Hey, Preseason Prognosticators: Am I Missing Something?
by Anything but Gatorade on Aug 28, 2009 1:49 PM EDT
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44 comments
Picture is unrelated. Via pictureisunrelated.com
So I, like some of you who can manage to distract yourselves from the "Guiding Light" episode that seems to be the everyday lives of Rick Pitino and Billy Gillispie, have been reading quite a few preseason picks for the SEC lately. And I'd say 4 out of 5 of them have Kentucky finishing dead last in the SEC East. In most years, I'd say that's par for the course and work on mending my tent so I could camp out for Midnight Madness tickets. But if the last three years have taught us anything, it's that Kentucky doesn't totally suck at football anymore. You've read what Ken, Tru et al. have had to say about the team. It's probably better (if reports from camp are true) than it was last year, and even though last year was tough to swallow, it still ended in a bowl win. So you'd think that other people might notice, right? Wrong. This one from Team Speed Kills in particular just really grinds my gears, disclaimer by the author notwithstanding:
Kentucky
DATE OPPONENT OUTCOME 5-Sep @ Miami (OH) W 19-Sep Louisville W 26-Sep Florida L 3-Oct Alabama L 10-Oct @ South Carolina L 17-Oct @ Auburn L 24-Oct Louisiana-Monroe W 31-Oct Mississippi State W 7-Nov Eastern Kentucky L 14-Nov @ Vanderbilt L 21-Nov @ Georgia L 28-Nov Tennessee L Kentucky just wasn't very good last season, and they made it to bowl season largely on the back of a terrible non-conference schedule. The terrible non-conference schedule is back, but I just don't see improvement from the Wildcats that many of the other conference teams will make. Going with Mike Hartline under center over Randall Cobb didn't inspire confidence, and losing Jeremy Jarmon was the last straw.
One SEC win. One. With two All-America candidates in the defensive secondary. With one of the few QBs in the league with actual game experience. With a freaking stable of thoroughbred running backs and receivers that can apparently catch the football now.
Are we still dealing with this? The cupboard behind last year's starters wasn't bare, folks. If Coach Brooks says we're better than we were last year, I believe him. Some might chalk that up to coach-speak, but if there's one currency we know Papa Rich doesn't trade in, it's BS. So am I right to get my shorts in a wad every time I read something like this, or should I just suck it up and let the Cats prove it on the field? I'm inclined to do both, but let me know if you see it differently.
UPDATE: Here's a link to the story.
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You lose all credibility
with me when you put an L next to EKU. I’m going with the theory that the author was drunk while looking over that schedule. Seriously???
We may not be great, but we deserve more credit than that!
by ukcat2169 on Aug 28, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
In fairness
Year2 didn’t have that on his league table, he gave us an extra win there. I’d have to assume that’s EKU.
http://anythingbutgatorade.blogspot.com - yet another SEC sports blog
by Anything but Gatorade on Aug 28, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
L vs EKU stood out to me as well
But the SEC bit is difficult to argue with compellingly. Yes, we’re better. But are we that much better?
Can we beat South Carolina? Sure
Can we beat Tennessee? Sure
Can we beat Vanderbilt? Sure
Can we beat Auburn? Maybe
Now… will we go 4-0 in those games to give us a respectable SEC record of 5-3? I really don’t think so.
Until we start hanging some wins against the middle of the SEC pack with regularity, I don’t expect to see any non-homers giving us any credit for improvement.
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
by chirop1 on Aug 28, 2009 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree with chirop
I think that’s the crux of the entire issue. We know were better but I think it’s going to take sustained success against those middle pack SEC teams to make anyone else think were better. Im not worried about the hating at all. Brooks is sounding pretty confident about this team and Im beginning to think we could all be surprised.
DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!
by davw83 on Aug 28, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In other words ...
… we have to prove it on the field.
Novel concept. :-)
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Aug 29, 2009 6:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kentucky
will also upset either Auburn or Vandy on the road. If they can, 6 wins is very plausible.
Whomever loses between the Cats and the Cards has no bowl shot it seems to me.
by BR7 on Aug 28, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well ...
… I actually think that the loser just faces a harder road.
I’m not familiar with the Big East this year, so I can’t comment on the Cardinals chances there. I assume there are at least a couple of teams that Louisville should beat (Syracuse comes to mind). Kentucky faces tougher comp, but there are several teams that UK could beat and an upset of one of the big boys is always a possibility.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Aug 29, 2009 6:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weeeeeelllllll Son it's like this....
