A brief look ahead
by finkgolf on Jan 27, 2011 5:49 PM EST
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PrintIt seems like a slow week so I thought I would throw a topic out and get your thoughts. Last year we saw a record exodus of UK players into the NBA. Then Cal, true to his record, refilled the talent pool. Halfway through this season we have seen both the promise and youth of the incoming class. My mind started to wonder. We know that we have some great young talent coming in next year. The question is how much of our talent this year will still be here next year? Also, what is the prognosis for that Wildcat team?
My thoughts after the break.
Let’s start with the obvious. We only have one senior, Josh Harrellson. Losing Josh will make our void in the middle bigger. While he isn’t a great offensive threat, he gets us offense by rebounding. We also know the incoming freshmen (11-12) are very talented! What else do you expect from Cal? However, none of the incoming freshmen are traditional "big men" ( Kyle Wiltjer & Anthony Davis are ~6’10, ~210). While we get the #1 PF, #1 SF, #1 PG and #5PF, none of them will replace what Harrellson does, and Eloy Vargas is still a project. I don’t think this dooms us, though, since the incoming class seems to be the sort of athletes/players well suited for the DDMO. Regardless of their size, they are extremely talented and will be able to make an impact.
The real question is, does Lamb, Knight, and/or Jones stay? There is a lot of season left, so this is just speculation, but I thought the conversation could be interesting. At this point, I am not sure what their NBA stock is worth, but I think the most likely to go is Jones, then Lamb, then Knight. Jones has all of the talent and size for the next level, but he has had some growing pains in terms of consistency. However, the draft is about potential and I think he has the most. Lamb’s scoring ability has exceeded his expectations, but he is a little slight of frame and may have trouble guarding NBA sized guards. Knight has played well for a freshman PG and shot the ball well and with range, but he also needs to develop more physically to be on par with NBA guards.
In a perfect world everyone would come back and I think we would be a real threat to go deep into the big dance. I’m not sure how realistic that is, but I think this class isn’t as likely to flee to the NBA as last year’s. Just for your edification, I am not writing this because I want to look passed this season. I am enjoying this group and watching their maturation (even despite the losses). It just hit me that their maturation may include more than one season in college. That brought a big smile to my face. What are your thoughts on who may stay, who may go, and what we might look like next year at this time?
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Big Men
We just need some warm bodies there. We could have signed a couple this year if they just woulda pulled the trigger. As far as the guys NBA prospects, if there is a lock out, I think most will stay. I hope they have kept their academics up, and have not assume they would be drafted….
"all the way"
I watched video of Davis
over on KSR today. He plays like a guard around the perimeter. He was very effective against high school competition of 6-2 guys. He will need to develop post moves to be effective against college interior guys. I’m not saying he can’t; I’m saying he still needs to.
As for Wiltjer, I’m hoping he is more of a traditional power forward who can play in the post, even though I know he can shoot from distance. I haven’t seen any film on him.
I’m skeptical about any lockout. I still think the NBA will think hard about baseball’s lockout and its results. That said, I expect Jones to go. Knight may stay, and I haven’t seen any real interest in Lamb by the NBA as of now.
I agree with you,
but Davis made a big jump over the summer playing against AAU talent. I`m excited about this years team, but would love to have them all back for next year. I wouldn`t be surprised if J. Hood wasn`t thinking transfer. I would hate to see him go, but would love to see him play more, even if its for someone else.
Big guys .... on video ....
I’m reserving my judgement … When we learned we had signed Vargas, I was as excited as the next UK fan …. check out his Youtube video … steals, blocks, low post up and under moves and a good handle in the open floor to name a few of his talents … now look at him. What happened? It’s a big jump from playing with inferior talent to playing against top D1 college competition. I hope Vargas can turn his season around (we sure need it).
Glad you posted that link - interesting to see him play against those smaller players
A man is nothing more than a summation of his scars!
NBA lockout
The NBA had a lockout and shortened 50 game season about 10 yes ago. It didn’t have nearly the effect on the sport that baseballs did. it’s coming folks. The union and players are way too far apart on the issues.
DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!
by davw83 on Jan 27, 2011 11:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Another question to ask
Between Lamb, Knight, and Jones which player would be most important to have stay around for next year when it comes to winning a national title?
Personally I think it’s Knight because he gives Cal something he’s never had before – an elite sophomore guard to run the offense. While Jones is arguably the best player of the three, I think it would be easier to get guys to step into his place. When you consider how much further along the team could be without needing to bring a new PG up to speed, you start to wonder how well the offense could really run.
Having said all that, it would certainly be nice if all 3 guys stuck around, but I don’t expect it to happen.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
I see only Jones going at this point ...
