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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

View from the Catbird Seat

What's wrong with these Cats?

 

I've read a lot from a number of fans, sites, supposed experts, and coach's about this year's Wildcats.  Usually I have my own, sometimes overly harsh theory of why they aren't playing the way I want them to, but this year is different.  From the beginning I've liked this team better than most teams of the past.

 

The first crack I saw was in Maui like many of us. But, as the great Leonard Cohen says, "Everything has a crack in it, that's how the light gets in."  The team I saw playing was not the same team I had been watching several nights in a row before that game.  They were slow to react defensively and didn't seem to want to make the extra pass on offense.  UConn toyed with them and there was no obvious response.  And there went the light ... that they were just plain tired.

 

Star-divide

It seems to me from then on is when the short rotation began to have it's ups and downs.  And being loaded with freshman, the mental aspect of a long season with a thin bench has been more costly and affected this team's mental toughness to a larger degree.  Yet, while the naysayers complain, and despite the close road losses, the team has relentlessly remained in the kenpom.com top ten all season.  It seems to me that this is the most underrated Kentucky team by the fans and media I have ever witnessed in the last 45 years.

 

This team could win it all.

 

Calipari has once again been playing with the chemistry and the psychology of his team through the media, but this team has seemed to teeter on the edge of collapse instead of responding in the ways he has wanted.  But I don't believe that will happen, and in the end this may his most masterful job yet.

 

Think about it.  Five of the top six players were in the top 10 of their high school recruiting class.  All six players can shoot the basketball, so if someone isn't shooting well another can step in.  Their defense is arguably one of the best in the nation.  There are two or three first rounders on this team, but likely four or five NBA roster players in the end (I think Miller and Liggins have a place in the NBA).

 

When they are rested and pumped to play, they demolish teams instead of squeak by them.

 

This team can win it all because the competition is razor thin at the top, evidenced by the way the top teams struggle to stay there each week.  All it will take is a playing their game and avoiding a cold streak, and some luck staying out of foul trouble.  Here's who else I think has a chance to go far despite the fact that no one is talking about them as final four candidates:

 

West Virginia, Illinois, Purdue, Georgetown, Louisville, North Carolina ... and my best sleeper pick along with the Kentucky's Wildcats: Wisconsin.  So,what do you think?

 

What's wrong with these Cats?

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Top 10 Recruits

Only Knight and Jones.

Lamb was Top 25. Miller and Liggins were Top 50.

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 22, 2011 7:05 AM EST reply actions  

sorry, i meant...

at their respective positions. should made that more clear.

mostdiggity

by Thomas Mario Adams III on Feb 22, 2011 8:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Gotcha

All 5 are very talented, no doubt.

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 22, 2011 9:57 AM EST up reply actions  

UK is a sleeper IMO

I think this team can do well come March. Their road woes,while upsetting to us all,won’t matter much on a neutral court. They are good defensively although I think they have to get better at defending the 3. Best of all is their shooting. If they get hot….and stay hot from the perimeter…look out.

Also,Wisconsin is always dangerous because of their style and Bo Ryan is a terrific coach IMO.

by maysvilleblue on Feb 22, 2011 1:11 PM EST reply actions  

He has taken UW to the NCAAT every year..

my guess is Badger fans are pretty happy with that. Pretty good run at a place that never was a college basketball powerhouse IMO.

by maysvilleblue on Feb 22, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe So

Badgers have been a bit disappointing in my view (as B10 fan).

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 22, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Badgers

9-6 (over many years) with 1 NCAA championship before Ryan.

12-9 (over 10 years) with 1 FF since Ryan arrived.

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 22, 2011 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

BTW Forty

I’m happy your Boilermakers took it to the Buckeyes the other night. Painter has done a magical job with this team, especially after the loss of Hummel.

by Ken Howlett on Feb 22, 2011 2:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep

Painter has done very well, especially without Hummel. Boilers have 2 stars and a bunch of good (but not great) complementary players.

22 – 25 – 27 – 29 W the past 4 years. Plus 22 W (and counting) this year.

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 22, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

In that case...

12-9 over 10 years looks better than 9-6 over many years. He has done a good job there.

by maysvilleblue on Feb 22, 2011 7:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Not 4 Mine

Wisconsin has much better than 12-9 (57%) record the rest of his time in Madison.

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 22, 2011 7:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Only 9 NCAA wins over many years...

doesn’t sound like much to me. 12 wins in just 10 sounds better.

by maysvilleblue on Feb 22, 2011 8:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Two Sweet 16's and one Elite 8 since '01.

I’d say that is far better than UW’s historical accomplishments.

He is definitely secure in his job … or at least as secure as any other DI coach not named Coach K.

by Ken Howlett on Feb 22, 2011 10:12 PM EST up reply actions  

He's Had Better Talent Than That

Won 3 B10 titles in 10 years. Wins 73% overall but just 57% in NCAA games.

He’s good but not as good as he should be (all things considered).

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 22, 2011 11:32 PM EST up reply actions  

His teams sometimes have

trouble scoring sometimes and that comes back to bite them once tourney play starts. 2003 vs UK comes to mind.

by Ken Howlett on Feb 23, 2011 12:17 AM EST up reply actions  

We get elite eight out of this group.......

might get to the FF, but I think they are elite eight material at least

I am now and shall forever be the Cat in The Hat, The Artist Formerly Known As ABC!!!

by Greg Alan Edwards on Feb 22, 2011 1:30 PM EST reply actions  

Some good points

I will stick with this as a Sweet 16 team, but a case can be made that they are better than that.

