Penn St. Nittany Lions @ Kentucky Wildcats (2): Pregame
by Glenn Logan on Nov 18, 2011 7:01 PM EST
in Kentucky Wildcats Basketball
Email
PrintTomorrow at noon the Penn St. Nittany Lions and the Kentucky Wildcats square off in Mohegan Sun Arena in the Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament tomorrow at noon. As luck (bad luck, by my lights) would have it, that is also roughly the time that the Wildcats football team kicks it off against the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens.
A brief administrative note: We will be providing open threads for both games. Just use one browser tab for one and one browser tab for the other. I will once again be gambling my hard-earned money away at Churchill Downs tomorrow (my wife's plans) so I won't see either game. But I will be with you all in spirit. Ken will have the pregame for the football team up later this evening.
The Penn St. basketball team has a new coach this year, who came over from Boston University after Ed DeChellis took the job and the U.S. Naval Academy last May. DeChellis had done a very good job with PSU, getting them to the NCAA tournament last year, where they lost in the second round to Temple in a nail-biter, 66-64.
So far, this is what the Nittany Lions have done:
| Rank and Records | PSU | UK |
| RPI | #88 | #51 |
| Strength of Schedule | #183 | #129 |
| Overall | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Home | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| Away | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Top 25 | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| RPI Top 50 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Neurtral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
Roster
Player Analysis
Tim Frazier and Billy Oliver are expected to lead the team this year as juniors and will be the primary scoring options. The Nittany Lions lost 80% of their scoring and almost 70% of their rebounding to graduation, so this year is expected to be somewhat of a rebuilding year for them.
Tim Frazier is the only returning starter on the team, and so far has been living up to expectations. Freshman Trey Lewis is currently the most dangerous threat from 3-point range, shooting 46% so far this year. Cameron Woodyard is also a dangerous 3-point shooter. Matt Glover is a glue guy coming off the bench and currently sees starter's minutes.
The Four Factors to Winning
Kentucky is plainly the better shooting team, but the Nittany Lions compare favorably in the other three stats, particularly in offensive rebounding percentage. At this point in the season, these stats don't mean much, so take them with a grain of salt. With that said, UK shoots so well because so many of their points have been either shots from above the rim, layups in transition, or wide-open 3-point shots.
Penn St. figures to get very few of the first two against Kentucky, and good three point shooting will probably not save them. Long rebounds will result in highlight-reel dunks for Kentucky, as they are by far the longer, faster, and more athletic team, not to mention more talented.
Kentucky could block 15 shots against PSU, and I'd be surprised if they didn't have 10.
Conclusion
Penn St. is a nice team in a rebuilding mode. They have feasted on high-calorie opponents so far like most of the rest of college basketball, and that is for a reason -- they are trying to gain confidence and learn how to win as a team.
But their unbeaten streak comes to an end Saturday afternoon. Unless Kentucky simply fails to do anything to an acceptable level, the odds of the Nittany Lions pulling the upset on a neutral court against a team like Kentucky are mid-single digits at best.
Calipari will be looking to improve the glaring flaws we all saw out of UK in the game against Kansas -- breaking off plays, throwing the ball to the open opponent, mishandling the ball on the break and defending with a cape instead of an attitude. Expect Coach Cal to have the team motivated but controlled in this game, and if they execute with even marginal sharpness, this game could easily be over by halftime, or with double-digit minutes left in the second half at worst.
Enjoy the game tomorrow.
32 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
CBS Sports has our SOS as 90 and our RPI as 33
I’m sure some of those sites that are pay per view would have slightly different numbers.
A man is nothing more than a summation of his scars!
This is what Statsheet has.
Ken Pomeroy’s is different as well, he has our SOS at like 175.
This early in the season, I don’t pay it too much mind.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
I know it doesn't matter but we did play the
13th ranked team in the country is why I was surprised.
Teams have to get "connected..."
Basically have to get enough experience – maybe 8 or 10 games into the season – before these numbers mean much. My advice is don’t gamble kids, but if you do don’t make your picks based on these numbers just yet.
Kentucky Basketball - The Reason for Living
don't you have a lawn to go stand on?
or a van to flip?
by CornDogScandal on Nov 19, 2011 3:35 AM EST up reply actions
Not cool, Corndog.
I agree some bad things were done, and some folks flipped out, but cooler heads have prevailed of late. 99% of Penn Staters are excellent people and fans. Like Chris. Can’t imagine what this would be like if it happened at Kentucky and I don’t want to. Don’t wish this on anyone.
Kentucky Basketball - The Reason for Living
by GriffinRC on Nov 19, 2011 8:22 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
+1
I wish I could give it +10.
To all — Taking shots at Penn State fans vis-a-vis the scandal there will not be tolerated in this thread, or any others on A Sea of Blue.
Please give appropriate respect to their fans, who had nothing to do with the unfortunate circumstances. For those new to A Sea of Blue, please read the community guidelines before making comments.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
A tip of the hat, Glenn
This is why I keep coming back and why I recommend this site first to anyone who who wants to know about Kentucky Sports. When it comes to sports, all viewpoints are welcome and desired as long as the conversation is civilized. Glenn and JL and Ken and any of the others who work this site do a great job keeping things civil.
Thanks
by sweasyf on Nov 19, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Welcome, Chris.
It’s big of you to come over and say hello. Good luck on the game – I know we are heavily favored and this is a rebuilding year for you guys – but you never know. There is a lot of good experience both teams can get out of this game. You just hope to keeping improving and moving forward.
Kentucky Basketball - The Reason for Living
Welcome.
Thanks for coming by. We welcome you here and hope for a good game from both sides.
Obviously, we’ll be disappointed if the game is close, but that isn’t a knock against PSU, we know your players are going to compete, and Penn St. Basketball has been on the rise the last few years, and I hope it continues under Chambers. He had a solid record at BU and I think he’ll do good things at State college.
All the best today.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
Yeah - we wish you much better luck against Ohio State today
than we do against us! I will try not to think about football at all during the basketball game … while KY plays Georgia on the gridiron.
Kentucky Basketball - The Reason for Living
Yes he is, and PSU never properly appreciated him
He can say all day that he didn’t leave PSU because he wasn’t appreciated, but I don’t believe him. The program he took over at PSU was in worse shape than maybe any BCS-league program ever, and in 8 years took it to two NIT berths, an NIT title, and an NCAA berth. Not exactly Kentucky level success, but considering where the program was when he got there, better than could reasonably be expected. Before he left, he had arguably the best recruiting class in PSU history coming in.
He wanted a contract extension (and IMO, more than deserved it) and didn’t get it, 4 days later he’s at Navy.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Ohio State.
With a good run and
all the seniors graduating he apparently knew he was going to get his best deal at that point. Smart from a business sense.
Kentucky Basketball - The Reason for Living
If it hadn't been for the loss to Maine and the Maryland game, I suspect he would have gotten it
The Maryland game was just one of those games. PSU took more good shots and played better basketball, but every piece of trash Maryland chucked in the general direction of the rim went in and the exact opposite was the case for PSU. Not the type of game you ever expect to have on your home court.
The Maine game? Who knows.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Ohio State.
He was.
I was sorry to see him leave PSU. He did a great job with that team last year and very nearly got them to a Sweet Sixteen.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
ESPN3.com coverage
Who wants to bet that the Penn St. football scandal comes up 100 times during the ESPN3.com broadcast. I guess there is something worse than having to listen to Dick Vitale talk about how good North Carolina is for 40 minutes of basketball.
The dozens of PSU basketball fans all knew this would be a rebuilding year
and it probably will be. Thus far the team has been a little bit better than we’ve probably expected, but it’s still a borderline NIT team at best.
What’s really troubling to us about this team so far has been the incredibly low free throw rate and high number of 3 point shots. They’re just not aggressive going toward the rim.
That type of game today will either keep this game closer than it should be or have it be over by halftime. If PSU shoots over 50% from beyond the arc, and I have no reason to suspect that they will, this game could be interesting. If not, it will be ugly and it will be ugly fast.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Ohio State.
"The dozens .."
Heh. Love it.
Penn St. has talent, but you’re right about their lack of attack on offense. UK’s 3-point defense so far has been better than it was last year at this point, although that means little after two games.
Great comment.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
If there's a glimmer of hope to be solidly above .500 on the year
It’s that the Big Ten in general is a lot like the SEC last year: very young. Every team that made the NCAA tournament or NIT last year lost a ton of key parts. Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan are the only ones who have significant pieces returning, and all 3 of those teams lost draft picks. Indiana, Iowa, and Nebraska have a lot back, but they all stunk last year. So there’s a chance that this team could do well enough in the non-con and then get 5 or 6 wins in Big Ten play and be 2 or 3 games above .500 on Selection Sunday, but anyone expecting more than that is probably crazy.
Also, Tim Frazier. He’s a very solid distributing PG. Probably too small to ever be an NBA player, but there are very few college PGs I would trade him for in this system. He’ll be fun to watch and will test Kentucky’s guards defensively. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that he’s in the top 5 PGs Kentucky will face this year.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Ohio State.
Penn St. should be a lot better next year.
They have some solid juniors and talented freshmen who just need some seasoning. They have decent size, but need a bit more talent in their bigs.
It’s very tough to recruit nationally ranked players at Penn St. for basketball, but DeChellis proved that he could mold solid but unspectacular D-I talent into an NCAA team. I see no reason Chambers can’t do the same. He Got the BU Terriers to the Big Dance last year, and if he can do that with them, you have to think he can keep PSU competitive in the Big Ten, even though that is a much tougher league.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
We'll see what kind of team PSU is by the end of this year
I’m hoping that by the end of this year PSU will be a team that strikes fear into the hearts of the best teams in the Big Ten, even if they’re not winning. If that’s the case, then yes, my hopes for a solid NCAA run next season will be high.
The entire rotation should return, with the possible exception of Billy Oliver, who has his moments but is at best an acceptable role player. He’ll have 2 years of eligibility left after this year but should graduate this year; he was a 3rd year freshman last year due to a red shirt and an injury.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Ohio State.
Mississippi State Wins Tournament
I know Aridzona is not as good this year as they will be next year, but props to Miss St for winning the Coaches vs. Cancer Tournament. Helps out the SEC overall. Much better than a loss to someone like Elon (sp?). Looks like Alabama is in the Puerto Rico finals against Purdue (I have to pull for Purdue there – my alma matter).
Kentucky Basketball - The Reason for Living
I have MSU picked to go to the tournament this year.
Stansbury has all the talent he needs.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
Sorry, but ...
… Alabama basketball is a favorite of mine since Grant took over.
Roll, Tide! :-)
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
I used to live in Richmond, VA where I followed some bball.
Grant coached at VCU for a while – he is a very good young coach and I’ve got a lot of respect for him. He will make Alabama a very dangerous team. He’ll use the Purdue loss to get better…!
Kentucky Basketball - The Reason for Living
Haha!
Purdue is an outstanding team. I wish I could watch the game, but it’s the ponies for me today!
Go, baby, go!
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
Miss State didn't just beat UA but did so convincingly - if they continue to play as well in the SEC they will be a dangerous team
This transfer kid Moutrie 6’11" was the real deal yesterday – a hell of a player.
A man is nothing more than a summation of his scars!
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Community Guidelines
[UPDATED 01/18/2012]
Related FanPosts on A Sea Of Blue
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
