Enjoy Jones, but root for Knight
It’s not hard to see why Kentucky fans are so geeked about the early play of freshman forward Terrence Jones. The multi-dimensional Oregonian has wowed scouts and Big Blue Nation alike in the early season, posting upperclassman numbers in just his first few games in Blue and White.
But while Jones and his production are obviously crucial to the Kentucky offense, it’s the play of another of the highly touted freshmen that should concern UK fans more, because if guard Brandon Knight doesn’t grow into a consistent scoring and passing threat, too many of those impressive double-double performances from Jones will be in close Kentucky losses.
Point guard is probably the toughest position on the basketball court to play consistently well. Part of that is just having the ball in your hands so much more. You’re guaranteed to have more chances to make boneheaded plays than a big man who relies on entry passes and rebounds to be productive. The origination of those entry passes? More often than any other position, the point guard.
Much ink has already been spilled on the things Brandon Knight does differently than other, previous John Calipari-coached phenom guards. I won’t rehash that. But what needs to be addressed more urgently is the confidence issue, because if there is one thing that separates good point guards from great ones, it’s the confidence in one’s own basketball ability to shrug off mistakes and to make changes on the fly.
Kentucky fans were spoiled by John Wall’s preternatural abilities, both physical and mental. His toughness – that feeling that he just knew what the next play would be and how to make it – is not normal, in a freshman or in any other player. It’s, simply, the stuff NBA All-Stars are made of, and that was patently obvious from Day 1 (Before, even).
Knight, for all his strengths as a shooter and creative slasher, does not appear to possess that same instinct for the game, at least not at this stage. He has shown confidence in his shot and an appropriate stubbornness to continue to push the ball even after a rough shooting patch, but he doesn’t control the court with the same cool savvy as his predecessor. That isn’t an indictment of him, it’s just a fact. It can’t be expected, and fans expecting it are bound to be disappointed.
What Knight does well he must continue to do well. He's not going to become a seven-assist-a-game player anytime soon (OK, six on Tuesday was a nice start ... ), but the bigger issue is keeping the offense running, whether that means continuing what's working, or fixing what ain't. Certainly some of that -- maybe most -- is on the coach. But the coach is only an observer of the game. Only the players in the mix can see, truly, what's working and what is not, which players have it and which ones do not, and what plays are capable and what are not. In the UCONN loss, for example, Knight, in trying to regain momentum, too often tried to make the big play. This is understandable. In high school, why in the world would Knight have passed to a teammate to make the big play? But at this level, there are some plays even Knight simply cannot make. It is at these moments that Knight's maturation must occur.
This is Knight’s team, and it will be, for better or worse. How he performs in clutch situations will determine the team’s success or failure in a way that his teammates’ performance – even talented classmates Jones and Doron Lamb – will not. Calipari knows this, and that’s why he’s making statements like this one:
"You better really buckle down and coach him," Calipari said of freshman point guard Brandon Knight, who committed 13 turnovers in the final two games here and made just three of 15 shots against UConn. " ... These guys are 18 years old, and they need to be coached, and I need to coach them. I can't just say, 'You guys will be fine.' "
UK fans aren’t the only ones spoiled by last season’s rare talents. Calipari seemed to be acknowledging that even a precociously talented freshman like Knight isn’t on the same level as a once-in-a-generation point guard like Wall. Calipari will need to mold Knight more like he did with Tyreke Evans, his combo guard star at Memphis. Like Evans, Knight is a scorer more than a playmaker, and harnessing his instincts to score while maintaining that aggressiveness will have a huge effect on both Knight’s progression, and by proxy, Kentucky’s season.
Jones is a joy to watch. He’s strong, superbly skilled and plays with flair, something Kentucky fans love almost as much as any actual production. But Jones can afford to. He’ll be a go-to scorer and playmaker, but he won’t be the decision-maker on the floor. That will be Knight. And how Knight handles those decisions will have a greater effect on the outcome of games than any amount of scoring and rebounding Jones puts up.
On the young season, Knight is averaging 4.5 turnovers a game. Obviously, that number is inflated by the small sample size. But it’s also something that must concern Kentucky fans going forward. For over the next month is a murderer’s row of games where even a few bad possessions might mean the difference between wins and losses. Games at North Carolina, against Notre Dame in Louisville, vs. an improved Indiana and at Louisville will test the freshman’s ability not only to produce numbers, but to drive his team on both ends of the floor.
If Calipari’s teaching can pay quick dividends, and Knight can solidify his decision-making and playmaking skills, Kentucky could emerge a top 10 squad heading into conference play. If not, and if UK drops a few of those contests, it could be a season of watching for Terrence Jones highlights on Sportscenter each night, something I’m betting most Big Blue fans would be more than happy to trade for sustained success.
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Thanks JL,
Nice piece, welcome back to ASOB.
Forgive me for this smarty pants comment:
On the young season, Knight is averaging 4.5 turnovers a game. Obviously, that number is inflated by the small sample size.
Small sample size does not inflate nor deflate average, what is does is it makes the estimated average less definitive. For instance, if Knight turn the ball over 4.5 times for the next 40 games, his TO/game is still 4.5, but we are more confident this is more accurate than the same 4.5 based on 4 games.
Again, nice piece, looking forward to read more from you.
True But
Average is more meaningful after more games are completed.
If (for EG) he had 2 – 2 – 10 – 2 TO’s his first 4 games, average would be 4 TO’s but really, he would have had 3 GOOD games and 1 lousy game.
Just like ERA for pitchers early in the baseball season, it doesn’t mean much until more games are factored into the ERA.
by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 2, 2010 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
Averages can be misleading.
Bill Gates and I have an average net worth in the billions.
Slogan for the NCAA: If it ain't broke, break it.
Best yuk I've had today, UKCat. Good one!!
"The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena . . .who spends himself for a worthy cause . . ."
For small samples sizes, the median is typically a better measure of centrality
In this case, after 6 games Knight’s median TO/g is also 4.5.
Anyway, the overall point remains: we don’t really know yet what Knight’s “true” ability is as far as taking care of the basketball. My guess is that it is better than what he has currently shown and by the time we get to the end of December and into conference play he will have improved on that number.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
I'm In 6 Sigma Green Belt Training Class This Week
Hope i can use that on the exam tomorrow, ha!
by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 2, 2010 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
JL
Good point JL. Have to agree.
I love the Cats,
The Cats love me,
And both of us love,
The S....E....C.
Only on a Sea of Blue
I thought I had stumbled upon a geeks r us forum. :)
This is why I like ASOB so much.
As Glenn says, in-depth discussion for the discerning fan.
"SPORTS"--Not interested----"CATS"--Pull up a chair,I've got all night.
John Wall had four first-round NBA draft picks to play with.......
and you can’t say the same thing about Brandon Knight. No doubt, UK’s success this year will depend on Knight more than any other player. Knight is a good, smart player and I believe if he was playing with last year’s cast we’d all be calling him the greatest point guard at Kentucky since Kyle Macy. He’ll never make the impact in the NBA that Wall will, but he’s still a pretty darn good point guard, especially for a freshman. He’s a kid and he’s going to make plenty of mistakes. Unfortunately he won’t have a team of All-Stars to cover them up for him.
And that trend has CONTINUED into the NBA...
.
I have watched nearly all of the Wizards games this year and follow their news and fan sites, and cannot even count how many times Ted Leonsis has said, “Wow… I can’t believe we spent our No. 1 pick on a guy whose game has to be propped up and covered over by All-Stars around him. If it wasn’t for our own All-Stars like Andray Blatche, Yi Jianlian and Nick Young covering up all of his rookie mistakes, there is no way John would be averaging 18 pts, 9 assists and 2.7 steals against 3.7 turnovers. I wish we had the No. 1 pick to do all over again, because next time we wold get it right.”
Oh, wait a minute…..
…. yes I … can ….
…. count how many times he has said that.
.
Zero.
.
-- Tim
You get the point though
Knight would probably average just as many assists as Wall did if he had Cousins and Patterson to dish to down low as opposed to Jorts and Vargas.
kcgard2
Yes, but that’s academic. We don’t have any of those guys; to our chagrin. You’re right though.
I love the Cats,
The Cats love me,
And both of us love,
The S....E....C.
I couldn't say
.
To be honest, they don’t really remind me very much of each other. I don’t really like a direct comparison of them any more than directly comparing, for example, a 2-yo colt with speed to burn on dirt with a 5-yo gelding who runs from off the pace in turf races.
Not everything lends itself to direct comparisons. No matter how tempting it is to try and do so. And it doesn’t necessarily come down to it not being “fair” to one or the other, but rather because it just might not make much sense to do so. (See above example.)
I love BK for the same reasons everyone else does: he’s smart, he’s a good kid and probably very coachable, has athleticism to burn, and can SHOOT. What’s not to love?
But the original author of this post is exactly right when he writes of:
…John Wallās preternatural abilities, both physical and mental. His toughness ā that feeling that he just knew what the next play would be and how to make it ā is not normal, in a freshman or in any other player. Itās, simply, the stuff NBA All-Stars are made of, and that was patently obvious from Day 1 (Before, even).
If some UK fans never understand that, then it is their loss. Believe me, it wasn’t lost on the NBA. And won’t be in the years to come when Wall takes up residence among the game’s biggest stars and best players. To be honest, I don’t see how anyone could have missed it. It was like looking up in the sky and seeing the big “Batman” symbol being sent up by Commissioner Gordon.
If you missed it, then too bad for you.
On a totally unrelated front: I think BK is going to be awesome. He really does seem to be a great kid.
.
-- Tim
yeah, I agree with all of this
it’s natural to make comparisons though, otherwise we have no basis at all for calling any player good, average, or whatever the case may be.
And comparing Knight to Wall is natural for UK fans to want to do. Everyone realizes they are pretty different. My brother and I made a bet specifically comparing the two before the start of the season, for example. Right or wrong, they will be compared.
with Knight...
I am willing to take fewer assists, fewer turnovers and more points versus Wall. Tough to say which is better, but it seems like a fair trade off.
Jones is like an agressive patterson or agile cousins. Again, neither is better and it seems like a fair tradeoff – except jones cannot replace 2 players
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
great article.
I was thinking along those lines. I’ve also got a hunch that lamb might be kind of a surprise super-star in the making. I know he’s already proved very capable I just have a feeling he will eventually start and make a big impact. Oh yeah and……. FREE ENES.
by phatcatfan on Dec 2, 2010 4:09 PM EST via mobile reply actions
good article
knight might not put up assist numbers like wall did, but it seems like wall turned the ball over a lot too. especially at the beginning of the season. without kanter, knight wont have the luxury of having a skilled big to go to for the easy assists either. wall had cousins and patterson at times. while they both are incredibly skilled, they are different players. the to’s will cut down. we may never have the physical and athletic advantages we had last season. last year defenses backed off, trying to force us to shoot. we had the guys who could get to the rim anyway. with this team, the d has to respect our shooting. otherwise we’ll make it rain treys all night. then when they come up to defend, then we take it to the rack. it’s just like coach cal said, this team is gonna have to be better at execution. on both sides of the floor. FREE ENES!! GO BIG BLUE!!!!!!!!
Brandon Knight
is a freshman. He came to Kentucky to improve his basketball skills. Kentucky has the best group of teaching coachs in the country. I believe Brandon will improve this year just like all the players improved last year. All of the players will improve and we wilolo have an exciting year.
Agreed.
