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Derby - Who ya got?

Ok, people, not to tear everyone away from the minute-by-minute excitement that is John Wall's recruitment (insert sarcasm tag here), but there is a fairly important horse race happening tomorrow.  So, predictions must be made. 

Add your trifecta to the comments - winner gets. . . well, absolutely nothing, unless you went down to your friendly neighborhood OTB to place a wager.  But you do get unofficial ASoB horse-picking bragging rights.  So you've got that going for you, which is nice.

For review, the field is as follows:


Post Horse Trainer Jockey Odds
1 West Side Bernie Kelly Breen Stewart Elliott 30-1
2 Musket Man Derek Ryan Eibar Coa 20-1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty John Velazquez 30-1
4 Advice Todd Pletcher Rene Douglas 30-1
5 Hold Me Back Bill Mott Kent Desormeaux 15-1
6 Friesan Fire Larry Jones Gabriel Saez 5-1
7 Papa Clem Gary Stute Rafael Bejarano 20-1
8 Mine That Bird Bennie Woolley Calvin Borel 50-1
9 Join in the Dance Todd Pletcher Chris DeCarlo 50-1
10 Regal Ransom Saeed bin Suroor Alan Garcia 30-1
11 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer Mike Smith 20-1
12 General Quarters Tom McCarthy Julien Leparoux 20-1
13 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins Joe Talamo 3-1
14 Atomic Rain Kelly Breen Joe Bravo 50-1
15 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher Edgar Prado 4-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert Garrett Gomez 4-1
17 Summer Bird Tim Ice Chris Rosier 50-1
18 Nowhere to Hide Nick Zito Shaun Bridgmohan 50-1
19 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor Ramon Dominguez 15-1
20 Flying Private D. Wayne Lukas Robby Albarado 50-1

My picks:

1 - I Want Revenge (13)

2 - Regal Ransom (10)

3 - Friesan Fire (6)

WHO YA GOT?

Comment 36 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Fun!

I don’t really follow recruiting all that closely anyway, and I’m not one of those who is hanging on John Wall’s every move, so naturally I think this is a super cute idea. : )

Even though I am historically absolutely horrible at picking the Derby winner (s) — what the hell, my picks are:

1 – Friesen Fire (6)

2 – Pioneerof the Nile (16)

3 – I Want Revenge (13)

by BigSkyCat on May 1, 2009 9:45 AM EDT reply actions  

Derby Picks.

As Pat Forde, my favorite sports columnist, writes the definite fan favorite is General Quarters. He is owned and trained by a retired biology teacher, Tom McCarthy, from Seneca High School in Louisville. McCarthy bought the horse for a paltry $20,000 and has raced it to great success including a Bluegrass Stakes win at Keeneland. Just a cool story.

I too like Firesen Fire, but that, like all my derby picks, damns him to run terribly in the Derby. We’ll just say that pick is subject to change.

by Thomas Hunt Morgan on May 1, 2009 9:57 AM EDT reply actions  

My picks

1. Hold Me Back
2. Dunkirk
3. Friesan Fire

Envy our past......Fear our future

by btcoop71 on May 1, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Denim got-

1. Papa Clem (7)
2. Friesan Fire (6)
3. I Want Revenge (13)

Papa Clem will steal Derby 135. I am confident is saying so because a) this is an anonymous forum and b) I am familiar with his connections and only hope the best for them.

I’ve been staring at my blank “post a comment” box for ten minutes trying to come up with some insightful information as to how or why Papa Clem will win- alas, I have nothing. But I’ll give you this- Bo Hirsch (owner) used to run a small restaurant famous for his chili and made his horse money by selling the recipe to Hormel Foods. And at 61F and raining- it might be a good day for some chili. (Now there’s a human interest story you won’t get watching the “Yum Brands Derby”.)

Speaking of the rain- I’ll take Friesan Fire second. His performance in the mud at the Louisiana Derby last month was impressive- and I appreciate his trainer (Larry Jones) sporting a giant cowboy hat in his Derby profile picture.

I Want Revenge was great in the Wood even though he overslept and missed the start of the race. I can see why he is a great choice- so I’ll finish my trifecta with him.

I’ll be on here to collect my ASoB bragging rights tomorrow.

by DenimUni on May 1, 2009 12:24 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm picking the glue factory

to win place and show

FO SHO!!!!

I FOUND JESUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He was in my trunk when I got back from Tijuana.

by bluecrip on May 1, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions  

so by Glue Factory did you mean Mine that Bird?

If so, major major congratulations!

I need a Sea of Blue because I am surrounded by Tennessee orange!

by sleepytimetea on May 4, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jeez louise!

how I wish I could have picked that one!!! you guys might not have heard from me in a few weeks if I had made that pick!!! ha ha ha ha!!!

I want to die while asleep like my grandfather,
not screaming in terror like the passengers in his car.

by bluecrip on May 5, 2009 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Friesan Fire

I mentioned this in another thread a few days ago. I like how this horse is peaking at the right time. FF had a great workout earlier in the week. The Derby could also end up being a sloppy track as the weather is not looking so good. FF had a great ride in the slop winning the Louisiana Derby in its last trip out. And just maybe this will be Larry Jones’ year after having 2nd pace finishes in the last 2 Derbies.

