Kentucky at Arkansas: Pre-game

by Truzenzuzex on Feb 14, 2009 1:49 AM EST in Basketball Comment 25 comments

The Wildcats come a-callin' on the Razorbacks of Arkansas in Bud Walton Arena, Saturday at 1:00 PM for an inter-divisional matinée that may well find the 'Cats Patterson-less for the first time this year. Unfortunately for the Hawgs, it also looks like their star point guard, Courtney Fortson, will also be on the sidelines for some kind of undisclosed transgression.

Let's begin by looking at the basic stats of both teams:

Player Stats: Arkansas

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Michael Washington	21	30.1	6.4	11.1	57.5	0.2	1.0	20.0	4.1	6.7	61.4	3.5	6.3	9.8	0.8	2.0	0.7	1.4	3.0	17.0
Courtney Fortson	21	32.8	5.2	11.9	43.8	0.9	3.1	29.2	3.5	5.9	58.9	1.6	3.6	5.2	6.5	4.3	1.2	0.1	2.5	14.8
Stefan Welsh	21	30.1	4.2	10.9	39.0	2.0	5.5	35.7	2.1	3.3	65.2	0.8	2.8	3.5	2.2	2.0	1.0	0.1	2.4	12.6
Rotnei Clarke	21	29.8	3.5	9.0	39.4	2.3	6.2	37.7	1.4	1.5	96.8	0.5	1.5	2.0	1.0	0.7	0.7	0.0	1.1	10.8
Jason Henry	15	17.2	2.6	6.5	40.2	0.9	2.6	33.3	1.5	2.2	66.7	1.3	2.9	4.1	0.6	1.5	1.0	0.1	1.7	7.5
Michael Sanchez	21	23.4	1.9	4.1	45.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.2	3.3	67.1	1.4	3.6	5.0	0.8	1.2	0.7	0.2	2.7	6.0
Marcus Monk	8	16.1	1.6	3.5	46.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3	1.5	83.3	1.0	2.1	3.1	0.5	0.6	1.0	0.5	1.5	4.5
Montrell McDonald	4	19.3	1.8	4.0	43.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	2.8	36.4	1.3	4.0	5.3	0.5	2.0	0.5	0.5	1.8	4.5
Marcus Britt	21	17.8	1.2	2.5	49.1	0.4	0.9	44.4	0.8	0.9	89.5	0.4	1.4	1.8	1.0	0.4	1.1	0.2	1.0	3.7
Andre Clark	15	8.4	1.0	1.7	57.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.9	57.1	0.7	1.3	2.0	0.2	0.9	0.1	0.3	0.9	2.5
Brandon Moore	18	8.6	0.7	1.7	43.3	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.6	0.9	62.5	0.5	1.1	1.6	0.4	0.7	0.7	0.5	1.1	2.0
Stephen Cox	9	3.1	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	50.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.1
John Paul Noland	2	2.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.0
Nick Mason	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	21	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8	1.7	3.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0

Player Stats: Kentucky

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Jodie Meeks	24	34.4	7.5	16.1	46.8	3.6	8.4	43.3	6.3	7.0	89.9	0.6	2.9	3.5	1.6	2.9	1.3	0.2	2.0	25.0
Patrick Patterson	24	32.8	7.0	11.0	64.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	4.7	80.4	2.4	6.8	9.1	2.0	2.0	0.7	2.0	2.6	17.8
Perry Stevenson	24	27.8	3.0	5.2	57.6	0.1	0.4	30.0	1.9	2.5	75.0	2.0	4.8	6.7	1.7	2.1	0.8	2.2	2.7	8.0
DeAndre Liggins	23	19.4	1.9	5.0	38.6	0.4	1.9	22.7	1.5	2.2	68.6	0.2	2.6	2.8	3.2	2.8	0.9	0.5	1.9	5.8
Ramon Harris	19	20.5	1.8	3.5	52.2	0.2	0.9	16.7	1.2	2.1	56.4	0.6	2.4	3.0	1.3	2.2	0.7	0.3	1.6	5.0
Josh Harrellson	23	11.0	1.9	3.8	49.4	0.2	0.5	41.7	1.0	1.5	70.6	1.2	2.0	3.2	0.4	0.9	0.3	0.6	1.2	5.0
Darius Miller	24	19.8	1.4	3.9	35.5	0.3	1.4	20.6	1.0	1.3	78.1	0.9	2.4	3.3	1.9	1.8	0.7	0.6	2.3	4.1
Michael Porter	24	22.3	1.2	3.5	33.7	0.7	2.2	30.8	0.7	0.9	81.0	0.3	1.6	2.0	2.8	2.3	0.8	0.0	1.7	3.7
Landon Slone	10	8.8	0.6	2.0	30.0	0.4	1.4	28.6	0.6	0.6	100.0	0.5	0.9	1.4	0.9	0.2	0.3	0.0	0.6	2.2
A.J. Stewart	20	6.1	0.7	1.6	41.9	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.5	0.5	90.0	0.5	0.7	1.1	0.3	0.7	0.3	0.6	1.3	1.8
Kevin Galloway	19	7.6	0.6	1.3	45.8	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.3	0.7	46.2	0.5	1.1	1.6	1.6	0.9	0.3	0.2	0.6	1.5
Jared Carter	7	3.7	0.1	0.7	20.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	0.9	66.7	0.3	0.6	0.9	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.9
Mark Halsell	6	1.7	0.2	0.2	100.0	0.2	0.2	100.0	0.2	0.3	50.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7
Dwight Perry	6	1.8	0.2	0.3	50.0	0.2	0.3	50.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.7	0.5
Mark Krebs	8	2.6	0.1	0.5	25.0	0.1	0.5	25.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4
	24	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	1.3	2.8	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0

Team Stats Comparison (Courtesy of Kenpom.com)

	Arkansas		Kentucky
Category	Offense	Defense	Offense	Defense	D-I Avg
Adj. Efficiency:	103.3 [126]	98.7 [121]	106.6 [92]	88.0 [12]	100.8
Adj. Tempo:	70.4 [42]		69.7 [54]		66.8
Four Factors
Effective FG%:	50.2 [128]	49.7 [202]	54.2 [18]	43.1 [8]	49
Turnover %:	19.0 [75]	19.8 [213]	24.6 [326]	20.1 [202]	20.7
Off. Reb. %:	33.9 [141]	28.7 [25]	34.9 [110]	29.7 [52]	33.1
FTA/FGA:	42.4 [38]	29.2 [39]	42.4 [39]	32.3 [89]	36.4
Miscellaneous Components
3P%:	33.8 [174]	35.4 [233]	34.8 [139]	34.2 [177]	34.2
2P%:	49.9 [93]	47.6 [149]	55.1 [10]	39.0 [3]	47.8
FT%:	65.0 [281]	65.6 [43]	78.5 [4]	67.5 [109]	68.6
Block%:	11.5 [309]	8.1 [196]	8.2 [134]	17.8 [3]	8.9
Steal%:	8.0 [22]	10.2 [147]	11.0 [261]	9.0 [230]	9.9
Style Components
3PA/FGA:	32.3 [180]	38.2 [307]	30.3 [235]	33.1 [187]	33
A/FGM:	50.7 [246]	61.4 [322]	62.0 [28]	43.2 [8]	54.2
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3-Pointers:	25.6 [225]	34.2 [15]	22.4 [292]	31.5 [52]	27.5
2-Pointers:	52.9 [157]	49.7 [259]	54.1 [120]	48.4 [284]	52.1
Free Throws:	21.6 [105]	16.1 [320]	23.5 [37]	20.2 [182]	20.3
Strength of Schedule
Components:	101.5 [151]	101.5 [198]	102.8 [88]	100.7 [168]	100.8
Overall:	0.5003 [167]		0.5603 [117]		0.5
Non-conference:	0.2693 [329]		0.4331 [241]		0.5
Personnel
Bench Minutes:	25.3% [296]		29.2% [216]		31.10%
Experience:	0.74 yrs [339]		1.34 yrs [270]		1.66
Effective Height:	+1.6 [75]		+1.6 [74]		0
Average Height:	76.0" [234]		78.7" [3]		76.5"

Analysis

Personnel

The first thing you notice about Arkansas is how young they are. Arkansas generally starts at least two freshmen and often three, along with a couple of juniors. They have one of the youngest starting lineups in all of college basketball, and one of the least experienced overall. If you will notice above in the "Experience" stat, you will see that Arkansas, as a team, has less than one year of experience, 339th in all of Division I.

In the front court, Arkansas generally starts the talented junior Michael Washington and red shirt freshman Michael Sanchez. Washington is a multi-dimensional, athletic forward who has range as well as the ability to post up and score down low, and is almost averaging a double-double at 17 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. Michael Sanchez is more one-dimensional, having mostly a post-up game and being a banger around the basket with his 6'8" 236# frame. Backups include freshmen Brandon Moore and Andre Clark, with Jason Henry seeing most of his time at the three. Front line backup and Hawg football player Marcus Monk has been removed from the team due to some kind of potential rules violation and will no longer be available.

In the back court, the Razorbacks normally have super-frosh Courtney Fortson, the 5'11" fireball of a point guard with dreadlocks to die for. Unfortunately, Fortson has been suspended by coach John Pelphrey for unspecified reasons apparently related to discipline. That will likely force Stefan Welsh or Rotnei Clarke to handle the point-guard duties, along with little used reserve Marcus Britt. Clark and Welsh are both theoretically wing players who's primary job is 3-point shooting, something both players do extremely well, both shooting 35+ percent from behind the arc. But Fortson was the ice that chills the Arkansas drink, and it will be hard for the Razorbacks to replace his aggressiveness and ability to break down defenses.

Teams

Arkansas' main strengths, statistically, are ballhandling, offensive rebounding and getting to the free throw line. With Fortson out, two of those three are likely to be greatly diminished. Arkansas is also a relatively poor free throw shooting team, so the fact that they get to the line a lot is not terribly helpful to their cause.

Four factors analysis:

eFG%: Advantage Kentucky on offense and defense.
Turnover%: Advantage Arkansas on offense and Kentucky on defense
Offensive Rebound %: Advantage Kentucky on offense Arkansas on defense.
FT Attempts/FG Attempt: Offensively, it is a push. Advantage Arkansas on defense.

Overall

With Patrick Patterson potentially out with an ankle sprain and Courtney Fortson suspended, this game takes a slight turn toward Kentucky. The reason is that UK really does not have a player who can effectively guard Courtney Fortson, as he is the major focus of Arkansas' offense. While the potential loss of Patrick Patterson will seriously hurt Kentucky in the front court, Kentucky is deep enough to make up for it against the much younger and thinner Razorbacks.

With Patterson out, it will take a concerted effort by Stevenson and whoever else mans the front court with him to keep the Razorbacks from dominating the offensive glass. The only redeeming factor is that the Razorbacks take a lot of three point shots, and those rebounds tend to be out and away from the big people, giving Kentucky's longer and somewhat quicker back court a better shot at collecting those rebounds.

Last game, Kentucky did a lot of switching off of ball screens, much more than they have all season. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues. Kentucky does have a lot of players in the 6'5"-6'7" size range, which minimizes the mismatch on the screener. However, UK often ends up with Perry Stevenson or Josh Harrellson on a guard when they switch, and although that worked out OK against Florida, it may be less successful against the Hawgs. We'll have to wait and see how Gillsipie plays that angle.

The pace of this game is likely to be frenetic, particularly if Kevin Galloway sees a lot of minutes. Galloway was a one-man wrecking crew against Florida, and if his intensity continues, it will bode well for Kentucky. Arkansas will probably not slow down too much without Fortson, so I still expect the game pace to be relatively high. Kentucky's much greater overall length will definitely bother the Razorbacks, and if Patterson is unable to go, the guards will be a critical factor in rebounding. Kentucky's guards are much bigger and longer than Arkansas, particularly with Liggins and Galloway in the game.

Arkansas has been very down lately, losing some close games where they looked great for most of the game, and also looking very bad in some others. This is a bit of a trap game for Kentucky coming off the defeat of Florida, and with Patterson questionable, this game can easily go the wrong way for the Wildcats. I am very concerned about UK's defensive intensity, because the Razorbacks will likely be very intense due to their recent run of adversity. The suspension of Fortson will only serve to motivate them to redouble their efforts, and Kentucky has been caught once already taking a team lightly down in Oxford, and that team hung a big, fat L on the 'Cats.

In the final analysis, the 'Cats have an advantage in talent and depth, even with Patterson out. Fortson's absence will likely force Arkansas to slow down just a bit and run some offense, something they are not used to doing. Kentucky's low post presence will be diminished, so it will be up to Jodie Meeks to handle much of Kentucky's scoring. UK will have to get contributions from the same people it did last game if Patterson is not available in order to win this game. In the end, UK should have just enough firepower to outlast the depleted Hawgs.

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Comments

Todays game

The loss of Fortson helps but the loss of Patterson hurts us probably more especially if the Cats can’t find other scoring options besides Jodie Meeks. Meeks has to play huge while PP is out and hopefully we will see others step up like in the Florida game. It will be interesting to see what Galloway does today against the Hogs. I’m still not sold on him but it’s hard to sometimes tell what a player has to offer because of Billy G’s sometimes wacky subsitution patterns. No question we need this game because of the schedule ahead and I think UK is still on the fringe of the bubble so they need wins. If the Hogs come out hitting their three’s it could be a long game. But I think the Cats will find a way to win. Cats by 5.

by maysvilleblue on Feb 14, 2009 9:06 AM EST reply actions

I disagree

I think the loss of Fortson is a bigger deal than the loss of Patterson.

Now wait… hear me out… please… put down your pitchforks…

Arkansas is a small and fast team. Fortson was the quickest of them. He plays the point, which is a position that has caused us trouble all year long. I live in fear of teams with small, quick point guards that can eat Liggins and Porter for breakfast.

Contrast that with us being able to come at Arkansas with a combo of Harrelson, Stevenson, and AJ Stewart in place of Patterson and I think we still match up very favorably in the post with them.

One way or another, we’ll know for sure by 3 PM today! Lets go Cats!