If cocknfire REALLY knew what he was talking about he would think just a little more about what is happening with this team. This team has impressed Brooks this year with it’s physical and mental abilities. I have NEVER heard him say that since he has been here. He says they are MUCH better than last year’s squad. I myself have been hung up on the concerns over Hartlne’s arm. Brooks says that is even better. Brooks does not make statements of that nature lightly. I was concerned about improving on last year’s 7-6. After hearing Brooks and his optimism, I give us 7-6 and maybe 8-5. 4-8???? the man already lost some respect from me earlier this month with his nonsense concerning his attitude toward the NCAA….this makes me think he is a joke.
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
by ALLBLUCAT on Aug 28, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fair Comparison
chirop1; I agree with your thinking- but same should be true for SC, Tenn, Vandy or Auburn.
“will [they] go 4-0 in those [pick 4 games MOTP from their SEC schedule].” Non-homers should certainly have wits about them to think we’re = at the least to Vandy. They went to their FIRST bowl in how many years!?! KY has beeb to three consecutive and won them against strong competition. I think if these 4 teams split the 4 MOTP games along with KY, that would present a more likely type of prediction for all these teams.
by MacKYcat on Aug 28, 2009 2:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
If, between UK, UT, Vandy, USC Jr., and one West opponent, the three East teams went 2-2, I think that’s a plausible scenario. I don’t see UK with more than 3 conference wins, 4 would be superlative. But certainly not one.
http://anythingbutgatorade.blogspot.com - yet another SEC sports blog
by Anything but Gatorade on Aug 28, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, they seem not to have much UK respect over there
Especially when it comes to football. The loss predicted to EKU is probably just a jab to get a reaction.
First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...
by btcoop71 on Aug 28, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Twas just a typo.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
by Year2 on Aug 28, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah.
Good. That makes sense.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Aug 29, 2009 6:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I definitely agree
with you chirop. I believe we have the abillity to beat all four of those teams. Will we? I wouldn’t put my money on it. I would be happy to be bowling again, but the EKU deal about made me fall out of my chair.
by ukcat2169 on Aug 28, 2009 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sorry fellow Cat fans
fter 3-4 games we will all be back to basketball. Well I lied about being sorry! I really don’t care if they play a game. Don’t like the game and never watch it! Bring on Coach Cal and the real Cats.
Happy Days are here again The sky is all ways BLUE again Happy days are here again !
by oldcat70 on Aug 28, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Blasphemy
http://anythingbutgatorade.blogspot.com - yet another SEC sports blog
by Anything but Gatorade on Aug 28, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You might be gone in 3-4 games
but I’ll be in it to the end, regardless of results. I enjoy football way to much to not follow every game.
by hoboat33 on Aug 28, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hoboat
I realy ment every one else will be back to basketball. I will never leave! I was in school in late 50’s.I live in western Ky. There was one (1) football team in my county, there were 3 in the first region. The onlt team in our county was every one’s worst enemy. I went to one game and didn’t know where the ball was most of the time. Everyone was drinking and it was roudy in the stands. Didn’t need that!
Happy Days are here again The sky is all ways BLUE again Happy days are here again !
by oldcat70 on Aug 28, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry to hear that
That first impression has kept you from enjoying an incredible sport and everything that goes with it from pee wee leagues to the pros. We’ll keep working on you, tho. ;-)
by hoboat33 on Aug 28, 2009 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Count me in hoboat
I’ll be there to the very end because I also love watching football. We are going to surprise some teams this year. Just watch us!
by kykat51 on Aug 28, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Football is great
The reason UK fans dont like it much is becuase we historically havent had anything to cheer for. It’s hard to really enjoy a sport when you favorite team is awful. Even modest success makes the game way more fun.
DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!
by davw83 on Aug 28, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
"The reason UK fans don't like it much is because we historically haven't had anything to cheer for."
I don’t know about that dav. UK fans have filled up Commonwealth even though some gawd awful teams have played there. UK football fans = Cub fans in many ways. We don’t love the sport any less because the team isn’t any good.
I do agree though with your statement that “even modest success makes the game way more fun.”
As far as Anything’s post — I quit giving a damn what others (outsiders) think about UK football a loooong time ago. One gets respect by winning. Period.
by Ken Howlett on Aug 28, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Prove you wrong......
I really think (hope) this years team will prove you wrong!! GO CATS!!!!
by UKfanNKY on Aug 28, 2009 3:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
TeamSpeedKills usually
does pretty well but really missed on this one. Yeah, the EKU is obvious but losing to everyone in the SEC but MSU? Not.
ABC brought up Brooks confidence related to physical and mental improvements but there is also the increase in the overall team speed. That speed will help overcome some of the inevitable defensive lapses due to inexperience and will make a difference, particularly early in the year.
Everyone in the SEC has gotten better, I just feel (hope?) we’re improving by 3 steps while others are improving by 1 or 2 steps.
by hoboat33 on Aug 28, 2009 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
your last sentence nailed it for me
living in the middle of sec country, i am hearing about how everyone will be better. i believe that uk will be better but being better may not be good enough.
i believe the difference between 5-7 and 7-5 is a coin toss – we have gotten some good breaks in some of our wins – we just need to keep getting them…
finally, i would almost feel better if Brooks was questioning his team. to me – if he were questioning them – that says he thinks they are confident enough to use his words as inspiration. his comments on the team are almost like he is trying to get the team to believe that they are better than they believe they are – given our early schedule, we need to have a confident team from the get go…
hope i am proven wrong…
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Aug 28, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We have 2 things very different this year
Hartline has improved tremendously and so has the receiving corps. Just wait.
by kykat51 on Aug 28, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That will make a world of difference
Last year’s passing problems just fed on themselves:
Hartline’s perfect pass dropped by receiver, dropped pass discourages Hartline, discouraged Hartline throws bad pass, receiver runs bad route – ultimately, Hartline calls out offensive players for making ridiculous mistakes (he was right, by the way; it just should have been handled better), receivers resent being called out, and on and on and on…….
Ultimately, I feel Hartline and the receivers learned a lot from how things transpired and increased competition along with experience on both ends of the passing game will lead to a greatly improved passing game. This alone will move the offense light years beyond the struggles of last year with benefits to the rushing game, time of possession, less pressure on the defense – basicly, a whole new look. Can’t wait.
by hoboat33 on Aug 28, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agree with both of you
i always felt like hartline was not as bad as everyone was saying – to me the dropped passes were not his fault.
he did look better in the liberty bowl which i saw live – if he continued to progress over the summer (or if the receivers continued to progress over the summer) then he will be ok.
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Aug 31, 2009 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Typo...
Yeah, the EKU loss was a typo, and it’s fixed now.
Look, I’d be all for y’all proving me wrong, but of those SEC teams I have you losing to, you didn’t beat a single one last season. I think all of those same teams (except Georgia) will be better than they were last season, but I’m not convinced that Kentucky will be. I know you didn’t play Auburn in ’08, but I think they will be better than Arkansas (who you beat by a single point) was last season.
As I said though, I’m glad to be proven wrong by a team being better than I think it will be. I just don’t see it now, but that’s why they play the games.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
by Year2 on Aug 28, 2009 5:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough.
I’ve given up about complaining about prognosticators putting UK with a losing record. It’s easy to make the case that it would happen, even though we have managed to have winning records the last three years.
The best way for us to quit winding up in the basement in pre-season assessments is to win. UK had a lousy year in the SEC last year, and got to a bowl game primarily on the strength of a weak OOC schedule. The OOC schedule is marginally stronger this year, and it is pretty much in line with the OOC schedules of most of the SEC, or at least the bottom 50%.
So when you complain about Kentucky’s OOC schedule, you should also be complaining about Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss, because there is very little substantive difference in their respective out of conference schedules by any objective measurement.
For UK to get respect, they have to beat people in the SEC. That’s what it takes. And quite honestly, I think that’s fair.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Aug 29, 2009 7:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Truz
Truz, how many of those teams mentioned above, with maybe the exception being Arkansas, MUST win their OOC games to get to bowl eligibility?
by ParisGuy on Aug 29, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
Alabama needed their OOC wins to even make a bowl at 6-6 in their first year under Saban in 2007.
Ole Miss was 3-1 in their OOC that same year… and was 3-9 on the season.
Tennessee was 2-2 in their OOC last year and 5-7 overall. If their OOC had gone better, they would have been bowling last year.
I would say that for a good number of SEC schools, having a strong OOC record is important to making a bowl game.
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
by chirop1 on Aug 29, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmph... even LSU
LSU was 3-5 in the SEC last year. So they needed every bit of their OOC wins to go to a bowl.
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
by chirop1 on Aug 29, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only teams over .500 in conference play last year were...
Were Florida (8-1), Alabama (8-1), Georgia (6-2), and Ole Miss (5-3).
Every other team in the league needed multiple OOC wins to make a bowl.
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
by chirop1 on Aug 29, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably only Tennessee this year.
But I’m not sure why that is really relevant, and I’m not sure Kentucky is in the group that “must win their OOC games.” UK could drop an OOC game and still easily get to bowl eligibility.
Yes, it will require them to win another SEC game, but the whole idea is that if UK continues to win one or two SEC games per year, how much progress have we really made? I believe we are poised to win four SEC games this season. That’s not great, but that is a major improvement from two. Will UK contend for the East? No way, but this team looks good enough to pull an upset or two, and possibly beat teams like Auburn and Tennessee who are in the middle of a coaching change. Coaching changes do matter, and very few times do you see a team get a new coach and win all the games they are supposed to win.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Aug 30, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
EASILY?
If they lose to any of the weak four, what game is easy on the Cats schedule? Vandy returns most of their starters and the game will be at Nashille. South Carolina, and Steve Spurrier at Columbia. Auburn at Auburn. You must be thinking of Tennessee at home. Good old Miss State is there for number five win.
Kentucky is not a team that can take anyone for granted. Well, maybe Eastern. The problem is Barnhart can’t schedule enough non conference games to get us to a winning record. We should be better. But not good enough to think we are going to get a week off from winning against anyone.
Terry Bowden took over at Auburn and won 11. Nutt did pretty good at Mississippi last year to come out a winner. I imagine Tuberville left some pretty good players at Auburn. So did Fulmer at Tennessee.
Easy isn’t in the vocabulary for the Cats.
by ParisGuy on Aug 30, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well ...
… I didn’t say it would be “easy,” what I intended to say was that you can easily see where they could make that up. No SEC game is ever easy for a team like Kentucky who struggles to achieve even three conference wins, but it isn’t hard to see where additional wins could come from. Auburn for one (new coach, new system, athletes not really much better than UK), Tennessee for two (new coach, new system) and South Carolina for three (younger team). Alabama is also not an impossible upset, especially since the Tide are coming in to Lexington. Vanderbilt is a must win, as it always is, and so is MSU. Vanderbilt may be returning many starters, but UK has far superior athletes this year that are no longer freshmen like they were last year.
Regarding your comments about Auburn, Bowden took over a team that was bristling with talent, but was just young. Nutt lucked into a quarterback transfer from Texas that saved his bacon last year. Auburn has no such impact player coming in at a skill position, their offensive line starts only one senior, and their OL backups are all returning or true freshmen. Beating them down on the Plains will not be easy, that’s for sure, but it certainly is doable. Beating any team on the road in the SEC is asking a lot, but if we are going to be successful in the league this year, that’s what it will require. Georgia is also a game that UK could theoretically win, but their home court advantage is especially strong.
So I’ll agree that nothing is easy, but that’s not my point. My point is that there are several spots in the SEC schedule where the Wildcats look at least competitive, and if the offense is significantly better than last year, it isn’t hard to see them winning any or even all of them.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Aug 30, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
I agree we should have a better team. If we aren’t a better one then we need to get in the OVC.
If Alabama is winnable so are the others. 12 and 0 is possible.
If everything falls right we coiuld be playing for the national championship.
I also think.the Easter Bunny missed getting my forwarding address when we moved from Cynthiana when I was two.
Right now we’d better settle fo.r six wins and balmy Nashville
by ParisGuy on Aug 30, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Redskins vs Pats tonite on TV
watch for Jeremy Jarmon to hopefully get in (second half). He’s #76 at defensive end.
GO JAR!!
by hoboat33 on Aug 28, 2009 8:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Another 6 or 7 Win Season
I have said before that I am not a big college football fan which is probably because of living all my life in Kentucky where college football always took the backseat to basketball for most. I do keep up with the sport and with UK and I really admire those Cat football fans who really believe this team will compete in the SEC. I listen to the sports talk shows and read comments on here that say this team will win 9 or 10 games and even though I don’t follow the sport as closely as those folks I can say with much confidence that this team will not make 9 wins or even 8. The program as a whole has a long,long,long way to go to be able to compete with the likes of Florida,Georgia,Alabama,LSU,Auburn and yes,Tennessee. And it won’t happen under Rich Brooks or Joker Phillips either. I admire what Brooks has done but he has taken the program as far as he can. Sorry to all the Brooks and Cat fans out there but that’s just my opinion.
by maysvilleblue on Aug 29, 2009 11:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think we'll do better.
Seven or eight in the regular season. Don’t mind the Big Blue glasses, everything looks better in blue. :-)
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Aug 30, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
now 5!
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Aug 31, 2009 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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