UK Fell Off A Cliff In 2008 And 2009

by FortyYearCatFan on Jun 13, 2009 12:26 PM EDT Comment 17 comments

Let's look back at KenPom www.kenpom.com ratings.

UK was 4th in 1999. 17th in 2000. 7th in 2001. 13th in 2002. 2nd in 2003. 8th in 2004. 11th in 2005. 20th in 2006. 14th in 2007.

Average about 10th. Not good enough. Coaching change.

UK was 55th in 2008. 52nd in 2009. Horrible. Another coaching change.

Memphis coach was hired. Here is how Memphis did (KenPom) under him.

38th in 2001. 35th in 2002. 23rd in 2003. 29th in 2004. 43rd in 2005. (UK better each of those 5 years)

9th in 2006. 9th in 2007. (Better than UK those 2 years)

2nd in 2008. 2nd in 2009. MUCH better than UK those 2 years.

Average about 21st (over those 9 years).

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I've always thought that

kenpom over weighs strength of schedule. SOS is important, especially if you win, but who cares if you play lots of good teams if you lose those games.

the REAL fake Mr. Bob Dobalina
Formerly known as "senowen"

by bluesquire on Jun 13, 2009 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Work That Way For Memphis

MU schedule in 2006-07-08-09 was weak because C-USA got even weaker with departure of its best teams to Big East.

Memphis won lots more games over easier opponents but still earned 9th (twice) and 2nd (twice) in KenPom.

by FortyYearCatFan on Jun 13, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m talking about teams that lose lots of games but still end up highly ranked on kenpom because of SOS. For instance, kenpom has Georgetown ranked at 27 for 2009. However, I just don’t see how that is justified when they lost to nearly every decent team they played. Yes they beat a few good teams, including Memphis, but they are only at 27 because of the weight given to SOS without regard to whether they won the games. Honestly, Memphis was over rated as well. They got a bump for having a decent (38) non-conf SOS without regard to the fact that they lost to the only three decent teams they faced (Xavier, GT and Syracuse).

the REAL fake Mr. Bob Dobalina
Formerly known as "senowen"

by bluesquire on Jun 13, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Didn't

KenPem measures team quality differently than mere W and L.

by FortyYearCatFan on Jun 13, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

???

Of course he does. But that doesn’t negative my point since I was talking about how I think too much weight is given to SOS. And its not just kenpom who does it, the NCAA does it as well, just not as much.

the REAL fake Mr. Bob Dobalina
Formerly known as "senowen"

by bluesquire on Jun 13, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Think KenPom Is Very Reliable And Accurate

The UK teams in 2007 (or 2002) were pretty similar in capability to the 2004 or 2005 teams (despite vastly different W-L records).

Hence their similar KenPom ratings.

by FortyYearCatFan on Jun 13, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You keep avoiding Squire's point.

He’s talking about weight on SOS.

by mrmondaynite on Jun 13, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if they were that much overated

how did they make it to the final game……to me, that says it all

by Bluehound on Jun 13, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2009

Memphis didn’t make it to the final game in 2009. They made it to the Sweet 16 and lost to Missouri, who lost to UConn, who lost to Mich St. who lost to UNC. That sounds about right to me.

the REAL fake Mr. Bob Dobalina
Formerly known as "senowen"

by bluesquire on Jun 13, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It doesnt matter who measures it

we fell off of a cliff….period….no better way to describe it…..Forty gets this one right…..dead on as a matter of fact

Remember, we're having fun now!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Jun 13, 2009 11:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

There is no question that UK did much worse in 2008 and 2009

But I think using kenpom’s rankings as the measuring stick is deceptive, because I think kenpom’s rankings are inaccurate. They over weigh SOS. That’s my point.

UK was not the 20th best team in the nation during the 2005-2006 season and was absolutely not the 14th best team during the 2006-2009 season. UK certainly was much worse in 2008 and 2009 than any point in the last 20 years, but the fall was not as much as kenpom’s rankings would make it out to be.

the REAL fake Mr. Bob Dobalina
Formerly known as "senowen"

by bluesquire on Jun 13, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Think 14th And 20th Are Reasonable Accurate

The 2006 team played basket-4-basket with #1 seed UConn in NCAA tourney.

The 2007 team was stronger than its 22-12 record might indicate.

by FortyYearCatFan on Jun 14, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The fall was bad enough to cause widespread panic among

not just fanatics, but everyday casual fans as well….it was bad…..as I said before, it doesnt matter who charts it….I will give you +/- 5 places on every one of those years, and there is still no comparison. I use emotion and fandom to combat Forty every chance I get, but this is a no-brainer….we sucked….period….

Remember, we're having fun now!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Jun 14, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2008 and 09 = 0-1 in NCAA tourney, UK’s record 17th straight NCAA apearance BUT UK’s first NIt appearance in 30 years and UK’s first miss of NCAA tourney (when eligible) in 20 years.

44-25 in 06 and 07. 40-27 in 08 and 09.

Both bad but 08 and 09 were worse.

by FortyYearCatFan on Jun 15, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs