Big Blue vs. Burnt Orange: Comparing Texas' and Kentucky's Victories Over North Carolina

by Glenn Logan on Dec 23, 2009 8:30 AM EST in Kentucky Wildcats Basketball

This is just a quickie this morning before I get to work on the Long Beach St. 49ers pre-game.

John Gasaway at Basketball Prospectus put up this article after the Longhorn's victory over the North Carolina Tar Heels this past weekend. Last night, I watched the game between the Texas Longhorns and the Michigan St. Spartans, and came away even more impressed with the men in burnt orange than I was with their victory over the Tar Heels.

Follow me after the jump for more.

I just want to compare the Four Factors to winning for three games -- the Kentucky Wildcats versus the Tar Heels, Texas versus the Tar Heels, and last night's Texas versus Michigan State:

College Basketball

NCAA Basketball

Looking at these three games, does anything jump out at you? How about the difference in offensive rebound percent? Texas dominated UNC so thoroughly on the glass that words fail me. Kentucky, in their game versus the 'Heels, did not fare as well, actually losing the OR% battle. Michigan State had it much closer the OR% battle with the 'Horns, but the Spartans lost mostly because Texas' defense forced them into only a 50% eFG% while shooting 62% themselves.

But another thing the Longhorns are doing that is even more important -- they are holding teams to an eFG%, on average, of 36.9%, #1 in all of Division 1. Where's Kentucky on that list? #53.

Another thing that you might notice is turnovers. Texas has a 17.2% turnover percentage. That's where UK needs to be, instead of the 23.5% that they currently own.

Now, I know Texas is a more experienced team and, at this point in the season, they should be better than Kentucky, so no big deal there. But lest we think that we are on the road to an NCAA championship with our strong play against the Drexel Dragons the other afternoon, let this be a sobering reminder -- Kentucky still has a lot of improving to do.

I do think the 'Cats can get there, and UK is also a very strong offensive rebounding team -- in fact, even stronger than Texas so far, and #1 in the nation in OR%. But UK has yet to dominate the glass against a quality opponent, and solve the turnover problem. Keep in mind that Texas plays even faster than UK, so the turnover comparison does not suffer from pace issues. UK needs to ramp up the defense, too.

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After watching last night's game Tru,

I admit they are an impressive bunch, but they have holes in their armor too. They can be forced into a lot of turnovers with hard-nosed defense. They dont take care of the ball when pounded.

They do not like it when they get crowded down low. Cousins will have a field day with them if he stays out of foul trouble.

They are not REALLY fast. They play a fast game, but they dont have as much quickness and speed bursts as they need to have. They shoot well, defend well, and they have an excellent post presence.

If someone gets in their face and plays hard defense, and forces turnovers they can be had. Dont think we will see them unless its the last game of the year, but they are a good fundamentally sound basketball team. And they are one of the few teams big enough to play down low with us.

Wall will make the difference with this team. That point guard they have wont be able to keep Wall boxed in.

Remember, we're having fun now!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Dec 23, 2009 10:43 AM EST reply actions

I'm stunned that people at ESPN's recruiting eval service ever ranked Bradley ahead of Wall

Avery Bradley is a talented player, but its obvious he’s a freshman. John Wall could be starting for 2/3rds of the teams in the NBA right now.

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Dec 23, 2009 10:46 AM EST up reply actions

yeah, his play was excellent when he wasnt getting pushed around. Mich St

had the right game plan, they just self-destructed at the end. I honestly thought they had them.

Remember, we're having fun now!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Dec 23, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions

It will be interesting to see how the Longhorns fare

In a tough road game. So far they’ve only been to Iowa and Rice. January 18 @ Kansas and January 23 @ Connecticutt.

However, they look very tough right now.

by BCinVA on Dec 23, 2009 11:00 AM EST reply actions

Kansas/Texas are in opposite divisions they do not play home and homes

Kansas plays at Texas this season.

You’re thinking of Kansas State on the Longhorns schedule. They’ve started strong, but I’m not convinced they have staying power to hang with the Longhorns.

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Dec 23, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions

Caveat

Cousins is playing much, much better now, than when UK played UNC, so I don’t think the Tar Heels would fare nearly as well on the glass if UK and UNC played today.

This team has gotten so much better over the last few weeks … if htey continue at their current rate of improvement they will be scary good, scary soon. RP beware!

by Ken Howlett on Dec 23, 2009 11:09 AM EST reply actions

Sobering :(

by eeluk on Dec 23, 2009 11:30 AM EST reply actions

Physicality And Depth

While UK is relatively deep they do not match either UT or KU in talented depth. Face it, after Orton and Dodson the talent level drops considerably and those two are inexperienced. The real deficit UK faces versus UT (not so much vs KU) is physicality. One would hope that Cats face a physical/rough/tough opponent — perhaps MSU — or two prior to postseason.

"Learn(ing) without thinking begets ignorance. Think(ing) without learning is dangerous."
-Confucius

by Wild Weasel on Dec 23, 2009 12:08 PM EST reply actions

Physicality?

UK’s big men have been beat to death all year. The last thing I would worry about is their ability to withstand/dish-out physical play.

by Ken Howlett on Dec 23, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions

Although

Dexter Strickland is a real man, that’s for sure.

by Ken Howlett on Dec 23, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions

Pittman. Dexter Pittman.

and yes, he’s huge. ; )

To comment briefly on this topic, I will say that I have also watched quite a few of Texas’ games this year (including against Michigan State and UNC) and I am of the opinion that they are definitely FOR REAL. I love our boys, but if we were to go head-to-head right now, well, I wouldn’t really like that all that much. Later on, I’m all for it, but right now, Texas is playing better basketball.

by BigSkyCat on Dec 23, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, Pittman. I'm not sure who Dexter Strickland is :) Maybe Rod's brother.

Texas is playing like the best team in the country right now. I know there are others on this thread who feel the same way, and for good reason.

As much as I hate it, Duke is playing real well now also. Scheyer has been a man among boys lately.

Kansas impresses me, but not as much asTexas. That game (KU v UT) should be marked on your calendar. I’ll go with the home team.

by Ken Howlett on Dec 24, 2009 12:37 AM EST up reply actions

Ken Davis

in an NBC sports write-up, says Texas will be the last undefeated team. He says UK loses @ Florida.

by UK1972 on Dec 23, 2009 12:27 PM EST reply actions

Florida

If the Gators continue down the path they are headed, they may not have a team come January 12.

I was a bit worried about that game, but Donovan might be just dumb enough to try and run with UK, which will spell doom for the Gators.

by Ken Howlett on Dec 23, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

Texas has been impressive

I saw most of their games against UNC and Michigan St and at this point in the season Texas probably should be ranked #1. I still think Kansas will ultimately be better, but the Texas defense is just really good – the way they stopped Lucas last night was impressive.

UK is improving and by the end of the season could be scary themselves, but I would still rather not see Texas in the NCAAT.

3 > 2, except for very large values of 2.

by JLeverenz on Dec 23, 2009 12:36 PM EST reply actions

Bring 'em on.

You can’t be the best if you can’t beat the best. If UK does not go up against UT or KU then the haters will say that is the only reason we won. I do think Texas is the best team I have watched so far.

by kywineman on Dec 23, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions