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Blogpoll Ballot: CBS BlogPoll Week 2

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The times, they are a'changin'.

Over most of the last two years, I have been participating in a basketball blogpoll that was largely a group of basketball blogs shoving spreadsheets at each other and coming up with the magic Top 25.

Well, now things have progressed and gotten all fancy, and we have all moved over to the CBS Sports site, which has created a new basketball BlogPoll which is virtually identical to the football BlogPoll.  In fact, it is run by the same people at MGoBlog on the back end, but Jerry Hinnen of Joe Cribbs Car wash is responsible for the writing and discussion (see here for last week, note there are currently issues with formatting) of the compiled poll.

UPDATE:  The compiled poll and commentary are now up.

Star-divide

Naturally, yours truly, with his well-known tendency to overlook his own ballot and fail to put it up timely, forgot to do so last week.  This is a recurring problem with my blogpoll ballots, but all I can say is that I approach the whole thing with the best of intentions, if not flawless execution.

But this week, I am on top of this whole nasty thing (maybe for one week only, who knows?) and I provide for your edification and amusement my ballot below.

RankTeamDelta
1 Connecticut
2 North Carolina 2
3 Pittsburgh 1
4 Memphis 1
5 Oklahoma 1
6 Michigan St. 2
7 Missouri 5
8 Duke 5
9 Kansas 2
10 Louisville 3
11 Villanova 3
12 Arizona St. 10
13 UCLA 4
14 Clemson 1
15 Gonzaga 1
16 Wake Forest 1
17 Illinois 1
18 Xavier 8
19 Washington 1
20 Purdue 1
21 Butler 4
22 Marquette 3
23 California
24 Brigham Young 1
25 West Virginia 1
Last week's ballot

 

Dropped Out: Utah (#25).

Naturally, this ballot presumes facts not immediately in evidence, namely my previous ballot, which was cast but not posted.  Fortunately, that is not lost to posterity but may in fact be found here, where you can conveniently review any of my ballots by merely clicking on the appropriate week (this is the week two ballot above).

There were some big changes in this week's poll, and some of them may not seem deserved.  But as I noted before, my ranking system takes a number of factors into account.  I have recently revamped it for the new poll and no longer include the AP or Coach's poll in my calculation, but I do now include the Sagarin ratings along with the RPI, Ken Pomeroy's rankings, and BBState.  These are weighted by magic formula and I have added a final override that I include at the end.  This override is primarily necessary due to teams like West Virginia, who has played an obscenely tough schedule and has managed to somehow wind up weirdly high in all the stats-based systems, while their actual performance on the court would not seem to support such a lofty perch.  It's one of those anomalies that simply can't be corrected for any other way.

It's interesting to note that positions 11-15 and 17-20 are all so close in my rankings that there is just really no practical difference between them -- any team in either of those two ranges could just about occupy any spot within that range.  The top five is largely unchanged with the exception of Duke dropping way down by virtue of losing 4 of their last six.  Memphis has moved up into the top five by virtue of their 15 consecutive wins, including wins over some pretty good teams.  I am not really sold yet on Memphis, and they have to travel to UTEP (a better team than many realize) and UAB in the next couple of weeks.  If they continue their winning ways, I will be more confident in my inclusion of them.

Villanova makes a net move up despite my doubts about them due to an impressive victory over Marquette and other teams above them losing.  They just lost at West Virginia, which does give me pause about their position.  Butler takes a big hit due to their recent loss to Loyola of Chicago, currently ranked #235 by Pomeroy at home.  That is a really, really bad loss at this point in the season.  UCLA gets gigged for two losses in a row, and Missouri makes a big move because they just keep winning.

So there it is.  Comments welcome and encouraged.

P.S.  I forgot to mention where Kentucky is.  How does 39th sound?  Yeah, not that good to me, either.  For the record, Tennessee is the highest SEC team at 33, and LSU is just ahead of UK at 38.  You'd think LSU would be higher than that, wouldn't you?

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Memphis over Oklahoma

Raised my eyebrows a bit.

Otherwise, it seems as valid as any other poll I’ve seen.

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Feb 16, 2009 2:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah.

Me, too. The difference between them is only 15/100ths of a point, so I can live with that. The difference between Memphis and Pittsburgh is ten times that.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Feb 16, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Really solid poll.

The main difference between me and you was West Virginia.

Now, I understand the argument that they have 8 losses and all. It makes sense. But, their absolute worst loss was to Davidson; second-worst being a loss to you guys. In Big East play, they’ve gotten swept by Pitt, lost to Uconn at home, and lost tough, road games to Syracuse, LVille and and Marquette. There isn’t a bad loss in that entire bunch.

So, a question I asked myself is to wonder how the other teams below them would fare against such a murderous row. Now, going winless against them isn’t terribly appealing, but only one of them (@ Marquette) was more than a 15 point differential. And, they have a win @ Mississippi (with Chris Warren and company), a win @ Ohio State, a demolition of Villanova at home. Their resume isn’t completely barren. And without a really tough game left (except vs. Louisville, but that’s still winnable), they could win out. All of a sudden, they are easily a Top 10 team. I suppose it makes sense to wait before they pick up a couple of solid wins before bumping ’em up, but what can I say.

I like to be ahead of the curve…;)

(Of course, now watch them drop an easy one…)

by rockchalk on Feb 16, 2009 3:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

And just to clarify.

I’m not ranking them at #10 using likely future wins. I was just trying to say, that until they pick up a “bad loss” (at least a non-Top 50 one), you shouldn’t punish them too much for their 8 L’s.

by rockchalk on Feb 16, 2009 3:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't ...

… disagree with your reasoning. But my mind is too small to put them that high. :-)

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Feb 16, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Heh.

Well, nothing would trip my trigger more than to have WVU ranked up there — we beat them at a neutral site!

My straight-up analysis had them at something like 12 or 14. I now introduce a little human element into it that moved them down to the range that my sanity could live with. There is absolutely no doubt that WVU has played a murderous schedule, and frankly, 8 wins isn’t bad, I just can’t get myself to put them higher than the top 20-25 somewhere.

Trust me, it did not raise my eyebrows one bit to find you had them that high. If I hadn’t introduced my own biases (something my previous iteration did not do) I would have had them nearly as high as you. Since so much of my algorithm is based on Pomeroy, Sagarin and BBState, I will go out on a limb and say that WVU’s relatively high ranking vs. its W/L record is likely to be indicative of future wins on neutral floors. I think they will be murder in the tournament.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Feb 16, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The purely objective Pomeroy rankings have West Virginia at #6.

That’s a computer ranking, of course, so no politics (or intimidation) were involved. Rockchalk may have great prescience as well as great courage.

by Ken Pomeroy on Feb 16, 2009 5:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah.

But it also isn’t foolproof. :-)

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Feb 16, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Now, Jared (Carter), Your Eligibility Expires

Unless you apply for Medical Redshirt year (2007).

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 16, 2009 7:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

LOL!! Very good Forty:)

Well, since I’m about 5-8 and almost 44 years old I think I’ll hold off on applying for that medical RS.

by Ken Howlett on Feb 16, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

New favorite comment

I have a new favorite comment by Forty. You’re on a roll lately, big guy.

by Acdixon on Feb 16, 2009 11:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

LSU ranked 23 in the AP Poll

I’m going to pretend the Coaches’ Poll just doesn’t exist.

South Carolina got 10 votes, Kentucky got 5 votes, and Tennessee got 2 votes. Nada for Florida.

Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth.
--O.W.

by blbskue on Feb 16, 2009 4:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The SEC - what to do

Now i know that the SEC is down, but to say that the highest ranked team is 33rd? and the team with only 1 loss is 38th? it looks like your rankings are based on the computers so i guess my “gut” argument cannot not go far that the SEC is not as bad as “everyone” thinks.

The issue, over the years, has been that given i am a UK fan, i tend to see each SEC at its best on any given night. I witnessed the ole miss loss in person – and it was hard for me to believe that they had lost several players to injuries – especially guards. Also, watching MSU shoot the lights out (and then their follow up win vs ARK) made me think maybe they were one of the better outside shooting team in the nation. the USC loss in between was less understandable – except that, downey not withstanding, it seemed like a pretty balanced team.

guess my point is, i sure wish the SEC teams that do get to the tournament would show everyone the game they bring against UK – then maybe we (SEC) would get more respect.

living in memphis, it is tough to watch Memphis win 52 in a row in conference play and have some try to say that conf usa is better than sec – what a joke. at least the rpi ranks have finally worked themself out so that the SEC is 6th (per warren nolan)

by memphis wildcat on Feb 16, 2009 4:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

SEC Down, Blame Recruiting

One need only look at recruiting rankings over last 4 years to see why SEC is 6 of 6 BCS conferences:

Upperclassmen – Recruits Of 2005 & 2006: Only 1 team in top 10 classes both years combined; 6 more in top 25.

