybe some time in the developmental league? Which will better position you when the option on your rookie contract comes around? And which will make that second contract more likely/rewarding?
I don’t know. I’d like to hear that debate. But that’s what Terrence should be considering, not the time value of 1.x million dollars.
by Wheatgerm on Apr 28, 2011 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Wheatgerm...
You bring up an interesting point in your second contract emphasis. However, it has been demonstrated repeatedly that NBA organizations are exceedingly patient with their top draft picks owing to the need to get an appropriate return for such a heavy (sunk) investment. It is not clear to me that Jones would face such a stiff demand to perform early in his career such that he faced the risk of not moving on to the next contract by choosing to do all his developmental improvement while being paid.
Another point: I’ve seen several numbers for the average length of an NBA career and all are less than the 5-year mark and the median is significantly less. So when you state Jones needs “to base [his] decision on the longer term,” the reality is that, for whatever reason, less than half ever make it to the ‘long term.’ I think Scottwalls’ questions about Terrence’s ability to actually find a home in the NBA are telling. Despite what we might hope for him, that second contract is not guaranteed under any circumstance and there is always the risk that he will not stick be able to stick in the League whichever path to the NBA he takes. In that case the foregone $1.9 million looms large.
WHAT IF...
I bought my first racehorse in 1973…. A wise old owner once said “be sorry with the money and not with the horse…”. The first time I was in that position, I forgot what Mr. Bell said… I never forgot after the first time… Regrettably, these kids have only one shot in life, you can always go buy another horse, but if the first impression the NBA has of you will get you drafted in the top ten…. don’t let the door hit you in the butt on the way out… especially, with 4 or 5 other good ones opting out this year…
I disagree with the premise.
These kids do not have only one shot in life. And they do not have only one shot at the NBA. That’s an appeal to fear.
Was this year’s draft the only shot for Sullinger and Barnes?
GET HURT...
You got nothin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Terrence Jones' overall game.
It would improve so much more,if he came back to UK next season.Unfortunately there are too many reasons to go into the draft. With money as the most overwhelming factor.
A couple of thoughts
1) I think Liggins – if he returns – will get plenty of minutes next year. I don’t care how talented the freshmen will be: there is simply no possible way any of them are better than DeAndre on defense. That alone will get him close to the 30 mpg he got this year. I strongly believe that he has an offensive game that has yet to be fully revealed. DeAndre has improved both his shooting and decision making each of the last two years and while his shooting % is probably as good as it is going to get (except from the FT line), he still has room to grow such as finishing at the basket rather than attempting difficult-to-complete passes.
2) I am happy to see you consider the time value of money when discussing Jones’ decision – an aspect that is often overlooked. Wheatgerm’s mention of the second contract is equally important though, in my mind. The best way to make money in the NBA is to have a long career. So much of that however will be dictated by who Jones ends up with and I’m not sure what the best way is to estimate that variable. One place to start would be to do some kind of NBA-comp list for him and determine the career lengths of the closest comps. That would at least give some kind of estimate for him for coming out this year.
Another good piece of writing TeamWeaver – keep up the fine work.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
by JLeverenz on Apr 28, 2011 2:49 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Per Liggins,
I recall comments from Coach Cal regarding production per minute played as important in assessing the potential for college players when they go into the draft. I think he was referencing comments about Josh and his rebounds per minute played or something like that. What I am getting at is if Liggins comes back and gets less minutes but is more productive offensively and defensively in the time he is on the floor, he could improve his standing. This could be one of the reasons Miller did not enter the draft, his preponderance for lengthy stretches of play with nothing measurable in the box score did not help him. Liggins will be a role player and the job for a role player is to produce while on the floor.
I woke up feeling BLUE this morning. It's gonna be a great day.
I remember Cal making the same comment
I was checking out Liggins’ per minute stats the other day, and you can definitely see improvement in most of them from his freshman year to last. His numbers are definitely more than the result of increased playing time this year.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
Any scenario that has Liggins, Jones or Knight returning to school...
is based upon selfish motives, fan interest and folly. If my son were any of these three, I would would be extremely conflicted. As a die-hard UK fan. I would want them back so they could help bring home number eight. As a father, I would want them to realize their dreams to become a professional athlete and achieve financial security as early in their lives as possible. Since none of these three fine young men are my sons, I will fully support any rationale that suggests that they should be wearing Blue next year.
PPat Came Back
He had HUGE risks: new coach, new system, injury, his own teammates! He improved his draft status. If you want to work hard and get better and you have the talent the ONLY risk in coming back is injury. Winners decide from a position of confidence. Losers decide from a position of fear.
Act like we've been there... 'Cause we have!
by BluebloodinNaptown on Apr 28, 2011 5:44 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
New Coach, New System
Were prime reasons (considered not risks) not to mention graduation for Patterson’s return.
"I bring reason to your ears, and, in language as plain as ABC, hold up truth to your eyes." Thomas Paine, December 23, 1776
by Wild Weasel on Apr 28, 2011 5:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I seem to remember a lot of talk thinking that Cal’s dribble drive sustem might expose PPat’s weaknesses. PPat had not displayed much facing the basket play, but took the chance to get better, not worrying about the risk of being exposed as a back to the basket only type player.
Act like we've been there... 'Cause we have!
by BluebloodinNaptown on Apr 28, 2011 8:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
a little off topic, but
With everyone waiting on the edge of their seat about Jones, Knight, and Liggins, one potential draft cat has been forgotten. What’s going on with Josh Harrellson? Has he decided not to pursue his NBA dream, or just going to cash in on autographs and nike jorts from his new website? Has anyone heard any news about him signing an agent, or working out in preparation for the draft?
Cal has invited the pros to come to Lexington to see THEM
Calipari Invites All NBA Teams To UK Combine
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
yeah
I saw that. What do you make of it? Good or bad?
God Bless Our Troops............Especially Our Snipers!
by bigbill992001 on Apr 29, 2011 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Good or bad, I'm not sure
Must be fine to do it that way. Man’s a genius to find a way to allow the kids to finish classes and get recognition with some great feedback on strengths and weaknesses.
I also see a critical field day or two for some.
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
I think that is great for the players - again another Cal first
I havn’t heard of any other schoold doing this combine thing – has anyone else..?
A man is nothing more than a summation of his scars!
While it is an innovative idea
and good for the players and the program (allows the players to continue to attend class and maintain academic eligibility), I imagine the critics will have a field day with this. They are likely to say Cal further intends to simply prep players for the NBA.
This cannot last beyond this year. The NCAA just declared the date for withdrawal from the NBA draft to be much earlier. NBA scouts won’t want to evaluate players so early from their points of view.
I wonder how many NBA teams will come. I think there is a combine in New Jersey where 30 teams indicated their intentions to attend.
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