Alabama Crimson Tide @ Kentucky Wildcats: 2010 SEC Tournament Game Preview
From now on, the game previews are going to be somewhat abbreviated, as they will be coming thick and fast for the most part, and these are all teams we have played before in the regular season.
After a remarkable comeback yesterday against the Carolina Gamecocks, the Alabama Crimson Tide win the prize -- a game versus the SEC regular-season champs, the Kentucky Wildcats in the second round of the 2010 SEC Tournament.
Yesterday, Alabama used strong defensive pressure to force the Gamecocks into nine second-half turnovers that helped them erase an 18-point South Carolina lead built up by the Gamecocks with 11:39 remaining in the game. In just over 9 minutes, the Tide turned a large deficit into an 1-point advantage and won the game.
The Gamecock-Tide game yesterday perfectly illustrates the difference between tournament time and the regular season. During the regular season, coming back from such a large deficit is common, but winning the game after doing so is comparatively rare. Usually, the energy required to overcome the lead is too much to sustain. In a one-and-done scenario, though, teams always seem to find extra energy, as the massive rash of upsets we have seen around the country in the early rounds of the conference tournaments emphatically demonstrate.
More after the jump
As usual, we have our game dashboard:
Four Factors Analysis
For this analysis, I am only going to look at the last four games, starting with efficiencies. Move your left-hand slider to the right until you see only four data points to follow along.
For the last four games, Alabama is trending negative on offensive efficiency, but improving defensively. That defensive trend continued last night against the Gamecocks as South Carolina was held to only 38.9% eFG%. Alabama's offense was typically anemic at only 42%.
Versus the Wildcats, Alabama will have to be very good defensively to have a chance, and improve somewhat offensively against the leading defensive club in the SEC. Kentucky averages 1.09 points/possession versus SEC opponents, and the Tide manages just under 1 P/P, and they are facing a defense that holds teams to just over .9 P/P. This looks like a tough spot for the typical Tide OE.
Moving on to the Four Factors, over the last four games the Wildcats have shot better, handled the ball better, and gotten to the line just as often as the Tide. The Tide has done a better job than UK recently on the offensive glass. This slump is somewhat noteworthy, because Kentucky is on a definite downward trend in OR%, and has been rebounding comparatively poorly defensively. UK cannot afford to continue this trend against the Tide.
The defensive Four Factors favor Kentucky only slightly. Both teams have been excellent at holding opponents under 50% eFG%, both teams force turnovers at a decent 18+% clip, and UK has been taking better care of their defensive boards and sending foes to the line less, but the margins are small.
Much has been made of Alabama's 3-point shooting percentage, but they are only shooting 34% in SEC competition, which is better than the Wildcats' 30%, but not much. Kentucky also takes more threes per game than the Tide does. Three point shooting is important for Kentucky, but the trend for the last two Wildcat victories has been positive, and I expect that to continue today. Alabama plays their bench more minutes than UK, and likes a lower tempo. If the Wildcats can get the tempo up in this game, the Tide will be in for a long day.
Crimson Tide Roster
Crimson Tide Player Stats
Final Analysis
As before when we played the Crimson Tide, shooting will be the major factor. Kentucky significantly outshot Alabama in their last meeting in Rupp Arena, 49% eFG to 36.5%, and got to the line against them at a prodigious rate. If these trends continue today, the result is likely to be very similar.
What will decide the game for Kentucky today is defense. The Tide are going to hold UK, most likely, to under 50% eFG -- they are a solid defensive squad. If Kentucky can hold the Tide under 40%, it will be very hard for Alabama to win this game absent a turnover fest or surrender on the boards by the Wildcats.
The main guy the 'Cats must focus on in this game is Mikhail Torrence -- he is the ice that chills the Alabama cocktail and is also their leading scorer. But like John Wall, Torrence's game is penetrate and get to the rim or dish, and if he is able to do that against Kentucky, he could wind up getting UK's big people in foul trouble besides getting points and assists. It is critically important that Torrence be contained, and if UK can do that, it will be tough for the Alabama team to generate enough offensive pressure to score consistently on Kentucky.
For Kentucky on offense, the game is the same as it has been all year -- get the ball to the big people and let them do damage, or kick it out for three point shots. Alabama is decent in transition defense, but not good enough to stop early offense opportunities by the Wildcats if they run the floor, and they will certainly try.
The 'Cats are a 12-point favorite for this game, and I believe that will be about right. Kentucky 82, Alabama 70.
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Cats By 7 Or 8 Pts
Bama covers but Cats get W.
by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 12, 2010 9:18 AM EST reply actions
No high scoring affair
I don’t see us scoring that many points against an Alabama team who makes everyone’s offense look ugly. I’ll go with Forty’s margin of seven or eight points. Maybe sixty-seven to sixty.
P.S.
After Syracuse’s loss yesterday, I think if we can beat Alabama that will lock us into the number two overall seed in the tournament. That might put us into the South Regional instead of the East. This is now a high stakes game for us.
If placement is done by proximity then we would go east
Lexington is closer to Syracuse than it is to Houston
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
Watching the game........
Hey guys,
Where are some good places on the net to watch the game? Trying to find something here at work…….
espn360
as far as i know its on espn360.com
by tisbutterboy on Mar 12, 2010 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
ATDHE.net
and justin.tv
I’ve watched most of the games that weren’t on national TV.