I hope this horse goes from 5-1 up to around 7-1 come post time. $50 WPS with those odds isn’t a bad day.

Slower Traffic Keep Right!

by SevenRings on May 1, 2009 12:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Friesan Fire...

drew him at work in the Derby pot, no betting for me this year so that’ll be the only horse of interest for me.

The Spork, I'm two things in one.

by the spork on May 1, 2009 1:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Don't know yet.

Won’t know until tomorrow.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Glenn Logan on May 1, 2009 2:38 PM EDT reply actions  

My guess

Dunkirk
Chocolate Candy
Papa Clem

I FOUND JESUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He was in my trunk when I got back from Tijuana.

by bluecrip on May 1, 2009 2:56 PM EDT reply actions  

Here are mine...

Friesan Fire
Mr. Hot Stuff
Dunkirk

although I would like to add General Quarters for the story of his owner/trainer alone—yes, a tv station in Nashville, TN, aired a story about Mr. McCarthy! So that would be my sentimental pick after seeing that story.

by ukkrazyintn on May 1, 2009 3:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Odds moving...

Pioneer of the Nile and Dunkirk are up to 8-1 as I post this.

I like both horses and at those odss it is certainly worthy of a play. I try to find value rather that picking a favorite.

Slower Traffic Keep Right!

by SevenRings on May 1, 2009 3:27 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm with you

 find that mid odds horse, bet heavy to place and simple low dollar perfecta or tri boxes with the favorites.

by hoboat33 on May 1, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

BTW

bet early, throw away the program, party hard then check the results when you wake up sunday afternoon.

by hoboat33 on May 1, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

i did notice general quarters' odds a bit better/lower than i expected

looks like he is the sentimental favorite….

only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team

by memphis wildcat on May 2, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pioneerof the Nile
Friesan Fire
Atomic Rain (soooolllllllid name)

by mrmondaynite on May 1, 2009 5:24 PM EDT reply actions  

I guess if you had IWR on your lineup

you have until the race to post your changes.

Do they have an alternate horse that runs if one drops out or do they just lessen the field by one?

I want to die while asleep like my grandfather,
not screaming in terror like the passengers in his car.

by bluecrip on May 2, 2009 12:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Just...

one less horse running, never been any stand ins to my knowledge.

The Spork, I'm two things in one.

by the spork on May 2, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

tag-team horseracing? lol

Blue, there is no other color to Bleed !!!

by a2d2 on May 2, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

My picks

1) Dunkirk – Gotta go with the grey horse like Mom always did
2) Fresian Fire
3) Chocolate Candy

by kykat51 on May 2, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Due to the scratch

I will revise my picks as follows:

1 – Pioneerof the Nile (16)
2 – Regal Ransom (10)
3 – Friesan Fire (6)

I guess. . .

The King is dead! Long live the King!

by NYCCats on May 2, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Exacta play...

1-Dunkirk
2-Papa Clem

But if I could pick who I want to win, I’m rooting for General Quarters… Gotta’ love that story…

Steelers fan 1st! UK is my 2nd love.

by vinceuk1 on May 2, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions  

i am going with the sentimental favorite

1 – General Quarters (here’s to him being a mudder…)
2 – Friesan Fire
3 – I Want Revenge

only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team

by memphis wildcat on May 2, 2009 5:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Was not paying attention -- enjoying the day off....

“scratch” i want revenge and make it Dunkirk for the show

only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team

by memphis wildcat on May 2, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

memphis

I Want Revenge was scratched this morning.

by kykat51 on May 2, 2009 5:47 PM EDT reply actions  

thanks

just turned on the tv a few minutes ago – this was the first weekend none of my 3 kids had to be anywhere and i was enjoying the peace and quiet of nothing to do…….

only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team

by memphis wildcat on May 2, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

OMG

What a Derby with a 50-1 odds winning! My first time seeing this happen, and I don’t know I have seen a more exhilarated winning jockey than Borel. Wow what a great Derby for him with the Oaks and this.

by kykat51 on May 2, 2009 7:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Wasn't...

Giacomo 50-1 odds?

The Spork, I'm two things in one.

by the spork on May 2, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Incredible move by Borel. (and not a bad two days for him, too)

by hoboat33 on May 3, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

But I don't think I saw that race

I think I was out of state at the time and did not clue into the Derby. For shame :-)

by kykat51 on May 2, 2009 9:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Um, yeah. . .

. . . can’t say I had that one.

Honestly, you look at that horse in the form, and he looks like a mule. But that move from last to the lead was flat out phenomenal.

The King is dead! Long live the King!

by NYCCats on May 3, 2009 12:19 AM EDT reply actions  

my daughter did

always takes a chance on at least one long shot….lol….so she bought dinner for us all…thanks hun :-)

Blue, there is no other color to Bleed !!!

by a2d2 on May 3, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Two derby wins for Calvin Bo-rail...

…gotta’ like that guy… he’s so humble…

Steelers fan 1st! UK is my 2nd love.

by vinceuk1 on May 3, 2009 11:57 AM EDT reply actions  

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