Kentucky Basketball: Does it Mean Anything When UK Lets Opponents Get Close?
Actually, the title is a bit misleading. What I hope to examine here is our margin of victory compared to that of other Kentucky teams.
First of all, let me make the mother of all disclaimers -- the analysis I am about to show you is not statistically valid or anything remotely resembling it. The sample is way too small, and way too focused.
But with all that said, we have seen a lot of fans concerned about how we aren't putting away our opponents like we should be. That's a legitimate concern, particularly considering the recent games against the Georgia Bulldogs, Florida Gators and Auburn Tigers, where Kentucky held big leads at times and failed to build on them. In each case, Kentucky allowed their opponents to come back and make the game very competitive in the second half. Also in each case, the comeback ultimately failed and UK went on to win.
In addition, UK has had several near misses against nominally inferior teams like the Stanford Cardinal and the Sam Houston St. Bearkats, among others. Given all that, does it mean that UK's season is not going swimmingly? Follow me past the jump for more.
What I have attempted to do here is look back to the games since 1990-91 and compare the margin of victory to the ultimate outcome of the season. How I graded the outcomes is as follows:
0 = No NCAA tournament bid or loss in the first game.
1 = First round win, second round loss.
2 = Second round win, third round loss (made Sweet 16)
3 = Third round win, fourth round loss (made Elite 8)
4 = Fourth round win, fifth round loss (made Final Four)
5 = Fifth round win, sixth round loss (Made the National Championship)
6 = National Champion.
The blue bar represents the margin of victory, and the red bar represents the result as detailed by the legend above. So here we go:
If we just accept for the moment that the obvious holes in this theory don't actually exist (UK has yet to play its toughest games, we are comparing half a season against whole seasons, etc.), there are some interesting things that stand out.
Right now, this team looks similar, from an MOV standpoint, to 1992-93 or 1994-95. 1992-93 was a Final Four year, and that is the closest to the current year snapshot. 1994-95 had a higher MOV, but a worse tournament result.
But generally, with a couple of notable exceptions -- 1997-98 where we won the national championship with a worse MOV, and 1993-94 where we had a relatively high MOV but a poor tournament result -- the higher the MOV, the generally better the result.
I think directionally, we can say that UK at this point appears headed for between an Elite Eight and a Final Four finish based on their MOV in this sample. Also, I like the comparison to the Pitino years a bit better, because so many of Smith's teams were relatively low scoring but great defensively, and won a bunch of games by much narrower margins than during the Pitino years.
Another interesting but possibly irrelevant point -- notice the stark difference between the Pitino years and subsequent years until Calipari in terms of both MOV and tournament success (except, of course, in Calipari's case). I am not inviting coach-bashing here, please, but the difference when graphed this way is really in-your-face.
Have fun with it.
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A win
Is a win is a win. To quote the top-25 that I threw up at RockyTopTalk
1. Kentucky (18-0) – no question about it, the Wildcats are the nation’s last unbeaten team so they have to go here. Two nice wins against top 25 foes in UNC and Georgetown are nice, but what does concern me is that neither of those games were true road games (UNC was played at Rupp – and we’ve all seen UNC’s recent road woes, and Georgetown was in Madison Square.) so we’ll see if the young Wildcats will be able to consistently produce in really hostile situations. Of course, March Madness doesn’t have true road games, so ….
Tennessee Fans: We win at teh Internet!
Georgetown, Connecticut
Same thing, really? facepalm — fixed in the original post. This is what happens when people from Tennessee try their hand at Basketball, right?
Tennessee Fans: We win at teh Internet!
by bobo_the_vol on Jan 20, 2010 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
Had me confused for awhile ;)
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
Very nice.
I mostly agree. Not convince about Appy State, though. :-)
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
;-)
As I said, gonna try to give props to a smaller-division guy playing well. And, well, I’m biased. But at least I admit it!
Tennessee Fans: We win at teh Internet!
by bobo_the_vol on Jan 20, 2010 6:36 PM EST up reply actions
As long as we win it dont matter a bit.....lol...
and it was an interesting look at the historicals…….but a smart man told me once that the future is just history that hasnt been written yet…….and that what was written in the past does not have to have any bearing on that……..I tend to agree……
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
I prefer ...
… those who fail to learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.
Although, in the instant case, that could be a good thing. :-)
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
I really
don’t know because I wasn’t alive the last time we were 18-0. I do remember blowing teams out of the water though during regular season/early tourney and then getting knocked out by some no name team. So I just don’t know but I am very happy with the way things are. Nervous but happy.
No need to be
nervous. There are far more important things in life to be concerned with than the possibility of losing a basketball game. No one enjoys losing but for now it appears that victories will far outnumber defeats. Enjoy!
Experience Level
Accepting your caveat on statistical validity and recognizing the extra work involved, yet also noting the perhaps overarching missing ingredient of this team, experience, it would be instructive to compare to those prior squads in those terms.
"The principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale." --Thomas Jefferson
Well a couple of things come to mind in regard to
Pitino’s margins. First, college basketball has changed since we put up those numbers. The pressing, fast breaking, 3 point shooting that marked his teams were almost unique at that time…..that’s what made the UK-Arkansas games so much fun to watch. The press doesn’t bother the majority of teams like it did back then because so many practice against it every day. I can’t think of really ANY NCAA team in the last 8 years or so that’s put up the “spurtability” numbers that UK did during that time. Pitino himself has showed that he had caught lightening in a bottle during that period……no Louisville team has come close to those kinds of numbers.
The other point is obviously the talent level that UK had during those 3 highest margin years peaking with the 96 Championship team. I mean, no school that I can think of off the top of my head has had than many NBA players on one team. I’ve always said that in my opinion, Pitino would never have won the Championship that Tubby did because Tubby’s best players were Jeff Shephard and Scott Padgett and a bunch of guys who got on a great roll through the tournament.
I think it might be more pertinent to compare our margins this year to Kansas and Texas because these 3 teams seem a little better than the rest of the bunch.
You can't fix "stupid"!
Pitino has also said he
would not of won it with that team.
by Grasslands1 on Jan 21, 2010 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
Well North Carolina
is about to go down AGAIN! UGGHHH. I don’t like them but our RPI is taking some hits.
RPI
Don’t worry about that. If UK takes care of business, i.e. wins the SEC and SECT, they’ll get a number one seed.
I will say it for you two....
GREAT minds think alike. :-)
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
With all due respect, WHOGAS?
At least until bracket time. IF we keep winning, we’ll be OK. If we don’t, then something will have gone wrong.
No moral victories--it's all about Ws and Ls!!!
And, for the record, it puts one more number between us and them. Heh, heh.
No moral victories--it's all about Ws and Ls!!!
Bracket time-
I think UK, Texas,and Kansas are all number one seeds. Villanova or Syracuse will fight it out for last spot…
"You are what you are and you ain't what you ain't"
I am not
feeling good about Kansas. I have only watched two games with them, Memphis and Tennessee which one was close and the other they lost. I just wasn’t that impressed. Man though Syracuse, whew don’t want to face those guys. They are good. I think Duke will take a 1 seed.
If Kansas-
Were to get blown out by Texas, Puke could slip in. By the way, N. Carolina looks like they need some coaching to me. Ole Roy looks dazed and confused tonight…
"You are what you are and you ain't what you ain't"
I dont know about that, but many more losses and he will be trying to coach with his
butt in one…..!!
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
OK
I was wrong, I am not unhappy about UNC losing………………just saw the look on Ole Roy’s face………..LOVING IT. Maybe they won’t get to 2,000 after all :)
Now Old Roy probably has
his own fans saying don’t miss it.
by Grasslands1 on Jan 21, 2010 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
But.......but........but
they are defending NC, right? heehee :-D
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
that's because Roy doesnt let anyone in that can speak aloud......lol
to avoid any improprieties like he had earlier in the season……..lol
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
outta top 25???
Will they have to search for their school in the rankings? ?
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
and UK #1
evil laughter commencing. Its schadenfreude time, baby.
No matter where you're at, there you are
Maybe ol Roy ....
will start wearing that stupid looking arm brace thing … that had to be the all time biggest piece of drama equipment ever …. I can’t imagine a DOCTOR coming up with that goofy looking thing!!
Hey
this is unrelated and I dont want to do a fanpost again but we are looking to go to Lexington the weekend of the Tennessee game. I know that we won’t score tickets but I want my children to really understand the history that is Kentucky. Do yall have any recommendations as to what I should take them too in Lexington?
ESPN's GameDay is going to be here
early that afternoon before the game. You might be able to get tickets to that. I read that the ’96 and ’98 teams might be there.
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
Scalpers
If you wait until just before the game starts, or even a little later you should be able to pick up a ticket from a scalper at a reasonable price. Take a drive north on Paris Pike and check out the horse farms. Take some of the side roads and just meander around.
by chicagoblues on Jan 21, 2010 4:15 AM EST up reply actions
You could come to my house
and we could drink wine and teach them the fight song and My Old Kentucky Home. lol
…and if you ask nicely I would even show you my BCG memorabilia collection. ;0
It is not worth an intelligent man’s time to be in the majority. By definition, there are already enough people to do that.
by kentuckygirl0724 on Jan 20, 2010 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
I have
a feeling that you would be good for them:). They like Duke. They need a good kick in the pants :). Seriously though, I don’t get to Kentucky much. I really want them to understand why I love my Cats. Maybe I could pass it down that way :)
I think that is SO awesome
that you want your kids to get the history of Kentucky!! I LOVE living in Kentucky. There is no better place to be than Lexington when b-ball season gets rolling and be right in the middle of it all.
On a sadder much more serious note…. DUKE? Seriously Oh, how that must break your heart! ;)
http://www.thingstodo.com/states/KY/bluegrass_heartlands.htm
It is not worth an intelligent man’s time to be in the majority. By definition, there are already enough people to do that.
by kentuckygirl0724 on Jan 20, 2010 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
I just
hope it works. I literally was so sad when I was at the Ole Miss game a few years ago and was watching a Daddy talk to his son about Kentucky basketball. He was sitting beside us and it just broke my heart. That is how my Dad and I bonded. We don’t have the best relationship in the world but get us on Kentucky basketball and we can talk for hours. I am so pumped though about being up there. I am daring my husband to wear his Tennessee orange. LOL. On the Duke thing yeah, I know. Its started off as a “rebellion” because that was the team I hated the most. Now, though my son just loves them. Just sent him to bed in tears because they lost. Uggh.
Thanks for the link :)
Tears
I’m sure the duke players did the same. ;)
It is not worth an intelligent man’s time to be in the majority. By definition, there are already enough people to do that.
by kentuckygirl0724 on Jan 20, 2010 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
I have a very bright daughter
that if she keeps it up will have her choice of colleges. She said she wanted to go to Duke a couple of times and I didn’t say anything because i certainly don’t want to bust her academic hopes. Finally she said it a third time and I just had to tell her that a UK fans child just can’t go to Duke and told her a couple of instances why. I did say she could go to Vanderbilt though. Then she got into one of the best high schools in the country and I told her she could go to Duke if she wanted. But she surprised me and has not given Duke anymore thought. I guess I have done a good job a brain washing her. That is not easy to do living around all of these gators.
by Grasslands1 on Jan 21, 2010 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
Mine wants to go to secondary degree work in the medical field at
Auburn…….grrrrrr……it just kills me, and her Aunt is a Bama fan!!!
lol
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
Hey-
One of my daughters is a grad student at UT Chattanooga. UGH! But thankfully, I raised her right, and she sports a chrome and blue UK license plate on the front of her Honda Accord!! GO CATS!!
"You are what you are and you ain't what you ain't"
Duke Haters Are Everywhere
Dennis Gartman is a well-known, well-respected commodities trader and a NCSU alum. This from his daily newsletter:
Regarding jobless claims we are as confused as everyone else by the vagaries and exigencies of claims, extended claims, expiring claims et al, and we leave it to others wiser than we (perhaps a few Duke University graduate economists who are licking their wounds this morning after the magnificent "beat down" that our beloved NC State delivered upon them last evening on the basketball court, and who have nothing better to do to bring them out of their certain despair!!) to pay heed to economic minutiae.
"The principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale." --Thomas Jefferson
see my new avatar....
my son got the hat on his own. ironically, he did not know big cuz was wearing one, but guess i have trained him so well, he thinks alot like a uk bball player…
btw, was thinking if memphis won last night, it might be time to put my uk wheel cover back on my jeep. alas, the streak was stopped so figured since its Cal’s fault for the streak ending, i could not.
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Jan 21, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
I have a new avatar too-
It’s that deer in the headlights look, that we’re seeing on the faces of our SEC opponents! :-P
"You are what you are and you ain't what you ain't"
Words to "My Old Kentucky Home"
The new words, or the old ones?
"Ignorance, I can fix, stupidity, well that's another matter!"-82nd Airborne NCO
have you still got that video of him and Cutler, Tink????....awww...aint that sweet??
lol……
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
Here are some ideas:
Shakertown on US 68. Camp Nelson on US27 s. Jefferson Davis’ birthplace is on High Street within walking distance of Rupp Arena . Mary Todd Lincoln’s birthplace, also walking distance from Rupp. The UK Basketball Museum in Rupp.
"Ignorance, I can fix, stupidity, well that's another matter!"-82nd Airborne NCO
i think it closed....
if Cal were at uk when it closed, he could have saved it….
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Jan 21, 2010 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty nice
I think there is definitely something to this approach: MOV is essentially a way to measure the difference in offensive and defensive effectiveness – you would expect teams that do the best job at scoring and preventing opponent scoring to do well.
One thing I would be interested in is the average MOV for NCAA tournament teams for each year, though it might be best to restrict it to Sweet 16 teams or top 7 seeds or something similar. That’s a lot of extra work, but it would also provide some context for UK’s own numbers.
Cool graph too!
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
brief followup
I was interested, so I just looked at the MOV numbers for the last few NCAA champs:
UNC: 17.8
Kansas: 19.0
Florida: 17.2
Florida: 14.8
UNC: 17.7
UConn: 14.9
Syracuse: 10.0
Maryland: 14.1
Naturally they tend to be rather high since you have to be pretty good to win the title. UK’s current MOV fits in pretty nicely with that group, but I wouldn’t place any predictive ability in it. For one thing, I have no idea how many other teams had similar MOVs but failed to win the title – I suspect it is a high number.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
Yes.
It also depends a lot on the conference you’re looking at.
But it’s fun, and I think directionally it is semi-useful. It could probably be made more useful with a large sample and some crosstabs.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
i am beginning to think that letting a team get back in it is part of this team's personality
my cat (no pun intended) likes to catch moles, shake them a bit, and then let them go. she then pounces on them again. this team is like that – they like attacking a team several times a game before finishing them off. hopefully, come tournament time, they just finish their opponents off from the get go…
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Jan 20, 2010 9:30 PM EST reply actions
I personally think that the guys are just trying to be good sports and not rub it in
anyone’s face how good they are……they are just trying to be nice…….lol
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
wash you head yet?
I have be correctly accused of having a 'football fetish'. You know, someone who doesn't think football is the warm up sport to basketball season.
Agree
It has been repeated ad nauseum.
It is not worth an intelligent man’s time to be in the majority. By definition, there are already enough people to do that.
by kentuckygirl0724 on Jan 20, 2010 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
If the Cats were winning them all by 20.......
we would be worried about what would happen in a close game, LOL.
So Long As They W 40 Games
I don’t care if they W by 2 points or 20.
by FortyYearCatFan on Jan 20, 2010 11:30 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Doug Gottlieb cares how much we win by.
