Kentucky Basketball: Why the Georgia Game is Huge
by Truzenzuzex on Mar 3, 2010 9:05 AM EST
in Basketball
29 comments
Normally, you wouldn't think a late-season tilt versus a Georgia Bulldogs team with a 5-9 SEC conference record would be that big a deal for the Kentucky Wildcats, who sport a 12-2 record. This year, though, you would be wrong.
This game is important for all kinds of reasons -- let me count the ways:
- The Vanderbilt Commodores are 12-3. A loss here and the Wildcats are in a tie for the SEC East and overall lead, and would have to hope for a Vandy loss to win the league outright.
- If Kentucky loses this game, their #1 tournament seed will no longer be assured, and in fact, they will most likely need help in the form of losses from other top tournament teams to have a chance to regain it.
- The Bulldogs have an RPI of only around #83. Beating Kentucky, even in their gym, would be considered a bad loss and hurt UK's seeding in the eyes of the Tournament Committee. In fact, the odds are fair that UK would not be able to recover enough to get a #1 seed.
- The Bulldogs are coming off a 2-point victory over the Florida Gators at Stegeman Coliseum in Athens. In addition, the Bulldogs have been giving top teams fits at home, beating Tennessee, nearly beating Vandy last week, and beating the aforementioned Gators. The Dawgs may have struggled against the West, but they have been beating the top teams in the East with disturbing regularity.
- The Red Clay Hounds are undefeated in Athens against SEC East squads. Yes, I'm as surprised as you are, but it is the truth.
- Georgia has steadily risen in the RPI rankings until January, where they hit the top 100 and have stayed there. Their inconsistency has prevented them from rising further, but they are a talented ball club who has proven that they can handle anyone in the conference at home.
Even though the Bulldogs are not a threat to make the tournament this year, they can definitely spoil Kentucky's plans for the NCAA tournament and force a re-evaluation. No doubt that is exactly what is going to be on their minds tonight as the Wildcats travel to the wonderful college town of Athens, Georgia today.
But it won't be so wonderful for the Wildcats. As John Calipari has repeatedly said, Kentucky is going to be everybody's Super Bowl this year. Even in the basketball-challenged, football-mad Peach State, you can expect very few empty seats in Stegeman tonight, and the crowd will likely be as rowdy and loud as those at Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Mississippi St. have been, if a little smaller overall (Stegeman Coliseum only seats 10,500 or so).
This is another one of those, "win this one, and you are guaranteed a share of the SEC regular-season championship" games, and hopefully, this will be the one the 'Cats actually win to claim that share. Another interesting fact is that Kentucky can no longer get to 30 wins in the regular season, but they can get to 29, which will still raise the regular season win record set a few games back. Like most UK fans, I sure would have liked a nice, round number, though.
Just to let you know how big this could be in terms of national title implications, #2 seeds have played for the national championship 15 times, and won 6 (Kentucky was one in 1998). #1 seeds have played in the national championship game 29 times, or almost twice as often, and won 17 times, more than twice as often. So if UK wants to historically double their odds of playing for the national title and more than double the odds of winning it if they do, this win is a critical part of that effort.
Calipari says that it's all about the NCAA tournament seeding now. If so, this game is a must-win for UK's best shot at a title run.
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This could
have been a trap game but not after the UT game. I think it will be a war and that will to win better be in full gear tonight.
I still think back to the embarassing loss to Georgia at home to close the season last year
I want the Cats to make up for that.
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
I don't see us coming out flat in this game....
But Georgia hasn’t been an easy out at home this year and I don’t see this game being any different. Not a game to take for granted.
All of your points are well taken Tru, as usual......
Georgia only needs athletes shooters to become a top 25 team in the nation….and Fox is getting 110% out of his guys, just when he needs it most.
The Cats are going to make this game a statement for a couple of reasons. Calipari knows that Saturday is going to take care of itself if these guys are a championship caliber team. No #1 seed is going to allow a team like Florida(even though they MAY be an NCAA tourney team) to come into their house and beat them on Senior (+Patterson) Day. (You like that one?)
So, Cal throws everything but the kitchen sink at this game. Including and not limited to pulling his 3 pt guys from lower down the bench if the 3 spot does not start producing more points again. He tells DeMarcus and John Wall, that it is showtime, and if they want that draft status to be solidified, then it is time to earn those slots. John Wall is due another breakout game, because he will not hesitate to shoot his way into the tournament, if those passes he makes dont start leading to some baskets soon.
Patterson does not have to be motivated, because he was there for the loss last year. That is all he will need, ditto for DeAndre. He knows he can go back to riding pine if things dont get back to tournament form really quick. No one on this team from JC down to Mark Krebs is going to take this game for granted, because they got embarrassed at UT Sat night. I really think the ship will right itself tonight. Time to get to work.
Resistence Is Futile......We Are Blue
good write up tru
going to take their A game to get it done. this game will get us over the hump and hopefully ready for a downhill cruise to the NC game.
I have kleptomania,
but when it gets bad,
I take something for it.
Georgia at home last year
chirop1 is right, that one still stings for me as well.
Very good summary Tru, this Georgia team is awfully talented to have the overall record that they have earned so far this season. I do think depth will make a big difference, and hopefully the Cats win it going away. Wonder how much time Hood will see tonight? And Harris for that matter? I’m looking forward to this one big-time, and already feel some of that nervous energy that usually comes later in the month.
by wildcatwhisperer on Mar 3, 2010 9:38 AM EST reply actions
Wow!
The road trips have not been easy in the conference, and I expected this one to not be a piece of cake, either. What I didn’t realize until you brought it up, Tru, is that Georgia has not lost a home game to ANY East team this year. I hope we can end that streak tonight. : )
By the way, what is this talk of a “regular season win record”? I’ve been trying to keep up with statistics and records this year, but this one slipped by me.
Cats By 5
Tough game but Cats are tougher than ’Dogs.
by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 3, 2010 10:17 AM EST reply actions
Thanks Forty
Given your track record for predictions on this site, I now feel that a Kentucky blow out is much more likely. I’m fine, however, with either one of us being right.
Go Cats.
Actually My Track Record Is Pretty Good
I call the blowouts and nailbiters correctly more often than not.
by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 3, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
You
are so right Tru. This is an important game. This was the game that I thought we might lose, but I thought we would win on Saturday. Now, I am pretty sure we will win but if we don’t then I become worried. I become concerned that this team doesn’t have the drive to win in the tournament. They made their mistakes on Saturday and hopefully learned from them. Georgia is just the kind of team that will be gunning for us come tourney time. This is a real good test………
A tough one
In addition to everything you mentioned Tru, this is also Senior night for Georgia which always adds an extra emotional layer. I think know some payback is in order for last year.
As far as the #1 seed is concerned, I think it would still be possible for UK to get one with a loss at Georgia and no help from other teams losing, but doing so would require a perfect draw in the SECT where UK could get both Tennessee and Vandy and pick up 2 more RPI T25 wins – certainly possible but it requires Vandy to make the finals and Tennessee to make the semis.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
It's March and I am tired...
Tired of doubting this team! It has been so easy to convince myself that the last few years of futility are just the norm and I don’t have that feeling that we can take over a game, keep a lead or depend on freshman.
I look at all the stats and this site is WONDERFUL for those things. But, in the end, I almost forget to look at the most important stat. 27-2.
I am seriously going to get behind this team fully for the remainder of this season. Georgia may be tough, but Kentucky is LOADED. We had a terrible first half against an inspired (and well-coached) Tennessee squad and ALMOST WON. It’s easy to look at the final score and think “why, why, why?” Is our three-point percentage scary right now? Yes, but I truly think we can break out of the funk.
Time to start trusting that we can roll over teams. I am rooting the Wildcats on tonight like none other with a smile on my face. Like it or not, this season is almost over and it has been truly magical!
Cats-78
Dawgs-64
Go Cats!
I'll be there...
Unfortunately due to a few factors, one being UGA is my alma matter, two being the tickets I am getting are from a huge UGA booster, I will be wearing white(ish, some blue in there, can’t help it). I really hoped we’d win at Tenn so I could cheer for my dawgs in this game, but no luck, so it’s all out UK. We need this one. Win this one and we’re pretty much a lock for that #1 seed (ain’t no chance in hell Florida comes into our house and wins on senior night). It’s tournament time guys and it is time to show you know how to play games when they matter. Get out fast, take it to them, and win, don’t back down.
I am jacked.
Cal can motivate...
not sure the statistics, but got to believe his record post a loss is pretty good…
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
The last time Cal lost two+ games in a row was 2005
They lost 4 in a row to end the regular season. I think it’s safe to say that if UK were to somehow lose, it wouldn’t be because of anything Cal does or doesn’t do ahead of time.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
Good post, Tru...
One thing, though….
Reason #1 really isn’t relevant, is it? Because the SEC championship means nothing.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
I just spent about 30 minutes
touring the other blogs in the SEC. Cal is right. On most of the spots I found, basketball is nothing. There is not one word about the sport. Of course they for the most part are out of the picture. You have to dig deep in their pages to find basketball in this football league.
Happy Days are here again The sky is all ways BLUE again Happy days are here again !
for all of you out there sweating your backsides off
about why we arent “hitting 3’s”….have a listen at this Coach Cal seems to be doing his best Bobby McFerrin impersonation!!!!
Resistence Is Futile......We Are Blue
You forgot one reason
Because I live in Georgia! I don’t want to have to listen to a bunch of basketball illiterates give me a hard time about beating the Cats. I don’t want my daughter (a Georgia Tech graduate and Kentucky fan) to have to listen to her UGA graduate boyfriend give her a hard time about beating the Cats. I want to feel a little smug as I drive around with my UK license plate on the front of my car. But most of all, I don’t ever want the Cats to lose.
I may be paranoid, but that doesn't mean they're not out to get me.
But UKCat, theyre not illiterate, theyre uneducated......lol.....
Resistence Is Futile......We Are Blue
I think we'll come out all fired up
and I hope Georgia comes out and gives us a heckuva run for our money. Obviously, I hope the Cats take ‘em down, but it would be nice to see that just “coming out all fired up” isn’t enough. Every game matters. Its getting that time of year where every game REALLY matters. Go Big Blue!
They sold out the place for the game against us, so I think you can probably expect a full house tonight, especially with it being Senior Night. What the crowd lacks in size, they make up for in sheer goofiness.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
Actually, ABC
They’re all of the above. Don’t get me wrong, I love UGA when they play outside the conference, as I do all SEC teams (even Florida), but I love to see them lose to the Big Blue. BTW, my daughter who graduated from Georgia Tech has a Masters from UGA, but she hates them no matter who, when, or where they play. That’s the GT coming out in her, not the UK.
I may be paranoid, but that doesn't mean they're not out to get me.
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