I remember last year when they were developing. Like coach cal said he doesn’t want his team in november to look like what it should in march. He has so much more to teach them than he has had time to.
by phatcatfan on Dec 2, 2010 5:27 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
UK/Calipari PG's
Good comments, JLB, and a good opening for thoughts I intended for a separate post.
Rose, Evans, Wall, and now Knight, quite a list, quite a run of guys at the 1. To make a doubting comment regarding such would portray one as either an ingrate or a typically unrealistic and cosseted Cat fan, I don’t consider myself as either. Nevertheless as I was witnessing freshman Kyrie Irving be nearly single-handledly responsible for Duke’s victory over MSU and harkening back to Kemba Walker’s dismantling of UK (plus several others as well) two questions came to mind: Why hasn’t Calipari recruited the penetrator, ball-control, place-setter (usually smaller) PG? Is it that the DDMO doesn’t fit the type, instead calling for a rangy NBA-type?
"I bring reason to your ears, and, in language as plain as ABC, hold up truth to your eyes." Thomas Paine, December 23, 1776
by Wild Weasel on Dec 2, 2010 5:19 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I was thinking the same thing Weasel
Does the DDMO feature a true point to set up every play? It is mostly drive and shoot if you can. If not, then pass. Right?
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
by a2d2 on Dec 2, 2010 5:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't think Irving or Walker are good examples.
Irving and Walker are far less pure PG’s than Wall. Wall was a distributor first and foremost, which is the traditional role of a PG. Irving and Walker are scorers first and foremost.
I just think it looks different because Duke and UConn run a far more traditional halfcourt offense than UK.
Must Disagree
With civility of course. Wall was the team’s leading scorer and was far from the collegiate “pure” PG, e.g. Walker, Irving, Devan Downey, Tywonne Lawson, Phil Ford, et al. All of which begs my second question: Does the DDMO preclude a “pure” PG?
"I bring reason to your ears, and, in language as plain as ABC, hold up truth to your eyes." Thomas Paine, December 23, 1776
by Wild Weasel on Dec 2, 2010 6:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Maybe to some extent.
I suspect it’s much easier for Cal to teach a scorer to pass the ball than the reverse.
I'll agree
That the DDMO is probably designed more for a scoring PG than a traditional one. I still think Wall fits that description far better than Irving. If Irving looks more like a traditional PG, its only because he runs a more traditional offense.
The one question about Irving as a player has always been whether he gets his teammates involved enough, or whether he becomes too focused on his own offense. See this link, talking about a match-up he had last year versus Corey Joseph.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Kyrie-Irving-5735/
When I think pure PG, I think Magic Johnson, John Stockton, Steve Nash, Rajon Rondo, etc. Guys who aren’t looking to lead their team in scoring, but are looking to set everyone else up. Even guys like Deron Williams and Chris Paul, who can score in bunches, still look to distribute first, then score. I think Wall is the same. His pure ability is going to allow him to score a lot, but he’s mainly looking to distribute. I don’t know if you can say the same about Irving. I think he’s working on it, and I think he’s a tremendous talent, but I still think his natural instinct is to try and score himself. And that’s clearly true with Kemba Walker, because Walker isn’t really a PG at all right now. He’s just a monstrous scoring machine.
I think the one overriding factor Cal looks for in a PG is whether he can take his man of the dribble. That simply has to be there to make the DDMO work. I don’t know if Cal even cares all that much if its a guy who takes his man off the dribble to set-up a pass, or a guy who takes his man off the dribble to score himself, but a Cal PG has to have penetration ability.
Significant
That your examples are all NBA PG’s and the inferrence would be that your evaluation is of their performance in The League and not during their collegiate period, ergo distinctvely misleading and perhaps fallacious.
"I bring reason to your ears, and, in language as plain as ABC, hold up truth to your eyes." Thomas Paine, December 23, 1776
by Wild Weasel on Dec 3, 2010 1:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
You think a player changes that much from the NCAA to NBA?
I don’t. Skill sets evolve, general style of play tends not to change all that much. I simply used a selection of players who have gone on to great accolades at the highest level mainly based on their ability to distribute the ball.
I think the main difference here is that you are defining “pure PG” differently than I do. You’re defining it more by a set of physical characteristics- a smaller guy, usually the quickest guy on the floor, who handles the ball more than anyone else on his team.
I define it by how that player approaches the game. Is it essentially as a scorer, or as a facilitator? Ty Lawson, Phil Ford? Facilitators. Devan Downey, Kemba Walker? Scorers. John Wall? Faciliator. Irving? Still under eval, but his rep has always been as more of a scorer than facilitator.
Irving was unbelieveable in that game.
He drove, rebounded, made three’s, hit mid-range J’s. I don’t know if he had one assist but am sure coach K didn’t care. If he can keep that up, Duke is in for another fantastic season, unfortunately.
Nick
Good stuff, JL!!
Couldn’t find anything to argue with in your entire post. The good news is that BK has demonstrated his brains in HS, so we should see some quick learning. Habit patterns interfere, for sure, with what we intend to do (just look at anybody’s golf game!!), but in BK’s case, I think he’ll do fine as Coach Cal and the staff interact with him.
As an aside, the critical nature of the point guard position is what’s wrong with UNC this year, In my opinion. If you look at Zeller, Henson, and Barnes, you have a pretty formidable frontcourt. It’s the ability to get things moving, establish rhythms and patterns, and ensure the ball gets to the big men that is lacking.
In some ways, we might be well off this year to use sort of a throwback (read ancient, like me) guard system. Back in “the day”, guards were expected to have both ball-handling AND shooting skills as well as defending, etc. Whoever was in the best position when rebounds or in-bounds balls came out was the “point”, the other guy(s) was (were) expected to get open and be ready to score, pick, and do all the other things a well-rounded player does. With Knight, Lamb, Liggins, and even Miller, we perhaps should be less concerned with specialization and labeling and more with playing good basketball.
"The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena . . .who spends himself for a worthy cause . . ."
Hey fellow-ASoBers, I want to thank you.
It’s threads that like this that make ASoB the best sports blog I’ve ever been on. Every single comment above, with the exception of perhaps mine, show good insight into the game and we’ve all take an adult approach to what we post. Nobody has called anybody else an SOB; nobody has dissed a player or coach; and nobody has figuratively beaten their chest. Just sound stuff. Thanks.
"The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena . . .who spends himself for a worthy cause . . ."
by oldcat'69 on Dec 2, 2010 5:32 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Now shut up.
Just kidding. That was just too hard to resist. Seriously, you’re right. While we don’t always agree (if two people always agree, one of them is unnecessary), those disagreements are almost always civil. When I look at other sites, it makes me appreciate ASOB that much more. I’m appalled at the language people use, and trust me, I’m no prude (as Ralphie said about his old man in A Christmas Story, I work in profanity the way some artists work in oils or watercolors). For that I credit Glenn and Ken as well as the Cat fans and the other visitors that grace this site. Everybody, keep up the good work.
Slogan for the NCAA: If it ain't broke, break it.
by UKCat on Dec 2, 2010 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
+1
I don’t comment often, but read ASOB daily. I don’t have the BB acumen to analyze the game, but I sure learn so much by reading. Thanks Glenn et. al for keeping this the best sports page on the internet.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro...Hunter S. Thompson
Rec'd if for no other reason that the A Christmas Story reference
Then it comes to be that the soothing light at the end of your tunnel, is just a freight train coming your way...
@btcoop71
JLB
I appreciate your post and the comments made.
Thinking about the UNC game Saturday, the UNC guards have not been very effective offensively. However, they have enough of them and they are talented enough to swarm Knight on Saturday. I imagine Ol’ Roy’s game plan will include trying to pressure Knight and keep him from starting the offense. UNC guards are athletic enough (if not offensively skilled) to cause a lot of havoc with the Cats’ offense. Let’s hope Knight’s learning includes poise in the face of pressure. Pitino’s Cards will probably try the same thing later in the month.
First Concern Saturday Is
Does UK’s young and short (depthwise) roster have the required physicality (see MN & IL) to defeat Heels? Second concern: Deandome.
"I bring reason to your ears, and, in language as plain as ABC, hold up truth to your eyes." Thomas Paine, December 23, 1776
by Wild Weasel on Dec 2, 2010 6:36 PM EST via mobile reply actions
AGREE
… for that reason, I wish we had had a chance to play Michigan State in Maui. That would have been a better measuring stick for how this team will fare against physical competition. I fear this team doesn’t have the make-up to compete against a bruising front line.
WW
While I appreciate your statement about the Deandome. I watched some of Dook and MSU and was amazed at how loud the student section was. At times they drowned out Dickie V-That not being a BAD thing at times. It’s hard to imagine kids playing in that atmosphere>
Happy Days are here again! Wildcat's have #1 recruiting class again!
Nice JL, Good to read another piece from you.
I do think Knight will get better – Cal’s track record with this position nearly guarantees it (to the extant that such things can be guaranteed).
One thing that does not concern me is the assist totals. Yes, gaudy assist numbers are nice, but they aren’t required to run an effective offense. Looking at Rose and Evans, neither had eye-popping assist numbers in college yet they ran some of the best offenses in the nation their respective freshmen years. All of which is to say, Knight can both improve his decision making and the offense and still average his current 3.3 apg (or 4 apg if you want the median ;-p
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
Great to hear from you again JL
now that you have created a new post, you may want to pay more attention to your fantasy team.
seriously, glad to read your insights again.
i've been waiting for this moment all my life...but it's not quite right.
Brandon Knight
is adjusting to his new role. He is having to think through his game rather than let it flow. He has had to do all of this in fairly hostile environments against quality competition. I think it is much too early to take the tone of this post that if he doesn’t do this and if he doesn’t do that the Cats will have a bad season. He has enough pressure and enough on his mind, give him some time.
I woke up feeling BLUE this morning. It's gonna be a great day.
kywineman
I agree 100%. And the quality competition started in Canada, IMO. Those teams were not pushovers. We were simply too much for them. Just like Boston U.
I love the Cats,
The Cats love me,
And both of us love,
The S....E....C.
Knight has only one major fault
As JL pointed out, Brandon tends to get down some when he makes a mistake and then over reacts in trying to make up for it. That in itself compounds the mistakes. Wall never let that facet of the game affect him as does Knight. This kid over the season will mature in that role and be a great PG. We have nothing at all to worry about concerning Brandon Knight.
Nick
KansasUKCat
Correct. He will come through. Brandon has a temperament where he expects to be perfect, and when he isn’t, he gets down on himself. Like the guy who won a pie baking contest, accepted his ribbon, then went home and got depressed because he won with a pie that was not perfect. LOL
I love the Cats,
The Cats love me,
And both of us love,
The S....E....C.
Has anyone else noticed...
that when they list our starting lineup it is 1 guard and 4 forwards. never seen that before….
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
Strange
Since he was recruited as a PG, but that is good example of attempting to utilize traditional position descriptors in the DDMO.
"I bring reason to your ears, and, in language as plain as ABC, hold up truth to your eyes." Thomas Paine, December 23, 1776
by Wild Weasel on Dec 3, 2010 1:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Derrick Jasper
Plays “point forward” at UNLV but was recruited as PG.
by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 3, 2010 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
I have seen a
high school list five guards as starting based on the offense they ran.
I enjoy Jones-
And then today, I read where Doug Gottlieb says he is overrated…sheesh
"You are what you are and you ain't what you ain't"

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