Breaking down last season by shot selection: Part 2
This is part 2 of my breakdown of UK's shot selection last season. In part 1 I looked at the team as a whole as well as their opponents to see how each group performed at making various types of shots and concentrating specifically on different kinds of two point field goals. In part I'm going to look at the three primary options on offense from last season - Meeks, Patterson, and Stevenson - and break down their shot selection in the same manner I did for the team.
Together Jodie, Patrick, and Perry accounted for 65.3% of the scoring last year (1742 of 2669 points) and took 60.1% of UK's field goal attempts (1164 of 1938). The trio attempted 63.4% (865 of 1365) of UK's 2 pt FGA. A large part of this came from Meeks and Patterson of course, but Stevenson did finish third on the team in shots attempted and field goals made by a pretty wide margin (Darius Miller was fourth, but well behind Perry).
Below is a shot summary for each player using the same categories and format for Part 1 with the exception of tip-ins which I combined with layups (there were not very many for any player). The data was compiled from the same sources as in Part 1.
| Shot Type | Meeks | Patterson | Stevenson |
|---|---|---|---|
| Made 3 Point Shot | 117 | 0 | 3 |
| Missed 3 Point Shot | 171 | 1 | 7 |
| Made Dunk | 20 | 54 | 53 |
| Missed Dunk | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Made Layup | 80 | 118 | 22 |
| Missed Layup | 42 | 44 | 23 |
| Made 2 pt Jumper | 42 | 66 | 29 |
| Missed 2 pt Jumper | 83 | 109 | 60 |
| Made Free Throw | 211 | 129 | 62 |
| Missed Free Throw | 23 | 39 | 29 |
Despite my best attempt at accuracy, there are a few discrepancies. At some point (or various points) I missed 11 of Jodie's shots and 4 of Patterson's. Stevenson is correct though and I'm not going to sweat the ones I missed since we're only talking about 1% of each players' total attempts.
A couple of things to note:
- Despite taking twice as many shots, Patterson only had 1 more dunk than Stevenson.
- Patterson took more shots around the basket, but Jodie got to the free throw line 100 more times.
- Patrick needs to change some of those layups into dunks.
Here are the shooting percentages for each player on each kind of shot. I ended Part 1 by asking who everyone thought was the best 2 pt jump shooter among these three players. Here's the answer.
| Shot Type | Meeks | Patterson | Stevenson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Point Shot | 40.6 | 0.0 | 30.0 |
| Dunk | 90.9 | 96.4 | 98.1 |
| Layup | 65.6 | 72.8 | 48.9 |
| 2 Point Jump Shot | 33.6 | 37.7 | 32.6 |
| Free Throw | 90.2 | 76.8 | 68.1 |
And the winner is: Patrick Patterson! Most people guessed this correctly and Patterson was not only the best of the three, but was above average at shooting the jumper within the arc.
- The shocking thing here, at least for me, is how poor Jodie was on his non-three point jump shots. There is a full 7 point difference in his percentages from behind the arc and in front of it - it astonishes me that someone who is such a good shooter would do so poorly on these shots. If there is one element that Jodie really needs to work on it's his midrange game.
- If Jodie had made his two point jump shots at the same rate as he made his three point jump shots, he would have scored an additional 17 points.
- As for Perry, his non-dunk percentages don't look so good, but consider that if he had hit just 2 more jump shots he would have been basically average.
- Perry needs to work on finishing around the rim when he can't get a dunk. He didn't attempt many layups which is good, but someone with his length should be able to finish closer to 60% on those shots.
- As I mentioned above, Patterson needs to redistribute his shot selection to get more dunks and fewer layups. He's good at converting both, but 96.4% >> 72.8%. Consider that if Patrick had taken 25% of his layups and tried to dunk them instead, he would have scored about 20 more points during the season.
- If Patterson's shot distribution around the rim was more like Perry's (54.5% dunk attempts, 45.5% layup attempts) he would have scored an additional 29 points, raising his per game average by almost a full point.
There you go. I hope you found this as interesting as I did. I still have a lot of quetions about how the average D1 player performs this way, but I think it's going to be a while before someone makes that kind of information publicly available. It would certainly make analyzing player performance more sophisticated and thus more accurate.
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32 comments
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Comments
It...
was Patterson. I told you it was a trick question, you tricked me into thinking it was a trick question. Touche.
by the spork on Apr 8, 2009 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It would be interesting to see whether Pat would get as many foul shots as Tyler Hansbrough gets
if he were to take JL’s advice and convert more of his layup attempts into dunk attempts.
by Ken Pomeroy on Apr 8, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely...
something that angered me at times. To see a man with his size and strength constantly trying to lay it in is frustrating.
by the spork on Apr 8, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This was another reason I wanted to do this
I remember different people throughout the season remarking that Patterson needed to dunk more shots instead of laying them off the glass. I was curious what the actual disparity was.
I like important stuff just as much as the next guy, but please, for a little while, deliver us from meaning, baseball. That's your greatest glory, and we thank you for it very, very much. -- Craig Calcaterra
by JLeverenz on Apr 8, 2009 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hansbrough Vs Patterson
Hansbrough made 249 of 296 FT’s; Patterson 129 of 168; and Hansbrough played fewer total minutes and fewer minutes per game. Why the disparity?
And please answers other than Hansbrough played for UNC, was protected by officials, and others based on prejudicial matters.
1) More touches
2) Style of play
3)……
by Wild Weasel on Apr 8, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pace definitely a factor
UNC played at the 8th fastest adjust pace this year at 73.8 possessions per game while UK played the 131st fastest at 67.2. Over the course of 36+ games, that adds up. Touches were also a factor as Hansbrough used 26.7% of his team’s possessions when he was in the game while Patterson uses 22.8%.
I like important stuff just as much as the next guy, but please, for a little while, deliver us from meaning, baseball. That's your greatest glory, and we thank you for it very, very much. -- Craig Calcaterra
by JLeverenz on Apr 8, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting stuff.
…it astonishes me that someone who is such a good shooter would do so poorly on these shots. If there is one element that Jodie really needs to work on it’s his midrange game.
Admittedly, my opinion is anecdotal, but I think it speaks to Jodie’s ‘problem’ with driving and finishing around the rim. I see this as one of his biggest weaknesses in his game and how it would translate to the NBA. I don’t know why, he isn’t weak by any means. It could speak to his difficulty in handling the ball as he drives, too.
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Apr 8, 2009 5:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
See the point about drawing fouls below.
by Ken Pomeroy on Apr 8, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Finishing around the rim
This is where I really wish I had some hard data for the rest of D1, or at least for a lot of other teams. I don’t know what the D1 average is for layups, but I would bet it is somewhere around 55-60% or so in which case – by the numbers – it would seem Jodie is average-to-maybe-above-average at layups.
Which is not to say your observation is wrong, but rather you could just be remembering the times when Meeks didn’t finish and not the times he did. That is pretty common for everybody and it’s one of the reasons I wanted to break this stuff down. I was particularly interested in how Patterson and Stevenson did away from the rim because I wanted to check against my own observations.
I like important stuff just as much as the next guy, but please, for a little while, deliver us from meaning, baseball. That's your greatest glory, and we thank you for it very, very much. -- Craig Calcaterra
by JLeverenz on Apr 8, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
JL, it does not appear that your analysis of Jodie's 2 pt. misses takes into account that he was fouled well over 100 times in taking those shots.
His lesser stats from 2 don’t suggest that he is a bad shot from 2, but rather that he threw up numerous shots that he knew were probably not going in because he had a defender out of position and knew he was going to draw the foul and get to the line and score.
The best offensive players will do this repeatedly, and it is one of the things that Jodie does exceptionally well. It is actually coached and encouraged and practiced (unless you’re dealing with a Shaquille O’Neil who can’t hit from the free throw stripe). The proof lies in the number of times you get to the line, and with respect to Jodie that stat speaks for itself.
Because he is a good shot, Jodie has been given a pass on some things that badly need work, but I don’t think his shooting per centage from 2 is in that category.
Your analysis on this stuff is very much appreciated, by the way.
by Ken Pomeroy on Apr 8, 2009 5:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Being fouled on a shot doesn't count as an attempt, does it???
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Apr 8, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've always assumed it does, otherwise how would you account for the shots that a guy hits when he is fouled?
In other words, there are times when a fouled shooter actually makes the shot. The stats have to account for those shots, so it would seem they have to count the missed fouled shots as well.
If someone knows otherwise about official scoring, sing out.
by Ken Pomeroy on Apr 8, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not counted unless he makes it
DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!
by davw83 on Apr 8, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Don't Think So
It’s not counted as FGA.
by FortyYearCatFan on Apr 8, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless he makes it, or so I suppose.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Apr 8, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is my understanding.....whew, I had thought I was missing something.
…and horrors of horrors, even being wrong!!
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Apr 8, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So if a guy is fouled on a shot that he MAKES,
is that recorded as a FGA? It would seem you would have to count it, or points begin mysteriously showing up in the scoring column that are not justified by the available number of FGA’s.
by Ken Pomeroy on Apr 8, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A made shot and being fouled is considered a 1-1 FGA. If he is fouled it is 0-0.
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Apr 8, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
http://homepages.tesco.net/~Roger.Yapp/fieldgoal.htm
A field goal attempt will be charged to a player every time he shoots, throws or taps, in a controlled manner, (but not in a crowd of players) a live ball at his own basket, when, in the opinion of the Official Statistician, he is attempting to score a goal (except when he is fouled in the act of shooting and the goal is not made).
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Apr 8, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fantastic assist! Thanks very much.
So, really, players who tend to draw fouls are getting a bit of a boost in their shooting per centages by counting the fouled shots that make it, but not those that don’t. In short, the reported shooting per centage is NOT the true shooting per centage.
That being the case, JL’s concern with Jodie’s accuracy from 2 is EVEN MORE legitimate, as Jodie has the mediocre shooting per centage DESPITE getting fouled a lot, and receiving the benefit of having only his HITS count.
That is something to think about.
by Ken Pomeroy on Apr 8, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the kind words Ken
I have fun researching this stuff and then writing it up, there’s almost always something interesting that turns up – for instance, I would have never guessed that Jodie and Perry shot about the same on jump shots.
I too had wondered whether attempts that draw a foul were counted in the stats until I finally looked it up several years ago. It makes sense though, why penalize a player when an opponent illegally defends them?
I like important stuff just as much as the next guy, but please, for a little while, deliver us from meaning, baseball. That's your greatest glory, and we thank you for it very, very much. -- Craig Calcaterra
by JLeverenz on Apr 8, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And it's the same in football with pass interference.
If the pass is completed, the penalty is declined (usually), and the pass goes down as a completion for the QB.
If the pass was not caught, the penalty is accepted, and the pass attempt disappears from the record books.
by Ken Pomeroy on Apr 9, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No offense
to either HozeKing or Roger Yapp, but I double-checked the NCAA’s official manual. Missed attempts do not count as FGAs if the player is fouled.
Incidentally, the scorer’s judgment is used to determine whether a missed ‘desperation shot’ should count as a FGA. This includes shots taken to beat the shot clock.
by Mahatma on Apr 8, 2009 6:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Link
sorry for the double post.
http://www.ncaapublications.com/Uploads/PDF/2009EZ3931292b-ed1c-4b23-86a6-a37fe02d262e.pdf
by Mahatma on Apr 8, 2009 6:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This all brings to mind the next big question
were we poor shooters, or poor judges of when to shoot?
Remember, were having fun now!!!
by ALLBLUCAT on Apr 8, 2009 6:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's for the coaches to figure out ;-)
I like important stuff just as much as the next guy, but please, for a little while, deliver us from meaning, baseball. That's your greatest glory, and we thank you for it very, very much. -- Craig Calcaterra
by JLeverenz on Apr 8, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One of the coolest posts ever.
Superb information, this!
by eeluk on Apr 9, 2009 8:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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