He has us ranked third in his “oh so official top whatever”. Kansas #1 and I believe TX was #2. This was the day before yesterday. His reasoning was
a) we are very poor outside shots (which I’m inclined to disagree with, at least in an overall sense)
b) we played too close with GA and Auburn and they are bottom level SEC teams.
He then went on to praise Kansas for it’s efficiency and said that they are the best team top to bottom in basketball. I assume he forgot the loss to a severely crippled Volunteer squad. I also assume he didn’t see them squeak by Memphis and play maybe the weakest Non-Con schedule of any top ten team. I guess he wasn’t expecting Baylor to give them a game tonight either. As far as TX, overtime with A&M, a loss to K-State?
I know we must embrace the hate, but this man isn’t small potatoes. He’s making big money on a REALLY BIG network, and can’t just say that the ONLY undefeated team could, arguably, just maybe, be the best in the land. He has to be a homer and defend his Big 12 schools. I hope we play Kansas and we beat them by 30. TX matches up much better against us and would frighten me in a tourney situation, but the Jayhawks don’t want anything to do with us. If Travis Ford wasn’t coaching his Alma Mater, I might just say something about them too!
I left TN and now I am back in the Bluegrass... just in time for Football and Keeneland! Life is great!
I meant
If Travis Ford wasn’t coaching Gottlieb’s Alma Mater
I left TN and now I am back in the Bluegrass... just in time for Football and Keeneland! Life is great!
by sleepytimetea on Jan 20, 2010 11:55 PM EST up reply actions
I think Texas should still be #1
even if we beat Arkansas. They went on the road and lost to a top 10 team. We are playing low level teams way to close for what ever reason. This team seems to have the problem of playing down to the competition. Just because we are undefeated doesn’t mean we should automatically be #1 IMO..
by Grasslands1 on Jan 21, 2010 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
traitor :)
actually, i do not see another game on our schedule that would be a “better” loss than to KSU (for TX) or UT (Kansas). perhaps losing at Miss State would be a better loss than KS’s at UT.
At the very least tx should only drop to #2, but i bet KU is #2….
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Jan 21, 2010 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe...
but beating then #12 UCONN in their backyard at MSG shouldn’t be considered small potatoes. Also, TX going into overtime with Texas A&M could fall in the low level category. I completely understand what you are saying, and certainly feel that we could play better at times…. but for a commentator to openly state that the only undefeated team in Div I is #3 is, well interesting at best.
I left TN and now I am back in the Bluegrass... just in time for Football and Keeneland! Life is great!
by sleepytimetea on Jan 21, 2010 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
He can vote it....
He just can’t say it! Classic.
I left TN and now I am back in the Bluegrass... just in time for Football and Keeneland! Life is great!
by sleepytimetea on Jan 21, 2010 8:06 PM EST up reply actions
Margins..
If we would just stay hammer down , we would have huge MOV’s. They seem to let up, like it was the playground or something. Otherwise, I’m not worried, these guys keep getting it done in the end.
"Ignorance, I can fix, stupidity, well that's another matter!"-82nd Airborne NCO
Steady
I’m not so worried about margins. I think we just need to start having consistent, strong efforts throughout the game. We still have too many lapses in our efforts. If we can keep our heads in it the entire forty minutes the long margins will come. Maybe that’s why the coach should shorten the line-up. Too many times, one person or another’s head isn’t into the game.
I am of the
deep bench school of thought. Yes, running a lot of players in and out breaks up the cohesiveness of a smaller group of players getting more minutes together thus slows down their progress. The team as a whole continues to improve more slowly but come tournament time where it is survive and advance, a deep bench is crucial to running the NCAA gauntlet. You can’t have one of your key players get in foul trouble and be replaced by someone with a deer in the headlights expression on their face. Another thing about substituting early and often is that your best players still have their legs for the last 5 minutes when the game is on the line. I want to see us win, I am not obsessed with seeing us dominate.
I would like to see this year's team and every year's team
put the game away by the 7 minute timeout in the 2nd half. That way the bench can come in and get quality minutes with the starters until the 3 minute timeout and then it could be all bench players unless a starter needed another steal/rebound/assist, etc. for game record or whatever.
I have kleptomania,
but when it gets bad,
I take something for it.
In the
later rounds of the NCAA tournament there will be few blowouts. If our bench only gets minutes against lesser opposition in a meaningless stretch of the game, they do not get the"game" experience they will need to contribute when it counts. Putting key bench players on the floor while the game is still on the line is the only way to get them ready. I think coach Cal is doing a pretty darn good job of it so far.
yes the bench needs play throughout the game
but the starters should be sitting extended minutes beginning at the 7 minute timeout.
i base this on the talent level and bench currently on the roster. we keep builiding large leads in just about EVERY game yet play “nice” until crunch time. when you have such a large lead it would be nice to see it sustained (withstand the herculean efforts by the opposition to get back into the game) and eventually build upon it (once the other team has run out of gas).
i see nothing wrong with “running up the score” if you are substituting players liberally. also, i doubt that any UK team will ever do this since you don’t see it in sports too often anymore. It’s like the PC attitude adopted by this country has infected sports and everyone is encouraged to be a “nice guy” so much so that demolishing a team is deemed inappropriate. Good sportsmanship is essential and right but being nice to the point that you could lose a game is not cool.
I would just like to see more of a killer instinct in my team rather than a cat playing with a mole. (thanks memphis) It’s almost as if they get bored after they’ve gotten a lead and get bored with executing offensively and defensively. Notice how the team gets more aggressive defensively once the opposition has “made it a game”.
I also am pleased with the job Coach is doing, so don’t mistake my comments as criticism of his performance.
GO BIG BLUE!
I have kleptomania,
but when it gets bad,
I take something for it.
Eric Bledsoe
Moving up in the freshman power rankings from 21 to 17, arrow pointing up. Way to go Eric, keep it up.
think he'll leave after this year as well?
it would be a helluva hit to our team.
I have kleptomania,
but when it gets bad,
I take something for it.
yes it would, but I also think that DeAndre will be much further along by next year
and dont rule out Calipari signing another wunderkind…….
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
Liggins is not a point guard on this team
and Cal has said that more than once.
by Grasslands1 on Jan 21, 2010 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
understood, but I trust him a lot more now than I did when he was under BCG
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
Great article @Yahoo basketball sports
Wetzel has a great piece about Coach Cal, and the Hoops for Haiti marathon. Worth the read, and another positive for UK in the mass media.
Link
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news?slug=dw-ukhaiti012110&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
No matter where you're at, there you are
Great story!
Definitely positive stuff for Cal and our program.
I have kleptomania,
but when it gets bad,
I take something for it.
someone else who is finally getting it.......man am I glad to see this.
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
Lady Cats
Coach Mitchell Twittered that he needs a big crowd tonight @ the lady cats game against Arkansas. Honoring Coach Brooks and his wife Karen at halftime. Wish I could go, but too far away. Show some support for the other half of the basketball program, and Coach Brooks.
Dang...
I wish we had been having these kinds of conversations last year. Worried about margin of victory! Last year I was worried if we could just win enough to get into the tournament. There is no worry about that this year and that my friends is something to raise a glass for…
Xbox Live Gamertag: hoopchi
Numbers that stand out
If the MOV is 10,UK has made the Elite 8(except 94, 04)If the MOV is 15+,the Cats have made the Final Four every year.Another thing,if the MOV is less than 10,UK never made it to a regional final.Pretty interesting numbers.
data relationship
The bar chart is interesting, and particularly helps visualize the change over time of MOV and post-season achievement.
To examine the relationship between MOV and post-season achievement, it would be interesting to see the 2 statistics plotted in a scatterplot (which would ignore the time variable). This would be very easy to do…in Excel for example.
Thanks for the info and accompanying commentary!

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