Kentucky Football: Saturday Is On It's Way
by Glenn Logan on Sep 2, 2009 8:58 AM EDT
in Kentucky Wildcats Football
Email
PrintLadies and gentlemen, boys and girls, it's time for football season in Kentucky!
I know -- there have been no basketball posts around here for awhile. Don't worry, they will come, but let's all focus on the precious present, and our present is NCAA football.
Right now, Ken is looking at the various areas of the Wildcats gridiron campaign, and doing a bang-up job as always. Me, I am looking for inspiration as usual at this point in the season, but it just occurred to me that while Ken is getting detailed, I should fly up to 50,000 feet and get general, so that we don't lose sight of the forest due to a close examination of the trees.
To that end, the purpose of this commentary is to examine how Kentucky ranked last year in some important statistical areas, and try to prognosticate on the direction and magnitude of the change this year. In this post, I will examine the offensive statistics, next post the defensive, and finally the special teams and miscellaneous stats. So without further ado, let's take a look.
Here we go:
| Offensive Statistics | |||||
| 2008 Rank | 2009 Outlook | ||||
| Statistic | National | Conference | National | Conference | Comments |
| Scoring offense | 87 | 6 | Mid 50's | 4 | I expect a big improvement. Both the lines and the skill positions are significantly better. |
| Rushing offense | 83 | 8 | Mid 60's | 5 | Better lines, Locke available, older Smith & Allen = improvement. |
| Passing offense | 96 | 8 | Mid 40's | 4 | Better receivers, older receivers, experienced quarterback. |
| Total offense | 106 | 9 | Mid 50's | 5 | Hard to go down from here. |
| First downs | 105 | 6 | 55-65 | 2 | I think we'll get more due to a more diverse but controlled offense. |
| Turnover margin | 35 | 4 | Mid 50's | 6 | If Brooks can keep this at 35 or better, it is worth an extra victory for UK. |
| 3rd down conversions | 110 | 12 | Mid 30's | 5 | I think our O-line is the key to this stat, and better, older receivers. |
| Red zone conversions | 102 | 9 | Mid 30's | 6 | We were 7th in the nation in 2007. |
| Time of possession | 80 | 11 | Mid 30's | 4 | I expect us to be a bit like Georgia last year in this stat, more ball control than quick-strike. |
| Sacks allowed | 5 | 1 | Mid 20's | 4 | More passes, more sacks |
| Tackles for loss allowed | 12 | 1 | Mid 20's | 3 | More runs around the edges with Locke and Smith. |
| Fumbles lost | 28 | 3 | High 40's | 5 | Longer time of possession will increase this stat. |
If Mike Hartline really is as improved as many say, we should expect UK to get off many more plays on offense this year, more first downs, more time of possession and a better overall offensive game. That will likely result in our turnover margin and fumbles lost taking a turn for the worse, but the tradeoff is a good one.
I would really like to see UK in the low 20's in red zone conversions, but I'm not quite ready to go there yet. I do expect third down and red zone conversions to be significantly improved, if for no other reason than they could hardly be much worse than last year. That will take enormous pressure off the defense and allow them to get some decent rest, and even though the defense is not as mature as last year, I think less game reps will produce fewer injuries on defense and better overall balance.
It all depends on Hartline, and the ability of his receivers to catch his throws. I have a great deal of confidence in our O-line, as it is experienced and, for a Kentucky team, quite deep. I am very excited about the potential for this Kentucky offense for the 2009 campaign.
17 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Agree
If we can at least present the threat of stretching the field with some well timed passing plays, it will go a long way to opening up our running game. If we can do that, we can hold ht eball and allow our defense to get a rest and that will allow them to wreak havoc on the other team.
Hartline doesn’t have to be great… but he does have to be at least SEC adequate. I’m excited to see what kind of product we put on the field Saturday!
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
Here's a guide
Hartline throws for an average of 250+ yds per game & 1 TD, the Cats do at least the 6-6 and bowl. Less than that, it’s anyone’s guess……
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
Well,
if Hartline averages 250 yds through the air (and a 60%+ completion percentage), then UK is in for another historic season, one in which they win 8, maybe 9 games. Unless of course he’s throwing the ball 40 times per game to make up for the lack of a running attack :)
Is it Saturday yet?
:-)
:-)
That’s one for the offense and one for the defense. Go Cats ! !
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
I'll add one for the special teams!
Submitted without additional comment: Randall Cobb is holding on PATs and FG attempts.
Can’t wait for Saturday.
by Thomas Hunt Morgan on Sep 2, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Cobb at holder
At the very least, it forces the opposing team to spend time during the week game planning for fake FG’s.
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
Tru,
I’d hate to go down in ranking on anything – ie. sacks allowed, fumbles – but if the rest come up it would be okay. Thanks for the info.
3 days til kick-off. pinch me
Has Hartline really improved?
Who knows? We’ll find out a lot on Saturday. Reading all the tea leaves coming from camp , however, it seems so. Rich Brooks seems pleased, he’s played well in the preseason. To add one more bit of good news, Hartline was named a game captain for Saturday. There are a lot of other suitable candidates for captain (Cobb, the injury conquering Locke, Christian Johnson) so for Hartline to get the nod above all else, is insightful and telling. Quite a turn of events from a guy who infamously blamed others for this demotion last season.
by Thomas Hunt Morgan on Sep 2, 2009 3:43 PM EDT reply actions
Well ...
… Brooks has been saying so emphatically, and if there is any coach I would tend to believe on that, it’s him.
In my book, he counts as a “who.” :-)
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
By all accounts, he's doing well.
I think you will see quite a bit of him on Saturday.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
A little off topic here
I was wondering when this would come up as I read it on Monday. Jonathon George lost his HS and Middle school last Friday when the coach collapsed with a heart attack…only 48 years old. Larry Vaught has the story.
Chip Cosby reported
Micah Johnson had to leave practice early and may not play on Saturday. Hate to test our depth in the first game of the season.
He shouldn't play
Unless Johnson is 100%, there is simply no reason to play him in this game, at least in my opinion. UK has LB depth, it should not be a problem at all. The SEC slate starts soon, that’s when UK will need him.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Community Guidelines
[UPDATED 01/18/2012]
Related FanPosts on A Sea Of Blue
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
