North Carolina in the Rear-View Mirror
I think the Big Blue Nation is still very much enjoying the feeling of finally exorcising a five-year North Carolina winning streak versus Kentucky yesterday in front of a record Rupp Arena crowd. I know I am.
At this point, I think we need to take a look back at the game and see how it compares to other recent efforts by the 'Cats. But before we get there, I want to comment on a few things that I didn't in my post-game analysis.
The first is the play of DeMarcus Cousins. This was a sub-par game for the big guy, and there is no doubt that he knows it. Cousins was obviously very upset with himself on the sideline, even while blaming the officials for the call that generated his benching in the second half. I think that this game will do more for Cousins than all the other games UK has played so far this year combined in bringing home the difference between the game he used to dominate (AAU basketball) and top-level college basketball. Cousins is a tremendously gifted player, and all he needs to make the most of that gift is the desire to do so, and realizing that you were outplayed in front of 24,000+ on national TV is likely to be a big motivator.
The second is the maturation of John Wall. Game by game, this young man gains a better and better understanding of what great basketball is supposed to look like. Like the last game, this is a game in which Wall did not often try to make the spectacular play, but just made the simple play. Yes, that reverse layup was spectacular, but that was the exception rather than the rule. Wall's absence in the second half, and the run UNC went on, is not a knock on the skills of Bledsoe, but a bit of a knock on the confidence of this team without Wall. John's teammates have to learn to trust Bledsoe as much as Wall.
More after the jump.
I always like to look back at the stats, and see where UK succeeded and where they did not. Here is the Four Factors analysis for the game:
What we see here is that UK won two of the four factors. But the two factors that result in extra possessions were won by the Tar Heels, turnover percent by a significant margin, and that is what nearly sunk Kentucky toward the end of the game.
Consider the tale of two halves: UK won the points off turnovers in the first half by a count of 20-11 (+9), but lost that same battle in the second half 14-3 (-11), giving the Tar Heels a net advantage of +2.
Next, consider second chance points. North Carolina won both halves, 8-5 and 8-2 respectively, winding up with a +9 advantage. Together with the points off turnovers, the Heels were +11 in points off extra shots, and if you examine the shot attempts, you will find that they achieved 13 more field goal attempts than the 'Cats, which was almost enough to undo the lead Kentucky built up in the first half.
Next, I want to examine how UK is winning these games. Consider this chart:
What this illustrates are four statistics -- UK shots taken, opponent shots taken, UK effective field goal% and opponent effective field goal%.
As you can see, UK is allowing opponents to get off more shots than they do in four of their eight games. Fortunately, UK has only lost the eFG% battle one time, and that was one of the four times that UK got more shots than their opponent (otherwise, of course, UK would probably have lost).
Opponents are getting these extra shots through turnovers and offensive rebounding. Up until now, UK has won offensive rebounding most of the time, but as we progress in the schedule to play tougher and tougher teams, the turnover problem is going to become more and more difficult to minimize by winning the OR% battle, as bigger teams (such as we saw yesterday) are going to be more competitive in that area.
Finally, there is one more statistical trend I want to examine, that of assist percentage:
This points to the maturation of John Wall that I mentioned earlier in this piece. You can see that the trend line for this stat is on a nice upward climb, and even with Wall at less than 100% in the second half of yesterday's affair, we still had a better assist percentage than UNC. For a team with big guys and a big low post game, like UK and UNC, this is a very telling and important statistic.
The win over the Tar Heels was a very important one for UK, and continues to highlight the end-of-game toughness that this Kentucky team has demonstrated all year long. If UK can learn to reel in the turnovers and get tougher on the offensive glass against quality opposition, there is no reason why this Wildcat team cannot make a very deep run in March. As John Wall matures before our eyes and seems to improve game after game, we can only wonder how good the 'Cats can be when DeMarcus Cousins decides that he has had enough and follows him.
That could be very good, indeed.
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Comments
Excellent
One other thing that hasn’t received enough attention to my mind is how well UK is shooting from behind the arc. After the UNC game they are at 37.9% (68th best in the country). That’s the best percentage since the 95-96 team shot 39.7% – that’s impressive.
Just for comparison, last year’s Memphis team shot 32.6% and the 07-08 team shot 34.9% on threes.
3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.
It is.
You know, that was supposed to be a weakness of this team, but it hasn’t turned out that way.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
Another Impressive Stat Is FG % Differential
UK shooting almost 51% but opponents shooting under 37% so far.
That 14% differential is HUGE. Anything over 10% is excellent.
by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 6, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
Cousins
is going to have to get over all the hype he’s heard and read about himself and realize that he has to prove himself every time he takes the court. If he can do this then he will be an extremely valuable asset to the team. The fact that we beat UNC without any significant contribution from him and it wasn’t his absence that almost cost us the game should hit home really hard.
I agree
He had a nice seat watching Orton do nothing fancy, make defensive stops, not put points on the board, but took them away from the other team, and get praise from the coach. Get it boogie?
Yep...
All facts… I think Cuz has all the potential in the world, but right now he’s fighting a mental battle with himself! Kinda like Jekyll and Hyde, you never know which guy is going to show up. We saw Jekyll yesterday, past couple of games we’ve seen Mr Hyde. Not much we can do about it, it’s all in his court now and this is part of his maturation process… Unfortunately, 24K + National TV coverage all saw it too yesterday.
Orton, as you said, didn’t do much on the stat line but I’m really excited to see him finally show some emotion!! He’s generally pretty stoic but he we made that block yesterday he leaned back and let out a caveman yell!! LOL
2 potentially great bigs = (Cuz + Orton’s calmness) + (Orton + Cuz’s intesity)
Potential roommates!?!?!
If your wings don't sweep....
Coach said...
Now we just need Orton to find a little offense. I hope Cousins sees this as a motivational tool. Nice to know Orton’s around next year. I see him becoming a team leader next year in the same mold as PPat. Doesn’t say alot, but leads by example.
Sorry
I think you meant that we had Mr. Hyde last night and Dr. Jekyll during the last couple of games.
Uhhh... Yeah!
My English Lit teacher is now going to haunt me!! :-) Thanks for the assist…
If your wings don't sweep....
Cousins is going to have to go through a transformation
like we’ve seen out of Vince Young this year. I knew VY’s issues had a lot to do with maturing as do Cousins. When Cousins does mature and overcomes his “demons”, LOOK. OUT.
The absence of offensive rebounding and the abundance of turnovers nearly drove me to the insane asylum yesterday. That’s the good thing about a weakness being exposed, now you know what it is and find out how to fix it
And how does UConn’s team compare to last year’s team? I don’t keep up with other basketball teams like I should.
I really think
Wall gets into the minds of our team almost as much as the other team. You see Bledsoe, Dodson and Miller all at times doing things that they just can’t do.
It’s almost like an average golfer (ME) needing to hit a PERFECT 5 iron out of the rough to reach the green rather than just accepting I need to hit a utility wood. I think many of our turnovers are guys trying to do things they just can’t do simply because they saw Wall do it.
The 3 point shooting has been a very pleasent surprise as well as the overall shooting . Am I wrong that this was the first game we’ve shot less than 50? Teams will have a tough time trying to zone us with that kind of outside shooting.
I think if Coach Cal can get these guys to all play under control and within themselves…..and get Cousins head screwed on a little tighter…..this team could make a DEEP run into the tournament. What a difference a year makes!!
Go Cats!!
Un Peu du Déjà Vu
After watching yesterday’s game for a second time I confirmed my feeling of déjà vu. Recollecting the 2008 national semifinal KU vs UNC: KU comes out with uber-intensity, defending maniacally and with torrid shooting, result was a 40-12 lead that led Billy Packer, who should have known better, to declare the game over. At the half the score was a more manageable 44-27 and one knew that UNC would make it closer and they did, reducing the deficit to only 5 before KU regained control and pulled away for a double-digit win. There were considerable similarities yesterday but the major difference was that the Jayhawks were an experienced team that relied on past trials to generate an end of game push while UK is extremely inexperienced and thus had nothing to rely on and nearly lost. Ah, but the good news is yesterday was a deposit in the bank of experience that can be drawn upon in the future. Both those games remind me of a statement of the late Red Auerbach to the fact that a basketball game is comprised of energy waves (physical and mental) — usually resulting in “runs” — and the team that manages to have the most peaks, or correspondingly the least valleys, in those waves wins. He also postulated that that is why you have huge comebacks followed by a so-to-speak empty tank and another large deficit. Yesterday the young Cats came out with surprising intensity and focus but alas couldn’t maintain it and suffered through a lengthy valley. Considering the lack of experience neither we or they should be surprised.
Excellent review by Tru as we’ve come to expect and he makes a point that I noticed in review: The Cats have developed in a remarkably short time span — only 8 games — a dependency on John Wall. In the future that could prove to be a considerable liability and one would hope yesterday’s 11 or 12 Wall-less minutes will prove beneficial. Responsibility for adjusting to a Wall absence seems to me to fall to two players: Bledsoe and Patterson. Bledsoe must learn that he is not John Wall and most likely never will be but does have his own strengths and abilities and should rely on them, and convince his teammates that they can trust him; Patterson, when Wall is not on the floor, must vocally assume a leadership position — something with which I’m not sure he’s altogether comfortable.
One other point, it will take a couple more Calipari-type recruiting classes before UK will be on roster-size talent equality with UNC.
"Learn(ing) without thinking begets ignorance. Think(ing) without learning is dangerous."
-Confucius
FB AP Poll
Bama tops, Horns 2, Gators fall to #5.
"Learn(ing) without thinking begets ignorance. Think(ing) without learning is dangerous."
-Confucius
Tar Heels Learn Lesson
UNC was the one punched in mouth but they responded.
"Learn(ing) without thinking begets ignorance. Think(ing) without learning is dangerous."
-Confucius
They lost but really they won,
UK won but who cares? That is what I got from that article. I am surprised that the NCAA doesn’t clamp down on the media recruiting for the ACC.
spread
does it bother anyone other than me, given some of the questionable calls in the 2nd half (both ways), that the game was so close to the Vegas Spread (3.5)? one could say that the refs were making certain the momentum swung UNC’s way to get things a bit closer. i am not sayin’, i am just sayin’.
i've been waiting for this moment all my life...but it's not quite right.
Well ...
The Vegas oddsmakers are really good.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
I read somewhere once
that the objective of the Vegas oddsmakers was not to produce the best possible prediction of the game outcome, but rather to produce a prediction most likely to result in equal numbers of bettors on either side of the bet.
Record crowd
Does anyone know the exact number.
by BornBlue84 on Dec 6, 2009 5:25 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I don't know Tru, The conspiracy theories may have a point
Watch that last, useless, 3 pointer at the end of the game. If you play it in extreme slo-mo, Tony Soprano kidnaps the UNC player and the shot is made by a new player with Vegas Oddsmaker on the back of his baby blue jersey. What’s worse, an alien appears with a tee-shirt that reads,“You’re all dead in 2012 anyway.” Frightening — I couldn’t even sleep last night.
I don’t know about you, I am stocking up on Spam. Nothin’ more re-assuring than a meat product with a ten year shelf life.
LOL
No matter where you're at, there you are
Being the football fan I am:
Kentucky hosted an army of football recruits at the UNC game. As the saying goes – A rising tide raises all ships. That win went beyond our basketball program, into football and likely beyond. The return to a successful basketball program makes an enormous impact across the entire university.
Cousins
I know it’s early, but I’m a bit more skeptical about Big Cuz than most fans seem to be. The fact is, he hasn’t yet demonstrated that he can compete with major college bigs (out-muscling smaller players doesn’t count). We want to assume that he has a “world of talent” temporarily hamstrung by his attitudinal problems. Maybe so. Hopefully so. But someone should tell him that right now, psychological issues or not, he’s as good as his performance last Saturday says he is.
Hope you folks don’t mind a bit of heresy to spice up the discussion.
Somewhat Agree
I think I know your feeling, hgabenne, but I perceive myself to be a bit more optimistic. I’ve stated previously here that Cousins will present to Calipari his greatest coaching challenge and have observed little to change my mind. There is little doubt that Cousins has the physical attributes — size, strength, manual dexterity, hand-eye coordination, footwork, touch — to be successful: a couple of spin moves and reverse layups are proof. What is problematic is whether he has innate personality to accept the coaching (read: criticism) that will maximize the physical potential. The athletic world is populated with many who haven’t. My optimism derives from two factors: Cousins’ youth, especially his mental/emotional maturity, and Calipari’s record of dealing with such petulance. I must say that Cousins’ response to free throw instruction is an affirmative indicator. The process will be intriguing to observe.
"Learn(ing) without thinking begets ignorance. Think(ing) without learning is dangerous."
-Confucius
jury still out on FT instruction...
After responding affirmatively in the UNC Ashville game (8 of 10, i believe) he promptly bricked his first 4 against UNC, finally making his first on attempt #5……
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Dec 6, 2009 8:57 PM EST up reply actions
Tru?
Just read the reasoning behind your name. I feel as a newcomer to this site, you have chosen wisely. I know this is off topic and alittle scatter brained. But, if any member of A Sea of Blue can help me, I am currently relocated to Orlando, FL and have grown ether board of watching my beloved wildcats with gators fans. If anyone knows a UK fan in the orlando area or an astabloshment dedicated to the cats I would be greatly appreciative. I know it’s kinda weird and maybe crazy, but I need that bond with someone, anyone who shares my passion!
by BornBlue84 on Dec 6, 2009 8:43 PM EST via mobile reply actions
There are a
few of us that live in FL on this site but not sure if any in Orlando. I am in Lakeland and we do have a few Wildcat fans here. You will find them in Orlando. Welcome to Florida and enjoy our great weather.
I think if you make a FanPost
more people will see it. I am moving to the Louisville area soon (and know no one there) and will be making one for myself in a couple months.
I just think a FanPost would be more helpful so i doesn’t get lost in this thread.
GO BIG BLUE!! GO BIG BLUE!!
by UKWildCatFanatic on Dec 7, 2009 1:22 AM EST up reply actions
so "it" doesn't get lost
not i…i know where i am. :p
GO BIG BLUE!! GO BIG BLUE!!
by UKWildCatFanatic on Dec 7, 2009 1:23 AM EST up reply actions
Scary
If Meeks was on this team I would shudder
UL Football Fan/UK Basketball Fan ~ Okinawa, Japan
by The White Mandingo on Dec 6, 2009 9:57 PM EST reply actions
Maturation
Wall is coming along nicely, as the assist percentage trend indicates. Cousins is a different story and we have to hope that he learns to keep his head in the game.
It seems..
when Cousins shoots his FT’s well, he’s playing well. And when his line shots miss, his head isn’t in the game. Something to watch for in the coming weeks.

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