Kentucky Wildcats Basketball: 2011 Pre-Season Coaches Poll Dissected
by Glenn Logan on Oct 20, 2011 6:11 PM EDT
in College Basketball
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PrintAs y'all no doubt know by now (and if you didn't, now you do), the pre-season coaches poll for basketball is out today. There were really no huge surprises and it's hard to take issue with too much of what came out of it, but most of us will probably have nit-picks with it.
There don't appear to be any major slights, though. All in all, it mostly makes sense, even though I think a couple of teams that are traditionally good got overrated somewhat significantly. Kentucky wound up second, as you would expect, but by a rather wider margin than I would have expected.
Analysis and commentary follows the jump.
Here are my analysis of the rankings. A blank comment suggests that the ranking seems reasonable to me. The others, if I commented negatively, were adjusted under "my rank."
| Rank | My Rank | Team (first-place votes) | 2010 Record | Points | 2010-11 Final Ranking | Comments |
| 1 | 1 | North Carolina (30) | 29-8 | 774 | 8 | They deserve to be here for now. |
| 2 | 2 | Kentucky (1) | 29-9 | 721 | 3 | Only one vote? Really? That's a bit of a shock to me. |
| 3 | 3 | Ohio State | 34-3 | 702 | 5 | |
| 4 | 4 | Connecticut | 32-9 | 655 | 1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Syracuse | 27-8 | 649 | 18 | |
| 6 | 10 | Duke | 32-5 | 635 | 7 | I find this dubious. Duke lost their three leading scorers last year, two seniors and Kyrie Iving. They have one obvious impact player coming in in Rivers. They may be top ten, but barely. |
| 7 | 6 | Vanderbilt | 23-11 | 567 | NR | Well deserved. Have they ever been this high before pre-season? |
| 8 | 12 | Louisville | 25-10 | 514 | 22 | Overrated. This team has no business in the top ten based on their personnel. |
| 9 | 8 | Memphis | 25-10 | 482 | NR | |
| 10 | 14 | Florida | 29-8 | 474 | 10 | I think they are too high as well. Zero quality depth in the front court. |
| 11 | 9 | Pittsburgh | 28-6 | 471 | 12 | With Khem Birch joining Gibbs and Robinson along with solid depth, this team should be top ten. |
| 12 | 7 | Baylor | 18-13 | 358 | NR | I think Baylor should be top ten. Dunn's loss is addition by subtraction, and Perry Jones is all that. |
| 13 | 15 | Kansas | 35-3 | 331 | 4 | Artificially high, like Duke. They lost too much and bring in too little to be here. |
| 14 | 17 | Wisconsin | 25-9 | 313 | 15 | Too high for me, lost too much. |
| 15 | 13 | Xavier | 24-8 | 277 | NR | With the addition of Vandy transfer Andre Walker, I would have them higher. |
| 16 | 11 | Arizona | 30-8 | 269 | 9 | Their only major loss was Williams and they bring in two impact freshman. This is too low. They should be bumping up against the top ten. |
| 17 | 16 | Alabama | 24-11 | 194 | NR | |
| 18 | 18 | Michigan | 21-14 | 187 | NR | |
| 19 | 19 | Texas A&M | 24-9 | 161 | NR | |
| 20 | 20 | UCLA | 23-11 | 147 | NR | |
| 21 | 21 | Marquette | 22-15 | 145 | 20 | |
| 22 | 22 | Cincinnati | 26-9 | 141 | NR | |
| 23 | 23 | Gonzaga | 25-10 | 125 | NR | |
| 24 | NR | California | 18-15 | 111 | NR | Not buying. |
| 25 | 25 | Missouri | 23-11 | 110 | NR | |
| NR | 24 | Michigan State | 19-15 | N/A | NR | This team will be far better than people think. |
So what do you think? Do you agree with the coaches, or do you have issues as well?
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Comments
There are definitely some traditional powers being ranked on name here.
Especially Kansas. The Morris twins are gone. Selby isn’t there…though he was a problem child, presumably he might have played to his potential (elite? Cal recruited him heavily) if he played a full, focused season. Thomas Robinson, to me, is one of the most overrated players in recent memory. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, those 3 freshmen (one was a 4*, I believe) were deemed ineligible. That leaves…Brady Morningstar? Isn’t Morningstar 35 by now? I would not be surprised if UK blew this team out.
Duke, I have less of a problem with. Rivers is, undoubtedly the only “impact player,” but they have 4 other pretty solid guys (all 4*s, all top 100 in the nation) coming in, including Alex Murphy (UK showed interest early), and Marshall Plumlee (6’11’’). Add those pieces to Seth Curry and the 2 other Plumlees, and Duke is still 2nd in the ACC. You know I hate ‘em, but they’re still top 10. I think we’ll know how good they are when they play OSU in Columbus.
Louisville? Don’t even get me started.
Heh.
Louisville will be good.
Not top ten good, but good.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Glenn Logan on Oct 20, 2011 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Morningstar is gone
Besides Robinson, it leaves KU with Tyshawn Taylor among people who played significant minutes. At least we get them early so we get the PR benefit of their artificially high rank.
They will get better.
But it’s easy to argue they belong outside the top 15, even though I didn’t go quite that far.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
Duke automatically should be lower, just because. '-)
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
by a2d2 on Oct 20, 2011 6:54 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
+1
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Glenn Logan on Oct 20, 2011 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
6-10 don't suit my palate. My gut says they are all
about 4-5 places too high, maybe more. UL is lucky to be top 20, Duke got a rep ranking, and they know it.
I am now and shall forever be the Cat in The Hat, The Artist Formerly Known As ABC!!!
by Greg Alan Edwards on Oct 20, 2011 7:23 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Experience Trumps Talent
That basically explains Heels over Cats large disparity. Top 5 then a drop off. Rest is pretty much a guess.
Practice report: Day off pays dividends.
"In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act." - George Orwell
I am going to enjoy seeing Cal change that old adage......
I am now and shall forever be the Cat in The Hat, The Artist Formerly Known As ABC!!!
by Greg Alan Edwards on Oct 20, 2011 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions
arizona
arizona also lost momo jones, their starting PG last year
Yes.
I forgot about that, good point.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Glenn Logan on Oct 20, 2011 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the top 5 is pretty solid...
I am not sure about the rest. Duke could be good, but I am not, and never have been sold on the Plumlee’s. I just don’t think you can win big, when all you have is a bunch of guards. I think UL could be good, but with the way UL’s recruits end up ineligible and injured, who knows. Not sold on KU this year either.
The early returns are that Miles Plumlee is playing extemely well.
Still, that’s just not enough firepower for that ranking.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
Vandy may take some lumps till they get Ezeli back from suspension
They play Xavier at the barn on the 11/22 without him. This may be a really good tight game because of him sitting.
On 12/2 they play the Cards at Yum’ with this being Ezeli’s first game in action – he’ll probably be jacked for this game much to the delight of Pitino and company.
A man is nothing more than a summation of his scars!
Their early schedule isn't that hard.
They may drop a game before he gets back, but I’d be surprised if they lose more than one.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
The one (ranking) that matters....
will come out in early March. All this amounts to is specualtion..yet, that is what we tend to thrive upon!! Count on Duke getting a favorable seeding no matter how they navigate through the season..personally, I hope they are the two seed in our bracket..Kansas will be a lot like UK last year (albeit less talented) due to a short bench. If they stay healthy and avoid foul trouble, they can be a factor late. UCONN scares me..maybe because they had our number last year. UNC is good but we will be better in March..
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