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Feb 14, 2009 9:54 AM EST up reply actions

Fortson ...

… is probably more important to Arkansas than Patterson is to UK right now. Arkansas depends upon him to do many things, and they are a very shallow team.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Feb 14, 2009 10:22 AM EST up reply actions

Shallow Hogs

Not sure I agree with them being shallow. Even with Fortson out they have 3 other players scoring in double figures. With PP out today,after Meeks the next highest scorer for the Cats is Stevenson at 8 per game. The Cats may have more bodies to put on the floor but the quality isn’t there in my opinion or hasn’t been for most of the year. Of course the exception to that was the Florida game and I hope that’s a trend. I agree the loss of Fortson hurts the Hogs. It always does when a team loses their point guard. But I still think it’s going to be scary without Patterson for us because of the year long problem of others scoring to take the focus off Meeks/Patterson.

by maysvilleblue on Feb 14, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

Agree Chirop1

Patterson obviously has a huge impact on our team but I agree that Forston’s absence will impact Arkansas more.

You have to take into account the amount of time Fortson spends with the ball in his hand as compared to Patt. The difference a point guard and post player have on your offense is dramatic. Pat spend far less time in control of the offense and if Arky doesnt have quality depth behind Fortson they will struggle.

DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!

by davw83 on Feb 14, 2009 10:23 AM EST up reply actions

Real Patterson

Fact is we haven’t seen the authentic Patterson in last few games due to hand injury and perhaps some other issues so his absence will not be as detrimental as it would have been earlier in season.

by Wild Weasel on Feb 14, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions

We can compensate

Earlier in the year, when Patterson had to sit out with fouls, it appeared to me that we were a more fluid team. Without the imperative to get Patterson “touches” on every possession, we seemed to move the ball around more quickly.

by Fortunatus on Feb 14, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions

Monk Also Gone

Don’t know Y but saw it on the Internet today.

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 14, 2009 10:04 AM EST reply actions

Some kind of eligibility issue.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Feb 14, 2009 10:22 AM EST up reply actions

Does UK feel lucky?

Get to play Arkansas w/o Fortson & Vandy w/o Ogilvy…..and Tennessee w/o their defense. :)

'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'

by HozeKing on Feb 14, 2009 10:32 AM EST reply actions

Does U Of L Feel Lucky?

Gets UConn at home and then Notre Dame on a 7 game L streak.

Oops.

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 14, 2009 10:34 AM EST up reply actions

Luck ...

… is something I welcome, although I am reluctant to characterize the misfortunes of another team as “luck.” Is Arkansas “lucky” that Patterson is hurt?

I suppose you could make both arguments, but frankly, I want all teams at full strength. I hate having to deal with the “But for ____ being out, you wouldn’t have won.”

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Feb 14, 2009 10:36 AM EST up reply actions

I hear ya.

Certainly UK has nothing to feel ‘guilty’ about given the Patterson situation last year, especially. I just wish UConn could have thrown us a ‘favor’ by not chosing to play defense…but again Calhoun isn’t Pearl, is he?

'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'

by HozeKing on Feb 14, 2009 10:44 AM EST up reply actions

I admire Calhoun in some ways

They missed the NCAA tourney not all that long ago IIRC and yet now he has them back kicking ass and taking names.

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Feb 14, 2009 10:49 AM EST up reply actions

Missed It TWICE

Missed postseason ALTOGETHER one year.

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 14, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions

Yea, what's your point?

'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'

by HozeKing on Feb 14, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions

My point is that he was down

And has them back at the top of the country in short order.

Around here we fret because we’re down and wondering how Gillispie can ever get back to a competitive level, but Calhoun fell off the map completely and already has his school back at an elite level. Something to think about.

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Feb 14, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

Calhoun

Don’t think you can compare UConn to UK as far as the pressure of the coaches getting their programs back “on the map”. UConn had a couple of down years in mens bball but I don’t think there was any “Fire Calhoun” websites out there. If UK,god forbid,were to miss the NCAA tourney this year,BG will be very much on the hotseat next season. And even if they do make it,fans aren’t going to put up with too many more years of not being rated in the top 25,low seeding in the NCAA and also early exits. Myself included. I don’t think Calhoun ever felt or will ever feel that kind of heat at UConn.

by maysvilleblue on Feb 14, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

Of course not...

But that doesn’t change the fact that he was able to turn it around.

Hell, if anything… it puts more pressure on Gillispie in my book!

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Feb 14, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions

Calhoun

UConn had a run of a couple of bad seasons and it took longer to turn it around than we realize. Calhoun was very established there with a history of big recruits and has wond a championship, G is only in his second season here and while it feels interminably long that UK fans have been suffering in basketball purgatory it really hasnt been that long. The job will get done.

DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!

by davw83 on Feb 14, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions