FanPost

Terrence Jones: Projecting Year 2

Over the summer I projected the stats for UK's freshmen using the past performance of similarly rated recruits.  Now I'm back with a similar projection for Terrence Jones.  Join me after the jump for a brief look at how recent top rated power forward recruits have improved between their freshmen and sophomore seasons.

 

First, how did I pick the players I used?  Not particularly scientifically.  All the players listed below were ranked among the Top 6 PF's for their class on espn.com's recruiting rankings and they all returned for their sophomore seasons.  Since Terrence Jones played significant minutes last year, I looked for players who did not play significantly more minutes in their sophomore years than they had in their first years.  I want players whose statistical improvement was due to improvement in actual ability rather than inflation in minutes per game.  I had to sadly say goodbye to John Henson, Tyler Zeller, and Gani Lawal for this reason.  Following those cuts, I was left with Dante Taylor, JaMychal Green, Greg Monroe, Blake Griffin, and everyone's favorite Houston Rocket, Patrick Patterson.  Here's the stats for Year 1:

 

YEAR 1
Name MPG PPG Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals FG%
Terrence Jones 31.5 15.66 8.8 1.6 1.9 1.1 44.2
Dante Taylor 13.9 4.1 3.7 0.1 0.6 0.4 58.4
JaMychal Green 24.8 10.3 7.6 0.8 1.7 0.9 53.8
Greg Monroe 30.9 12.7 6.5 2.5 1.5 1.8 57.2
Patrick Patterson 35.7 16.4 7.7 1.7 1.2 0.8 57.4
Blake Griffin 28.4 14.7 9.1 1.8 0.8 1 56.8
Average 27.53333 12.31 7.233333 1.416667 1.283333 1 54.63333

 

As you can see, they were all pretty good.  Even Dante Taylor had an excellent FG%.  Stats for Year 2 follow.

 

YEAR 2
Name MPG PPG Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals FG%
Terrence Jones TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
Dante Taylor 15.1 5.1 4.5 0.33 0.67 0.12 61.6
JaMychal Green 27 14.1 7.2 1.07 1.6 0.9 49.5
Greg Monroe 34.2 16.1 9.6 3.8 1.5 1.2 52.5
Patrick Patterson 33.7 17.9 9.3 1.9 2.1 0.6 60.3
Blake Griffin 33.3 22.7 14.4 2.3 1.2 1.1 65.4
Average 28.66 15.18 9 1.88 1.414 0.784 57.86
Difference 1.1 2.87 1.77 0.46 0.13 0.22 3.23
% Improvement 4 23 24 3.2 1 2.2 6

 

Difference is the raw improvement in the average performance Year 2 over the average performance Year 1 for each particular stat.  % Improvement is the percent improvement over the Year 1 stats.  On average, there was a significant improvement in PPG and Rebounds, with slight improvements in the other categories.

With that preview, let's get to the projection for Terrence's sophomore year.  I simply applied the average percent improvement to Terrence's freshman stats.

 

Name MPG PPG Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals FG%
Terrence Jones 32.76 19.26 10.9 1.65 1.92 1.12 46.85

 

Subjectively, I think everything there looks pretty good, with one major caveat.  I fully believe Terrence could average 19 PPG, but he'll have to shoot better than 47% to do so.  I suspect he will not get enough shots to score so many points while shooting under 50%.  He also might not average 33 MPG, given UK's added depth (and also because many of the non-conference games could be bigger blowouts than in Cal's first 2 years).  Of course, Terrence could also pull a junior-year Patrick Patterson in which he gets better but has lesser stats due to the increased talent around him.  I can't wait to find out.

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