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Kentucky Basketball: Is Kentucky Tiring Down the Stretch?

I have seen some concern in several comments worrying that the starters for the 'Cats are playing too many minutes, and inevitable concerns about tired legs.  Coach Cal has shortened the rotation progressively as the season has worn on.

Is this a legitimate concern?  Well, thanks to the excellent John Gasaway at Basketball Prospectus and an article intriguingly titled, "Duke collapsing, and other rites of spring," we have something of an answer.

Gasaway looks at the percentage of minutes the starters are playing for a number of the top teams this year.  He does so to discuss an entirely different point, but it works nicely for the question of Kentucky players as well.  To wit:

Pct of Total
Georgetown 82
Ohio St. 80
Duke 75
Temple 74
Gonzaga 73
West Virginia 73
Syracuse 72
Purdue 71
Kentucky 70
New Mexico 70
Kansas 69
Vanderbilt 68
BYU 67
Kansas St. 66
Villanova 64
Michigan St. 60

More after the jump.

Star-divide

So we can see by the table above Coach Cal is playing his starting players 70% of the minutes.  How does that compare to his Memphis teams?

2008-09  72%
2007-08  67%
2006-07  63%

So looking at his past three teams, it looks like Calipari started using the rotation tightening process rather recently.  I have no idea if he looks at the actual numbers, but it looks like he has settled on around 70% usage for his starters  I would love to do a trend analysis over his last few years to see how much he tightens the rotation around tournament time as compared to the regular season, but that is just a bit too much work for me at the moment.

Still, I think this gives us a pretty good idea that this UK team is in the same ball park as his last two Memphis Tigers teams, and his rotation isn't anywhere near as tight as the Georgetown Hoyas or Ohio State Buckeyes, and is somewhat looser than Coach K at Duke, who is being questioned about tired legs.

Gasaway rightly notes that Duke has a tendency to be very tough early in the ACC season, and then fade late.  At this point, looking at the points per possession numbers of Duke, the fade, if there is one, is quite gradual.  Duke started the ACC season at about 1.22 on offense and .85 on defense, and are now at 1.17 and .91 - a bit of a fade, but not terribly dramatic.

So how is Kentucky doing?  Well, let's take a look at a visualization:

 

 

What you see here are the raw points/possession data for UK and their opponent over the SEC portion of the season in the blue and yellow line respectively.  The red and green line show the average of the pts/possession and opponent pts/possession respectively.  Keep in mind that for the green and yellow line, lower is better.

So what does this graph tell us?  Well, it shows that while Kentucky's offensive PPP is getting worse, its defensive PPP is getting better.  In the final analysis, it is the spread between the two that really matters, and while we can see the spread narrowing over the last two games, overall, it looks pretty darn good.

Of course this graph doesn't account for the toughness of the game, and the last two have been on the road against two very good basketball teams.  But what really stands out to me is that we managed to hold the Vanderbilt Commodores, a very good team, to .78 pts/possession on their own floor.  The 'Dores also held UK way down as well, but that's just indicative of how tough that game was for both teams.  By comparison, neither the Mississippi St. Bulldogs nor the Tennessee Volunteers game look as tough, even though they both looked tough to me.

The bottom line is, just like Duke, Kentucky's offensive efficiency has declined throughout the season, but not a tremendous amount.  Conversely, Kentucky's defensive efficiency has improved by an even greater amount than the offense has declined. 

Obviously, the biggest explanation for that are conference teams having a better understanding of how to play each other as the season wears on, but we cannot completely rule out fatigue as a factor.  But if you will refer to the article I linked above, you will see that Duke's decline last year was in their defensive efficiency, not offensive, and it takes more energy to play defense than offense.

In the final analysis, I am very encouraged by what these numbers tell us.

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Simple reasons for this

just like a touring heavy metal band that gets tighter as the tour goes on; Teams get better as the season goes on. Because almost every team improves, all the numbers are relative, except one.Defensive efficiency. That is one number that does not lie, as it constantly improves even as teams are better and more repeatably drilled on offense.

"all the way"

by ro307805 on Feb 25, 2010 9:10 AM EST reply actions  

Well, I guess the numbers don't lie,

since I’ve been one to question the number of minutes the starters log. If there were a little more point spread during the games, I think we would have seen the starters rested more. Cal said as much, concerned about not getting Wall a breather now and then. But he didn’t have the point differential to do this. Maybe the last 4 games will provide an opportunity to do so. Go Cats!

by UK1972 on Feb 25, 2010 9:19 AM EST reply actions  

stats,stats,stats, and more stats.........they all say the same thing.....

we aint perfect, but we are pretty dang good…….
I can live with that…….The guys seem to be settling in comfortably to their roles. And Cal may just be keeping a few things close to the vest. Good poker players never reveal their entire hand until the last card is played by their opponent. Should we be concerned, not really, and it looks like Ken’s numbers bear that out……EVERY team this year has shown weaknesses….some have shown theirs much more often than others, but have not yet run into an opponent who can capitalize on them…….as someone said on an earlier post….it’s skull cracking time……grind them, squeeze them, pound them, crush them, do whatever you have to do, but put them away……1 game at a time….eliminate them from competition. Now is when we show them why they dont ever want to see us this good again……Resistence is Futile……We Are Blue……..

Remember, we're having fun now!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Feb 25, 2010 9:47 AM EST reply actions  

There are many variables involved

in the analysis of team performance over the course of the season. Our offensive production has decreased and it is probably the result of a combination of factors. I think the clue to the biggest factor lies in increased defensive performance. Good teams get better with practice and game experience. As we face opponents our coaches and players have more information at this time of year on what the opponent does on both ends of the court and we prepare to slow them down offensively and find a way to exploit them when they are on defense. They are doing the same thing to us. All of this adds up to playing more efficiently or being more creative on the spot in order to keep winning. Tired legs are just one factor that can contribute to decreased performance efficiency. Playing your best performers longer but not to the point of tiring them out is the art of coaching. Just how hard to work them in practice is another factor. I am certainly not of the mindset that hard practices on gameday are a good thing. Looking at the stats you have provided us shows that we are really close to Kansas and I think these numbers reflect bench performance quality very well. These are young men, conditioned athletes, and I think they are far more likely to wear down mentally than physically barring nagging injuries. Remember, we are not playing in a vacuum. I see too many comments that assume UK has the total control and power to win by larger margins then they are and I am afraid a lot of this is just wishful thinking.

by kywineman on Feb 25, 2010 10:24 AM EST reply actions  

A pro team

He’s actually treating his rotation much like a pro team. I don’t know how many people watch as much NBA as I do, but most good teams will start with experimenting with rotation and tighten up as the season progresses. By the time the playoffs roll around, they are mainly working with a 7-8 man rotation.

Cal is doing sort of the same thing. Except he’s still trying to decide on minutes for his 3 small forwards and rotation Miller, Dodson and Liggins accordingly. Once he figures out his rotation, likely he will stick with it and ride them as long as they can last.

He also mentioned several times, that the kids are basically supposed to tell him when they get tired so he can sub… competitive players don’t like to come out.

by Hayesfan on Feb 25, 2010 10:36 AM EST reply actions  

I think this is right.

It’s interesting that he subbed more back in 2006, but I do think he is generally substituting in a pattern similar to the pros. I expect, and he has said, that he will tighten the rotation further as we get closer to the tournament, but how much more is the real question.

We’ll see. I do think that our defense is improving, at least over the last few games. There is no question our offense isn’t as efficient as it was. I suspect most of that is due to the fact we are facing teams better prepared defensively.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Glenn Logan on Feb 25, 2010 11:05 AM EST up reply actions  

it is absolutely right...

a couple of things:

1) a couple of years ago, while at father/son camp, i was talking with one of BCG’s assistants about practice philosphy. when i mentioned that Coach Cal shortened practice as the season wore on, the asst responded to another asst standing by “the NBA approach.” i believe this philosophy carries over to games as well.