People seem to forget that you have to either pay for 360 or have it as part of your cable plan.
by mrmondaynite on Mar 12, 2010 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
The game should show up on ATDHE's list around gametime.
If it’s not there, get to the College Sports area on Justin.tv
by mrmondaynite on Mar 12, 2010 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
I expect a close game
I expect the Cats to play in a way that reflects Calipari’s view of the tournament – that it’s not that important. Alabama on the other hand is playing for a possible NIT berth – that much showed yesterday when they didn’t give up after being down 18.
UK should still win, but it’s going to be one of those games where the lead is always around 5-7 points until right at the end when the fouls start coming.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
Agree
Hopefully we’ll see our team at it’s full potential after the 1st round of the NCAA tourney, but I don’t expect to see it until then. I think this team will be on cruise control until the Big Dance gets down to 32 teams. Not that I want it that way, but that’s probably how it will be.
tend to agree
but Cal knows this game is to solidify a #1 seed – despite Tru’s opinion that it does not matter :)
hopefully the kids step up and start a 9-0 post season run with a bang….
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Mar 12, 2010 11:16 AM EST reply actions
Just being able to think about a 9-0 postseason
is…….wonderful !! Kentucky is baaaaack !!!
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
Blowout Or Nail Biter
Nothing in between, i.e. 15-20 or 5 or less.
"Perhaps the fact that we have seen millions voting themselves into complete dependence on a tyrant has made our generation understand that to choose one's government is not necessarily to secure freedom" - Hayek
The dashboard thingy...
is extra cool!
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
Agree
I think sylvar put it together and it is one of the coolest gadgets (“gadgets”? “widgets”? “gizmos”?) I’ve seen for any sport, not just CBB.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
hey sddbaker....
time to put your theory to test:
Who thought Pearl’s comment about UK’s 3-pt shooting was funny or disrespectful?
I know its not quite the same as Cousins’ Stalling comment, but ….
Have to admit, at first it pissed me off a bit but then i thought it was funny – based on the last few games, i would have to say it is also unfortunately true…..
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Mar 12, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
Pearl wasnt going to give up a chance at a shot like that one.....lol.....
He is just praying it doesnt get any better, because he doesnt stand a chance if it does….
I AM THE CAT......The Cat In The Hat!!!
It was funny
And not disrespectful, because he was clearly joking.
Some say a comet will fall from the sky. Followed by meteor showers and tidal waves.
Followed by faultlines that cannot sit still. Followed by millions of dumbfounded dips**ts.
whad he say?
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
Okay...
Now I know what you’re talking about! Yeah, it was funny, but maybe a tiny bit less respectful than it should have been, especially considering we’re last in the league in 3pt %…which by the way, he mentioned later.
He just wants us to compare to UK in some way! ;-)
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
also sddbaker
one of my ut buddies just emailed Roll Tide to me — i figured the appropriate response was Hotty Totty….
:)
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Mar 12, 2010 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Or...
“It’s a trap!”
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
I actually expect UK to win pretty big today...
Bama is an average team that is pretty athletic but limited offensively. I love UK’s competitve spirit and believe they are rarin’ to go today. We can expect the usual stellar play from Wall, Boogie and Patterson. As always, I think the difference between UK and others comes down to the play of Miller and Dodson. When they are on, UK is going to roll. Add to that, efficient production from Bledsoe and the hustle plays from Liggins, then this game will be a romp.
UK 81 Bama 67
Slower Traffic Keep Right!
SO ready for tip-off.
I’m so ready for tip-off I could scream. I’ve cleaned my entire house top to bottom, started dinner for tonight, done laundry, emailed and face-booked with friends and now I’m just pacing around waiting for our game to start. Whatever will I do with myself for the next hour? I want to watch my ’CATS, and I want to watch them now!!! : )
Whitening strip for the ol' teethies??
Stretching my imagination here… LOL
If your wings don't sweep....
again, check.
I actually use Crest Whitestrips (yellow teeth are a pet-peeve of mine) and they really aren’t time consuming in the slightest, you just put them on your teeth and go about your business, so that won’t really keep me occupied either, but thanks for trying.
I see that the Duke/Virginia game just started, I guess I could always watch that? But, on second thought, maybe I’ll go scrub the toilets once more or schedule a root canal, you know the things that are considered to be more enjoyable than watching Duke? ; )
Amen to that...
Would rather stay here in the man-cave and talk to you folks that watch pUKe U!!
If your wings don't sweep....
Speaking of ready, lunch time at my house... See ya in the Game Thread!!
GO BLUE!!!
If your wings don't sweep....
me too...
came in early to try and get some work done but all i keep thinking about is getting home and watching the game.
I love seeing the Cats play, but glad they did not play yesterday :)
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Mar 12, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
The Cat with the Hat is now ready.....lol......assuming the wife's vehicle isnt ready
this afternoon I will be here for the duration…..
I AM THE CAT......The Cat In The Hat!!!
a2d2
You will happy to know that all Cal wants today is for the Cats to have fun
Slower Traffic Keep Right!
Where you catching the audio from Seve (Eight)??
Tourney time has come and the CBSSports.com link off of UKAthletics has gone to pay sessions…
If your wings don't sweep....

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