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Tennessee Volunteers [E3] @ Kentucky Wildcats [E1]: 2010 SEC Tournament Game Preview

The Tennessee Volunteers dispatched the Mississippi Rebels handily last night, dealing a perhaps fatal blow to the NCAA tournament hopes of Ole Miss and further polishing Tennessee's already sterling NCAA Tournament résumé.

For the third time this season, the Vols and the 'Cats engage in basketball combat.  This is the rubber match between these two rivals, and it is fitting that they face off in "neutral" floor the SEC Tournament.  Normally, Kentucky has almost a home-court advantage in cases like this, but because the SEC Tournament is in Nashville, I expect a really strong Volunteer presence today.

The games these two teams played coming into this game could not be more different.  Kentucky struggled to beat a game but under-talented Alabama Crimson Tide team, and Tennessee easily handled the more talented Ole Miss Rebels.  Based on those two games alone, you have to have a significant bit of concern if you are a Wildcat fan.  The Volunteers are playing really good basketball right now, and Kentucky, based on their last couple of efforts, not so much.

More after the jump

Star-divide

As usual, we have our game dashboard, and as always, we thank Sylvar for putting it together:

 

Four Factors Analysis

Move that left-hand slider over to show about the last five games, and what we see there is not whatsoever encouraging as far as efficiency goes.  UT has been less efficient than Kentucky offensively, but they have been steady and amazingly consistent.  Kentucky has been up, down and seems to have leveled off a bit.

But the defensive efficiency is where we need to worry.  UT is significantly better than UK lately, holding opponents to around 88 points/100 possessions, or under .9 points/possession.  That, combined with UK's recent up and down 3-point shooting, really give me cause for concern.

A quick look at the Four Factors on offense reveals nothing too worrying, and it is notable that the Vols are turning the ball over more than UK is right now.  In fact, Kentucky is in the 17% turnover range, which should mean that they are beating everybody's brains out.  The reason they aren't is that the 'Cats are no longer dominating the offensive glass.  In fact, they have been beaten on the offensive glass three games in a row.  The good news is that we dominated the Volunteers in Knoxville in the area of offensive rebound%.

Defensively, the Vols have been better, especially lately.  They are holding teams to 42% eFG%, and last game in Knoxville, they held the 'Cats to a dismal 37% eFG% while shooting 53% themselves.  It's also important to note that the Vols are taking better care of their defensive boards right now than the Wildcats are, although they do tend to put teams on the line a lot, and that has really been the difference for Kentucky in the last few games.

As far as the miscellaneous stats go, there isn't much difference to talk about.  Both teams are shooting respectable percentages from three, but UK had a really bad game yesterday while Tennessee had about an average day from the arc.

 

Volunteer Roster


Tennessee Volunteers Basketball Roster

# Pos. Comments W H College
Joshua Bone 24 G - 195 6-3 junior
Quinn Cannington 11 G - 165 6-4 senior
Wayne Chism 4 F Starter 246 6-9 senior
Melvin Goins 21 G - 195 5-11 junior
Kenny Hall 20 F - 220 6-8 freshman
Scotty Hopson 32 G Starter 200 6-7 sophomore
Michael Hubert 10 G - 203 6-2 junior
Jeronne Maymon 34 F - 240 6-6 freshman
Bobby Maze 3 G Starter 195 6-3 senior
Skylar McBee 13 G - 190 6-3 freshman
Emmanuel Negedu 5 F - 218 6-7 sophomore
Steven Pearl 22 F - 232 6-5 junior
J.P. Prince 30 G Starter 205 6-7 senior
Cameron Tatum 23 G - 197 6-6 sophomore
Brian Williams 33 C Starter 278 6-10 junior
Renaldo Woolridge - G - 208 6-8 sophomore

 

