NOTRE DAME vs. UK on PAPER: WHAT POMEROY SHOWS

by Ken Pomeroy on Mar 24, 2009 12:46 PM EDT Comment 20 comments

Yet again we have to play a team that lives on three-point shooting, which does not play to our strengths. Notre Dame shoots 39.0% from three, which is scary good. Pomeroy’s computer says Notre Dame is the 38th best team in the country (to our 46th place ranking), and that the Irish should beat us by 5 points on their home court.

Computer gives us a 31% chance of victory. Said another way, the Irish would probably beat us two out of every three if we play them in East Bend. Let’s hope that Wednesday is that third game.

ND is the opposite of Creighton in terms of bench minutes. Whereas Creighton played the bench all game long (3rd in the country in bench minutes), Notre Dame sticks with the starting five (8th in the country at the opposite extreme). Part of the reason for that is that the team the Irish put on the court is the 6th most experienced squad in the country. They will be well-conditioned and very experienced.

That may or may not make a difference in how our guys respond.

On the other hand, there are things about this match-up that are very interesting. For one, while our problems with turnovers are well documented, Notre Dame is curiously the worst team in all of Division 1 at getting the other team to turn the ball over.

They get almost no steals or blocks, and have a mediocre defense. That is very ironic, because their offense is second best in the country at NOT turning the ball over. In short, they control the ball well, but also let the other team do so.

If you take from our offense its propensity to give the ball away, it’s pretty darned good. We shoot a high per centage and make our free throws.

On the other hand, our problems with turnovers are not always instigated by great defense on the other side. If Liggins wants to try to get on the highlight reel, or Perry has too much butter before the game (et cetera), it doesn’t really matter whom we’re playing – the ball is going to wind up in the second row. The turnover stat is, however, a very interesting circumstance between these two ball clubs.

Another wild card in this game is that it pits our very solid defense (21st overall) against their very solid offense (also 21st overall), and our offense (made mediocre by turnovers – 81st in the country) against Notre Dame’s mediocre defense (87th in the country). Our strengths against theirs, and our weaknesses against theirs should make for an interesting and unpredictable game.

Patterson vs. Harangody will be fun to watch. Pat has a real chance to show whether he can handle NBA material.

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Just curious, and this is just an observation,

but it seems like most of the Big East teams took care of the ball and rarely turned it over.

Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth.
--O.W.

by blbskue on Mar 24, 2009 1:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ND Was Chameleonic Team

They beat overall #1 seed Louisville by 33 yet lost to Cincinnati a little while later.

If that ND team shows up, the Cats will have to be on their very best performance.

by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 24, 2009 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Might have been the chameleonic Louisville Cardinals.

Lose to UNLV, ND by 33, and lowly Minnesota, but stomp virtually everybody else and earn Number 1 seed.

by Ken Pomeroy on Mar 24, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Minnesota HARDLY Lowly

But I’d expect such a cheap shot.

by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 24, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Forty

Give it a rest

by hoboat33 on Mar 24, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You Meant

Pomeroy give it a rest?

If Minnesota is lowly (and they surely WERE in 2007 at 9-22), then how come UK has been lowlier (40-26 compared to 42-25) the past 2 years?

Minnesota earned their W over Louisville fair and square. The Gophers played tough D and held the Cards to 59 points.

by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 24, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about, BOTH you guys give it a rest....

LMAO…

Steelers fan 1st! UK is my 2nd love.

by vinceuk1 on Mar 24, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Common Opponents

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Notre%20Dame UNC, IU, U of L.

by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 24, 2009 1:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not a very talented or athletic team

ND has Harangody of course, and some guys who can hit 3’s, but they aren’t a very athletic bunch, which I think goes to explain the lack of steals, blocks, and turnovers.

In other words, I think this is a team where a guy like Porter should be able to guard his man without too much trouble and opposing guards shouldn’t be able to give him trouble either.

