Log5 Projections for SEC Tournament
by KYvampyre on Mar 8, 2010 4:45 PM EST
22 comments
These are log5 projections for next week's SEC Tournament. As expected, Kentucky is the favorite to win the whole thing (The Wildcats are 42.47% to win the championship, a little better than 2.5 to 1 odds). Also unsurprisingly, Vanderbilt has the second best survival rating for the tournament at 19.22%. Pythagorean Win Percentages are taken from Ken Pomeroy's site. If you don't know what log5 is or how it's calculated, there's a really good article and explanation here. This is the third year I've done the log5 calculator for the SECT, and other than the year when Georgia shocked everyone and won the thing, it's been fairly accurate. Anyway, enjoy if you're interested. I'll have one next week for the NCAA tournament.
| Pyth. | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | ||
| E1 | Kentucky | 0.9549 | 100.00% | 83.78% | 58.24% | 42.47% |
| E5 | South Carolina | 0.7601 | 39.96% | 5.20% | 1.36% | 0.41% |
| W4 | Alabama | 0.8264 | 60.04% | 11.02% | 3.81% | 1.47% |
| W2 | Mississippi | 0.8739 | 100.00% | 41.42% | 12.74% | 6.05% |
| W6 | LSU | 0.4659 | 7.10% | 0.79% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| E3 | Tennessee | 0.9194 | 92.90% | 57.79% | 23.80% | 14.16% |
| W1 | Mississippi State | 0.8732 | 100.00% | 55.29% | 26.16% | 8.59% |
| W5 | Auburn | 0.7287 | 27.29% | 7.66% | 2.08% | 0.35% |
| E4 | Florida | 0.8774 | 72.71% | 37.05% | 17.87% | 6.01% |
| E2 | Vanderbilt | 0.9093 | 100.00% | 77.48% | 46.82% | 19.22% |
| E6 | Georgia | 0.7646 | 56.45% | 13.81% | 4.62% | 0.90% |
| W3 | Arkansas | 0.7148 | 43.55% | 8.71% | 2.44% | 0.39% |
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Georgia Bulldogs......
thats the way you spell “overacheiver” in the south…..lol
I AM THE CAT......The Cat In The Hat!!!
The Kentucky/Ole Miss/Tennessee bracket is the strong one
According to these projections, Kentucky wins roughly 72% of the time it appears in the finals. Tennessee wins 58% of the time, and Ole Miss wins roughly half the time. Next is Vanderbilt, but their 41% conversion rate only just edges Alabama’s 38%. Anyone want to guess which bracket Alabama is in?
This is mostly due to Kentucky being the strongest team in the field, but having the #1 and #3 in the same half of the bracket doesn’t hurt your case to be the strong one.
by Incipient_Senescence on Mar 8, 2010 7:41 PM EST reply actions
Also, the SEC West is much, much weaker this year than the East.
So the side of the bracket with 2 of the top 3 teams from the East is predictably stronger.
Oh
Actually it’s the two highest pythags in the conference in the same bracket. No wonder.
I’m a little bit surprised though that they’re giving Mississippi State the edge over Florida. UF already beat them once.
by Incipient_Senescence on Mar 8, 2010 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
Head to head, Florida would be very slightly favored over Mississippi State.
But they have to beat Auburn to get there, which is likely but not certain. So the odds that Florida beats Mississippi State gets multiplied by the chance that they beat Auburn, which is a number less than one, which makes their chance of reaching the semifinals smaller than MSU’s. It’s like flipping coins repeatedly—even if the coin favors one side over the other, winning two flips in a row is by definition harder than winning one.
I was more thinking of MSU's 55% chance of winning their first game
I know some of that comes from the possibility of playing Auburn, but not all of it.
Actually, never mind, it is all of it. I didn’t realize that Auburn had a 28% of making it to the second day. Florida’s chances of winning should they make the quarters is slightly above 50%. I’d put it closer to 60 myself, but better than 50/50 is definitely correct.
by Incipient_Senescence on Mar 8, 2010 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty cool vamp!
I’ll take these odd any day… Now, how can I make this work to my advantage with some of the SEC fans I work with?? :-)
If your wings don't sweep....
Look at the vampyre breaking bad on us with math.
Nice work, even though I have no clue what it means other than I should bet the Cats.
Nicely done vampyre
The top teams in these projections are usually pretty obvious, so I’m always interested in which teams might have a better chance than expected. Florida falls into that category and I’m surprised by Alabama’s result.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
Florida's chances actually surprised me by being so low
I guess it’s because they don’t have a bye, but I could easily see them winning rematches with Auburn and MSU and then finally winning a tight one against Vanderbilt. That alone gets them to Sunday, at which point anything can happen. I also think Georgia has a better than 1 in 4 chance of knocking of Vandy, should they win on day 1. They already beat Vandy at home, and the game in Memorial was too close for comfort for the ’Dores.
by Incipient_Senescence on Mar 9, 2010 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Ok, so now.....this brings us to another real question.....
Does this chart make the case for re-seeding this tournament? I have heard the arguments that re-seeding eliminates the need for divisions, and that is possible, but honest;y, do we really need those divisions anymore?? Or should we look at doing something even more radical and taking an NFL approach and making 4 divisions, to allow for a more balanced seeding in the tournament? I really do think that if the %’s play out, this year has done a serious disservice to UK in their attempt to win this tourney, because having to play (and beat) USC, UT, and Vandy(which would have to be a 3rd time this season, almost impossible for anyone to do) over a three day period is almost impossible. I know those games are not decided yet, but as vampyre says, unless Georgia goes on another improbable tear?
I AM THE CAT......The Cat In The Hat!!!
The divisions are more for football ...
… but it is one of those things that you really can’t explain for basketball.
I don’t know, we went for years in the NCAA tournament without seeding, but the tourney was smaller in those days. The SEC tournament is so small, I don’t really think it begs for a change.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
I keep hearing that some of the coaches want the re-seeding......I dont see where it makes a lot of difference, but now that the
Big East is doing it….I guess everyone else wants to as well
I AM THE CAT......The Cat In The Hat!!!
For you horseracing fans...
if you take Vamp’s percentages to win and convert them to odds, it would appear something like this…
Kentucky………………5/2
Vanderbilt……………..5/1
Tennessee……………7/1
Mississippi State…….12/1
Mississippi……………16/1
Florida…………………17/1
Alabama……………….68/1
Georgia……………….111/1
South Carolina……….244/1
Arkansas……………..256/1
Auburn…………………286/1
LSU…………………10,000/1
Faced with these odds at the track, I’d have to bet an exacta with UK over Vandy/Miss St/Florida.
Very cool.
I’ll take a UK-Vandy exacta, please. :-)
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
like and understand these numbers better!!!
the race is on!!!…lower $$$ returns, but much to my liking…comparing “our field” to the others in this way, is fun…i’d bet your exacta here, anyday!!!
"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as much as you please."...Mark Twain.
Question?
Do we still have to play the games?
Happy Days are here again The sky is all ways BLUE again Happy days are here again !
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