Volunteer Player Stats


FG 3PT FT Rebounds Misc
G M M A Pct M A Pct M A Pct Off Def Tot Ast TO Stl Blk PF PPG
Wayne Chism 32 26.3 4.5 9.7 46.9 0.9 2.9 30.9 2.7 3.6 74.6 2.1 5.2 7.2 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.4 2.8 12.6
Scotty Hopson 32 27.8 4.9 11.0 44.4 1.4 4.3 33.8 1.3 2.3 59.7 1.0 2.5 3.5 1.3 2.0 1.0 0.2 1.4 12.5
Tyler Smith 12 26.8 3.9 6.8 57.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 3.8 5.5 69.7 1.3 3.3 4.7 3.7 1.3 1.4 0.3 2.0 11.7
Bobby Maze 32 25.1 3.4 8.3 41.7 0.8 2.9 25.8 2.2 2.6 82.1 0.5 2.1 2.5 3.1 1.4 0.7 0.1 1.6 9.8
J.P. Prince 32 24.3 3.3 6.5 51.4 0.3 1.0 34.4 2.3 3.7 63.0 1.2 2.6 3.8 2.9 2.3 1.6 0.5 2.5 9.4
Cameron Tatum 24 17.2 2.8 5.5 50.0 1.0 2.5 39.3 1.3 1.9 65.2 0.5 1.9 2.4 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 7.8
Melvin Goins 26 15.9 1.8 4.8 38.4 0.4 1.5 28.9 1.2 1.8 62.5 0.3 1.8 2.2 2.0 1.2 1.0 0.0 1.8 5.3
Brian Williams 22 17.5 2.2 4.5 48.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.3 58.6 2.5 3.2 5.8 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.7 2.5 5.1
Kenny Hall 30 13.2 1.6 2.7 59.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.4 54.8 1.5 1.6 3.2 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.6 2.0 4.0
Skylar McBee 30 14.1 1.1 3.2 33.0 0.8 2.6 31.6 0.7 0.8 88.0 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.7 3.7
Renaldo Woolridge 26 14.0 1.3 3.3 38.4 0.6 1.8 31.9 0.5 0.9 58.3 0.9 2.2 3.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.4 1.5 3.7
Michael Hubert 4 2.0 0.8 0.8 100.0 0.8 0.8 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.3
Joshua Bone 11 10.4 0.5 2.2 25.0 0.4 1.5 25.0 0.2 0.2 100.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.6 1.6
Steven Pearl 26 10.4 0.7 1.3 51.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 20.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 1.4
Quinn Cannington 7 1.4 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3


Final Analysis

This is going to be a tough game for both teams.  Tennessee has the most to gain by winning this game, as defeating the Wildcats would no doubt do wonders for improving what already figures to be a pretty high seed.  I give the motivation edge, therefore, to the Vols.

As far as current team status is concerned, Tennessee seems to have reached their maximum effectiveness on both sides of the court, while Kentucky seems to still be searching for consistency.  That is mostly due to the maturity of the Tennessee team, and the youth of the Wildcats.  But time is running out for Kentucky to find their game, and if they don't find some answers in this game, they will have an extra day to ponder the matter at home.

This game, to me, looks like a critical moment in Kentucky's development pre-tournament.  They are facing a top 15 team in a neutral site with solid fan support from both sides, something they will run into in the NCAAs after the second or third round.  This is a game between two foes who know each other, and who are well matched at every position, including the bench.  If the Wildcats lose here, we may have to revise our high expectations for the NCAA tournament.

Kentucky is out of time.  This is one of their final exams before the Big Dance, and failing this one will bode ill for UK's tournament prospects.  But if the 'Cats succeed, and then follow that success up with a win on Sunday, it could indicate that Kentucky is finally ready for the Tournament.

No prediction today.  This is a pick-em game for me, even though the Wildcats are favored by 2.5 points.

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I have to disagree

on a couple of points. First I think team pride will bring UK into this game with as much motivation as UT. These guys will want to prove they are the best. Secondly, I don’t think a loss will be as devastating as you think. It could serve to drive home a sense of urgency that they will need in the NCAA. The game today will be war and should be for the SECT title, not a semi.

by kywineman on Mar 13, 2010 11:02 AM EST reply actions  

Not devastating...

But very telling. The sleep walkers need to wake up and play today.

by sylvar on Mar 13, 2010 11:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Tru needs more Zen !!! '-)

It will be okay Tru. Go Big Blue !!!

And, I want to share a couple tweets. This one was posted last night by UKAthleticNews and is very cool.
UK fans are awesome.

UKAthleticsNews
  
UT fan paid $62 to play Rocky Top at a bar. UK fans instantly paid $100 to stop the song. The power of Big Blue Nation continues. about 10 hours ago via txt

And here is one that lists info to get little audio messages from Coach Cal, it says for free.

Call (toll free), 888-659-7863; Go on-line at http://coachcal.lexy.com or Text: ADD COACH CAL to 68948. Two posts are already up & its FREE!

Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!

by a2d2 on Mar 13, 2010 11:14 AM EST reply actions  

OK....now I have to clean the coffee off the screen.......

and Id have paid $200………that is absolutely hilarious……!!!!…….great job a2…..

You guys are gonna have to get the Cats through without me on the blog this afternoon…..will be where I cannot get the net. But the Cat in the Hat will be on duty nevertheless………

Now we get to see how much these guys love ORANGE juice…….personally I like it freshly squeezed and all of the pulp removed…..

I AM THE CAT......The Cat In The Hat!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Mar 13, 2010 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

I 'hate" that song...lol

Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!

by a2d2 on Mar 13, 2010 11:23 AM EST up reply actions  

I do too, but I love the Osborne Brothers......It just kills me that UT took that song to use....

maybe we should get someone to write them another one……I have to confess, it was one of the first songs I ever learned to play on guitar, because I played it with them when they would visit an uncle of mine who played with them in the past…..one of my best child hood memories.

I AM THE CAT......The Cat In The Hat!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Mar 13, 2010 11:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Another note, you can listen to the audio messages

listed above online without signing up, in case you are interested.

Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!

by a2d2 on Mar 13, 2010 11:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Go Big Blue!

They are about to close the door on my plane so I will most likely miss the first half, so root extra hard for me.

by Strangeite on Mar 13, 2010 11:37 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Are you trying to tell us the cat is stuck on the roof, Tru?

A man called home from a business trip and asked his brother how the cat was doing.
“The cat’s dead, bro. Sorry he got hit by a car.”

In shock, the travelling brother said “You shouldn’t tell it that way, it’s too shocking. You should have said the cat’s stuck on the roof and you can’t get it down. Then the next time I call, you could say the cat fell off the roof and is gravely injured. Then next time, you say the cat died. That eases me into it. Understand?”

“Yeah, I see your point” said the house-sitting brother.

“Ok, well, how’s mom?”

“Mom is stuck on the roof and I can’t get her down.”
==========
Ok, here’s how I see it for the Wildcats. They will be lucky to make the Final Four. By this time of the season, they should be putting opponents into deep graves. We can’t expect the “Comback Cats” to materialize this year.

Youth and lack of urgency is shouting its tale loud and clear. But I have to say, it’s been a wonderful ride so far, and I’m going to enjoy it until it ends. Sorry folks, I just don’t see UK beating two of the other projected Final Four teams (KU, Syracuse). Our only hope is to somehow end up in the finals against Duke, whom I think we can handle pretty well. But really, I don’t see this team staying awake long enough to even get there.

OK, you may begin stoning me to death now.

We're all just a banana peel away from eternity.
ICQ: 591535544
Yahoo IM: jacksbrain

by SD_UK_FAN on Mar 13, 2010 11:51 AM EST reply actions  

On the nose

Couldn’t have said it better. I have no expectations for the NCAA’s. I know this team could hit a UAB style buzzsaw in any round.

by sylvar on Mar 13, 2010 12:02 PM EST up reply actions  

If this team doesn't get it by now,

they never will.

We're all just a banana peel away from eternity.
ICQ: 591535544
Yahoo IM: jacksbrain

by SD_UK_FAN on Mar 13, 2010 12:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I know...

I always watch how team close out the season when I am filling out my brackets….You want to see them turn it on and start to gel, but that hasn’t happened. When I say gel, I am not talking about chemistry, I am talking about efficiency of movement. Still too sloppy

….of course being able to hit a wide open 3 every once and a while can cure a lot of things.

by sylvar on Mar 13, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions  

And KU and Syracuse

are putting opponents into deep graves? Consider the first stone tossed.

by kywineman on Mar 13, 2010 12:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Think of it like this, Wineman...

We have Snap-on tools to do the job. They have craftsman tools. We should be beating teams like redheaded stepchildren.

We're all just a banana peel away from eternity.
ICQ: 591535544
Yahoo IM: jacksbrain

by SD_UK_FAN on Mar 13, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions  

UT beat KU and UK (once), and we beat UT (once, with another one to be soon decided)

Both UK and KU have 2 losses. What kind of tools did the Vols use in these 2 wins? Just askin’ ’-)

Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!

by a2d2 on Mar 13, 2010 12:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Their own tools.

My point is, wineman, though you may refuse to see it, is that UK has the best tools in the country by far, but we haven’t been using them. If we do so, we’re a head and shoulders above every team in the country.

We're all just a banana peel away from eternity.
ICQ: 591535544
Yahoo IM: jacksbrain

by SD_UK_FAN on Mar 13, 2010 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

that's my point, wineman

Well, I mean, I’m not accusing you of stealing it : ) Just that I agree with you. We could go out early, but so could anyone else. If we were putting opponents into deep graves by now—though that would be awesome—we’d be the only team around that was doing so. I think we should be comparing our team with other actual teams, rather than with some ideal dream team in our minds.

by blue kentucky girl on Mar 13, 2010 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Absolutely,

we exist in reality, not fantasy, at least most people do. We are winning and that is what matters. One of the most important intangibles in the NCAA tourney is the ability to find a way to win even when your comfort zone has been taken away.

by kywineman on Mar 13, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions  

But a sign of a great team...

is the ability to exert your will on the tempo of the game….everybody seems to be able to take away our comfort zone.

by sylvar on Mar 13, 2010 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Just mark my word, wineman.

I’m not living in fantasy. It’s reality that this UK squad tends to underachieve, and that a team which does so in March is almost certainly doomed. What is it you don’t get, pard?

We're all just a banana peel away from eternity.
ICQ: 591535544
Yahoo IM: jacksbrain

by SD_UK_FAN on Mar 13, 2010 1:06 PM EST up reply actions  

My point of comparision..

is the 96’ team. That is the only other UK team I can remember that had this level of talent….Now I don’t know if you got to watch that team play or not, but they were surgical. They just absolutely dissected other teams. That was an actual team and one I had hoped this teams play would approach….that said, I am not saying they can’t win it all….just saying I wouldn’t be surprised by a second round exit with the current level of play.

by sylvar on Mar 13, 2010 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, I'm going a tad bit further.

I would actually be surprised (albeit very pleasantly) to see us get there.

We're all just a banana peel away from eternity.
ICQ: 591535544
Yahoo IM: jacksbrain

by SD_UK_FAN on Mar 13, 2010 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

While one cannot

jump to too much of a conclusion after one game, perhaps, retrospectively, the annihilation of UT today will alleviate some of your angst.

by kywineman on Mar 13, 2010 3:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I did see 96, I was a freshman in college that year.

You’re right, they were absolutely amazing, the best I’ve ever seen. They’d kill us now…if Delk and co weren’t a bit past their playing days. Luckily, though you’re right they are an actual team—to point out the obvious, they’re also a historical one. Wouldn’t want to face a Walton/Alcindor 60s era UCLA team either ; )

Comparing us against college teams that are playing in the NCAA THIS year, I don’t think you’ll find any team that has a better shot than we do. I definitely get your point, and yeah, perhaps we’ve underachieved compared to what could have been. I just feel like the actual-current-team comparasion is a more logical and useful tool in judging our chances, than is comparing our team to how good the team could theoretically be, or comparing them to legendary teams of the past.

by blue kentucky girl on Mar 13, 2010 1:14 PM EST up reply actions  

By the way, Mom is fine. No worries!

;)

We're all just a banana peel away from eternity.
ICQ: 591535544
Yahoo IM: jacksbrain

by SD_UK_FAN on Mar 13, 2010 11:56 AM EST reply actions  

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