IMO Knight and Lamb need another year to develop. That being said, it would give Cal a chance to bring Teague along a good pace. Imagine a backcourt of Lamb and Knight with Teague coming off the bench. Knight can play the two or the one – kind of like having Wall and Bledsoe on the floor at the same time two point guards. I don’t look for Hood to transfer – but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vargas did … unless something changes with him. Poole I think the jury is still out on.
Can We Dream?
What if next year we have
Miller
Liggins
Jones
Lamb
Knight
Davis
Wiltjer
Gilchrist
Teaque
Daniels
Vargas
Polson
And a Post player to be named later
Brethren, be not children in understanding: howbeit in malice be ye children, but in understanding be men.
You missed the partridge in the pear tree, Lyric. ;-)
"The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena . . .who spends himself for a worthy cause . . ."
It certainly would be
like Christmas with that roster. Gifts all around!
by wildcatfaninexile on Jan 31, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
Development Key
If, as Calipari opines, this group develops near to their stated potential all 3 could go, however from observation I think that quite improbable. Thus I expect all to return. Going further out on the proverbial limb I see Teague eventually starting at the 1 with Knight at his more natural 2. From video it appears that Wiltjer’s unusually advanced post offensive repertoire will put him in starting lineup at 5. Most favorable is that Cats will go from depth challenged to depth blessed.
"I bring reason to your ears, and, in language as plain as ABC, hold up truth to your eyes." Thomas Paine, December 23, 1776
by Wild Weasel on Jan 28, 2011 12:59 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Hi Weasley, glad to see you...
Finkgolf – As you say, senior Harrellson will be gone, possibly to the Development League or Europe if he resumes his pre-conference performance. If not, he’ll be going pro in something other than sports.
Jdogblue – There may well not be a lockout. But, as we talked about last week in the thread on the Alabama loss, because the NBA draft is in late June and we won’t know if there is going to be a lockout until late July or early August, it probably won’t have a big impact on potential one-and-done players like Jones, Knight or Lamb. Draftexpress.com has Jones on the board at 8th in the 1st-round. Therefore, unless something really unexpected happens in the remainder of this season, he will go pro. Knight is ranked 20th in the first round and, because he almost certainly could improve on that ranking with a second year, will likely stay in school if he doesn’t rise in this draft. Lamb isn’t ranked in many mock drafts for this year but projects at the top of the 2nd-round for the 2012 draft and therefore will almost certainly return for his second year at Kentucky. Miller and Liggins will likewise be returning for their senior year.
I insert a caveat here. The 2011 NBA draft is seen as weak overall and, depending on what appears to be on the table and likely to become part of the final collective bargaining agreement, it might become reasonable for marginal players like Lamb, Liggins, and Miller – to say nothing about a likely middle 1st-rounder like Knight – to try their luck in this draft with the idea of begging the NCAA for forgiveness if things don’t work out. I don’t see that happening for Lamb, Liggins, and Miller as they are pretty far down the board right now but Knight’s circumstance bears watching.
Anyway, as things stand now, our backcourt will likely be returning ‘on-mass’ and will be augmented by Teague (a 6’2" 170 lbs point guard), Gilchrist (a wing at 6’6" 190 lbs) and the ‘preferred walk-on’ Twany Beckham (6’5" 195 lbs backup point guard transfer from Mississippi State). An enviable position to be in.
However, with Harrellson and Jones gone, it leaves us only Vargas from this year’s front court. From the incoming recruiting class as it’s currently constituted, Wiltjer at 6’9" 225 lbs will replace Jones at the 4 position and Davis at 6’10" 220 lbs will anchor the 2011-12 frontcourt though in Cal’s DDMO they could be interchangeable. In addition, there are now solid rumblings of Cal taking a hard look at God’s Gift Achiuwa – that’s his actual name, his father is a minister – who is a 6’9" player from Erie Community College in Buffalo, N.Y. in the vein of Eloy and other more nebulous rumors out there about potential frontcourt players. I hope so because without more big men next year’s backcourt would likely be just as thin as this season’s.
I don't know about Jones.
I think he should return, his game isn’t NBA ready, but I’m not sure he will if he is a top 5 pick as many suggest right now. I’d be surprised if any of the rest left.
I think you’re right about Teague. Knight can play either spot, even though he’s going to be a one at the next level. Moving him to the 2 would be no big deal, and would even give us the same benefit we enjoyed last year with two point guards in the lineup at the same time.
If everyone comes back, there is no doubt that Kentucky will be the odds-on favorite to win, and why not, with all that talent?
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
Any news on Trevor Lacey....
My personal opinion is that none should go. All of their draft stocks should rise with one more year of college ball. That being said, I think Jones will go, and the others will stay. I just can’t see Knight or Lamb getting much, if any, playing time at the NBA level next year.
And I really think that Knight is the most important player to return. He can play the #1 and #2 spot and will have experience running the system. So that should translate into less turnovers committed by Kinght. He would be so good in his 2nd year. I also think Lamb would blossom as well. And there is no way that Miller and Liggins should even think about going pro.
Next years’ backcourt might be thin, but they would be alot more talented. Davis and Wiltjer can really play. And I don’t think they are one and done players.
The future looks very bright for UK. A NC is coming guys!!
Illogical, but true
One would expect a player’s draft stock to improve with college experience, but that does not seem to be the way it works. Additional experience gives the pro scouts more data points, and with that, more opportunities to discover weaknesses. The pros seem to draft more on “potential” recently. The longer a player stays in college, the lower his draft stock seems to be. Example: Orton. If he had stayed at UK and his knee problems become obvious, he may never have been drafted.
Draft stock hardly ever rises once you are in lotter range (best example ever - Wallace of Syracuse, 1996)
Wallace was projected as 15-20 after his junior year. All he could then was play the post. He returns, adds range (like Patterson), lights up the 3 point line in the NCAA tourney and gets Syr to the NC game against UK. Then gets drafted like 16th. He improved and did nothing to this draft stock which was already close to the lotter range. This theory of mine is based on anecdotal references I have noticed over the years. It could be wrong. And it does not apply to folks who are not considered edge of lottery picks. Thus, Patterson could improve his stock soph to jr year. But Wallace could not.
Jones will go unless he is scared to by the lockout risk.
Knight likely returns b/c (I think) he won’t be in the lottery range, even if he is possible first round, and doesn’t need the money and is actually a student, all the things that Bledsoe and Orton were not (well, Orton may not have needed the money, but he wasn’t happy with Cal I don’t think).
Lamb isn’t going to be first round projected and returns. He is going to be seen as a little small to play the NBA 2, a perception he will change after his soph or jr season.
Knight should stay.
He is Mr. Education right? Of course he could get his degree after making millions in the NBA. But what we know about him, he might just stay for the education….wow that’s a novel concept. I wish Jones would stay but I think Cal will push him to go pro if he is in the top 15 because if he gets injured then, well you know. So that leaves Lamb who KSR claims want to go pro bad so who knows about him. If he stays it would be better for him as well as the team but hey he might pull an Orton without the hookey.
So I think Lamb and Knight will stay. We obviously still have front court issues. I wish Cal would just get a couple of decent meat heads in there. The type that play with a chip in their shoulder. Just to bang around and get some big fouls. Basically the opposite of Vargus. Poor guy. Maybe Cal looks for fast guys over big guys. I’m not sure why he won’t recruit some muscle. Any ideas on that?
Passing on millions to play the game you plan to play anyhow just to ...
get another year of college, something you could do in the off season, will only prove that Knight is not as smart as we thought.
Here's a thought.
UK making a deep run in the NCAA this year could hurt us next year. Last year’s team benefited from so much hype by the national media that it raised the stock of the first year players to first round picks, some deserved, some questionable. If this year’s team puts together a similar run, then Lamb and Knight get more media love and this could boost their draft status. Now this is assuming that exposure on the tube is correlated to NBA interest. Any thoughts from this angle?
I woke up feeling BLUE this morning. It's gonna be a great day.
It didn't help the draft stock of Duke's players.
But I see your point. It just depends on how they play and who is seen as being responsible. Winning alone won’t raise the stock I don’t think.
Scouts watch UK now
Scouts get paid to evaluate talent. They know we have talent and are already watching the guys they are interested in. I think the more likely senerio goes like this: in order for us to go deep in the tourney, Lamb and Knight have to play well. The better they play, especially in meaningful games, the higher their draft stock rises.
It all depends on the lockout
But if everybody stays,plus the class coming in,next years team would be incredibly talented. I don’t think it would matter if there was a true center or not with all the talent and debth. It would be 1996 all over again as far as pure talent,maybe even better, and hopefully with the same results.
Billy Hunter executive director of NBA players association thinks a lock-out is very likely
The owners want to trim the 57% of income the players currently get down to 40%. According to Hunter the owners arn’t backing down from that.
So if by the end of the college season things remain status quo all our freshman will return.
If no lock out I’m sure that Cal will push TJ to leave – a no brainer. He’ll be top five or no less then a top ten. Knight probably will leave if he can stay in the top 20 as he is currently projected. Knight coming back would mean splitting time at point with Teague and that wouldn’t benefit his draft stock at all if he had to play at the two position. He is a natural PG in the NBA.
A man is nothing more than a summation of his scars!
Teague is not going to force BK to the 2 or Lamb to the bench next season.
The question is do any incoming freshmen put Knight, Lamb, Miller or Liggins on the bench at the start of games?
I’d be willing to bet no. Only Davis starts. The rest make up the best bench in college basketball.
And a bench that Coach Cal
will go to quickly and frequently. The starters will get more time to catch their breath and observe the game from the sidelines, making them more aware of what the other team is doing. Fouls will be less of an issue and we can smother people with defense. If any coach can manage to keep players happier with less playing time, it is Calipari.
I woke up feeling BLUE this morning. It's gonna be a great day.
Talk about a sea of blue
Waves of talent coming off that bench.
by maysvilleblue on Jan 28, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
There Is Such A Thing As Too Much Talent
Recent UNC teams are examples. UK teams of the mid-1980’s also.
by FortyYearCatFan on Jan 28, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Sometimes They Do
Sometimes they don’t.
The 2002 UK team was very talented and deep, yet 22-10 at end of that season.
by FortyYearCatFan on Jan 29, 2011 8:36 AM EST up reply actions
I will take too much talent any day...
over too little.
by maysvilleblue on Jan 29, 2011 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
Yes BUT
No team was more talented than UK in 2010 season.
Surely not WVU. And yet, WVU > UK that day last March.
by FortyYearCatFan on Jan 29, 2011 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
True..but
that’s an easy argument for you to make. Most years the most talented team DOESN’T win it all. If last years team would have played WV 10 times UK wins 7-8 easy. They just didn’t win on that day. If I had the choice of taking last years UK team or WV’s I would take the Cats every day and twice on Sunday.
by maysvilleblue on Jan 30, 2011 8:15 PM EST up reply actions
Plenty Of Examples Down Thru The Years
Duke beat an undefeated UNLV team in early 1990’s.
UNLV > talented than Duke. But Duke had more experience.
by FortyYearCatFan on Jan 31, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
I think that UNLV in 1991
returned their entire starting lineup from the 1990 championship. That is hardly a lack of experience. In addition, Duke had Laettner, Hurley as juniors (who had been thrashed in the previous year’s FF) and Grant Hill as a freshman. I disagree that Duke had more experience.
UNLV More Talent
Duke more experience but not more talent.
by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 2, 2011 7:22 AM EST up reply actions
Just curious...
How did UK’s supersized amount of talent cost them that game?
by wildcatfaninexile on Jan 31, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
Coaching
Huggins outcoached Calipari.
He’s 8-1 liftime versus Cal.
by FortyYearCatFan on Jan 31, 2011 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
How did coaching
make us miss all of those threes?
I woke up feeling BLUE this morning. It's gonna be a great day.
Coaches Make Adjustments
Calipari didn’t.
Huggins has rarely had more talent than Calipari.
by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 2, 2011 7:23 AM EST up reply actions
Bad shooting more than bad coaching
Not much a coach can do if the shots aren’t falling.
by maysvilleblue on Feb 1, 2011 6:59 AM EST up reply actions
True
But 3 point FG shots are not the only way to score.
by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 2, 2011 7:23 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think Cal was telling them to fire up 3's
It was a case of a young team one step away from the FF who panicked when they got behind.
by maysvilleblue on Feb 2, 2011 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
Coach's Job To Change That
Calipari is one of Top 5 active coaches (Huggins isn’t) but Huggs has his number, head-2-head.
by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 2, 2011 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
Only way to have changed that..
was if he went out there himself. It’s ridiculous to think he told the players to keep shooting 3’s. The shots weren’t falling and they panicked. Not taking anything away from Huggins but it made his job a lot easier because of the bad shooting. And the majority were good shots. They just didn’t fall that day.
by maysvilleblue on Feb 2, 2011 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
Surely Players Do What Their Coach Tells Them
Or they sit next to him on the bench.
by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 2, 2011 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
NBA PG?
I’m not so sure BK is a ‘natural’ NBA PG. At 1 or 2 , he has to get stronger.
by bigbill992001 on Jan 28, 2011 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
Off they go...
Long time visitor, first time poster…
I think we should temper our hopes regarding returning players. Half way through last season, who would have thought that Bledsoe and Orton would leave? UK has a history of players heading to the pros even when another season of college ball would help their long term prospects (Orton, Randolph Morris, and an old favorite Kelenna Azibuke, although he had a good excuse). I fully expect Jones, Knight, and Lamb to test the draft waters at the end of the season.
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