NCAA Tournament 2011: Log5 of the West, Southwest and Southeast

I wanted to do each one of these regions in a separate post, but unfortunately, time caught up with me.  Instead, we will look at the log5 of each region I have not yet covered and talk a bit about the best likely matchups.

Keep in mind that the log5 is just a mathematical formula, and is tantamount to playing the games on paper.  Fortunately for all us fans, the NCAA requires that the teams actually settle the matter on the basketball court rather than by computer or human rankings.  That's one thing that makes the NCAA Basketball championships so exciting.

We'll begin after the jump.

2011 Southwest Regional

Team Pyth. Win % Second Round Sweet Sixteen Regional Final Final Four
Seed Raw Adj.
1 Kansas 0.971 97.39% 73.75% 53.68% 35.91% 31.93%
16 Boston U 0.4726 2.61% 0.20% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
8 UNLV 0.9121 48.37% 12.31% 5.74% 6.22% 5.53%
9 Illinois 0.9172 51.63% 13.75% 6.62% 9.53% 8.47%
4 Louisville 0.944 88.48% 62.06% 25.32% 12.93% 11.50%
13 Morehead St. 0.687 11.52% 2.71% 0.25% 0.04% 0.03%
5 Vanderbilt 0.8882 55.90% 20.89% 5.31% 3.10% 2.76%
12 Richmond 0.8624 44.10% 14.34% 3.07% 1.29% 1.15%
3 Purdue 0.9547 92.56% 70.78% 43.37% 21.45% 19.07%
14 St. Peter's 0.6288 7.44% 1.70% 0.22% 0.02% 0.02%
6 Georgetown 0.8893 75.49% 23.92% 9.34% 2.66% 2.36%
11 VCU 0.7229 24.51% 3.61% 0.66% 0.08% 0.07%
7 Texas A&M 0.8631 49.23% 14.78% 4.54% 1.09% 0.97%
10 Florida St. 0.8667 50.77% 15.54% 4.87% 1.20% 1.06%
2 Notre Dame 0.9478 92.22% 68.18% 36.85% 16.94% 15.06%
15 Akron 0.6049 7.78% 1.50% 0.16% 0.01% 0.01%



800.00% 400.00% 200.00% 112.47% 100.00%

The Kansas Jayhawks are a strong favorite in this region, but amazingly, the least likely to get into the Final Four.  Louisville has a relatively low percentage to get to the Final Four.  Matchups I'd like to see:

2011 West Regional

Team Pyth. Win % Second Round Sweet Sixteen Regional Final Final Four
Seed Raw Adj.
1 Duke 0.9759 98.64% 85.96% 58.91% 42.98% 42.94%
16 Hampton 0.3591 1.36% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Michigan 0.8696 56.71% 8.62% 2.56% 0.85% 0.85%
9 Tennessee 0.8358 43.29% 5.30% 1.32% 0.37% 0.36%
4 Texas 0.9627 87.47% 69.50% 31.17% 19.83% 19.82%
13 Oakland 0.7871 12.53% 4.74% 0.60% 0.13% 0.13%
5 Arizona 0.8911 77.40% 22.98% 5.19% 1.97% 1.97%
12 Memphis 0.7049 22.60% 2.79% 0.25% 0.04% 0.04%
3 Connecticut 0.9277 84.54% 49.69% 22.66% 7.02% 7.02%
14 Bucknell 0.7012 15.46% 3.22% 0.47% 0.04% 0.04%
6 Cincinnati 0.9113 57.96% 29.08% 11.79% 3.16% 3.15%
11 Missouri 0.8817 42.04% 18.00% 6.05% 1.29% 1.29%
7 Temple 0.8756 51.02% 14.43% 5.86% 1.20% 1.20%
10 Penn St. 0.8711 48.98% 13.49% 5.35% 1.06% 1.06%
2 San Diego St. 0.9558 93.59% 70.95% 47.67% 20.14% 20.12%
15 Northern Colorado 0.5971 6.41% 1.13% 0.15% 0.01% 0.01%



800.00% 400.00% 200.00% 100.09% 100.00%

Duke has a slightly better chance at getting to the Final Four Than Kansas.  Look at UConn's low percentage into the Final Four.  Interesting matchups:

2011 Southwest Regional

Team Pyth. Win % Second Round Sweet Sixteen Regional Final Final Four
Seed Raw Adj.
1 Pittsburgh 0.9594 95.13% 77.64% 48.54% 32.94% 32.96%
16 N.C. Ashville 0.5477 4.87% 0.90% 0.07% 0.01% 0.01%
8 Butler 0.8391 49.01% 10.37% 2.85% 0.93% 0.93%
9 Old Dominion 0.8444 50.99% 11.09% 3.14% 1.05% 1.05%
4 Wisconsin 0.951 60.73% 39.41% 20.77% 13.20% 13.21%
13 Belmont 0.9262 39.27% 21.43% 9.17% 4.86% 4.87%
5 Kansas St. 0.8894 39.43% 13.06% 4.36% 1.85% 1.85%
12 Utah St. 0.9251 60.57% 26.10% 11.08% 5.83% 5.84%
3 BYU 0.9388 85.63% 56.58% 35.41% 16.59% 16.60%
14 Wofford 0.7203 14.37% 3.55% 0.82% 0.11% 0.11%
6 St. Johns 0.8814 47.29% 18.26% 8.31% 2.54% 2.54%
11 Gonzaga 0.8923 52.71% 21.61% 10.39% 3.41% 3.41%
7 UCLA 0.8348 43.41% 14.93% 4.77% 1.11% 1.12%
10 Michigan St. 0.8682 56.59% 22.64% 8.54% 2.41% 2.41%
2 Florida 0.9242 89.52% 60.36% 31.51% 13.05% 13.06%
15 UCSB 0.588 10.48% 2.06% 0.25% 0.02% 0.02%



800.00% 400.00% 200.00% 99.92% 100.00%

Pittsburgh is the second least likely of the four #1 seeds to get to the Final Four.  Lots of upset picks in this bracket:

  • Butler-Old Dominion.  The log5 likes the upset.
  • Belmont-Wisconsin.  This looks more like an upset from the outside than using the numbers.
  • Kansas St.-Utah State:  Again, log5 picks an upset.
  • Gonzaga-St. Johns:  Another upset pick.
  • Michigan St.-UCLA:  Yet another upset pick.
  • BYU-St. Johns would be an interesting second-round game.
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