As promised last week, here's the log5 predictor for the NCAA tourney. Pythagorean Win Percentages are again taken from Ken Pomeroy's most excellent stats site.
According to the predictor, Kentucky is roughly a 5-to-1 underdog to make the Final Four and about 25-to-1 to cut down the nets on April 5.
More following the jump.
Sadly, the percentages say Duke. Let's hope they're wrong, although the committee certainly didn't do anything to hurt their chances. Until I saw this bracket, I was unaware that there are actually five regions in the NIT. I don't understand how Kansas can be the #1 overall seed and yet Duke gets to play the winner of the game between the two weakest teams in the field in the first round (or why Florida is in the field, for that matter). But ours is not to reason why. If you're looking for a good 5-12 game to pick in your bracket pool, look at Utah State-Texas A&M. Utah State, the 12 seed, is actually favored slightly in the game, though it's a virtual coin flip (52%-48%). In the same bracket in the 6-11 game, Old Dominion is a 52%-48% favorite over Notre Dame.
A few other notes:
• The chances of all four number one seeds making the Final Four is roughly .02%.
• The 16 seed with the best chance of pulling the hugest upset of all time is Vermont, which is only a 94%-6% underdog against Syracuse.
• The lowest seed with at least a 5% predicted chance of making a run is Florida State, the 9th seed in the West.
Anyway, enjoy if you're into this sort of thing. If not, just enjoy the last three weeks of this most excellent of recent seasons.
| Midwest | Second Round | Sweet Sixteen | Regional Finals | Final Four | National Finals | Champion | ||
| 1 | Kansas | 98.28% | 83.17% | 63.63% | 46.60% | 34.38% | 21.97% | |
| 16 | Lehigh | 1.72% | 0.15% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| 8 | UNLV | 46.58% | 7.33% | 2.71% | 0.89% | 0.30% | 0.08% | |
| 9 | N. Iowa | 53.42% | 9.35% | 3.75% | 1.35% | 0.49% | 0.14% | |
| 4 | Maryland | 86.36% | 57.74% | 20.20% | 10.62% | 5.64% | 2.41% | |
| 13 | Houston | 13.64% | 3.66% | 0.34% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% | |
| 5 | Michigan St. | 85.79% | 36.76% | 9.25% | 3.71% | 1.50% | 0.47% | |
| 12 | New Mexico St. | 14.21% | 1.84% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| 3 | Georgetown | 88.50% | 60.50% | 30.62% | 11.55% | 6.02% | 2.51% | |
| 14 | Ohio | 11.50% | 2.52% | 0.32% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| 6 | Tennessee | 52.49% | 19.94% | 6.79% | 1.62% | 0.57% | 0.15% | |
| 11 | San Diego St. | 47.51% | 17.05% | 5.45% | 1.21% | 0.40% | 0.10% | |
| 7 | Oklahoma St. | 40.42% | 10.60% | 3.83% | 0.79% | 0.24% | 0.06% | |
| 10 | Georgia Tech | 59.58% | 20.07% | 9.03% | 2.45% | 0.96% | 0.29% | |
| 2 | Ohio State | 95.38% | 68.80% | 43.91% | 19.12% | 11.18% | 5.35% | |
| 15 | UCSB | 4.62% | 0.53% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| West | Second Round | Sweet Sixteen | Regional Finals | Final Four | National Finals | Champion | ||
| 1 | Syracuse | 93.85% | 65.64% | 47.61% | 28.48% | 13.08% | 6.26% | |
| 16 | Vermont | 6.15% | 0.87% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| 8 | Gonzaga | 32.01% | 7.59% | 3.05% | 0.85% | 0.16% | 0.03% | |
| 9 | Florida St. | 67.99% | 25.91% | 15.18% | 6.78% | 2.18% | 0.74% | |
| 4 | Vanderbilt | 59.10% | 27.12% | 8.95% | 3.18% | 0.79% | 0.21% | |
| 13 | Murray St. | 40.90% | 15.14% | 3.90% | 1.08% | 0.20% | 0.04% | |
| 5 | Butler | 55.37% | 33.26% | 12.87% | 5.34% | 1.58% | 0.49% | |
| 12 | UTEP | 44.63% | 24.48% | 8.31% | 3.03% | 0.77% | 0.21% | |
| 3 | Pittsburgh | 88.46% | 41.17% | 14.48% | 5.91% | 1.64% | 0.48% | |
| 14 | Oakland | 11.54% | 1.18% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| 6 | Xavier | 52.16% | 30.57% | 12.01% | 5.40% | 1.69% | 0.56% | |
| 11 | Minnesota | 47.84% | 27.08% | 10.10% | 4.34% | 1.28% | 0.40% | |
| 7 | BYU | 76.24% | 40.60% | 26.76% | 15.48% | 6.65% | 2.99% | |
| 10 | Florida | 23.76% | 6.54% | 2.47% | 0.77% | 0.16% | 0.03% | |
| 2 | Kansas St. | 95.34% | 52.55% | 34.07% | 19.33% | 8.10% | 3.55% | |
| 15 | North Texas | 4.66% | 0.30% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| East | Second Round | Sweet Sixteen | Regional Finals | Final Four | National Finals | Champion | ||
| 1 | Kentucky | 94.50% | 64.31% | 34.91% | 21.65% | 9.97% | 4.69% | |
| 16 | E. Tenn. State | 5.50% | 0.64% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| 8 | Texas | 66.95% | 26.58% | 11.05% | 5.42% | 1.87% | 0.65% | |
| 9 | Wake Forest | 33.05% | 8.47% | 2.28% | 0.75% | 0.16% | 0.03% | |
| 4 | Wisconsin | 89.90% | 64.60% | 38.39% | 25.01% | 12.28% | 6.18% | |
| 13 | Wofford | 10.10% | 2.44% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% | |
| 5 | Temple | 74.50% | 28.13% | 11.93% | 5.76% | 1.95% | 0.66% | |
| 12 | Cornell | 25.50% | 4.83% | 1.01% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.01% | |
| 3 | New Mexico | 76.55% | 30.76% | 9.32% | 2.49% | 0.57% | 0.13% | |
| 14 | Montana | 23.45% | 4.00% | 0.48% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| 6 | Marquette | 50.99% | 33.48% | 13.26% | 4.68% | 1.42% | 0.43% | |
| 11 | Washington | 49.01% | 31.76% | 12.28% | 4.23% | 1.25% | 0.37% | |
| 7 | Clemson | 52.33% | 22.45% | 13.49% | 5.44% | 1.89% | 0.66% | |
| 10 | Missouri | 47.67% | 19.43% | 11.24% | 4.29% | 1.41% | 0.47% | |
| 2 | West Virginia | 94.43% | 57.65% | 39.87% | 19.92% | 8.63% | 3.82% | |
| 15 | Morgan St. | 5.57% | 0.47% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| South | Second Round | Sweet Sixteen | Regional Finals | Final Four | National Finals | Champion | ||
| 1 | Duke | 99.13% | 80.51% | 64.72% | 51.52% | 37.77% | 24.83% | |
| 16 | Ark-Pine Bluff | 0.44% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| 16 | Winthrop | 0.44% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| 8 | California | 63.72% | 14.25% | 7.63% | 4.02% | 1.77% | 0.65% | |
| 9 | Louisville | 36.28% | 5.20% | 2.08% | 0.81% | 0.26% | 0.06% | |
| 4 | Purdue | 74.33% | 40.88% | 11.69% | 6.26% | 2.81% | 1.05% | |
| 13 | Siena | 25.67% | 7.62% | 0.99% | 0.29% | 0.07% | 0.01% | |
| 5 | Texas A&M | 48.14% | 24.35% | 5.93% | 2.83% | 1.11% | 0.36% | |
| 12 | Utah State | 51.86% | 27.15% | 6.96% | 3.45% | 1.41% | 0.48% | |
| 3 | Baylor | 88.57% | 59.16% | 36.31% | 13.37% | 6.57% | 2.71% | |
| 14 | Sam Houston St. | 11.43% | 2.36% | 0.42% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 47.17% | 17.55% | 7.57% | 1.72% | 0.54% | 0.14% | |
| 11 | Old Dominion | 52.83% | 20.94% | 9.61% | 2.36% | 0.80% | 0.22% | |
| 7 | Richmond | 47.05% | 16.88% | 5.96% | 1.19% | 0.33% | 0.07% | |
| 10 | Saint Mary's | 52.95% | 20.35% | 7.72% | 1.68% | 0.51% | 0.12% | |
| 2 | Villanova | 94.62% | 62.24% | 32.38% | 10.46% | 4.57% | 1.66% | |
| 15 | Robert Morris | 5.38% | 0.53% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Play-In Game | ||||||||
| 16 | Ark-Pine Bluff | 59.97% | ||||||
| 16 | Winthrop | 40.03% | ||||||
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