2011-12 College Basketball Rankings: Poll Analysis for 12/26/2011

by Glenn Logan on Dec 27, 2011 10:31 AM EST in College Basketball

Examining the AP and Coaches poll. (via hlkljgk)

Yesterday's AP and Coaches polls had few surprises, but that's to be expected at this time of year when teams are cleaning up the last of their out-of-conference schedule. By now, most teams have played their marquee games for their non-con and are preparing for the grind of league play.

Two notable, but by no means exclusive, exceptions are the Louisville Cardinals and Kentucky Wildcats. Louisville has two very challenging games this week, one Big East contest at home in the Chicken Ranch and then, of course, the annual clash with Kentucky in Rupp Arena. No wonder Traitor Rick is so snappish these days.

After the jump, I have consolidated the AP and Coaches poll, and prepared an analysis for your edification.

Poll Data

AP Poll			Coaches Poll								Schedule Strength
*Rnk*	*Prev*	*Change*	*Rnk*	*Prev*	*Change*	*Team*	*Wins*	*Losses*	*Votes*	*1st*	*SOS*	*Rnk*	*Proj*	*Rnk*	*Conference*
1	1	0	1	1	0	Syracuse	13	0	1611	54	0.6014	12	0.6521	2	Big East
2	2	0	2	2	0	Ohio State	12	1	1507	5	0.5135	132	0.6290	14	Big Ten
3	3	0	3	3	0	Kentucky	11	1	1480	4	0.5051	148	0.5710	76	SEC
4	4	0	4	4	0	Louisville	12	0	1386	2	0.5365	82	0.6319	12	Big East
5	5	0	6	6	0	North Carolina	11	2	1366	0	0.5482	66	0.5985	38	ACC
6	6	0	7	7	0	Baylor	12	0	1299	0	0.5130	134	0.6158	25	Big 12
7	7	0	5	5	0	Duke	10	1	1281	0	0.5850	25	0.6157	26	ACC
8	9	1	8	8	0	Missouri	12	0	1149	0	0.4410	296	0.5772	62	Big 12
9	8	-1	9	9	0	Connecticut	10	1	1143	0	0.5816	30	0.6453	3	Big East
10	11	1	10	12	2	Florida	10	2	1050	0	0.5161	122	0.5750	70	SEC
11	13	2	11	14	3	Wisconsin	11	2	898	0	0.5448	69	0.6350	8	Big Ten
12	16	4	12	16	4	Georgetown	10	1	851	0	0.4856	202	0.6110	29	Big East
13	17	4	15	18	3	Indiana	12	0	820	0	0.4398	299	0.5914	45	Big Ten
14	10	-4	13	10	-3	Marquette	11	1	775	0	0.5335	90	0.6205	21	Big East
15	18	3	14	17	3	Mississippi St.	12	1	718	0	0.4817	212	0.5794	59	SEC
16	19	3	17	20	3	Michigan State	11	2	613	0	0.5620	47	0.6584	1	Big Ten
17	12	-5	18	11	-7	Kansas	8	3	548	0	0.5886	21	0.6281	16	Big 12
18	20	2	16	19	3	Michigan	10	2	504	0	0.5138	130	0.6396	5	Big Ten
19	21	2	20	23	3	UNLV	13	2	473	0	0.5612	49	0.5903	46	Mountain West
20	22	2	21	22	1	Murray State	13	0	342	0	0.5040	151	0.4263	280	Ohio Valley
21	23	2	19	21	2	Creighton	10	1	254	0	0.5265	103	0.5562	90	Missouri Valley
22	15	-7	22	13	-9	Pittsburgh	11	2	238	0	0.4997	168	0.6054	34	Big East
23	24	1	24	New	New	Virginia	10	1	214	0	0.4968	176	0.5644	85	ACC
24	New	New	23	25	2	Harvard	10	1	121	0	0.4918	194	0.4723	185	Ivy League
25	New	New	Unr	Unr	-	San Diego State	11	2	119	0	0.5032	153	0.5649	83	Mountain West
Unr	Unr	-	25	New	New	Kansas St	10	1	45	0	0.5297	96	0.6093	30	Big 12

Here are my comments about the teams highlighted above:

Syracuse will not be tested again until January 7th vs. Marquette.
Ohio St. faces Indiana in Bloomington on Saturday. Big test for both teams.
Louisville faces the Georgetown Hoyas on Wednesday and Kentucky on Saturday. If they are as overranked as I think, it will surely show up this week. Otherwise, you have to hand it to them.
Two words for having Duke ranked ahead of the North Carolina Tar Heels: In. Sane. Okay, that's one word, but you get the idea.
The Baylor Bears are still unconvincing at this level, but they have a chance to change my mind versus Mississippi St. on Wednesday.
Jim Calhoun's fib to the NCAA finally comes home to roost, and he will be forced to sit out arguably the easiest three-game stretch in UConn's remaining season.
Cupcake schedule for Indiana so far turns into a murderer's row starting on Wednesday.
Will Marquette be responsible for lifting up two SEC teams? They play Vanderbilt on Thursday.
The Kansas Jayhawks were overranked at 11. This is about right for them.
Michigan gets one more cupcake, and then it gets difficult.
Pittsburgh loss to Wagner looks like a bad omen for Big East play to me.

Poll analysis by conference:

Conference
Data	ACC	Big 12	Big East	Big Ten	Ivy League	Missouri Valley	Mountain West	Ohio Valley	SEC
Count - Conference	3	4	6	5	1	1	2	1	3
Average - SOS	0.54	0.52	0.54	0.51	0.49	0.53	0.53	0.50	0.50
Average - Proj	0.59	0.61	0.63	0.63	0.47	0.56	0.58	0.43	0.58
Average - Wins	10.33	10.50	11.17	11.20	10.00	10.00	12.00	13.00	11.00
Average - Losses	1.33	1.00	0.83	1.40	1.00	1.00	2.00	0.00	1.33

The Big East continues to lead the way with six ranked teams between the two polls.The Big Ten is a close second with five, and the Big 12 has four to lead the top three.
The Pac-12 is the only BCS conference not represented in the poll at all. How far have they fallen, collectively?
The SEC has the weakest average strength of schedule of all the BCS conferences in the poll.

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Comments

UofL may be overrated or they may not be, ultimately time will tell....

I think it would not be wise to underestimate them when they play the Cats. I am confident UK can and will beat the Cards but I am going to be tempered and expect a hard fought battle that (with a little bad luck) could go either way.

Slower Traffic Keep Right!

by SevenRings on Dec 27, 2011 11:09 AM EST reply actions

THREES!

It depends on that!!!!!!

Go CATTTTTTTTTTTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by oilliecat on Dec 27, 2011 11:14 AM EST reply actions

Glenn:

another good job. If we can hold them to 5 or 6 threes, a piece of cake!

Go CATTTTTTTTTTTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by oilliecat on Dec 27, 2011 11:18 AM EST reply actions

We have to hit some, too.

Some games we don’t.

by Wheatgerm on Dec 27, 2011 8:14 PM EST up reply actions

The Cards play hard.

And Siva is fearless.

They over-play on defense; we need to make them pay with dunks.

by bob in bg on Dec 27, 2011 1:01 PM EST reply actions

Polls In A Word: Overrated

Pick a team, any team, and a good argument can be made, I believe, that at this stage it is overrated: stacked home schedules, mismatches, lineup experiments, injuries, suspensions, second semester eligibility — add it up and you have chaos theory. If I were compelled to pick a top team it would be OSU because if Sullinger had been available for KU they would be undefeated and they are the only team without a well defined weakness. As for Cats, IMO, they haven’t consistently played well enough or hard enough to deserve a #3, or top 5 for that matter, ranking. UL will provide a bit of insight but it’s in Rupp so on-the-road in SEC will be a better criterion.

"In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

by Wild Weasel on Dec 27, 2011 1:27 PM EST reply actions

I'm in Columbus and have caught all but 1 or OSU game's (SC-Upstate)

I would also place them at 1.

by mrmondaynite on Dec 27, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions

*1 of OSU's games

not “1 or OSU game’s”

by mrmondaynite on Dec 27, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions

Once conference play begins...

you usually see which teams are overated. I haven’t seen much of Syracuse but I know the media loves to jump on their bandwagon year after year for whatever reason. Same for Duke and I stand by my comments earlier in the season that even UNC is overated. I’m not sure we will know about UL being overated just because they are playing Georgetown and UK. The Hoyas are another team usually overhyped by the media and you know the game Saturday will be a war so I’m not sure what the outcome will mean as far as the Cards go. No question they are overated IMO but I think they are a solid team. To me OSU is the best team out there without question but by the end of the year the Cats will be right with them.

by maysvilleblue on Dec 27, 2011 2:49 PM EST reply actions

Agree about OSU.

Possibly best big man and probably best point guard plus a guy or two who can shoot. Good combination!

"The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena . . .who spends himself for a worthy cause . . ."

by oldcat'69 on Dec 27, 2011 5:07 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Syracuse SOS

Can anyone explain to me how Syracuse’s SOS is so high at this point. They’ve played only one away game at NCSt and two in MSG. The rest have been at home. The only good team they have played is Florida. I’m mystified.

by jdogblue on Dec 27, 2011 5:50 PM EST reply actions

Well, because they've only played two teams >=200

UK, for example, has played 5. Also, Stanford and Virginia Tech are also pretty good.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Glenn Logan on Dec 27, 2011 8:38 PM EST up reply actions

Indiana

will fall out of the top 25 before its all said and done. One man’s opinion.

God Bless Our Troops............Especially Our Snipers!

by bigbill992001 on Dec 27, 2011 5:55 PM EST reply actions

I'll be very curious as to how the Miss. State vs Baylor game turns out

If State wins then I believe they’ll be our biggest competition for the SEC title. Moultrie is an excellent center or PF – the best in the league at this point in time.

A man is nothing more than a summation of his scars!

by KansasUKCat on Dec 27, 2011 6:03 PM EST reply actions