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It's Back! Guess the Outcome Game: 2010-11

Welcome to the Guess the Outcome Game, or GOG for short!  The GOG is a season-long series in which we will see who possesses the most clairvoyant Magic 8 Ball by predicting the outcomes for games before they are actually played.  Intrigued?  Read On!

A little GOG History


The GOG was originally started at fellow SBN site Athletics Nation for the 2005 baseball season and was run by AN members Alien and Jjjsixsix.  Last year I introduced it to ASoB and I think those who participated had a lot of fun.  Last year's winners and the final standings can be viewed here.

So How Do You Play?


This part is very simple. Before each UK basketball game I will post a list of questions for you to predict the answers to.  This will usually occur the day before the game. Just come up with your answers and leave them as a comment. There is a deadline for the answers, which will typically be tip-off for the game in question.  Examples of some of last season's GOG's are here and here to give you an idea.

Questions will fall under 4 general categories and are scored as follows:

  • Yes/no type questions are worth +1 point for a correct answer or -1 point for an incorrect answer. Example: if the question is "Does Josh Harrellson record a double-double against Notre Dame?" and then Jorts goes out and impersonates DeMarcus Cousins, you would get +1 point for answering "yes" and -1 point for answering "no".
  • Open ended questions are worth +3 points for a correct answer, with no penalty for a wrong answer. Example: "Which UK player grabs the most rebounds?" would be an open ended question.
  • A common question format is to guess some stat line for a particular player in a game. These questions will have three parts, worth two points each, with no penalty for wrong answers. Example: "Predict Brandon Knight's points/assists/steals against UNC."
  • Guess a (high) point total question: This question is typically about guessing both UK's and the opponents respective points scored for the game.  Because there is such a wide range of possibilities, answers are graded on a sliding scale.  Getting it dead on is worth 4 points, being within 1 is worth 3 points, within 2 or 3 is worth 2 points, and being within 4 or 5 of the correct answer is worth 1 point.
  • There may be questions with other scoring systems, but those will be explained as they occur.


After each game, I will tally up and post the scores and keep track of total points and "shooting percentage" for the entire season.  I encourage everyone to play the entire season, but don't fret if you miss a GOG, just play the next time!

A word about clarity: I try as much as possible to write the questions in such a way so that it is clear what I am asking for.  If you need a clarification though, just mention it in your entry and I'll respond as soon as I see it. 


Round 00 of the 2010-2011 GOG is a very special one: you get to make your predictions for the whole 2009-2010 season!  Can the Cats conquer the conference?  Will they return to the Elite 8?  How often will Calipari remind us how young the team is?

Deadline for entries is tip-off with East Tennessee St at 7:00 PM Friday, Nov. 12.

Note: Unless otherwise specified, questions refer to the combined non-conference, conference and postseason (No exhibition games are included).  No pre-season awards are considered (so pre-season All SEC, AA, etc don't count).

Update: Now that Kanter's status has been finalized, feel free to change your answer to question # 22.  I'm going to leave it as is though, as there still exists the ultra slim possibility that UK will win their appeal.  If you want to change your answer (to any question, not just #22) just post a reply to your entry before the deadline.

GOG #00: [max 81 points]


1. Predict UK's regular season record (30 games). [3 points] 22-8

2. Predict UK's postseason record (SECT + NCAAT/NIT/CBI). [3 points] 7-1

3. The UK Women's Team has a shiny new #9 ranking in the preseason AP Poll.  Predict their regular season record (29 Games). [3 points] 22-7

4. Which squad (Men's or Women's) advances deepest in their respective NCAA Tournament this year?  (Both answers will be considered correct in the case of a tie).  [ +/- 1 point] Men

5. Despised Rivals: Predict UK's regular season record against Tennessee, Florida, Indiana, UNC, and Louisville (7 games). [3 points] 5-2

6. Last year the Men's and Women's team got the double sweep of the Cardinals.  Do they repeat that feat this year? [ +/- 1 point] No

7. The SEC lost a lot of talent from last year.  In fact, the SEC ranks 27th out of 32 conferences in returning production.  Still, the conference might be better than last year.  Predict the order of finish for the SEC East and SEC West. [+ 1 point for each team correctly placed, - 1 point for each team incorrectly placed] I dropped the "-1" part of this question, so you got a point for each correct pick and no penalty for an incorrect pick. 
East: Florida/UK/Vanderbilt/Georgia/Tennessee/South Carolina
West: Alabama/Mississippi St/Ole Miss/Arkansas/Auburn/LSU


8. How many SEC teams finish with a winning conference record (9-7 or better)? [3 points] 6

9. Who wins the SEC Regular Season? [3 points] Florida

10. Who wins the SEC Tournament? [3 points] UK

11. How many Wildcats make either the AP or Coaches All-SEC team? [3 points] 2

12. Last year the SEC did fairly well in the NCAA Tournament with four teams making the Big Dance and Tennessee and UK advancing to the Elite 8.  How many games does the SEC play (win or lose) in the NCAA Tournament this year? [3 points] 12

13. What is UK's seed in the NCAA Tournament?  [3 points] (Note: if you think UK will miss the NCAAT you can choose that too) 4 seed

14. The Amazing DeMarcus Cousins recoreded 20 double-doubles last year - the 4th highest single season total in UK history (or at least the portion of UK history that Jon Scott has box scores for).  As a team, does UK combine for 20 or more double-doubles this season? [ +/- 1 point] Over, but just barely with 21

15. John Wall came ohsoclose last year at Mississippi St, but Chris Mills remains the last Cat to put together a triple-double.  Will a UK player record a triple-double this season? [ +/- 1 point] no

16. Last year UK ascended to #1 for a day and a half (technically a week) but spent the entire season in the AP/Coaches Poll Top 5.  Does UK achieve a #1 ranking in either poll this season?  How many weeks does UK spend in the Top 5 in BOTH the AP and Coaches Poll (ie UK is ranked in the Top 5 of both polls during the same week)? [+/- 1 for the first question, 3 points for the second question] no, 0 weeks

17. UK lost more production from last year than any other school.  That leaves a lot of room for the few returnees to step up and for the newcomers to step in.  Rank the top 3 scorers for the season (based on total points scored) from first to third. [2 pts each] Knight/Jones/Lamb

18. One player for whom big things are expected is Darius Miller who played very well in the three August exhibitions.  Predict Miller's Points per game/ assists + steals per game/offensive rating.  For those not familiar with offensive rating, a definition can be found here and Miller's Off Ratings for the last 2 seasons can be found here in the stat box. [2 pts each]  This one seemed to create some confusion as several people left off the first two parts, I counted anything that was within 5% of the correct answer as correct.  10.9/2.5/118

19. Last year the SEC went 6-8 against the ACC with the Cats winning both their games (UNC, Wake Forest).  This season there are 9 scheduled matches between the two conferences with the possibility of 6 more games if games in some of the in-season tournaments go the right way.  Of these 15 games (6 potential, 9 guaranteed), how many wins does the SEC accrue? [3 pts] 5 wins in the regular season

20. With so few players on the roster, everyone figures to see a lot of minutes.  How many Cats average 10 minutes played per game this season? [3 points] Shows what I know, just 6 players averaged 10+ minutes

21. Fun with Jersey numbers:  UK has players wearing the numbers 1-5 (in order: Miller, Poole, Jones, Hood, Polson) with the other five (Knight, Lamb, Vargas, Liggins, Harrellson) spread between 12 and 55.  Which group scores the most points?  Grabs the most rebounds?  Collects the most assists? [ +/- 1 point each question) (Note: Kanter isn't included in this question) The emergence of Harrellson and Liggins made these a runaway for the 12-55 jersey wearers for each part

22. Speaking of Kanter, still no word on Free Enes.  Does he play this season? [+/- 1 point] no

23. Jarrod Polson could play some important minutes this year.  Predict his points per game/assists per game/total made 3pt FG (for the season). [2 points each] Again, poor foresight on my part as Jarrod barely played.  0.35/0/0

24. No matter when the season ends, this will be too soon: Who scores the final point(s) for UK this season? [3 points] Knight

 

Mean: 22.21
Median: 24.00
St. dev: 5.62

 

 

RK UserName PTS GOGS Played TOTAL PTS Rank by PTS AVERAGE Rank by AVG*
1 btcoop71 28 31 321 1 0.272 1
1 Ken Howlett 28 25 233 7 0.243 5
3 BigSkyCat 27 32 309 2 0.255 2
3 kydamcat 27 27 236 6 0.225 9
5 Wild Weasel 26 10 87 14 0.226
6 Clint Phelps 25 1 25 18 0.309
7 floundringaround 24 31 264 5 0.228 8
7 KYCatwoman 24 1 24 19 0.296
9 a2d2 23 32 294 3 0.243 6
10 GoLightning 19 24 173 9 0.193 12
10 kcgard2 19 31 294 3 0.250 3
12 ukcris 18 24 233 7 0.246 4
13 dancoo626 12 6 52 17 0.198
14 kentuckygirl0724 11 18 136 11 0.209 11

Magnoliacat
1 12 20 0.333

triple_threat_stance
12 124 12 0.290

wildcatfaninexile
15 141 10 0.232 7

vinceuk1
10 65 15 0.198

CATFAN85
13 108 13 0.21 10

Ed R
7 59 16 0.252

 

 

 

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