Kentucky Basketball: Where is Your Post-season Threshold of Pain?
by Glenn Logan on Mar 10, 2010 5:07 PM EST
in Kentucky Wildcats Basketball
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PrintI don't think anyone would dispute that the Kentucky Wildcats have had a very successful regular season. As we are now on the cusp of that most exciting time of year, the post-season, the time has come to think about the expectations of the Big Blue Nation.
Revisiting this post from back earlier this year, it seems to me that most Kentucky fans who read A Sea of Blue had a pretty good handle when asked the question, "How many REGULAR SEASON games will the basketball Wildcats win this year?"
So now that we know the answer to that one, it's time to ask the follow-on that most non-Kentucky fans tend to ask; "What does success look like for this team in the post season?" Do we rationally expect to win a national championship, get to the Final Four, the Elite Eight, what? At what point would disappointment kick in, and at what point would "I didn't think we could get this far" start cropping up?
More after the jump.
I'll start by just spilling out my thoughts on the matter, and I'll address both the SEC and NCAA tournaments.
For the SEC tournament, anything less than the finals would be troubling. In the finals, it is possible that UK will wind up facing an opponent who needs the game much more than Kentucky does to salvage its post season hopes. Teams like that will often play well above their heads, and the Wildcats could potentially have motivational problems for that game, especially since it falls on Selection Sunday. I could live with a loss in the finals, but I would be most unhappy with a loss in the first two games.
For the NCAA tournament, the inflection point is probably the Elite Eight. I will be disappointed in an elite eight, but I will be a very slightly surprised if Kentucky makes it to the Final Four. So I guess the point is really just beyond the Elite Eight, but since there is no such place, we can call that the point at which this becomes a good post-season that I can be happy with.
A lot of Kentucky's success will depend upon its draw in the NCAA tournament. Even though the high probability is for a #1 seed, this UK team reminds me a bit of the 2005-06 Connecticut Huskies. That team had big, fast, talented players, and they only lost 2 games in the regular season. They were a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, and were nearly undone by a game UK team in the second round thanks to a career game by Patrick Sparks. That Huskies team had similar problems from the perimeter, but they were much more experienced and somewhat less talented. Their bench, though, was all full of talented freshmen.
Connecticut's talent was superior to almost everyone, yet they were unlucky enough to run up against a George Mason Patriots team that was muy caliente, and they burned the Huskies in the Elite Eight in a very close game. Could that be the fate of the 2010 Wildcats? I hope not. It would be painful, but tolerable. Anything less, for me, would be agony of varying degrees.
So now, Big Blue Nation, you know where I stand. Where does your threshold of pain lie?
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Heh,
that one person who thinks they’re going to lose to a 16 seed is smoking some powerful stuff.
And no, it wasn’t me!
by don'tshootmei'macard on Mar 10, 2010 5:32 PM EST reply actions
The poll isn't where they are going to reach
it is where do they have to for it to be successful, so if they only reach the first round it would be successful for that person…then again that would be some powerful stuff to think that is successful
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
wow...this post is pretty familiar...:-)
With the season UK has had to date, the talent level, the fact that the NCAA is fairly weak across the board – they would have to get to an Elite 8 for me to feel OK but at least a Final Four would be a successful post season.
IMO UK is easily one of the four best teams in the country and their run in the NCAA should reflective of their ranking. It makes no difference to me what happened last season or during the regular season. They are too good to flame out before the Elite 8.
Slower Traffic Keep Right!
by SevenRings on Mar 10, 2010 5:52 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Yep Seven (with rights to Eight)
Can you say fanpost? LOL
My wanting to see them have fun, isn’t an option is it? I can’t vote !!
And there is this…..Does that mean you are okay with not changing your name to EightRings anytime soon? ’-)
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
lol....I feel like the guy who calls Mr. Obvious on the Bob & Tom show......
“I NEVER MADE THE CONNECTION”!! My apologizes Seven for being clueless…….thought your name was some Lord of the Rings type reference.
You can't fix "stupid"!
yeah about my "disposal".....or my favorite, the
contractor working on my deck…..laying down naked beside my wife to “measure”!!:-)
You can't fix "stupid"!
It came up during one of the game threads. I remembered.....lol
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
Elite 8
It seems most UK fans easily forget the past few years.. I’ll be happy to make it out of the first weekend. But with the talent of this team I expect them to make the Elite 8 without much of a problem. Anything can happen however when the top 8 teams play, so I won’t be disappointed at any point past that.
If this team plays it's best and looses in the first
game I’ll be disappointed but happy!!
That said…..if this team plays it’s BEST…..which in my opinion they’ve only done twice this year for full games…..they should at minimum be in the Final Four.
My point is…..again in my humble opinion…..this team hasn’t played over it’s head for one second of this season…..if they play like we’ve seen them play for stretches……we’ll hang #8!!!
You can't fix "stupid"!
Definitely Elite Eight
Final Four would be sweet vindication.
I have kleptomania,
but when it gets bad,
I take something for it.
Also,
spot on with the SECT expectations, Tru.
I have kleptomania,
but when it gets bad,
I take something for it.
Agree with SECT too ...
The tournament rarely plays out with the"favorites" winning when they are supposed to, It is a big disadvantage to have to play on Thursday … so I think we should be able to make it to the finals… but, a team like MSU can get hot and make things interesting in the last game.
I voted for Final Four … a far cry from the beginning of the season when I was certain we would win the whole thing. Having watched us play through the season, I feel like we can easily make it to the sweet 16. But after that, we’ll have to have our A game and at times it’s just not there. The freshmen “mistakes” continue and the possibility of a cold outside shooting night lingers. Certainly we have progressed through the season, but to win it all takes steady play and a litlle luck. I do hope we can win it all and that’s how all of my brackets will look …
With further thought...
… I am voting for The Big Enchilada. (I am not smoking some powerful stuff). That would be the most fun for the guys. They want that win, so that is my conclusion. (Anything less would not really make me feel they were unsuccessful though. ’-)
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
a2
I also voted for “The Big Enchilada”
Happy Days are here again The sky is all ways BLUE again Happy days are here again !
I really hope they do it
Not wanting to sound like what some call a craaaazy, irrational UK fan though. I try to be rational about my fandom. I am just supporting the boys and their dreams.
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
I am believing that they have had a great year right now......but if you want me dancing naked up the aisles
while being painted blue and shaking a tambourine, we gotta get the whole Enchilada……of course that will lead to my being put away for a while, but it would be worth it…..
I AM THE CAT......The Cat In The Hat!!!
I AM not going to say,
“that’s a sight I gotta see!”
Elite 8
That’s what I thought at the beginning of the season and I’m going to stick with it. The Cats should be able to out-talent anyone they see in the first 2 rounds, in the Sweet 16 they should still have a significant talent advantage but execution will become more important. The Elite 8 is the first place where they could play their game, play well, and still lose.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
Final Four
Actually, I’m proud of them now! Happy in the elite eight, but think they will go to the Nat Championship game. Hope they lose though so Wall, Cuz and PPat come back for another year! Is that a bad thought?
Do you think that would sway them? lol
I highly doubt it.
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
Let's just win it all
this year and hope they come back for a repeat.
ha ha ha.
You have no idea how funny this is. I was thinking about that "expectations" post of yours just the other day, Tru, however did you know?
I love to look back on those kinds of posts and see what everybody’s expectations were way back when, its great fun.
As far as the two Tourney’s coming up, I’m not going to change my expectations all that much from that earlier post. SEC champion or runner-up (don’t hate, ya’ll) and as far as NCAA tourney, an Elite 8 appearance would still be considered outstanding to my mind.
Oh, and I’m not actually going to vote, superstitious-Sally here, remember?
Heh.
Yeah, it is fun to go back and look at what we thought early in the year and compare that to where we wind up.
I think most of us were having a hard time finding more than 5 regular-season losses, and it turned out right. We could have easily had a couple more, though.
I appreciate all superstitions. I have a few of my own.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
I want it all
but , I dont think a FF is out of the question, but, I’d still be happy with a good close game in the regional finals…….hell, I’m already tickled to death
I want it all
but , I dont think a FF is out of the question, but, I’d still be happy with a good close game in the regional finals…….hell, I’m already tickled to death
I want it all too ...
But mostly because I thought this would be our best chance …. with Wall.
It’s been a might dry around here for a while ya know ….
you know,
it’s interesting that you mention the whole “But mostly because I thought this would be our best chance …. with Wall” mentality, because I think that is what drives a lot of people’s fear about this team and why some find it so hard to just “enjoy”.
The doubt and the fear comes from the fact that they think this year is our best shot at a national title, and they see this outstanding, unprecedented group as our only chance. And they may be right, but I think it’s a bit unfair to put that kind of pressure on these kids, ‘cause just like we didn’t know what was going to transpire this season, we don’t have any idea what great things might still lie ahead.
by BigSkyCat on Mar 10, 2010 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
"Best chance" .... but not ONLY chance BSC
I guess what I was trying to say was that we have had some pretty good players but, it just seems like we have needed a certain piece to the puzzle to get that 8th banner … I have been watching Wall for quite some time now and anyone could see he was a special player – but, we kinda landed a bumper crop with Cousins, Bledsoe, Orton, Hood etal. … and that combination of talent is rare indeed (like fab5 rare or even UK78 rare) – so that’s why I said “best” chance.
With the recruits Cal has waiting in the wings and the talent already here – I expect to be in the NC conversation every year going forward – I’m sure there will be more chances.opportunities
Oh,
I wasn’t really talking about you specifically, though that is probably the way it looked, but rather was just making a general observation based upon what you had said, and while it isn’t a thought that I share, exactly — given our recent drought of long tourney runs, I think the thought process of considering this year either the best or only chance can be thought of as a legitimate fear or thought to have and I totally understand it.
And, agree about going forward. Future looks awfully bright, we should have a great run with Cal. : )
Me too ....... "we should have a great run with Cal"
An awesome recruiter and excellent teacher of the game …
Pitino left us over money … I think Cal is here for the long haul (fingers crossed)
Pitino Stayed 8 Years
I don’t expect Calipari any longer than P.
by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 11, 2010 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
Final Four
Some say a comet will fall from the sky. Followed by meteor showers and tidal waves.
Followed by faultlines that cannot sit still. Followed by millions of dumbfounded dips**ts.
Final Four
Though considering their inexperience, I would be happy with an Elite Eight appearance. I am praying for a trip to the Final Four, though, since I have tickets! Go CATS!!!
Being a #1 seed has been enough of a surprise to me first off.
After last year, I didn’t honestly expect much, even with Calipari and this stellar class. The fact that we’re 29-2 and almost assured a 1 seed is enough for me at this point.
With that said though, I don’t think we have much to worry about until the Elite Eight…and even then I’m not THAT worried.
With the competitive spirits of Wall, Cousins, and Patterson, I feel comfortable in this situation. These kids refuse to lose. With only 2 losses, both of them closer than their scores really show, and the depth of talent, athleticism, and just plain heart you see out of these kids sometimes, I like our chances.
I don’t expect a National Championship at all, and I’ll be thrilled with a Final Four. But I’m not ruling out the NC at all…it’s a very real possibility.
Final Four is my expectation. The Big Encilade is my hope
I believe that’s the consensus
I don’t want the season to end regardless,
(Heh, I barely even noticed when Spring Training started !)
March Madness is exciting, but It’s kinda sad to think we only have a few games left.
No matter where you're at, there you are
Regional finals
Whether they win it all or crash in the first round, this is a Kentucky team that we’ll all remember fondly as the team that got us back to where we belong. This has been an unforgettable year for UK basketball fans.
Amen chi town blues
Happy Days are here again The sky is all ways BLUE again Happy days are here again !
UK Has 2 Or 3 All-Americans On Roster
Last time Cats had 2, 1984. Final 4.
Last time Cats had 3, 1978. NC won.
by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 11, 2010 7:27 AM EST reply actions
I think you made a typo there
We won in 78.
by chicagoblues on Mar 11, 2010 9:44 AM EST up reply actions
NC Won
Means “National Championship” won.
No typo.
by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 11, 2010 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
Tourney Success
I think if you are Kentucky and you are a high seed,then success in the NCAA is making the Final Four. Over the past few years,taking away last year of course,success would have meant different things. Some of those barely .500 SEC UK teams,making the Sweet 16 would have been considered a success. But because of those bleak years,even if this team stumbles early in the tourney,I will be very happy with this season.
I am Nashville bound in 40 minutes!!!! GO CATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by maysvilleblue on Mar 11, 2010 7:37 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Final Four
Anything less would be uncivilized. ;)
It is not worth an intelligent man’s time to be in the majority. By definition, there are already enough people to do that.
by kentuckygirl0724 on Mar 11, 2010 9:30 AM EST reply actions
Thanks
for providing a moment of Charles Barkley zen. (Maybe others did those commercials as well, but he’s the one I remember.) Why is it that things are so much funnier when “The Round Mound of Rebound” says them?
Lol! Very True!
“…And its only 5 bucks and thats why it rocks!” Hahahaha!
It is not worth an intelligent man’s time to be in the majority. By definition, there are already enough people to do that.
by kentuckygirl0724 on Mar 12, 2010 9:50 AM EST up reply actions
Splitting Hairs
If UK gets upset in the second round by a hungry, 8-seed cinderella that has a bunch of NCAA tourny veterans, I will still consider this SEASON to be a success.
But to call it a successful POST-SEASON, I need Final Four.
Anything less and I’ll be disappointed with the POST-SEASON.
But, in my opinion, this SEASON has already been a success.
you are splitting hairs like nobody's business, bg,
but I am completely with you. The SEASON, as a whole, has already been successful. Nothing can change that. Hooray, hooray, Kentucky basketball is back and life is good. I fully believe you can have a successful season, as a whole, even with a very disappointing postseason (I’m thinking of the wonderful season in 2004 when we lost to UAB in the second round…and now I want to stab myself in the eye for thinking of that, because that loss still hurts like a sumbitch). For a what I would consider a successful POST-SEASON, with our regular season, and sky-high talent level, and likely #1 seed, it’s gotta be a final four. If it comes up less than that, I’ll live (…..I suppose) but will consider the post-season, and only the post-season, to be a bit of a disappointment. Like my girl kentuckygirl says, anything less would be uncivilized!
by blue kentucky girl on Mar 11, 2010 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
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