It’ll be a tough game, but I think this is a team UK actually matches up pretty well with, the 3pt shooting aside.

I like important stuff just as much as the next guy, but please, for a little while, deliver us from meaning, baseball. That's your greatest glory, and we thank you for it very, very much. -- Craig Calcaterra

by JLeverenz on Mar 24, 2009 2:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's an article from a few weeks ago about ND from the guys at baselinestats

http://www.baselinestats.com/20090303/harangodys-last-stand-as-successful-as-custers/

I think these guys follow the Big East more than other conferences, so they have some credibility. Look particularly at the list of teams he gives that give ND trouble – UK has at least 1 player who can fit in each category.

by JLeverenz on Mar 24, 2009 2:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Louisville had guys in each of those categories, too, and got waxed by 33.

Very unpredictible situation.

by Ken Pomeroy on Mar 24, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well sure, you're going to have outliers

But that’s like saying UNLV was better than anybody else in the Big East because they beat UL. ND put everything together for one game. Could they do it again? Sure. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

by JLeverenz on Mar 24, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You have to take their home record into account.

They are a very strong team at home. Posting a 15-3 record there on the season. Most of their troubles have come away from home w/ a 3-8 record in away games and a 2-3 record in neutral games.

It’s gonna be a tough game simply b/c they’ve played well at home all season. Their 3 home losses came against 2 Sweet Sixteen teams in UConn and Villanova and a Marquette squad that was ranked #8 in the nation at the time.

by ben-p on Mar 24, 2009 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cats Haven't L To ND Since Digger Phelps Coached There (Almost 20 Years Ago)

And I think that stReak continues tomorrow night.

by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 24, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

oooh………no more steaks? j/k

by hoboat33 on Mar 24, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the steaks are

rare

by Gobe Igbloo on Mar 25, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True, but...

They are a much different team now than they were at the beginning of the season. For example, once during the later part of the season and in the Big East tournament they lost to WVU, who we beat at the beginning of our season. I do agree that playing at home will be a huge advantage for them.

by KentuckyKate on Mar 24, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The one position to watch

The point I think that will make the biggest impact is not going to be the 3 ball…unless either team is simply draining them…that will not be the game deciding factor. All eyes should be on the inside match-up between Harangody and UK’s inside team. ND has shown its frustration in games where Harangody has a rough time inside. I think if UK can get Harangody flushterd…UK wins by at least 5. If Harangody gets his way…it is going to be a very, very long night.

by Fyrebird_86 on Mar 24, 2009 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The 3! Live And Die.

Generally — always a perilous position — one can say that Irish live by the 3 and Cats die by the 3. Should UK not defend the 3 any better than they did versus Creighton it won’t be close.

Interesting individual matchups:

Harangody vs Patterson: Harangody far more polished and accomplished offensively, better rebounding positions. Patterson stronger, more athletic but limited post moves. Slight advantage Harangody.

McAlarney vs Meeks: No contest athletically, advantage Meeks. Both excellent outside shooters, ironically both slumped in late season, fatigue? Meeks may be a bit better off dribble but not as much as he should be. McAlarney better passer, Meeks better defender. Slight advantage Meeks.

Jackson vs Porter: Athletic mismatch with advantage to Jackson as the more prototypical point guard. UK’s depth may even out the comparison. Advantage Jackson.

Hillelsland vs Stevenson: Defensive edge to Stevenson, offensive edge to Hillelsland, rebounding edge Stevenson, Hillelsland takes care of ball better, passes better. Near toss up.

Ayers vs Harris: Size advantage Ayers, scoring potential advantage Ayers, defensive edge to Harris, rebounding even. Harris recent performances closes ground but slight advantage Ayers.

As has been the case all season I see the point guard play to be determining factor but since UK will get more open shots than in any recent game their ability to make them could cancel out playmaking.

by Wild Weasel on Mar 24, 2009 5:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs