The Precipitous Decline of UK this season: A statistical look

by JLeverenz on Mar 5, 2009 4:26 PM EST Comment 24 comments

I've been trying to wrap my head around the idea that a UK team with 2 All America candidates can fall from 16-4, 5-0 in the SEC (with 3 SEC road wins to boot) to 3-7 over it's last 10 games culminating with perhaps the most mind-boggling loss in the last 20 years.

While watching the debacle last night, I couldn't help but feel that the defense just didn't look right. I've had this feeling for the last several games, but dismissed it because of the performances against Tennessee and Arkansas as well as a healthy dose of "small sample size" skepticism.

Last night's game ended that skepticism, so this morning I took a look at UK's game-by-game results while paying special attention to the Alabama/Ole Miss games. What I found was striking - UK's defense has fallen off a cliff the last 10 games.

What follows is a breakdown of Kentucky's season into two groups (well three, sort of): The first 20 games in which UK went 16-4 and the last 10 in which they have gone 3-7.

The stats were constructed by using the raw game-by-game numbers provided by Statsheet.com and then broken down into their possession-based cousins.

Key:

F20: Stats from the First 20 games of the season

L10: Stats from the Last 10 games

F20BCS: Stats from games against BCS teams in the first 20 games of the season (11 games total - 6 nonconference and 5 conference).

I've highlighted the stats that show notable changes from the first 20 games to the last 10, but the big one is at the top of the Defense section.

OFFENSE				DEFENSE
	F20	L10	F20BCS		F20	L10	F20BCS
PPP	1.084	1.039	0.982	PPP	0.877	1.062	0.887
eFG%	0.56	0.50	0.52	eFG%	0.42	0.50	0.42
2PT%	0.57	0.49	0.52	2PT%	0.38	0.46	0.39
3PT%	0.36	0.36	0.34	3PT%	0.33	0.38	0.33
FTA/FGA	0.43	0.39	0.50	FTA/FGA	0.32	0.38	0.32
FT%	0.79	0.76	0.80	FT%	0.69	0.70	0.65
OffReb%	0.35	0.35	0.36	DefReb%	0.70	0.64	0.69
Assists/FGM	0.63	0.58	0.60	Assists/FGM	0.44	0.40	0.45
Steal%	0.11	0.11	0.12	Steal%	0.09	0.10	0.09
Block%	0.07	0.16	0.10	Block%	0.18	0.16	0.17
TO%	0.25	0.23	0.30	TO%	0.21	0.19	0.21
Fouls/G	19.8	18	20.5	Fouls/G	17.6	19.2	17.8

UPDATE: It just occurred to me that not all of my abbreviations are decipherable, hopefully I've fixed that.

I have no words to describe that collapse in Defensive Efficiency (points per possession allowed). UK went from having one of the strongest defenses in the country (0.887 ppp would rank 3rd in the country right now) to one of the worst (1.062 ppp would be tied for 277th).

You can see from the other numbers that a good chunk of the decline in the defensive numbers has come from opponents shooting better from the field, both on 2PTers and 3PTers. Notice that UK is still blocking roughly as many shots now as they were earlier in the year, and they have actually made it harder on opponents to score off the pass (4 point decline in opponent AS/FGM). Opponents are getting to the line a bit more over the last 10 games, but I suspect that has more to do with UK fouling at the end of games more as part of time management strategy than it does with some shift in defensive execution.

On the other side of the ball, the offense has actually improved slightly the last 10 games, but I think most of that has to do with turning the ball over less. TO% has improved, particularly against the best teams, but the other offensive stats are down. UK is getting a LOT of shots blocked which explains most of the decline in 2PT%. Offensive rebounding has stayed the same, as has 3PT%.

I'm still shocked by the drop in defensive efficiency, not just by how much it has fallen but also by how quickly it did so. In games 18, 19, and 20 (@Georgia, Auburn, @Bama) UK allowed 0.65 ppp, 0.898 ppp, and 0.688 ppp respectively. In their next 3 games (@Ole Miss, USC, Miss ST) UK allowed 1.16, 1.055, and 0.993 ppp respectively. In their first 20 games UK allowed just 6 opponents to score 1.0 ppp or better and just 8 opponents to score 0.9 ppp or better. In the last 10 games, 6 opponents have scored 1 ppp or better and every opponent has scored better than 0.9 ppp.

If BCG wants to get this team ready for Florida and the NCAA tournament, the defense HAS to be priority #1. If UK can get back to playing the kind of defense we saw the first 20 games, I think they can make a run to the tournament finals. If not, it's going to be an early exit.

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I Compared Overall 2009 Team Stats To Similar 1998 Stats Earlier Today

They were eerily similar.

The last 10 games, I suspect UK team stats are (to quote Adolph Rupp) Gawd Awful.

by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 5, 2009 4:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

They've not been pretty, that's for sure

I like important stuff just as much as the next guy, but please, for a little while, deliver us from meaning, baseball. That's your greatest glory, and we thank you for it very, very much. -- Craig Calcaterra

by JLeverenz on Mar 5, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But what changed?

Does this mean simply that UK’s defense changed? Or (more likely) that our opponents adjusted and started doing something different with their offense?

by Gobe Igbloo on Mar 5, 2009 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No doubt!

Defense is important for any team but especially for this team since they have only two truly reliable scorers, and only one is a three point threat. Last year we had Crawford and Bradley and they are up there in stats on 3s. If you look on UK athletics, they show up in just about every category concerning 3s.

I posted in another thread that our opponents shot 46.6% from three point land in our 11 losses. That is truly unacceptable!

by slidemank on Mar 5, 2009 5:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

As strange as it sounds, this makes me feel a little better about where the team is

We KNOW UK can play good defense – they did it (for the most part) for the first 20 games this year. I don’t know what’s changed in the last 10 games, but the fact that UK played good defense before makes me feel like they can do so again.

Put another way, if the problem was the offense there would be very little reason for optimism – the Cats haven’t played well offensively all season and that’s not going to change now. But they have played well defensively for most of the season – it’s only been recently that they’ve fallen apart. If Gillispie a) recognizes this and b) figures out what’s changed from the first 20 games to the last 10, then I think UK can get back on track.

As far as what needs to change, I don’t really know. Someone with the games on DVR might be able to figure it out, but I only have my own memory to go on and that’s not a lot of use for something like this ;-)

by JLeverenz on Mar 5, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Home v. Away Schedule

In the first 10 games, UK played 70% of their games at home, 20% on neutral, and only 10% away.

In the last 20 games, UK played 55% of their games at home, and 45% away.

That has something to do with it….I would think.

'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'

by HozeKing on Mar 5, 2009 6:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Correction.

In the first 20 games UK played 60% at home, 15% neutral, and only 25% away

In the last 10 games UK played 60% at home and 40% away.

The biggest difference was that in the first 20 the average opponent RPI was 187 but the last 10 games the RPI averaged 75. Obviously, UK is not doing themselves any favor by playing such a weak schedule at the beginning of the year. This also may explain the inflated expectations earlier in the year.

'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'

by HozeKing on Mar 5, 2009 7:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This is why I did the third group of BCS teams

I’m not sure what the RPI is of those 11 teams, but of those 11 games, 5 were on the road, 2 neutral and 4 home. I don’t think the change in competition explains the defensive collapse, the Def. Eff. in those 11 games is only slightly higher than it is in the first 20 games combined.

It could be that teams made adjustments to UK’s defensive scheme and Gillispie has failed to make counter-adjustments. It could also be that the increase in opponent’s offensive rebounding is leading to enough second chance points to drive up the points allowed. I don’t know, and I think I would need to review a lot of game tape to say anything for sure as to “why” this is happening.

by JLeverenz on Mar 5, 2009 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Indication of internal problems

Defensive performance is driven by desire and work ethic to a large degree. Your man scores on you, you get fired up and determined not to let him do so again. The desire to play great defense has left this team and you have to wonder what caused that to happen. I am still a believer that something is and has been going on behind the scenes to damage the chemistry. Team Turmoil II?

by wklawdog on Mar 5, 2009 7:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Could be

We probably won’t know until the season is over. It will be interesting to see if something happened around the time of the Alabama/Ole Miss/South Carolina games.

by JLeverenz on Mar 5, 2009 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well two things happened during the Ole Miss game....if I recall correctly.

1. I think this may have been the first time that coach kind of tossed one of the players ‘under the bus’. Remember this was the game that he kept Liggins in, allowed him to hoist something like 15 shots….and then criticized him after it.

2. It was also the Jeannine Edwards half-time interview. Could that suggest how he handles his players during the halftime talks, for example?

'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'

by HozeKing on Mar 5, 2009 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I got curious about my own memory and did a little bit of fact checking.

I discovered that Liggins has scored zero points in the last 7 games. That is incredible. Where do you think his heart is right now? Wow.

'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'

by HozeKing on Mar 5, 2009 8:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Looking for a new school probably.

A recruit that had as much press as he did coming in that is getting as little time now as he is, has probably decided to look for greener pastures. I hope he stays as I think he would make a better swing than point.

by wklawdog on Mar 6, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Leadership on the court

I still think that what this team lacks is leadership on the floor. The UK team nicknamed the Suffocats were one of the best defensive teams I’ve ever seen. They could just flat shut down other teams. And I think the key to that was having a player like Cliff Hawkins. I seem to remember the other players on that team talking about the pride Cliff took in not letting his guy score, and how he’d get ticked off if the other players let their guys score. There doesn’t seem to be anyone on this team who takes that kind of pride in their defensive effort. Or a player like Chuck Hayes, who, even though he was 6’6’ could rebound better than anyone else….just because he wanted it more. Although seeming to know where the ball was going before it hit the basket helped too. :-) We need guys who just refuse to let the other team beat them and make their teammates follow them.

by sprink on Mar 5, 2009 9:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Exactly.

That’s the main thing missing. Period.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Mar 5, 2009 9:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Suffocats

Hawkins was academically ineligible the first semester that season.

Bogans and Fitch started at G all year. Hawkins was a spark off the the bench in 2nd semester.

by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 5, 2009 9:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I remember Hawkins getting into the head

of the short PG for Ole Miss and causing him to throw an elbow at Hawkins and getting a tech. That was some determination!!!! I miss those guys. :)

It seems that this year’s crop of Cats are soft on defense. They were fired up to begin the season but seemed to have lost interest. Why? It’s probably why Coach seems to be losing his cool. He is known for wanting a suffocating defense. Their lousy defense throws Coach under the bus.

by bluecrip on Mar 6, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Based On The 1 Game That I Saw

They’re soft PERIOD.

Offense, defense, warmups, locker room, bench, everywhere.

by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 6, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with the leadership issue, to a point

I certainly think a true floor leader would help, but the team was playing fine defense without one for the first 2/3 of the season. Now it might be the case that the wheels have spun so far off the cart that there is no hope of recovery, but I think if they played great defense the first 2/3 of the season they can get back to it for the final 3-4 games, leader or not.

by JLeverenz on Mar 5, 2009 10:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bogans Was Actually The Leader On The Suffocats

With Prince gone (those 2 often clashed), he became the Cats’ leader that (2003) season.

by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 6, 2009 6:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Opponents' Adjustment

Gobe Igbloo alluded to it and it might have some validity. It appears from a quick perusal of some video and my own memory — how periodically painful — that the breakdown of UK defense came after opponent’s detected the ineptness of the perimeter defense and the ease with which it could be assaulted by dribble penetration — the last 10 games featured some of the more offensively minded point guards. It is also possible, although I haven’t had the opportunity to check, that UK recognizing this vulnerability played off the perimeter thus freeing up 3-point shooters. Appreciate the effort and numbers, JLeverenz.

by Wild Weasel on Mar 6, 2009 4:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The One Game I Saw

No effort from F, C, or G. No effort in 1st or 2nd half. No effort on offense or defense. No effort by coaches to change any of those things.

Exception was Patrick Patterson. Showed effort all along on both ends of court in both halves.

by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 6, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks WW

Truth is, I had you in mind when I mentioned someone looking at video, as I recall you usually record the games and go back and view them.

While that probably goes a long to in explaining the increase in 3pt percentage, I wonder what the difference is that results in the 2pt% increase? I find it hard to believe that it is due entirely to 2nd chance points from increased offensive rebounding, but I suppose that could be the case.

by JLeverenz on Mar 6, 2009 9:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Offensive rebounding

Thankfully, the UK athletics website tracks second chance points for most games. There has been a change in what opponents are doing with their offensive rebounds:

First 11 BCS Opponents: 136 Off Reb, 121 2nd Chance Points, Conversion: 0.89 Pts/Reb
Last 10 SEC Opponents: 128 Off Reb, 147 2nd Chance Points, Conversion: 1.15 Pts/Reb

So not only are opponents getting more of their own misses, they are converting them into points at a much higher rate.

For comparison’s sake, here is UK over the same stretch:

First 11 BCS: 108 Off Reb, 103 2nd Chance Points, Conversion: 0.95 Pts/Reb
Last 10 SEC: 116 Off Reb, 108 2nd Chance Points, Conversion: 0.93 Pts/Reb

One small disclaimer, I have no idea what constitutes a “good” conversion rate for this kind of thing, nor do I have any idea if this even a good/valid way of looking at 2nd chance opportunities.

by JLeverenz on Mar 7, 2009 7:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs