FanPost

NCAA Log5

As promised last week, here's the log5 predictor for the NCAA tourney. Pythagorean Win Percentages are again taken from Ken Pomeroy's most excellent stats site.

According to the predictor, Kentucky is roughly a 5-to-1 underdog to make the Final Four and about 25-to-1 to cut down the nets on April 5.

More following the jump.

Sadly, the percentages say Duke. Let's hope they're wrong, although the committee certainly didn't do anything to hurt their chances. Until I saw this bracket, I was unaware that there are actually five regions in the NIT. I don't understand how Kansas can be the #1 overall seed and yet Duke gets to play the winner of the game between the two weakest teams in the field in the first round (or why Florida is in the field, for that matter). But ours is not to reason why. If you're looking for a good 5-12 game to pick in your bracket pool, look at Utah State-Texas A&M. Utah State, the 12 seed, is actually favored slightly in the game, though it's a virtual coin flip (52%-48%). In the same bracket in the 6-11 game, Old Dominion is a 52%-48% favorite over Notre Dame.

A few other notes:

• The chances of all four number one seeds making the Final Four is roughly .02%.

• The 16 seed with the best chance of pulling the hugest upset of all time is Vermont, which is only a 94%-6% underdog against Syracuse.

• The lowest seed with at least a 5% predicted chance of making a run is Florida State, the 9th seed in the West.

Anyway, enjoy if you're into this sort of thing. If not, just enjoy the last three weeks of this most excellent of recent seasons.


Midwest Second Round Sweet Sixteen Regional Finals Final Four National Finals Champion

1 Kansas 98.28% 83.17% 63.63% 46.60% 34.38% 21.97%
16 Lehigh 1.72% 0.15% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 UNLV 46.58% 7.33% 2.71% 0.89% 0.30% 0.08%
9 N. Iowa 53.42% 9.35% 3.75% 1.35% 0.49% 0.14%
4 Maryland 86.36% 57.74% 20.20% 10.62% 5.64% 2.41%
13 Houston 13.64% 3.66% 0.34% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
5 Michigan St. 85.79% 36.76% 9.25% 3.71% 1.50% 0.47%
12 New Mexico St. 14.21% 1.84% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
3 Georgetown 88.50% 60.50% 30.62% 11.55% 6.02% 2.51%
14 Ohio 11.50% 2.52% 0.32% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Tennessee 52.49% 19.94% 6.79% 1.62% 0.57% 0.15%
11 San Diego St. 47.51% 17.05% 5.45% 1.21% 0.40% 0.10%
7 Oklahoma St. 40.42% 10.60% 3.83% 0.79% 0.24% 0.06%
10 Georgia Tech 59.58% 20.07% 9.03% 2.45% 0.96% 0.29%
2 Ohio State 95.38% 68.80% 43.91% 19.12% 11.18% 5.35%
15 UCSB 4.62% 0.53% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
West Second Round Sweet Sixteen Regional Finals Final Four National Finals Champion
1 Syracuse 93.85% 65.64% 47.61% 28.48% 13.08% 6.26%
16 Vermont 6.15% 0.87% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Gonzaga 32.01% 7.59% 3.05% 0.85% 0.16% 0.03%
9 Florida St. 67.99% 25.91% 15.18% 6.78% 2.18% 0.74%
4 Vanderbilt 59.10% 27.12% 8.95% 3.18% 0.79% 0.21%
13 Murray St. 40.90% 15.14% 3.90% 1.08% 0.20% 0.04%
5 Butler 55.37% 33.26% 12.87% 5.34% 1.58% 0.49%
12 UTEP 44.63% 24.48% 8.31% 3.03% 0.77% 0.21%
3 Pittsburgh 88.46% 41.17% 14.48% 5.91% 1.64% 0.48%
14 Oakland 11.54% 1.18% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Xavier 52.16% 30.57% 12.01% 5.40% 1.69% 0.56%
11 Minnesota 47.84% 27.08% 10.10% 4.34% 1.28% 0.40%
7 BYU 76.24% 40.60% 26.76% 15.48% 6.65% 2.99%
10 Florida 23.76% 6.54% 2.47% 0.77% 0.16% 0.03%
2 Kansas St. 95.34% 52.55% 34.07% 19.33% 8.10% 3.55%
15 North Texas 4.66% 0.30% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
East Second Round Sweet Sixteen Regional Finals Final Four National Finals Champion

1 Kentucky 94.50% 64.31% 34.91% 21.65% 9.97% 4.69%
16 E. Tenn. State 5.50% 0.64% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Texas 66.95% 26.58% 11.05% 5.42% 1.87% 0.65%
9 Wake Forest 33.05% 8.47% 2.28% 0.75% 0.16% 0.03%
4 Wisconsin 89.90% 64.60% 38.39% 25.01% 12.28% 6.18%
13 Wofford 10.10% 2.44% 0.37% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
5 Temple 74.50% 28.13% 11.93% 5.76% 1.95% 0.66%
12 Cornell 25.50% 4.83% 1.01% 0.25% 0.04% 0.01%
3 New Mexico 76.55% 30.76% 9.32% 2.49% 0.57% 0.13%
14 Montana 23.45% 4.00% 0.48% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Marquette 50.99% 33.48% 13.26% 4.68% 1.42% 0.43%
11 Washington 49.01% 31.76% 12.28% 4.23% 1.25% 0.37%
7 Clemson 52.33% 22.45% 13.49% 5.44% 1.89% 0.66%
10 Missouri 47.67% 19.43% 11.24% 4.29% 1.41% 0.47%
2 West Virginia 94.43% 57.65% 39.87% 19.92% 8.63% 3.82%
15 Morgan St. 5.57% 0.47% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
South Second Round Sweet Sixteen Regional Finals Final Four National Finals Champion

1 Duke 99.13% 80.51% 64.72% 51.52% 37.77% 24.83%
16 Ark-Pine Bluff 0.44% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Winthrop 0.44% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 California 63.72% 14.25% 7.63% 4.02% 1.77% 0.65%
9 Louisville 36.28% 5.20% 2.08% 0.81% 0.26% 0.06%
4 Purdue 74.33% 40.88% 11.69% 6.26% 2.81% 1.05%
13 Siena 25.67% 7.62% 0.99% 0.29% 0.07% 0.01%
5 Texas A&M 48.14% 24.35% 5.93% 2.83% 1.11% 0.36%
12 Utah State 51.86% 27.15% 6.96% 3.45% 1.41% 0.48%
3 Baylor 88.57% 59.16% 36.31% 13.37% 6.57% 2.71%
14 Sam Houston St. 11.43% 2.36% 0.42% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Notre Dame 47.17% 17.55% 7.57% 1.72% 0.54% 0.14%
11 Old Dominion 52.83% 20.94% 9.61% 2.36% 0.80% 0.22%
7 Richmond 47.05% 16.88% 5.96% 1.19% 0.33% 0.07%
10 Saint Mary's 52.95% 20.35% 7.72% 1.68% 0.51% 0.12%
2 Villanova 94.62% 62.24% 32.38% 10.46% 4.57% 1.66%
15 Robert Morris 5.38% 0.53% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Play-In Game
16 Ark-Pine Bluff 59.97%
16 Winthrop 40.03%
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