2) At memphis, it seemed Cal shortened his rotation even more in the NCAA tourney. in my opinion, because the players were not used to the additional playing time it caught up with them in the end (see the final missed FTs at the end by the best FTs on the team). i would be more worried if Cal was not increasing playing time for the core as they need to be ready to play more minutes.

Cal will solve the fatigue in my second statement by adjusting as discussed in the first statement…

only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team

by memphis wildcat on Feb 25, 2010 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

i would also add....

it takes more energy to play good defense. the fatigue is another indicator that the team is working harder on the defense end….

only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team

by memphis wildcat on Feb 25, 2010 11:32 AM EST up reply actions  

I think you are right about that

I also think it is the reason many of Tubby’s teams at UK seemed to shoot so poorly.We invested so much energy in practice, and on defense, that shooting legs were tired.

"all the way"

by ro307805 on Feb 25, 2010 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Isn't this indicative of...

the talk Cal had with Wooden. As I recall, some of the main pointers Wooden gave Cal dealt with playing “too many” players and needing to tighten up the player rotation. From what I can tell, it seems that Cal is just taking some credible advice from a living legend and Hall of Famer! I think he would give our starters more rest if they needed it. Let’s trust in the coach AND John Wooden.

I use to love Happy Meals, now I love sushi, but I will always love Kentucky!

by ukcat1982 on Feb 25, 2010 12:18 PM EST reply actions  

I was thinking the same thing

I think that was his advice to Cal.

Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!

by a2d2 on Feb 25, 2010 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Great Discussion

I would like to break these stats down further though and discuss a sub-set of the starters. How much of the 30% bench play is the rotation at the 3 spot between Dodson, Miller and Liggins? How much is Orton spelling Cousins when foul trouble arises?

I hear what is being said about the NBA rotation but the NBA 7 to 8 man rotation is spread fairly evenly with the possible exception of a few star players like Kobe, Lebron or Wade. It does appear to me that Wall, Bledsoe and Patterson (and Cousins if not in foul trouble) see significant minutes in close games specifically down the stretch. Now I like that Coach Cal does seem to be trying to account for that of late and work Orton in with Cousins and subing for Bledsoe early so he can come back in to play point and spell Wall. Also having Miller who seems to be the 3rd best ball handler come off the bench and be in when Wall or Bledsoe is sitting makes sense. I also like trying to steal a couple of minutes in the first half with Perry in the post.

Also, sometimes I have to think -with Freshman- that extra minutes from the starters might be a good thing .

by LyricSmith on Feb 25, 2010 12:30 PM EST reply actions  

Stats, KY players avg minutes per game

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/teams/stats?teamId=96&sort=avgMinutes
It doesn’t show trends
Very clear that John, Eric and Patrick have seen the most amount of time.

Hack-a-Boogie?
Found an interesting stat on kenpom.com. DeMarcus is the second most fouled player in the country. Maybe everyone else knew this — I didn’t.
http://kenpom.com/leaders.php?c=FDper40

No matter where you're at, there you are

by cincyblue on Feb 25, 2010 1:36 PM EST reply actions  

he's so big...

defender’s cannot miss him :)

only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team

by memphis wildcat on Feb 25, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Calling the game tonight

Who’s calling the game tonight for ESPN2?

by UK1972 on Feb 25, 2010 3:32 PM EST reply actions  

Nessler & Vitale

According to the Herald Leader.

by bob in bg on Feb 25, 2010 4:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Hummel Lost To Boilermakers

Anterior cruciate may end season for POY candidate.

"Perhaps the fact that we have seen millions voting themselves into complete dependence on a tyrant has made our generation understand that to choose one's government is not necessarily to secure freedom" - Hayek

by Wild Weasel on Feb 25, 2010 3:34 PM EST reply actions  

That stinks!

I loved the way that kid played.

Bummer.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Glenn Logan on Feb 25, 2010 5:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah...

They had a right fair chance of making a good run in the Tourney! Hate it for him!

If your wings don't sweep....

by EagleTDL on Feb 25, 2010 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

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