Kentucky Basketball: True Grit
by Glenn Logan on Mar 1, 2010 10:23 AM EST
in Kentucky Wildcats Basketball
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PrintThere has been a ton of talk following the Kentucky Wildcats' loss on Saturday to the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville about how Kentucky's Achilles heel of perimeter shooting has been exposed, and that it is likely to get them beaten in the tournament somewhere along the line. The meme goes that when the going gets tough, the 20'9" shot seems to lengthen out to near half-court.
There is irrefutable statistical evidence that Kentucky has not shot the ball well from 3-point range during the SEC portion of the season. Let's review, first looking at the out-of-conference portion of the schedule:
That looks pretty good to me, except for the ominous dip in the Louisville game, which starts looking more like a trend than a blip in the SEC portion of the season. Let's visualize that, too:
Ugh. Starting with the Mississippi Rebels game, the Wildcats' trend has been decidedly negative. But that represents only seven games out of the season, and while it is fair to point out that the Wildcats have hit a season nadir in 3-point shooting (right now, the trend has dipped below 30%, and 33% is "break even"), can we conclude that this will continue? I will argue, "no," for the following reasons:
- UK has faced zones all year, and are facing them now. The quality of the looks the Wildcats are getting has not changed.
- It is typical to see even good shooting teams go into a mid-season slump. The only question is, will Kentucky come out of it in time to avoid a devastating upset?
- I see no form problems for the Wildcats, only a bit of a confidence problem. Two good shooting games and they should be able to right the ship.
But I didn't write this article to talk about 3-point shooting, I started it out that way to emphasize that Kentucky is unquestionably on a negative trend from three, and is in a slump. That is not debatable.
The real point of all this is to emphasize that at no time has 3-point shooting, good, bad or indifferent, made a significant difference in the confidence of this basketball team to win games. Consider this recap:
- Kentucky was down 18 points to the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks in the first half in Rupp Arena. UK won that game on a last-second John Wall jump shot.
- Kentucky was down 11 to the Georgia Bulldogs in the first half, and won that game.
- Kentucky was down 7 late in the second half at Starksville versus the Mississippi St. Bulldogs and won in overtime.
- The Wildcats were down 19 with 14:05 left versus the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville, and in under 12 minutes came all the way back to tie the game at 65, before eventually giving way in a tough loss.
I use the above as examples of the extreme mental toughness of this Kentucky team. They remind me very much of the 1998 Wildcats who won the national championship -- not in how they play or in terms of talent, but in their mental approach to the game, treating deficits that might cause a lesser team to panic as though they are just a temporary setback that they will certainly overcome.
I cannot but think that, despite their current shooting woes, the confidence, and ability to summon points seemingly from hapless shooting, will serve Kentucky well in the tournament. Eric Crawford has companion piece to this one that seems too heavy on concern to me.
Everybody prefers a team that will dominate a game from start to finish, but this has rarely been the style of the 2010 'Cats. Many times this season, the Wildcats have run off to big leads and lost interest in the game, allowing opponents to come back and make it competitive. Every single time that has happened,the Wildcats have prevailed, but fans and analysts always fear this tendency. But Kentucky fans should not fear it, because the 1998 wildcats also had this tendency, albeit to a lesser degree. The 1998 'Cats favored allowing opponents to run off to big leads, only to come back and beat them, rather than surrendering a lead and having to play a tight game that had been uncompetitive.
Some might argue that the 1998 team was much better 3-point shooting team, but over the season, there were only 36.7% from 19'9". This UK team, despite its recent slump, is still shooting 34.7% on the year from a foot further back. Yes, two percentage points makes a difference -- about 1 point per game -- but that is not terribly significant.
The point of all this is to soothe the mind of those who may be concerned. There is nothing wrong with the Wildcats, young as they are. In fact, there is something very good about them, and that is their toughness and supreme confidence in themselves and each other, and the fact that giving up is not to be found anywhere in their DNA, even through the most powerful scanning electron microscope.
I believe they will apply that same attitude to their shooting woes -- remember how they were supposed to be such poor shooters coming into the season, only to average 40.6% from the arc the first half of the season? There is no reason to believe that cannot return in time for tournament play.
Perhaps I'm optimistic, but history provides me with reason to be.
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About 3 pt shooting and mental toughness..
I think these young cats get down on themselves when they make a mistake, causing more mistakes snow-ball effect.
I think they just need to take the open shots (there will be a lot of 3 chances in zones usually) and just go from there, and don’t think about the score, the stats, the fans or opponent fans and just be “unconscious” baby!
Thats how our teams back in the day would play, just go for it b/c the talent is there, eventually the statistic portion of the game will fall into place w/ the caveat that the player isn’t thinking about it too hard or is too hard on themselves for 1 offensive mistake.
I felt sometimes they were settling for the 3 to early in the shot clock....
They have to pull the defense out by penetrating, kicking out and then making the open 3. Defenses are going to continue to pack it in the zone until we “shoot” them out of it,
Look for more of the same at Georgia on Wednesday.
This time of the season..
the mental toughness either takes over, or fails you. The coach who can weather the physcological battle the best, usually comes out on top. I believe Cal is very good at this, and is addressing it as we speak. IMO.
Tru: An article well written and so needed.
I put on my facebook the other day that I really felt the three killed us on Saturday, BUT it as more about we would have scored more points and we shouldn’t have tried as many threes as we did. I am not a college coach but I have taught my girls, if you shoot the three and you don’t get it, you most likely are creating a turnover so make darn sure that you can make that three before you shoot it……..basically telling my girls that I DON"T want them taking alot of threes. I know its different in high school and college BUT, don’t take the three unless you are ready and don’t take it out of desperation(unless of course you are down by three with seconds left). We have made threes when necessary lately. Again we are 27-2! Most of the time, the good three point shooting teams have a deficit somewhere else as in no big men inside. We don’t have that issue……..yes we need to improve on the three a bit but we need to focus on our inside and don’t make so many stupid attempts on the three as we did on Saturday.
I would normally agree...
But in a zone, you have to show you will shot it. Also, w/ our big men inside and a strong offensive rebounding team, we are likely to get the rebound if a miss occurs..but we need to take more to force that zone off of us.
After that, man to man, its over, we win. Just my 2 cents though.
by kentuckyrules on Mar 1, 2010 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
Also, as a 2nd note...
Zones basically dare you to shoot. A pass fake, cross court pass or even a shot fake can break down a zone and leave openings.
If you show that you are gonna take the dare and shoot it, eventually, the zone will go for that shot fake/dribble penetration for the big guys or baseline pass. Even if you miss enough 3’s they are still gonna go out and challenge it (most of the time).
by kentuckyrules on Mar 1, 2010 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
Not all Zones
Dare you to completely shoot the 3, even if you don’t make them. Any team facing a zone can get a good look, if they work hard enough, or if the defense is denying that shot they can hit it inside. The brilliance (so-to-speak) of Bruce Pearl’s zone that he’s brought out for Cal over the years — ever since the 1 v 2 matchup when the Vols beat Cal @ Memphis — was that it’s a sagging zone. You get the ball inside and the defense always collapses, it always comes in to help guard against the bigs. It 100% dares you to shoot, and if you can’t knock down the big shots with any form of consistency then that type of zone wins. Not only that, but this version of the Zone — I dunno what it’s called, I won’t profess any massive basketball IQ, as I’m just going with what I’ve seen before from the zone Pearl uses — doesn’t possess the same general weakness against rebounding as other zones seem to, as evidenced both by the past games against Cal and this past game against Kentucky, when the rebounding edge was very, very close.
In that 1 v 2 matchup Memphis made 8 first half 3’s to jump out to a lead — albeit a small one because the Vols played wonderful interior defense and executed well on offense — but Pearl stuck with the same zone scheme even after a 5 for 8 start from 3-land by Cal. Tennessee, obviously, came back and won that game and only a supremely talented PG (Derrick Rose) kept the Tigers in it.
Tennessee Fans: We win at teh Internet!
by bobo_the_vol on Mar 1, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
agree....
pearl has always said he will allow cal to beat him if cal’s team makes 3’s…
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Mar 1, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
I agree 100%
You should never shoot the three for the sake of shooting the 3. If it is open in the context of our offense (which when working, seems to be a touch by Big Cuz), IE passed out of the post, then yes. Otherwise, Wall jacking up contested 3’s with a hand in the face before even initiating our offense, is killing us.
"all the way"
BTW
Skip Bayless just said Tennessee beat Kentucky twice this season and had to be corrected and then he said " Oh well, they almost beat them " LOL.
Gotta expose that gap in the zone...
At the free throw line and cutting on the baseline. I see Kansas and Texas do this very well against zones…and they, too, have good big men (which is why zone is played on them to crowd the big guys out). I see Notre Dame do it well too…always a quick pass to the baseline to Harangody (sp?). We gotta get those holes exposed.
was hoping darius miller
would be the one to expose the gap. he is so smooth moving to the elbow/free throw area of the court and making the shot
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Mar 1, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
What we NEED to do better against the zone
Is execute our half court game perfectly. We have 2 of the top bigs in the country, if we swing the ball from side to side against the Zone, we get plenty of the 8 to 12 foot shots that our guys can hit. As pointed out over and over on this blog, our guards are inexperienced, and have not shown patience in the half-court against the zone, and other gimmick defenses.
"all the way"
I think I only saw some really good ball movement a couple of times Sat.
Evidenced by the low number of assists ….. I agree swinging it side to side would help … gotta think Cal is preaching this to them – they just have to execute it.
Darn it Tru!
I’ve been working on something similar, although it’s different enough that I’ll still probably post it.
What concerns me is not so much the poor shooting by itself but rather the pressure it puts on the other aspects of UK’s game to compensate. If the Cats can’t hit from outside it means their defense has to be that much better, their 2pt offense has to be that much better, their offensive rebounding has to be that much better, etc.
For the most part that hasn’t been a problem this season, but against Tennessee it caught up to them when their normally excellent 2pt defense was beaten repeatedly.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
Absolutely post it.
I don’t care. I’m sure your observations will be worth reading, no matter how similar.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
I think you are right Tru....this team and it's abilities do not hinge on the 3
but we had better start defending better….!!!
Resistence Is Futile......We Are Blue
Yeah.
Our transition D was truly cringe-worthy, and I cringed. A lot. :-)
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
Why do you think
our transition defense was so poor on Saturday? What did Tennessee do to create that?
I dont think they created it as much as we just didnt pick up on some
ball screens and no one went inside to help Cousins out……they were trying to get fouls on Cousins, he knew it, the team knew it, and they didnt react by trying to help clog the lane. Cuz knows we cant survive without him in big games, so he cannot force the issue on every drive, because 9 times out of 10 they are going to hit Cuz with the foul
Resistence Is Futile......We Are Blue
I'll be honest
That transition isn’t a normal thing for Tennessee, not really. That might be the most points in transition we had all year. A lot of that was our ability to force turnovers — or the guards giving it away — which is always better at home, seemingly, and a lot of that was very good rebounding and some more of that was all the clanged 3’s. More missed 3’s —> more long rebounds —> more transition opportunities —> more opportunities to exploit a stumbling defense.
Tennessee also seemed to be making a point to make the long pass. It’s been there before for the Vols, but on Saturday the players seemed to want to take those chances, which makes sense considering the location and the opponent. Especially the opponent.
For all the bad of the transition defense, Kentucky did make several superb plays when the Vols had breaks.
Tennessee Fans: We win at teh Internet!
by bobo_the_vol on Mar 1, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
You guys capitalized on a lot of mistakes, by making some really great plays
I think the atmosphere contributed to them being willing to take a few risks, but all in all, you just played a solid game, even when you were faced with the prospect of giving up a 19 pt lead….hats off….
Resistence Is Futile......We Are Blue
Oh, beyond a shadow of a doubt
The atmosphere was key. Tennessee is a much better team at home than not. We not only capitalized on mistakes, though, we didn’t make many in building that lead. Once ya’ll went on your run we were turning the ball over and jacking up contested 3’s. Our defense near the end of the first half was great, too, but Wall managed to just be a bit greater.
Tennessee Fans: We win at teh Internet!
by bobo_the_vol on Mar 1, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
Well ...
… they put a lot of pressure on by running people out every time a shot went up. It’s a risk you take, but when it works, it forces the opponent not to send their guards below the foul line, and UK’s guards are always trying to get to the lane on offense. What UK should have done was told Miller, Dodson or Liggins not to go below the foul line when the ball went inside. You have to have back-court balance, and most teams aren’t quick, athletic, or big enough in the back court to do that. Tennessee is, though.
Two things made this advantageous for Tennessee — one is that when UK gets the offensive rebound, the guards are not usually in a position to help anyway, since about 65% of the time it is Cousins or Patterson.
The second thing is the size and length of UT’s guards. It would force Kentucky to keep a 3 man back. Bledsoe is too small to stop Prince or Maze one-on-one, and besides, Wall and Bledsoe want to get into the paint.
It was a smart coaching move by Pearl, and I’m sure Cal pointed it out, but this is just one of the problems a lot of confidence can create — sometimes the confidence is not warranted. Either that, or they just kept forgetting or made a conscious decision not to listen.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
i also think we were too busy pouting...
that we did not get a foul call and did not get back
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Mar 1, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
they need to just play........and let US do the pouting about bad calls....
we are so much better at that than them anyway……lol
Resistence Is Futile......We Are Blue
One thing was for sure - Cuz doesn't run the floor
It seems like he falls down on one end just to avoid having to be down the floor at the same time as everyone else. He look really lazy to me Saturday. That alone allowed some of the transition offense.
I disagree
I think Cuz runs the floor very well for a big man. I’d say Volunteers jumping on his back and whacking him across the arms and absolutely nothing being called may have slowed him down some on Saturday.
It is not worth an intelligent man’s time to be in the majority. By definition, there are already enough people to do that.
by kentuckygirl0724 on Mar 2, 2010 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
Obviously we need to work on our 3s...
But like Tru said, our average is pretty decent even though late in the season is when it matters most. One thing I’ve noticed is that our offense is having a harder time with the 3-2 zone rather than the 2-3 zone. I would think that the opposite would be true because in a 2-3 we’ll face more challenges on a big men when trying to get the ball inside. But this doesn’t seem to be the case, since most teams that are throwing the 3-2 at us, we’re not responding well enough with effective ball movement on the perimeter to create those gaps in the 3-2 or the back-door screens that’ll free up our big men for the dish down low. Not to mention, the 3-2 is pushing us further back off the 3-point line. 3 defenders up top is also closing in the lanes for our guards to not be able to penetrate in that DDMO. We need to get more effective on the backdoor screens. IMO
I use to love Happy Meals, now I love sushi, but I will always love Kentucky!
they "squeezed" us really well at the top of the key.....
that prevented a few drives that would have killed them and their momentum
Resistence Is Futile......We Are Blue
This is a good article
However, I’d like to dampen spirits just a little bit. Actually, it’s more likely I’ll just serve to make a few people mad and reinforce the good spirits ;-). But I will say this: slumps sometimes aren’t things you come out of, and like-it-or-not you can’t win a National Championship without someone who isn’t in a slump from beyond the arc.
Kentucky team is vastly superior in all aspects to the Memphis team that made a final four run. I’ll be clear on that, and while that Memphis team was always going to be bit by one of their glaring weaknesses — poor FT shooting against Kansas was the true killer — Kentucky still has shown that they might not be able to hit down the big buckets when they need to, and that they suffer for it.
Tennessee isn’t the best team out there. There are teams with better guards and better big men. At some point in this season Cousins and Patterson will be sub-par or the opponent’s defense will be amazing — like the first time UK played Tennessee in Rupp. In that game Wall was amazing without being bad but more importantly.. who was it, Miller?.. hit some major 3-pointers to break the game open and key the fatal run for the Vols. Can Kentucky do that against the best teams, though? Teams like Kansas, Syracuse, Dook, etc?
The biggest worry that I have — okay, it’s not a “worry” because I’m a Vol — is that Kentucky really hasn’t played that brutal a schedule. I believe Kentucky is the only SEC team in the top 15, and most of the Wildcat’s earlier foes have ended up having horrible seasons — I haven’t looked at ya’lls schedule recently, so I can’t say if any of your earlier OOC foes are ranked now.
Tennessee Fans: We win at teh Internet!
Well
the key here is not to panic……..we cannot base ONE GAME on the post season. This is why a Tennessee game is so important. Its a teachable game. Tennessee was the perfect game to learn from because they were an absolute buzz saw. I am glad Tennesse played so hard.
I think that in this case, I will call home court advantage on the road, tournament style..........
in a “neutral” environment, there isnt a team in the country I wouldnt care to take on, including Syracuse and their vaunted “death zone”…..because no one travels like we do…..so “neutral” isnt as neutral as it should be….that can get us over the hump in a tight spot.
Resistence Is Futile......We Are Blue
i wrote an indepth post on this team vs memphis team
back in the fall. other than experience, i believe you are right that this team is better.
memphis got on a roll and hit FT’s all the way to the final game – even then they were not too bad until the last 2 minutes and even then could have won.
to me its clear – the memphis team managed to avoid its weakness (weak FTs) for the first 5 1/2 games of the NCAA, so this uk team needs to get hot from 3 to make its run….
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Mar 1, 2010 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
Who though?
Dodson is floating sideways and as of Saturday short arming his shots; Miller is still fading back some. Bledsoe and Wall are just awful lately (as they were supposed to be when the season started but they both started out shooting much better than scouting reports suggested they would).
PPat may be our best 3 point threat. He had 0 the last 2 years. How crazy is that!
Pat
I agree. I kept saying that they should have gone to PPat for the three on Saturday. He actually has a really nice three point shot and he wouldnt really have been the person expected to be taking it.
It is not worth an intelligent man’s time to be in the majority. By definition, there are already enough people to do that.
by kentuckygirl0724 on Mar 2, 2010 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
The achilles heal on this team is their inability to focus at certain points during the game.
It’s happened ALL year…, when we’re ahead (usually)
At UT, it happened — what — around minute one and through minute five; leading to an 18-0 run. Subtract that run and UK wins. Kudos to UT and their fans during that run, but damn…
Cal has said it time and again. FOCUS, FOCUS
This team needs 40 minutes of focus. All else is secondary, it seems (we did tie the score when we were, what’s the word, focused :).
So I don’t worry about the shooting slump (too much:) as much as about their “sleeping”, their tendency to lose…, what’s the word I’m looking for.
No matter where you're at, there you are
Top 5 in Latest Polls
1. Syracuse (59)
2. Kansas (6)
3. KENTUCKY
4. Duke (1 first place vote in ESPN/USA Today poll—imagine that? lol)
5. Kansas State
Cats fell to where most of thought they would. We’re in good shape for a top seed, so I’m satisfied.
Texas falls out of the polls
and I suspect poor old Purdue is on a downward trend.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/polls
No matter where you're at, there you are
Only in AP Poll
Which is the only one that matters to me. They are still 25 in ESPN/USA Today, however.
whoops my bad
the coaches poll looks like last week’s
sorry
No matter where you're at, there you are
Bad information on CBS' part
I went to ESPN and found
http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/ncb/rankings?poll=2&year=2010&week=17
No matter where you're at, there you are
OK, now the cbs link is correct
I swear it was wrong at 1:06. lol
No matter where you're at, there you are
I just
don’t think Cuse deserves the number one……Kansas has lost to both teams on the road as has Kentucky. Cuse needs to be three not one…..kentucky second and Kansas one.
I said that too
Before I watched the Nova game.
by Incipient_Senescence on Mar 1, 2010 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
Current rankings don't care a bout Nov/Dec anymore
How good are the teams right now? That is why Purdue is falling in the polls, they lost a player for the season so now they will drop like a brick, Cuse is damn good and deserves the #1 as much this week as Texas did when they got it. The RPI rankings take the entire season into account and guess what the top 5 RPI is the top 5 in the polls, I don’t think the polls are really that far off, being in the top 5 makes your chance of a #1 seed damn high.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
Agree.
’Cuse is justly the current #1. They are hot, good and capable of winning it all. They also play in a dern tough conference.
Agreed...
And as great as the Big East is, and I enjoy watching that conference play, IMHO, the Big 12 is a stronger conference. Yeah, they may not have as many ranked, but its VERY hard to win away in the Big 12, whereas I’ve seen more home loses this year in the Big East (Syracuse 2 times, Georgetown a few times, Villa, etc).
So, to me, the home records show how strong you really are (along w/ other things too).
by kentuckyrules on Mar 1, 2010 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
seriously...
this team has lost twice, both times on fired up opponents home court…they have a lot of brutal matchups for most teams and in spite of less than 48 hours turnaround, shooting 2 for a million from three point range, they had it tied at 65 with 2 to play…every tournament champion has this type of game during a six game run…they are who we thought they were, let’s enjoy this team for who they are and enjoy the ride the next 11 games…a game like this just makes them easier to coach!!!
BTW, can you imagine if Meeks had stayed…oh my.
I have often
thought about that but I wonder if like Miller he would have lost his way on this talent heavy team.
and even pp
to a certain extent….
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Mar 1, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
Well it looks like
we all become UofL fans Sat when cuse plays in Louisville.
Happy Days are here again The sky is all ways BLUE again Happy days are here again !
I dont know if I can do that oldcat.......the thought of it makes me wanna puke.....
cant imagine how I will feel actually doing it….
Resistence Is Futile......We Are Blue
Then go Storm!! (Tues game @ SU)
Seem to lose at home this season, its a long shot, but you never know. U of L beat them at home… :)
by kentuckyrules on Mar 1, 2010 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
Nah.
If we win out, we get a #1 seed and Syracuse can’t be the 1 seed in the east because they are the host school. All we need to do is handle our business.
Rooting for UofL is unnescessary and unseemly. I’ll be rooting for the Cards to lose out and play in the NIT.
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
From my fanpost last week...here are the numbers
as of last week…..average points per game and from KenPom, the percentage of points from 3 land. As you can see, other than Purdue we score a very similar average to the other teams but the three point shot is not as big a part of our scoring percentage. Bottom line in my opinion, let Cousins and PP score the three the old fashioned way and don’t sweat the three.
Team APG 3 point%
Duke 79.7 29.0
Kansas 82.6 26.6
UK 80.5 22.9
Purdue 73.4 23.0
Syracuse 81.3 26.6
Villanova 83.8 27.3
You can't fix "stupid"!
Do I Detect A Bit Of ...
Whistling past the graveyard in this piece?
"Perhaps the fact that we have seen millions voting themselves into complete dependence on a tyrant has made our generation understand that to choose one's government is not necessarily to secure freedom" - Hayek
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