2007: 1 team in top 10; 3 more top 25
2008: 2 teams in top 10, 4 more top 25

Conclusion: Down recruiting in 2005 & 2006 = lack of quality upperclassmen; Improved recruiting in 2007 & 2008 = talented but young teams with a brighter future.

2009 could be better: only 1 in top 10; just 2 more in top 25.

Appears NYT article could be accurate: lack of quality players contributes to SEC decline vis a vis ACC, Big East, Big 10(11), Big 12.

by Wild Weasel on Feb 16, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Per RSCI Consensus

2005 – Miss St 7, LSU 8.

2006 – Tenn 8.

2007 – Fla 2.

2008 – Fla 5, Tenn 8, Bama 10.

Your numbers are off (per RSCI).

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 16, 2009 9:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Rivals

On according to Rivals

by Wild Weasel on Feb 16, 2009 10:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Rivals Is One Source

I prefer RSCI because it blends the 5 or 6 major sources.

UK was #14 in 2006 and #11 in 2007 plus #13 in 2008. Not Top 10 but pretty close to it.

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 16, 2009 10:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

my point, is made by Gobe below

i think….

i do not want to brag about being 6th of 6th, but the talking heads seem to think the SEC is even worst than that. my opinion is even with down recruiting, we still have more talent and better teams top to bottom than anyone of the Other Conferences.

with that opinion, it is hard for me to accept no teams in the top 25 (although i guess we have 1 in 1 poll now)….

by memphis wildcat on Feb 16, 2009 10:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Glorified A10?

If the CBS blogdude wants to use the Pomeroy Ratings to substantiate SOME of his claims while he trashes the SEC, perhaps he should notice that Pomeroy has Arkansas (1-9, SEC) rated .6037 (123rd in the nation) right next to Richmond (4-6, A10) at .6062 (122nd in the nation), both being rated higher than the 6 cellar-dwellers rated even lower in the A10.

KenPom’s conference ratings also shows the A10 further behind the SEC than the SEC is behind the highest rated conference. source: http://www.kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2009&c=A10

Also, the SEC has won 42% of its games against the other 5 BCS conferences, while the A10 has won 28% against those conferences. source: http://www.colleyrankings.com/hcurconf.html

Being the 6th of 6th Power Conferences is nothing like being one of the best Other Conferences.

by Gobe Igbloo on Feb 16, 2009 8:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Conneticut

I think we’re all living in UConn’s world, as much as I hate to write that.

But of course we were all living in UConn’s world three years ago and they were taken out of the Tournament by (I believe) George Mason, after scraping by a very average UK team.

I still like UNC but their lack of defensive play concerns me come NCAA time.

I’ve seen Missouri play a couple of times over that last few weeks, and Mike Anderson has done a terrific job rebuilding that program from the destruction that was former Dookie Quinn Snyder. Of the “second tier” teams I like them a lot.

I think UK is deserving of a 35-40 ranking at the moment. Their next four games (@Vandy, UT, @USC, and LSU) will tell the story of their season. Lose all four, or go 1-3, and making the Tournament may be a reach. But if they go 4-0 then they may be in line for a decent seed. Because they lost three games they should have won (UM, USC, and MSU) they have put themselves in a precarious position as far as the Tournament is concerned.

by Ken Howlett on Feb 16, 2009 4:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

agree

i think we need to go at least 2-2 to make the dance and take care of uga at home. do that and at gainsville is non issue as long as we do not get blown out -

by memphis wildcat on Feb 16, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

UConn

I have an easier time swallowing “we’re all living in UConn’s world” than if you had said “we’re all living in Jim Calhoun’s world.” That’s one dude who gets under my skin!

by Acdixon on Feb 16, 2009 11:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't care for Calhoun either ...

… that’s why I wrote, " … as much as I hate to write that."

It may be their world, but UConn winning the whole deal is another thing all together. But they have a deadly combination of great point guard play (Price), and a dominating center (Thabeet). And plus, Calhoun is a great coach, even though no one outside of Storrs would give him the time of day.

by Ken Howlett on Feb 17, 2009 12:59 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No One Realized It Back Then

But Calhoun at Fairfield U and Pitino at Boston U had some titanic battles in the late 70’s and early 80’s.

Few thought those 2 would wind up among the best coaches of their era.

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 17, 2009 6:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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