Chasing #1
by JLeverenz on Feb 17, 2010 3:42 PM EST
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PrintNo, not #1 in the polls which - while nice to talk about - has about as much to do with winning a national championship as the color of my socks (insert derogatory shot at BCS). No, this is about being number 1 in the NCAA tournament or more precisely being one of four #1's.
It's been awhile since Cat fans could look forward to March with an excellent shot at a #1 seed - 5 years in fact. In 2005 UK earned a #2 seed in the tournament, but had their shot at a #1 headed into the final two weeks. That year two late losses to Florida likely prevented the Cats from obtaining a non-crooked number next to their name.
This year the Wildcats are one of about 7-8 teams with the opportunity to be a top seed in the tournament. The Cats have entered the most difficult stretch of their season, so I thought it would be good time to check on their competitors and see how the remaining schedules compare.
At this point in the season the teams that can take a #1 seed have pretty much separated themselves from the rest of the pack. To this end, I'm only looking at the consensus top 8 teams based on the myriad of bracket projections available online. These are the teams that can potentially earn a number 1 seed without needing help - i.e. without needing other teams to lose.
These teams are (in order of RPI ): Kansas, Duke, Syracuse, Kentucky, West Virginia, Kansas St, Villanova, and Purdue.
Note: All RPI and records are current as of Wednesday, Feb 17. Tuesday, Feb 16.
Update: Despite what baseline stats has listed on the site, I don't think their RPI has been updated since Tuesday as UK's win over Mississippi St isn't included.
First let's look at these teams based on the Nitty Gritty report used by the NCAA selection committee and provided by Baseline Stats. The teams have been organized according to their consensus seeds in the most recent bracket projections.
1 Seeds
| D1 | SoS | Ncf | Ncf | Cf | Cf | Cf | Road | Neut | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-100 | 100+ | ||||||
| RPI Rank | Conf | RPI | W-L | SoS | Rk | RPI | SoS | RPI | SoS | Rk | W-L | W-L | W-L | W-L | W-L | W-L | ASM | |
| 1 | Kansas | B12 | 0.686 | 25-1 | 0.59 | 11 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 29 | 1 | 8-1 | 2-0 | 6-1 | 2-0 | 5-0 | 12-0 | 19.8 |
| 3 | Syracuse | BE | 0.663 | 24-2 | 0.59 | 10 | 2 | 43 | 7 | 37 | 2 | 6-0 | 3-0 | 3-1 | 2-1 | 10-0 | 9-0 | 16.5 |
| 4 | Kentucky | SEC | 0.662 | 24-1 | 0.56 | 49 | 10 | 83 | 3 | 56 | 4 | 4-1 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 5-1 | 14-0 | 16 |
| 7 | Villanova | BE | 0.649 | 22-3 | 0.571 | 33 | 22 | 146 | 5 | 39 | 2 | 5-2 | 6-0 | 2-2 | 4-1 | 6-0 | 10-0 | 12 |
2 Seeds
| D1 | SoS | Ncf | Ncf | Cf | Cf | Cf | Road | Neut | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-100 | 100+ | ||||||
| RPI Rank | Conf | RPI | W-L | SoS | Rk | RPI | SoS | RPI | SoS | Rk | W-L | W-L | W-L | W-L | W-L | W-L | ASM | |
| 2 | Duke | ACC | 0.666 | 21-4 | 0.596 | 8 | 8 | 36 | 2 | 31 | 3 | 3-4 | 4-0 | 2-2 | 7-1 | 4-0 | 8-1 | 18.2 |
| 5 | West Virginia | BE | 0.658 | 19-5 | 0.613 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 22 | 2 | 5-3 | 5-0 | 2-4 | 3-0 | 6-1 | 8-0 | 10.8 |
| 6 | Kansas St | B12 | 0.65 | 19-4 | 0.601 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 11 | 25 | 1 | 5-1 | 4-1 | 4-1 | 2-3 | 2-0 | 11-0 | 12.3 |
| 10 | Purdue | B10 | 0.637 | 21-3 | 0.557 | 52 | 9 | 78 | 31 | 69 | 5 | 5-2 | 4-0 | 4-1 | 1-1 | 3-1 | 13-0 | 13.2 |
In my opinion, UK's hold on their #1 seed is the most tenuous of their group, due to the lack of top flight teams they have played. Part of that is due to their conference schedule being backloaded and part of it is due to unexpected struggles by some of their traditional non-conference opponents. It's not UK's fault, but the fact of the matter is they have only played two games against RPI Top 25 teams and everyone else has played at least 4. They don't make up ground either as their 3 games against RPI 26-50 teams is par for the course as are their 6 games against RPI 51-100 teams.
"Ah!" you say "But the Cats have games against Vandy and Tennessee coming up! That will change things in their favor!" Well, let's see:
Remaining regular season schedule breakdown:
| School | Games | rSoS | avg rRPI | med rRPI | Road | T25 | T26-50 | T51-100 | High | Low |
| Kansas | 5 | 0.6529 | 62.8 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | Kansas St (6) | Colorado (143) |
| Syracuse | 5 | 0.6667 | 43.4 | 32 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Villanova (7) | Providance (99) |
| Kentucky | 5 | 0.6583 | 49.8 | 58 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | Vandy (13) | Georgia (90) |
| Villanova | 5 | 0.744 | 24.8 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | West Virg. (5) | South Fl. (55) |
| Duke | 6 | 0.6892 | 67.8 | 71.5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | Maryland (40) | Virginia (95) |
| West Virginia | 6 | 0.6486 | 44.5 | 48 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Villanova (7) | Providance (99) |
| Kansas St | 6 | 0.6533 | 65.2 | 64.5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Kanas (1) | Nebraska (123) |
| Purdue | 6 | 0.5855 | 108.5 | 77.5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | Ohio St (31) | Penn St (227) |
What I have here is the remaining games, the combined win percentage of the opponents, their average and median RPI rank, number of road games, games against RPI Top 25, 26-50, and 51 - 100 and their highest and lowest rated opponent.
First off lets dispense with Purdue: the Boilermakers are having a fine season and have a good team, but they have no shot at a #1 seed without help. On the other side is Villanova which has a brutal schedule over their last 6 games - their lowest rated opponent is better than the average for 4 of the other teams.
Notice that every team has about the same number of road games remaining and most everyone has 4-5 games remaining against teams ranked in the top 100 of the RPI. Basically, there is very little schedule advantage for any team, although Villanova has a shot at putting a stranglehold on a #1 seed.
What does this mean for Kentucky? I don't think the Cats can afford to lose more than 1 more game the rest of the season if they want to earn a #1 seed. There simply isn't enough substance in their profile to raise them past the other teams if they lose two or more times. Ultimately I think UK will get a #1 seed because they can dominate a decent SEC while the Big East teams beat up each other and Kansas takes care of Kansas St. - but it'll be a lot closer than popular opinion might think.
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Good Analysis......
but it is not going to matter…..we are going to win both UT and Vandy so there is no question …… ;-)
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
Cleveland rocks!
But James will never be able to get them into the NCAA tourney now!
GO BIG BLUE!!
I think this analysis is exactly right.
I do so want a 1 seed this year. I’d take a 2, but I really want the 1.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
Like Al Davis used to say ... "Just Win Baby!"
The only thing for sure is if we win out we’ll be the #1 seed …. and we will :)
There has been a definite transformation in this team since the beginning of the season …
We still have some polishing to do and we still make some errors but, this team is legitimate title contender …. neutral floor and we can take any team in the country
No. 1 Seed would be nice...
And I think they will do it, but if they lose more than 1 game, I don’t think they’ll get a No. 1 seed either. This is shaping up to be one of the most memorable seasons I’ve ever had watching UK. I love it!
I use to love Happy Meals, now I love sushi, but I will always love Kentucky!
