Kentucky Football: Defensive Expectations

by Truzenzuzex on Sep 3, 2009 8:53 AM EDT in Football Comment 13 comments

by Ed Reinke - AP

Jeremy Jarmon and Myron Pryor's absence is going to be felt in terms of sacks and stopping shorter runs.

Continuing with yesterday's examination of national and conference rankings from last year compared to what we might expect this year, we are going to perform the same exercise on the defense.

Kentucky's defense loses a good number of players from last year's solid defensive squad -- that's the bad news. The good news is that Trevard Lindley and Micah Johnson, just to name two, are back as seniors to lead the squad. The defense features a mix of experience and youth, and nowhere is that more prevalent than on the defensive line. Jeremy Jarmon's unfortunate loss of his final year of eligibility has put UK in a position where they are very inexperienced at the edges, with a redshirt freshman (Collins Ukwu) at one end and JUCO transfer (DeQuin Evans) at the other. Despite the fact that the defensive tackles are experienced, the depth behind them is not.

The linebacking corps, on the other hand, could actually be better than last year's group, and is deep with experience. The defensive backfield is a bit green, but with Lindley back there and rising stars Randall Burden and Winston Guy, the defensive backfield should be as good, if not better than last year.

With all that in mind, here's how I think the defense shakes out:

Defensive Statistics
	2008 Rank		2009 Outlook
Statistic	National	Conference	National	Conference	Comments
Scoring defense	35	8	45-55	7	This will probably drop off a little due to youth.
Rushing defense	57	9	Mid 60's	7	Same as scoring defense.
Passing defense	40	9	35-40	5	I think we have a better secondary, but may not bring as much QB pressure.
Total defense	40	11	45-55	7	Not much change.
Opponent first downs	13	2	Mid 30's	5	I think we will give up more significantly more first downs due to youth in the line.
Fumbles forced	10	1	15-20	3	We should still do well in this stat.
Fumbles recovered	14	1	15-20	2	Ditto.
Opponent third down conv.	22	6	Mid 30's	8	More first downs allowed = more third down conversions allowed.
Opponent red zone conv.	40	5	Mid 30's	4	I think we might be tougher in the red zone this year.
Sacks	29	3	40-45	5	The loss of Jarmon and Pryor will hurt this stat a lot.
Tackles for loss	25	2	Mid 30's	4	Kind of a trade off here – better Micah, but missing Jeremy.
Interceptions	59	7	Teens	1	I think UK might lead the SEC in picks this year.

In my opinion, the SEC overall will be somewhat weaker than it was last year, primarily due to youth at quarterback. I think that is likely to translate into more picks for UK, especially with Trevard Lindley roaming around in the secondary and the rise of Chandler Burden and Winston Guy. Paul Warford is also extremely capable, and with some of the wounded ducks we are going to see this year, a lot of picks looks very real.

Despite the loss of Pryor and Jarmon, I think the D-line will be solid enough, but we will probably give up more 5-6 yard runs than last year, and therefore more first downs. As the field becomes compressed in the red zone, though, I expect coverage to make it hard to throw, and the linebacking corps' strength to kick in, so I actually look for improvement in that stat. While it may look like we will improve in scoring and rushing D, I don't think that will be so much because UK is better, but more because the conference as a whole is worse.

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Teams are going to try to run on UK

Then they are going to try to run some more. UK’s secondary, overall, is one of the best in the conference. Paul Warford is going to see a lot of balls flung his way (that doesn’t sound right) as teams are not going to test Trevard Lindley with unproven QBs.

First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...

by btcoop71 on Sep 3, 2009 8:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Heh.

Warford is being pushed hard by Randall Burden. He will either pick off some passes, or he will wind up as the #2. Burden is taller and probably faster than Warford. Brooks thinks he may be as good as Lindley.

We’ll see. I agree that they won’t throw too many balls in Lindley’s direction, unless it is one of the big boys like Julio Jones or Georga’s Green. Those guys are taller than Lindley and can go up and get the ball.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Sep 3, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense going to be a lil spotty at first

but shore up after the UL game. Especially with the help from offense staying on field for longer than 3 n out.

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Sometimes I even put it in the food.

by bluecrip on Sep 3, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Stopping the short run?

Stopping the short run? That’s not what I’m worried about. I’m worried that the short run will turn into the 10+ yard run. Jarmon and Pryor seemed to be the only UK defenders from the last couple of years who knew how to tackle correctly. The number of missed tackles we have every season is absolutely criminal within the SEC.

by BlowOutYourBlood on Sep 3, 2009 11:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think ...

… our linebacking corps will handle the runs that go significantly past the line of scrimmage, as well as the d-backs.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Sep 3, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One plus for this year..

..(according to Brooks) is we have more speed at defense. This has yet to be seen but, if true, we will be relying on it early in the year due to inexperience. Speed can cover a lot of mistakes.

by hoboat33 on Sep 3, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes, good point.

But the Cats do need to get their tackling form right. Fundamentals are important.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Sep 3, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The '06 team could tackle

but that was the first in many years. Seems like its almost our defensive identity.

by hoboat33 on Sep 3, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Football vs Basketball

I just noticed the 7 comments on this story in 8 hours! I rest my case, The BBN is about basketball. This same artible about basketball would have filled the site.

Happy Days are here again The sky is all ways BLUE again Happy days are here again !

by oldcat70 on Sep 3, 2009 5:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I just take these truths to be self-evident

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Sep 3, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think, oldcat 70, that seems to be true...

I love basketball, but I am beginning to love football too. This is my fourth year of closely following the football Cats. After all, they are Wildcats too, and I am loving the game itself. I cannot say I know everything about it, but enough to watch and shout at the refs…haha….My knowledge of the game is growing year by year, but with fewer games than round-ball, it may take another year or two to grasp it all.
Go Cats !
:-)

Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!

by a2d2 on Sep 3, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2 days til kick-off

fire up the grill and ice down the suds

by hoboat33 on Sep 3, 2009 5:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

When the team goes 10-2

especially for the third year in a row, then we’ll see 145 posts in 8 hours. This team will be good on defense from the start. If they stay healthy, this team will be one of the top D-units in the country. They have pass defense that by game 6 will be tighter then a tick between your toes. Guy back there roaming around will make all the corners much tougher, and they don’t need much help. The ends will get the around the corners, the tackles will be better then we think. Burden will prove to be a guy who can rush outside or inside. I’m tellin ya, watch for him. Evans will be a lightening rod. Micah will finish off the middle. But!!!!!! The guy who will make the biggest difference by the end of the year will be Travathen. It always makes it harder to run when they know your running, and running is the after thought in today’s game. We pass first, and that won’t come easy with this years secondary. I look for big things from this “D”.

When a great nation falls, it falls from within. There is only two ways to do this. One must "take" power by force, or when the other side simply "gives" it to them. me

by blubloodcatfan on Sep 3, 2009 10:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs