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Kentucky Football: Will the 'Cats Take Advantage of a Favorable 2010 Schedule?

I'm not sure one should use the adjective favorable to describe any SEC football schedule, in any year, but the 2010 Kentucky pigskin slate is as close as it gets.  With the always brutal SEC East experiencing a marginal downturn in experienced talent, resulting in no one team other than Florida being considered dominant, the up-to-now charmed life UK coach Joker Phillips has been living since taking over the reigns of the Kentucky football program has him positioned to enjoy a season to remember.  

In addition to inheriting an actual winning ball club, and putting together a 2011 recruiting class which will rival any of UK's previous efforts in quality, the advantageous schedule Joker Phillips and his 'Cats will battle this season is chock full of "winnable" games.  And with five of the final seven contests of the regular season being in the confines of comfortable Commonwealth Stadium; do we dare dream big?  Do we dare dream of the possibility of a double-digit win season?  Or is 10-win-wonder-lust simply the result of a Big Blue Nation hallucination?

To determine the sanity of optimistic UK football fans, we will take a comprehensive look at the feasibility of UK experiencing its winningest football season since 1977's 10-1 mark.  We'll begin examining the 2010 Kentucky schedule, today concentrating on U of L, Florida, and Ole Miss; with minimal mention of UK's second and third games of the season against WKU and Akron.

Star-divide

To keep the post from being intimidatingly long in length, we'll cover the remainder of UK's schedule in the coming days.

Louisville Cardinals: September 4 @ Papa John's Cardinal Stadium

2009: UK 31  U of L 27

Former Florida Gator defensive coordinator Charlie Strong takes over a Cardinal football team that can best be described as offensively anemic (18.1 points per game in '09), and generous defensively (26.2 opponents ppg).  U of L gave up an average of 371.1 yards per game to their opponents, and gained an average of 334.1 yards.  Coming off a 4-8 (1-6 Big East) record, in 2010 Strong will look to the running game for the bulk of his offense, and a couple of returning defensive stalwarts to propel the defense.

Offensively, the Cards lose their top receiver in Scott Long (727 rec. yards and two), and top producing all-purpose performer, Trent Guy (1,474 all-purpose yards).  That leaves senior wide out Doug Beaumont (38 receptions; 465 yards; zero touchdowns) as the lone experienced receiving threat.

On the ground Strong can count on running back, senior Bilal Powell (392 rushing yards; 3.6 yards per carry; 4 touchdowns), junior Victor Anderson (473 yards rushing; 5.3 ypc; five touchdowns).  Breakout sophomore Darius Ashley (462 yards rushing; 4.4 ypc; four touchdowns in nine games) has been moved to the secondary to give Johnny Patrick some help, but if injuries occur in the U of L backfield he may find himself once again carrying the ball.  Last season Louisville ran for 1,502 yards.  If these three players stay healthy, the Cardinals should surpass 1,500 yards rushing by a healthy margin.

Strong currently has three quarterbacks vying for the starting signal-caller nod: Senior Adam Froman, who played in eight games last season, threw for 1,354 yards, six touchdowns (five interceptions), and completed 60.0% of his throws.  Senior Justin Burke, who started the UK game last season, threw for 654 yards and three touchdowns (five interceptions), and completed 50.5% of his passes in five games.  And finally, sophomore Will Stein, who played in four games last year, threw for 450 yards, one interception and zero touchdowns, while completing 55.1% of his passes.  Strong has made it very clear that he intends to name the starter prior to the beginning of fall camp at the end of July.

Defensively, Strong loses linebackers Jon Dempsey (107 tackles), and Chris Campa (91 tackles; 6.0 sacks), but welcomes back defensive end William Savoy (5.0 sacks), and the player most often cited as the top Cardinal defender, cornerback Johnny Patrick (five pass breakups; two interceptions). 

But, the Cardinal's offensive impetus in 2010 (the running game) has been UK's defensive weakness since Jesus was preachin' in Omaha.  Like last season's scrum at Commonwealth, I expect a tough, close game in this year's Governor's Cup contest.  Who wins?  No prediction ... yet.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: September 11 @ Commonwealth Stadium

Last played: 2008, a 41-3 UK victory at Commonwealth Stadium

New Hilltopper head coach Willie Taggart will look to improve on last season's 0-11 record as WKU continues to fight for respectability in FBS football.  Picked to come in last in this season's Sun Belt Conference, the Hilltopers will once again struggle to stop opponents.

This game should be an easy "W" for the 'Cats.

Akron Zips: September 18 @ Commonwealth Stadium

Akron and UK have never met on the football field.

New head coach Rob Ianello will look to improve on Akron's 3-9 2009 record.  Ianello takes over the Mid-American Conference program for J D. Brookhart.

Ianello comes to Akron after spending the last two seasons at Notre Dame where he served as interim head coach in 2009.  

Interesting trivia: Akron was the first team to make the leap from Division I-AA to I-A (1987).

UK should prevail fairly easily in this contest.

Florida Gators: September 25 @ Ben Hill Griffin Stadium 

2009: Florida 41  UK 7

Gator head coach Urban Meyer loses a lot in 2010.  From all-world quarterback/fullback Tim Tebow and his 2,895 passing yards (21 touchdowns), as well as 910 rushing yards (14 touchdowns), to top receiver Riley Cooper (961 receiving yards; nine touchdowns), to tight end extraordinaire Aaron Hernandez (850 receiving yards; five touchdowns), to All-SEC linebacker Brandon Spikes (68 tackles; 6.5 tackles for loss; two interceptions), to linebacker and leading tackler Ryan Stamper (78 tackles; two interceptions), to All-SEC defensive end Carlos Dunlap (38 tackles; 9.0 sacks; 10.5 tackles for loss), to defensive end Jermaine Cunningham (34 tackles; 12.0 tackles for loss; 7.0 sacks), to cornerback Joe Haden (10 pass breakups; four interceptions).

But shed no crocodile tears for Meyer, he returns plenty of talent, and has the top rated recruiting class in the nation coming to the Gainesville campus.

It will, though, be a difficult task putting up the strong stats the 2009 Gators put on the board: 35.9 points per game (2nd in SEC) on 457.9 yards per game (1st), versus giving up only 12.4 points per game (2nd), and 253.2 yards per game (2nd).  The opus for successfully following up Florida's 13-1 (8-1) 2010 record falls squarely on the shoulders of new quarterback John Brantley (410 passing yards; nine touchdowns in '09).  Brantley, who UK fans got a good look at after Tebow went down with a concussion in the third quarter of last year's contest, is a pro-style quarterback, rated the top QB coming out of high school two years ago.  His arm is strong and accurate, and defensive coordinators are already losing sleep.

Brantley, though, loses the top two Gator receivers in Cooper and Hernandez, but he does return uber-athletic wide receiver Deonte Thompson (24 receptions; 343 yards; four touchdowns), and five-star recruit Andre Dubose who underwent hamstring surgery and missed last season.  Protecting Brantley, and clearing the way for Florida's stud running backs are five new offensive linemen ... I do use the term "new" loosely, for all five players have starting experience.

And speaking of the Gator running game: The top two Gator ball carriers (other than Tebow) are back for the 2010 season.  Led by speedy Jeffery Demps (745 yards rushing; 7.5 ypc; seven touchdowns), and Chris Rainey (575 yards; 6.5 ypc; five touchdowns), Florida will be very difficult to contain on the ground.

As mentioned above, defensively, the Gators lose a lot of talent, but new D-coordinator Teryl Austin will run his 4-3 defense with returning starting linebackers A. J. Jones (37 tackles; 4.5 tackles for loss in 11 games) and Brandon Hicks (38 tackles; 5.0 tackles for loss; 4.0 sacks).

If there is such a thing as a certain loss, this is it. 

Mississippi Rebels: October 2 @ Vaught - Hemingway Stadium

Last played: 2006, a 31-14 UK victory at Commonwealth Stadium

Head coach Houston Nutt, in his first two years in Oxford, has led the Rebels to back-to-back nine win campaigns (9-4, 4-4 SEC in '09) for the first time since the early '60's.  Making the string of nine win seasons a terrific trifecta, though, will be considerably more difficult considering the personnel losses suffered by the Rebs.

Leading off the "miss" parade is running back Dexter McCluster.  Last season McCluster burst onto the scene in his senior year with 1,169 yards, averaging an outstanding 6.5 yards per carry.  He scored eight rushing touchdowns.  McCluster's effectiveness running the ball was a nice counterbalance to quarterback Jevan Snead's 2,632 yards through the air, and 20 touchdown passes.  And who was Snead throwing the ball to?  How about Shay Hodge (1,135 receiving yards; eight touchdowns), who is also gone from last year.

Losing the top three offensive weapons on the team will most assuredly impact the Rebels' terrific offensive numbers from last season -- 29.5 points per game (5th SEC), and 402.4 yards of total offense per game (5th SEC) -- but in 2010, the offense will be built around the capable running of tailback Brandon Bolden.  Last season Bolden spelled McCluster quite nicely, running for 614 yards on 129 carries (4.8 ypc) and four touchdowns.  Bolden also proved very effective in the passing game, catching 20 passes for 209 yards (10.5 yards per reception) and one touchdown.  

Which player hands-off and throws the ball to Bolden is the mystery. 

There are three possible replacements for Snead; the only quarterback with any major college experience is sophomore Nathan Stanley, who threw for 163 yards, one touchdown and one interception last season.  The other candidates to run new offensive coordinator Dave Rader's scheme are: Redshirt freshman Raymond Cotton and JUCO transfer Randall Mackey.

Considering the Rebels lost their top four receivers, are breaking in an inexperienced quarterback, but have a running back with proven ability, it's a safe bet Nutt will keep the ball on the ground.

Adding to the concerns of Rebel fans is the loss of a significant portion of last season's top unit: the defense.  In 2009, Ole Miss defenders gave up a miserly 17.7 points per game (4th SEC), and 314.7 yards per game (4th SEC).  But they lose off the unit; leading tackler Kendrick Lewis (84 tackles), and one of the best linebackers in the SEC, Patrick Trahan (69 tackles; 12.0 tackles for loss).  Also, both starting defensive ends have matriculated; Emmanuel Stephens and Marcus Tillman (both 5.5 sacks in '09).

The good news is the defensive line should once again be a force in stopping Rebel opponents from dominating on the ground.  Senior defensive lineman Kentrell Lockett returns (13 qb pressures; 10.0 tackles for loss; 5.0 sacks), as does senior Jerrell Powe (12.0 tackles for Liss; 34 tackles).  Nose tackle Ted Laurent (senior) is also back in Oxford (12 tackles; 2.5 tackles for loss).  In addition, the Rebels return middle linebacker Jonathan Cornell who had 71 tackles and 8.0 tackles for loss in 2009.

Once again, the Ole Miss strength, running the ball, is a Kentucky weakness defensively.  But the sheer inexperience of so many Ole Miss offensive starters certainly makes this game very winnable.  If the contest were played in Lexington, I would pick the 'Cats without pause, but any and all road games are likely to produce at least one of the following: head-scratching incompetence, or infuriating mental errors at the most inopportune moments.

But, since we're dreaming, I'll pick the 'Cats in a close one.  Side-note: If UK has any hopes of attaining a magical 10 win season, they have to win this game.

*Remember, we'll take a comprehensive look at the remaining games on UK's football schedule in the coming days.

*Of course, today begins SEC Football Media Days.  If anything salacious or felonious occurs, we at A Sea of Blue will inform you of the details as we ascertain them.

Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats!

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" Doug Beaumont (38 receptions; 4654 yards; zero touchdowns)"

That has to be some kind of record!

j/k…..

Then it comes to be that the soothing light at the end of your tunnel, is just a freight train coming your way...

by btcoop71 on Jul 21, 2010 8:41 AM EDT reply actions  

Heh - thought the same thing.

Crunched the numbers. That’s 122 yards per reception. And no touchdowns. He must be getting credit for running sideways.

by JackBluto on Jul 21, 2010 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see us at 7-5

With Losses to to UF, USC, and UT almost Guaranteed. If we beat any one of those three, we may be talikng about a New Years day Bowl Game; at 8-4, or 9-3 going into a possible Outback Bowl Berth.

"all the way"

by ro307805 on Jul 21, 2010 10:01 AM EDT reply actions  

if we don't beat UT this year...

we don’t deserve a bowl game…

only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team

by memphis wildcat on Jul 21, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Same as last year-

Please just BEAT TENNESSEE!!!!!!!!! Thank-you…

"You are what you are and you ain't what you ain't"

by iam4ukintn on Jul 21, 2010 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just an FYI,

Since our defense is so completely depleted this season, Coach Strong moved Darius Ashley to CB. I think he’s looking at redshirt freshman Jeremy Wright to move into Ashley’s spot.
UofL 2010 Roster

Also, I firmly believe that Coach Sanford will get Doug Beaumont into the endzone this year. The guy is a super hard worker and our former coach never saw fit to get him the ball in the endzone.

I think we are in for a great game this year and no matter how you look at it, both our teams are moving in the right direction this year. I see the Cats with as few as 5 wins and as many as 8 wins this season.

by Remote Cardinal on Jul 21, 2010 10:51 AM EDT reply actions  

That's an honest assessment

A strong UL football program is good for the Commonwealth, as well as making our matchups exciting and new. Good look to Coach Strong.

"all the way"

by ro307805 on Jul 21, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

3-2 through the first 5 games would have to be considered a strong start to the season

Which means basically the Cats looking to go split the games @UL and @OleMiss.

If they were somehow able to win both those games – oh my…

3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.

by JLeverenz on Jul 21, 2010 11:01 AM EDT reply actions  

Looking at everything that I can see, a 4-1 start would not surprise me.

I think the UL game is, while being a close contest, a win. Joker wants this thing to work, and he has to prove himself as THE guy after Brooks’ departure. The Florida contest debacle is going to be painful to watch, unless the NCAA dismisses the whole team just before gametime. We have another year that we can hope to contain Ole’ Miss before Houston Nutt starts making them really hungry again.

Then again we could completely lose our heads and end up 1-4……..but not likely.

I AM THE CAT......The Cat In The Hat!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Jul 21, 2010 11:38 AM EDT reply actions  

I would at least like to see us competitive against UF

A good start would be some offensive line discipline.If Joker can finally get that down; we are looking at some sucess. 1st and 20 against SEC foes to start every series is not going to get it done regardless of who the coach is or who we recruit.

"all the way"

by ro307805 on Jul 21, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, I am afraid this season is just as last, resting on the arm of one of those unproven QB's.

Hartline ( although a senior) has just not proven to me yet that he is ready to step up and throw down the field. I think he lacks what the other two have in ability. While they lack his maturity.

I AM THE CAT......The Cat In The Hat!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Jul 21, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I really think the Florida game will be closer than people think.

I’ll even say we have a chance to win if the D can get a couple key turnovers. Given how close some of their wins were last year over comparable SEC talent (comparable to UK). And with the loss of so much talent…

I believe the Gators will come into that game extremely overconfident and young. Certainly they should be confident but given the right opportunities, lack of experience and new defensive scheme there is definitely a recipe for an upset.

We probably wont upset them but they will drop a couple games this year and that could open the door for a 9 or 10 win team to take the East. By the way I’m not a homer, I’m just optimistic. Even if it naively so.

the more I see the less I know for sure

by BlueShoes on Jul 21, 2010 12:24 PM EDT reply actions  

You have a point about UF last year...

they only beat UT, MSU, USC and LSU by 10, Arkansas by 3. But this is a totally different team.

Additionally, I think they will prove to be better overall this year than last. 10 guys (10!) on the All-SEC Preseason team.

If UK does win, you’ll look like a genius, but I think an “extremely overconfident and young” UF team still beats this year’s UK team.

by mrmondaynite on Jul 21, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Best case is 9-3...worst is 6-6.

I’m always reluctant to base a season on one game, but I reaaaaalllly feel that the result of the U of L game will illustrate whether we’re on track for 6-6 or 9-3.

by mrmondaynite on Jul 21, 2010 12:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Great analysis of the Ole Miss game except..

It’s Jonathan not Justin Cornell.

Long threes and Sam McGuffie will only take you so far.

by Wathleticism on Jul 21, 2010 1:01 PM EDT reply actions  

nice work

Great preview. 2009 and this year have been wide-open (except at the top) years for the SEC East. We almost cracked second place last year, which would have been incredible. I think this year we’re well-poised to get over the hump. Will we? Well, that’s the fun of being a Kentucky football fan.

by chstrckwl on Jul 21, 2010 1:42 PM EDT reply actions  

With blue colored glasses

I’m looking at a 4-1 record for this first part of the year. Wins: Louisville, WKU, Akron and either Florida (yes, Florida) or Ole Miss with the other being the loss. 5-0 is not outside the realm of possibility (and neither is me dating Angela Jolie) but, of course, not likely.

More than just our schedule helps us this year for these games. It will be good getting Florida early in the year with their previous games being homers against USF and Miami(OH) then at Knoxville. Further, the following week they have a road game at Alabama which you know they will be looking toward. With three previous games against weak competition (like us) with a slightly experienced quarterback and the looming Alabama game it sets up about as well as we could hope. I see Brantley getting nothing but better as the year progresses so having them early is our best shot.

If the unthinkable happens and we catch Florida off guard, the next week at Ole Miss would offer UK an opportunity for impressive consecutive road wins. This time the Ole Miss schedule helps us – their preceding games are Jacksonville State, Tulane, Vandy and Fresno State – not exactly great tests of their team but then they have a bye followed by a game with Alabama so they won’t be looking past us. Nutt’s rah-rah approach served him well his first couple of years but now will really be tested as a coach since he’s missing so many weapons. They’ll be lucky to finish 7-5.

by hoboat33 on Jul 21, 2010 3:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, Ole Miss lost a lot

Picking UK to win road games against marginal compeitition is always tough, but I feel good about the Cats chances.

As I wrote, in order to get to nine or ten wins, they have to win that game.

by Ken Howlett on Jul 21, 2010 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

And have to beat UT

Then it comes to be that the soothing light at the end of your tunnel, is just a freight train coming your way...

by btcoop71 on Jul 21, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

As you said

McCluster is gone, thankfully. I’m glad we didn’t face him last year, it was enough to watch Dixon run wild against our defense.

by hoboat33 on Jul 21, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

We were better on the road last year though.

3-1 vs. SEC teams. Nearly 4-0.

At home v. SEC, not so much.

by JackBluto on Jul 21, 2010 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Blue glasses or not

A great look at other schedules looking good for us. I would have never thought about looking at that hoboat. I am so ready for football season!

Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!

by a2d2 on Jul 21, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

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