Only problem is..
There is at most only 14 games left to the season (: I didn’t mind the overtime last night too much, because I got to see 5 more minutes of basketball, and knew they would win!
Very good analysis
My head says you are right and we might get the 1 seed if we have only one loss but my gut tells me that if we lose another game, either regular season or SEC tournament, we drop to a 2 seed.
This team may be greater
than we actually realize. Just one instance, Cal said after the game that our very young point-guard, called during the last regulation huddle which side of the floor would be the best chance of getting a shooter open.
There’s probably not a lot of NBA players who would recognize that in a crucial moment with the game on the line. I will even say, probably even a lot fewer 19 year old kids. That shows a lot more than being able to drive to the basket.
This team has an important will to win like I haven’t seen in a while. I think this team will get the #1 seed, bay-bee!! Oh my, I am sounding a little like Dickie V. :-)
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
Lest we forget ......
Cats vs. UT, UL, and Ole Miss = 3 wins No losses.
UT, UL, and Ole Miss vs. KU, Syracuse, and K State = 3 wins No losses.
I rest my case.
Well, your case is full of holes :-)
KU, Syracuse, and K State have all played tougher schedules than UK K-st. (9), Kansas (23) Syracuse (51) vs. Kentucky (71).
You can ignore that if you want, but the selection committee will not. UT’s victory over Kansas in Knoxville is certainly a better loss than UK’s at Columbia, no matter who you ask.
Syracuse has two home losses, and even though they came against top 50 opponents, that’s definitely a black mark. I would contend their case is probably on par with UK’s for a #1 seed right now, mainly because they have played a tougher schedule. Villanova has lost all but one of their 3 games on the road and all to top 50 opponents, but their projected SOS is much tougher than UK’s. All in all, I would rank UK, Villanova and Syracuse about the same, but Villanova and Syracuse’s schedule going forward is much tougher than Kentucky’s, so that one is slightly biased against UK. Kansas is currently well out in front, and their projected SOS is much tougher than Kentucky’s
As far as the contenders go, Duke’s 4 losses have all been on the road, all but one to top 50 opponents. But that one loss was to a pretty bad team in NC State, but Duke’s #4 SOS makes up for that plus some. I think I would put them at the top of the list, with Purdue second. Purdue has two top 15 losses, one at home and one on the road, and a bad road loss to Notre Dame, but their schedule is favorable from here on out. I think that puts them second in the pecking order, Kansas St. third, and WVa. fourth.
My perception is that UK can withstand one more “good” loss on the road in the regular and remain a 1-seed, i.e. at Vandy or at Tennessee. A home loss, especially considering the relative weakness of their remaining home opponents, could do them in if nothing else changes.
If UK finishes the regular season with only one loss, I think they are a 1-seed no matter what happens in the SECT. If they lose one on the road, I think they will be on the fence if they don’t win at least one tournament game. If they lose one at home, they will need to win the tournament to remain a 1 seed.
This assumes, of course that no other teams in the discussion lose any more games. I’d bet that doesn’t happen. So if I were going to lay odds on UK being a 1-seed, I would put them at about 2-1 in favor right now.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
So, if they're a 2-seed, they play the
15-seed instead of the 16. WHOGAS? They’ll still be in opposite halves of the bracket from the 1-seed and will have to beat them and get 6 Ws to win the NC. Eyes on the fries, folks. Losses vs. deep run. I’ll take the run.
"The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena . . .who spends himself for a worthy cause . . ."
For one, 15 seeds do upset 2 seeds from time to time
Whereas no 16 has ever beaten a 1. You can say “Sure, but those were other teams, not us” except every 2 seed that has lost to a 15 went into their game thinking much the same thing.
And the 1-seeds get slightly easier games (based on seeding) for the duration of the region. It’s not much of an edge but every little bit helps.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
WHOGAS?
Me.
Just thought I’d answer your question. :-)
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Glenn Logan on Feb 18, 2010 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks for the answer :-).
but my real point is that they can’t just skate by a 1-seed to make a deep run. They’re gonna have to play some teams, and players, that can play ball somewhere along the line. I’m so excited about this year that whether they make the NC game, FF, EE, SS, or whatever can’t spoil the buzz. Now, having said that, I’d love to see a deep run, as I commented above.
"The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena . . .who spends himself for a worthy cause . . ."
I guess the phrase "straining at gnats"
describes the way I feel about worrying whether they’re a 1 or 2 seed this year.
"The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena . . .who spends himself for a worthy cause . . ."
You're likely right....
but according to the experts and their numbers UL, UT,and Ole Miss lost those games, and the Cats beat the Gamecocks …. and a sincere thanks for letting me hear from all my Wildcat brothers and sisters down here in Gatorland!
Well, if the committee decides to only seed teams based on how they played UT, UL, and Ole Miss
then UK might be okay.
But of course they don’t – they look at every game and UK losing at SC is a lot worse than KU losing at UT or KSU losing on a neutral floor to Ole Miss.
And you conveniently leave out the fact that Kansas (@ Temple, @ Texas, @ KState, California) , KState (Xavier, @ UNLV, Texas), and Syracuse (@ W. Virginia, Georgetown, California) all have wins that are collectively more impressive than what UK has right now.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
Okay, let's knock this off.
Keep it civil, please.
If you don’t appreciate statistical analysis, don’t comment. I don’t want people who work hard to bring this work to our readers to be subjected to this type of commentary. This is hard work and represent analytical thought that I appreciate, and I don’t like to see this kind of response. It isn’t worthy of the blog.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
Looking at the numbers...
I wonder why Villanova and not Duke is a consensus #1…(not that I have a problem with Duke being a 2 or lower).
I don’t think you can get a 1-seed without winning the SECT, but that is dependent on the other tourneys’ results. ie. If Duke, Kansas, Purdue, Vill. or Syr. win their Reg. season and Tournaments then UK must as well. (Not trying to be master of the obvious, but it is relative to what others do and theoretically UK could lose 1, maybe 2 and still be a 1-seed). That being said, this is not the time of year to be losing any games. Ideally, they’ll build on the comeback win at MSU and go into the tourneys HOT.
I think the Road+Neutral has a lot to do with it
Nova is 11-2 combined whereas Duke is 7-4. Their top 100 wins are about even and Nova’s R+N gives them the edge over Duke’s SOS.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
Thanks for the answer..
and this is a timely article considering what Cal said today at the end of this interview:
Because it’s all about seeding in the NCAA tournament….I’ve never worried about any of that (SEC standings) except that seeding.
I think you've "dispensed" with Purdue a bit too early.
Even if Purdue gets no help, if they win out they’re going to get a #1 seed. Nova or Cuse has to lose at least once more, and Purdue is already neck-and-neck with those teams.
That said, Purdue isn’t going to win out, but I still like their chances to grab the fourth #1.
I just don't see enough quality wins left on their schedule
One of the Big East triumvirate is going to be a #1 seed. If UK and Kansas win out they will be #1 seeds too. That leaves Purdue, Duke, KState, and the other 2 BE teams for the 4th spot.
I don’t think KState can get it unless they beat Kansas. If Duke and Purdue both win out Duke is going to have the stronger profile – they already have more top 50 and Top 100 wins. Purdue has more Top 25 wins, but not enough to overcome Duke’s lead in the 26-50 area. There simply aren’t enough good Big 10 teams left for them to play and they by far have the two worst teams to play in their remaining schedule with Penn St and Indiana.
As for the other 2 BE teams, even with another loss (maybe even 2 if its Villanova) they are going to have a high RPI and several very good wins.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
How many of the teams in running
for 1 seeds would do better than UK facing UK’s remaining schedule in the SEC? We already know #1 KU wouldn’t get past UT.
No, we don't.
Just because they couldn’t do it once does not mean they couldn’t do it on a second try.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
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