How do the Wildcats stack up to the rest of the SEC East?
by Anything but Gatorade on Jul 24, 2009 12:16 PM EDT
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Funny, I thought the SEC East looked just like Tim Tebow.
By this point, all of the pre-season fanboy mags are out, be it Athlon, Sporting News, Lindy's, or the sainted screed of Phil Steele. Any chance his name is kind of close to Philistine? I think not. In any event, if you look at how the national and regional pundits have ranked the SEC you'll find Kentucky in its usual spot: dead last or second to dead last.
As Ken pointed out earlier, there are a lot of reasons why no one gives the Cats a chance to climb their way up the ladder and reach for the stars, etc. Kentucky has an exceedingly difficult time beating SEC competition. You know those streaks everyone likes to talk about? The ones that make you want to drive your Rich Brooks edition Ford F-150 into the nearest telephone pole? They're all against teams in our own division: Tennessee, Florida, and South Carolina. The Cats have only beaten UGA once in the last fifteen tries. Our record against Vanderbilt since 1990 is only 11-8. And here's where the news gets even worse: everyone is getting better.
Yes, Rich Brooks and I both believe that this year's offensive unit will outperform last year's (how can it not?). We know that the secondary is very good. But let's look at this year's eastern division, briefly, and see how we stack up.
SEC East:
- Florida: Returns with The Anointed One, Tim Tebow, who was statistically and ecclisiastically the best quarterback in the league last year. The #1 scoring offense in the league in 2008 loses Percy Harvin but still has Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey, Aaron Hernandez and probably Riley Cooper for the most prolific offensive attack since the Wehrmacht took Poland. They gained an AVERAGE of 455 yards/game last year. Jeebus. Defensively, the Gators bring back almost all of their starters from last year's league leading scoring defense. There's a reason everyone thinks they'll take their second consecutive crystal football this year.
- Georgia: Just because they didn't live up to expectations last year doesn't mean they were bad; they still got second in the East. Joe Cox is a fifth year senior, A.J. Green is probably the best wide receiver in the division, and the Bulldog line is always going to make opportunities for the next UGA running back to put up big numbers. Defensively, the Dawgs weren't spectacular last year, ranking 6th in total defense.
- Kentucky: The defense, which got a lot of press early last year, got banged up a bit and sort of underwhelmed as the season dragged on. The secondary will still be very good. The line, specifically at end, on the other hand, scares the pee out of me. Collins Ukwu and Chandler Burden absolutely have to produce or the Cats will have no chance this year. Offensively, the questions are well chronicled: is Hartline going to be better? Can the receivers catch the ball? Was Moncell Allen just born without any cervical vertebra? Good news is that the best offensive line in the SEC is coming back and only lost Garry Williams to graduation.
- South Carolina: The most quizzical team in the division. Is Stephen Garcia a good quarterback? He's elusive, but that Gamecock offensive line was terrible last year. The defense figures to be pretty good this year despite finally graduating Jasper Brinkley and Captain Munnerlyn, but they were middle of the pack in the league last year and do have their holes, as Vanderbilt found out early and often.
- Tennessee: The Vols were a bad team last year. But guess what: they led the league in total defense. Eric Berry is a worthy Heisman candidate, no doubt, and running the ball on this team is always difficult (although the Pac 10 sure has figured it out, haven't they?) Lane Kiffin's been trying to prop up the disaster that is Jonathan Crompton this offseason. We'll see if it works as well as his strategy to recruit a QB for 2010 (read: not well). Also, for the first time in a while, there isn't a star running back lining up in the I for UT this year.
- Vanderbilt: Returns 11 starters on what was a solid defense last year. Bobby Johnson hasn't yet named a starting quarterback, but my money's on Larry Smith, who is more mobile than people think and has a very strong arm. The Commodores' offensive line is what killed them last year, but all five guys are coming back and there has been more muscle and weight added to each player.
Can the Cats honestly expect to beat any of these teams? I don't think so. Compete with just about everyone but Florida, yes, but the Cats do not really have a talent advantage over anyone except maybe Vanderbilt. If you look at the matchups using 2008 statistics for total offense and total defense (which don't really accurately project what will happen in 2009, of course),and the Cats are actually middle of the pack offensively and dead damn last defensively.
No, they don't play games based on numbers, and I'm no slave to statistics. The point is this: Kentucky has a better football team and program than it did five years ago. So does everyone else (except Tennessee). The Cats are getting better talent and better production through each year under Rich Brooks. But there has to be even more improvement if the Cats want to make inroads in the SEC. The 2008 season was an aberration offensively, I hope. The defense, billed in 2008 as the best Kentucky has ever fielded, cannot keep giving up 300 plus yards per game and expect to come out on top. Those problems are not fixed with scheme, they're fixed with talented players. Get those more talented players, and the wins will come, as will the TOTAL SWITCHEROO WITH SPURRIER'S GAMECOCKS IN THE SEC EAST STANDINGS! WOO!! WOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
Sorry, blacked out there for a minute. Go Cats.
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Have to put us at best as a 3rd place East team
and probably 4-5 range, only time will tell….we have good position players, but as other posts have brought out…..1 factor determines our season…..and his name is Hartline.
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
If we don't beat USC this year I'm going to be depressed
If peeing your pants is cool, consider me Miles Davis.
U and me both
They have it coming to them. Im used ot losing to UT and UF but there is no reason on earth we should have the streak against USC that we do.
DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!
I think there's a good shot at beating
Vanderbilt, South Carolina (both road games unfortunately) and a relatively weak Tennessee (at UK). Losses to Florida and Georiga are pretty likely, but that still puts as at 3-2 in the SEC E. Toss in picking up hopefully at least one game against Auburn, ‘Bama, or Mississippi State (two of which are home games), and 4-4 in the SEC is possible. Win all OOC games, and is there’s 8-4.
Am I being utterly unrealistic?
Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth.
--O.W.
No
Not according to our leader, Papa Brooks. I am sure he saw the possibilities of the team in the Spring Blue-White Scrimmage game. Look out for Chris Matthews WR. He was great in that game.
UK Football will always be near the bottom of the SEC....
I don’t see that changing this season. From time to time they will upset one of the top teams but for as much “progress” as the program has made UK is still looking up at almost everyone in the East. Every year folks say we will beat USC and we never do.
I just do not see UK having enough consistent offense to compete every week in the SEC. The defense will take a step back this season. Thank goodness UK’s OOC schedule is weak.
6-6 and fans will celebrate another minor bowl which is better than no bowl.
Slower Traffic Keep Right!
hope you are wrong
afraid you are correct…..
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Jul 24, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
I would just like to see UK beat TN again. This year we should have a chance, if half our team isn’t hurt by then. A win against S.Carolina would be sweet also…
"You are what you are and you ain't what you ain't"
anyone know how Locke is doing ??
is he 100% yet ??
Locke ...
… is not 100% yet. But he is getting close.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
Nice work T or ABG or what ever
Informative as always, you all should check out his blog as well, but you do have to put up with the Vandy content over there (per the wifey).
Informative and entertaining...
A great read. A few of your one liners had me spitting my coffee onto my laptop. Heh, need a new one anyway. Keep up the good work ABG.
I'm big, I'm all blue, and I am Stu.
Keys
The Cats were not “dead-last” defensively in the SEC last year. They were eighth in scoring defense and eleventh in total defense. And as has been noted elsewhere, the cats’ defense sort of faded after Micah Johnson’s high ankle sprain after being very good against Bama in September. Otherwise, the OP’s assessment seems comprehensive.
I’m not sure I agree with all of the OP’s conclusions, but it’s never easy to know in July what will happen in November. Too many variables….injuries, development of young players, off-field developments, and so forth.
With that said, I specifically disagree with this statement:
“Can the Cats honestly expect to beat any of these teams? I don’t think so.”
The simple fact is that every D-1 team loses players to graduation and attrition. Every team faces issues in August, and must solve them in September and October. Every team must deal with the unanticipated impact of injuries. Every team has better depth at some positions than others.
The SEC is a tough, dynamic football conference. Competition is very keen and some programs are stepping up to this challenge. UK is one of those. OTOH, things don’t look so rosy at Auburn, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Intangibles are a huge part of competitiveness, and the intangibles are in Uk’s favor now in some of these SEC series. That doesn’t necessarily mean UK will stop those three losing streaks in 2009. But the streaks will be stopped some day, and Uk has a better shot this year than in the recent past.
I expect to beat Auburn and Tennessee in 2009. I also think UK has a heck of a shot to beat South Carolina this time. That’s just me. I have been around long enough to understand the history of all these series, but nothing lasts forever.
In reality, there are five big keys for the Cats:
1) The Cats must play on the road like a veteran team. I believe they will be in the Auburn and South Carolina games in the foutrth quarter, but they must be opportunistic when victory is in their grasp. This would represent a step forward from their performances in most 2008 SEC road games.
2) The Cats must run the football successfully this fall on first down. This, too, would be a step forward compared to 2008. I believe UK’s 2008 OL was poor as a run-blocking unit because C Jorge Gonzalez was in his first season as a starter and OGs Zipp Duncan and Jess Beets were underweight. They did a better job in the Liberty Bowl once Gonzalez had some experience, and once freshmen Stuart Hines and Jake Lanefski had some experience as Beets’ replacements. In 2009, the Cats’ RB rotation is much stronger and better than 2008. Alfonso Smith is up to around 220#, and Moncell Allen is in the best shape of his career. If Derrick Locke makes a comeback, and/or if Coshik Williams is as good as he looked in April, this will be a formidible RB rotation, especially if one of the true freshman contributes. But the biggest news in in the interior of the OL. Gonzalez has a year of experience now as a starter. OGs Hines and Christian Johnson are much bigger and stronger than UK’s 2008 OGs. If the Cats can run the football successfuly early in an offensive series, they won’t face third-and-long as often. In reality, this is the key to a more versatile offense and a more effective passing game.
3) The Cats’ defense must slow or stop opponents’ running games. In 2008, the Cats finished ninth in the SEC in defense against the run. Losing Myron Pryor , Ventrell Jenkins, and Jeremy Jarmon hurts. However, 2009 DTs Corey Peters and Ricky Lumpkin are very effective against the run, and MLB Micah Johnson is one of the SEC’s best run defenders. If those three play well, Uk’s defense against the run will improve this year. That would mean opposing offenses will face second-and-long and third-and-long more often. This is the key to covering UK’s potential defensive weakness at DE and stopping SEC offenses.
4) Special teams. Under Rich Brooks, Uk’s special teams have usually been a team strength. Despite Tim Masthay’s big season, that was not true last year. Statistically, UK’s special teams dropped from among the nation’s best to among the nation’s worst in many key parameters. That must change this fall, because field position and opportunistic scoring will make the difference in several of these games.
5) Injuries. Every team has them. If they occur at a deep position, they can be handled. This fall, UK cannot afford significant injuries to Micah, or on their OL or DL. The DL (especially Peters) is particularly important.
This 2009 Wildcat football team can go 5-7 or 10-2. Most observers are in the middle, predicting seven or eight wins. That sounds about right. Keep in mind that UK has not had a winning season in SEC play since 1977. I think that barrier could be overcome this year, but it depends on running the football successfully against SEC defenses and avoiding the key injuries I discussed.
Nice breakdown
Especially #2 – not enough has been said about the hole our offense found themselves after repeatedly muffing 1st down.
A completion on first down?
A concept of which, though pure in nature, when executed in paradisiacal manner portends ardent manifestations of success which may render said habitué a blubbering fool. Go for it!
Throwing on first down
Well, it will be nice if it is successful.
But the primary key is running the football successfully. All solid football teams can do it. If you can run successfully early in the series, opponents must bring their safeties near the box in run support, closer to the LOS. This is what opens up all the options for a versatile, successful offense, including play-action and deep slants into the safety zones of the secondary. In reality, a good passing game depends on a credible running game. Not nearly enough attention was focused on this fact last fall by UK fans.
UK has never had much luck getting a first down period
let alone knowing what to do once we get it lol.
Hence how excited the fans get when we get to say…
AND THATS GOOD FOR ANOTHER….FIRST DOWWWWWN KENTUCKYYYYYY
by BleedinUKBlue on Jul 28, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
7 or 8 wins
Those are UK-affiliated “observers,” and not any national prognosticators. The most wins I’ve seen any non-UK predictor is 5.
I try to be as positive as the next guy, but if they go 10-2 I’ll buy Messenger lunch every day for a week:)
Let's be clear....
I did not predict 10-2. I said 7-8 wins.
Miami (OH)….W
UL ….W
Bama…. likely L because Bama returns virtually its entire defensive unit
Florida….certain L
South Carolina….Cats haven’t won since 1999 but this year it could go either way
Auburn….Cats would clobber this team in Lexington; but it’s a toss-up at Jordan-Hare
Louisiana-Monroe….W
Mississippi State….probable W
EKU….W
Georgia….almost certain L
Vandy….In Nashville, this one is a toss-up
Tennessee….Edge to UK in talent and coaching; edge to Tennessee in tradition; so a toss-up
So if you buy my line of reasoning, there are five wins and three losses in this 2009 schedule. The other four games are toss-ups. A lot of UK fans are afraid and too timid to talk about the possibility of beating Tennessee and Auburn, but they shouldn’t be. As I said, it’s probably a seven- or eight-win season. But the Cats aren’t the only SEC East team facing questions. If key injuries don’t kill this team, and if a couple of factors break right for them, the Cats could do better than eight wins. We will see.
South Carolina
We have to win that one just so we can all sing, “Tonight we’re gonna party like its 1999!”
This has become my SEC goal. lol.
It is not worth an intelligent man’s time to be in the majority. By definition, there are already enough people to do that.
by kentuckygirl0724 on Jul 28, 2009 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Messenger
I didn’t say you thought we would win 10. But since you wrote they could go either 5-7 or 10-2 (which a kind of agree with), I will happily buy you lunch, well, actually several lunches:)
I did not mean to come off as being critical, that was not my intent.
As I say, I think you are probably right: The unknowns surrounding this team leaves me unsure about making any predictions. They could be really good, or only average.
National Prognosticators
While they arent’s UK homers they also don’t know our team nearly as well as we do. Does anyone in the national media honestly know much about UK football. I hardly ever pay attention to national predictions becuase of this.
DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!
I agree
I was responding to Messenger’s comment, “Most observers are in the middle, predicting seven or eight wins.”
I made the assumption that “Most observers” are reporters, and national prognosticators. But, generally, I think fans a bit optimistic, and the national media a bit pessimistic when it comes to a prediction on UK football.
A trend I would like to see come to an end :)
by Ken Howlett on Jul 27, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
The five keys
I would just remind you of the five keys I cited for this season. If most of these critical keys break the Cats’ way, it will be a surprisingly positive fall. But if they don’t, then it won’t be. With the possible exception of Florida, which has a huge athletic advantage over the rest of the SEC, every team is subject to analogous issues.
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