As you point out, the primary strength of this offense is the shooting and we’ve seen good shooting teams make some noise in March – no reason that Cats can’t join that group.

At this point in the season, the only reason to worry about depth is if there is some kind of cumulative effect for the year. I’m no longer concerned with them running out of gas during a game. It could be an issue if they have to play a Thursday NCAA game after playing the SEC Championship on Sunday, but I think they’ll power through.

3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.

by JLeverenz on Feb 22, 2011 1:32 PM EST reply actions  

I agree

I keep them as a Sweet 16 team only bc the tournament games turn into such a slow it down, half-court type game and a team that can slow it down and pound the ball inside will beat UK. I dont worry about the lack of depth taking a toll on conditioning, I worry about the lack of depth once someone is in foul trouble. Vargas has certainly improved, but if he has to play more than 10 minutes in a game bc Harrelson and/or Jones is in foul trouble, we are in trouble.

That being said, all it takes is one night of hot shooting and anyone can beat anyone and this UK team can certainly shoot, so the ceiling is very, very high, I just wont be dissappointed if it ends at the Sweet 16…

by Ed R on Feb 22, 2011 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Since NCAA Field Expanded In 1975

UK has made 21 Sweet 16 in 30 NCAA appearances.

Same timeframe, UK has made 16 Elite 8 in 30 NCAA appearances.

So Elite 8 is about average for UK in that timeframe.

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 22, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions  

That is interesting...

And here’s to hoping for another ‘average finish’ this year!

by Ed R on Feb 22, 2011 5:20 PM EST up reply actions  

i like the enthusiasm

depending on seed they could end up in a “road” game during NCAAT which could spell doom for this club. rather than using slurs and distractions of road game to strengthen they wilt (close but no cigar).

i wouldn’t be surprised per se if this ballclub won it all i just won’t put any money on them past the EE (although i’ll have them winning it all in a few of my online bracket contests!! :j )

them sleepers sound good…UNC is going to be a tough out….I also like Alabama’s chances if they get selected (course they gotta prove themselves come SECT time)

nice post Thomas

I have kleptomania,
but when it gets bad,
I take something for it.

by bluecrip on Feb 22, 2011 2:11 PM EST reply actions  

My picks as Dark Horses are:

Kentucky – Tennessee – St. Johns – Xavier

Hey anybody can pick a top 20 team, I’m going with true underdogs.

I believe that it’s possible for the Vol’s to right their ship and get on a roll as they did against the Big East teams in pre-conference. With them it’s mostly mental breakdowns and yes Pearl hasn’t helped their cause at times. I seriously wonder if they may have been better off with their assistant running things and Bruce back in the hotel room with Brandy.

A man is nothing more than a summation of his scars!

by KansasUKCat on Feb 22, 2011 2:54 PM EST reply actions  

Xavier is a good pick

They are playing really well right now. Right on cue for them. The Muskies always seem to be playing their best come March.

by maysvilleblue on Feb 22, 2011 7:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Any major college team

“Can win it all” All it takes is shoot well every night,play defense every night,stay out of foul trouble and get all the lucky bounces. That is the recipe for success-)

by oldcat73 on Feb 22, 2011 3:01 PM EST reply actions  

Yes, to all that, with one huge issue -- foul trouble.

Get one of our six starters (and we all know we have six) in foul trouble, and we’re in trouble. Big trouble.

We can’t withstand foul trouble, because we only have six great players.

I love the guys, love the effort, love the way they’ve come together as a team. If we just had one more guy who got good playing time and could come in and do more than not make mistakes…. I’d say we could, of course, win it all.

by TeresainSC on Feb 22, 2011 3:52 PM EST reply actions  

On foul problems.....

I’m holding out hope that if one of the starters fouls out, maybe someone will step up. You know one of those once in a lifetime moments. Hey it could happen. Until we lose in the tournament, to me were winning it all baby.
     
!!!GO BIG BLUE!!!

by phatcatfan on Feb 22, 2011 8:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

It'll be the 2nd game in each of the rounds that'll give us trouble

The 1st game we’ll be rested, the next night we’ll still have a short bench against??? Teams will be deeper and deeper the deeper you get into it.

by sweasyf on Feb 22, 2011 6:44 PM EST reply actions  

Thomas

I admire your confidence in this year’s team. I’d like to jump on that train, but I just can’t make it. While I will agree that they CAN be FF or even NC team, ANY team CAN win it all, what’s the odds? Personally, I see maybe sweet 16. Anything beyond that would be overachieving. I thought they played their best bball in Maui and OOC in general. The SEC has shown them to be good but not THAT good. I don’t see the ‘light’ suddenly coming on and this team becoming giantkillers.

But, my heart and soul will be with them every game. GO CATS!!!!!!!!!

by bigbill992001 on Feb 22, 2011 7:26 PM EST reply actions  

Only two of your sleepers

I think have much of a chance — Purdue and Wisconsin.

That said, there aren’t many experienced teams anymore. That adds to parity. Kansas is doing so well this year because of the number of players they have back. NCAA tourney should be interesting and there should be a number of “upsets.” I think the Cats are S16; anything more is gravy.

by jdogblue on Feb 22, 2011 7:29 PM EST reply actions  

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