Austin Peay Governors @ Kentucky Wildcats: Pre-game Analysis
Probably for the next three games, we will be going with the normal pre-game analysis rather than the full-blown in-depth analysis that we do for the big ones like North Carolina and Indiana. Those take hours of work and preparation, and you'll forgive me if I can't always find that kind of time.
Today, the Austin Peay Governors make their way up from Tennessee to take on the Kentucky Wildcats in yet another pre-season tilt. Here is how the Governors have done so far this season:
| Schedule Stats: | |
| Record | 7-4 |
| Record ATS | 5-4 |
| Avg Spread | 4.1 |
| Conf | 18 (60.0%) |
| Non-Conf | 12 (40.0%) |
The Governors have lost to the likes of the Tennessee Volunteers, the IUPUI Jaguars, the North Carolina St. Wolfpack, and the Drake Bulldogs. Their most significant wins have come versus the Akron Zips and the Ohio Bobcats. The Governors play in the Ohio Valley Conference.
It seems like it has been an eternity since the Wildcats have played, but it's only been a week. But week-long breaks will be rare after today's game, so the time has come for the 'Cats to begin to focus on better defensive execution and ballhandling. Hopefully we'll see that today.
More after the jump.
First the roster for the Governors:
Team Statistics:
A quick team comparison:
| Rank/Record | APSU | UK |
| RPI | 72 | 27 |
| SOS | 50 | 195 |
| Overall | 7-4 | 10-0 |
| Conference | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Home | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-0 |
| Away | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Top 25 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| RPI top 50 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
Scouting report via Kenpom.com:
| Scouting Report | |||||
| Kentucky | Austin Peay | D-I (offense) | |||
| Category | Offense | Defense | Offense | Defense | D-I Avg |
| Adj. Efficiency: | 111.2 [40] | 93.1 [71] | 99.8 [179] | 102.7 [204] | 100.0 |
| Adj. Tempo: | 68.7 [173] | 68.7 | 68.0 [202] | 68.7 | |
| Four Factors | |||||
| Effective FG%: | 54.8 [25] | 45.1 [72] | 47.7 [197] | 51.0 [232] | 48.8 |
| Turnover %: | 23.5 [279] | 20.7 [187] | 20.6 [152] | 19.0 [258] | 21.0 |
| Off. Reb. %: | 44.1 [4] | 31.1 [108] | 32.4 [191] | 32.3 [147] | 33.0 |
| FTA/FGA: | 42.8 [78] | 29.2 [50] | 42.4 [83] | 32.4 [87] | 37.5 |
| Miscellaneous Components | |||||
| 3P%: | 38.0 [70] | 36.1 [233] | 35.4 [134] | 38.3 [284] | 34.2 |
| 2P%: | 54.0 [27] | 39.9 [14] | 45.4 [235] | 47.7 [171] | 47.7 |
| FT%: | 66.3 [228] | 65.7 [94] | 67.6 [191] | 69.0 [198] | 68.4 |
| Block%: | 7.8 [105] | 21.1 [3] | 11.5 [282] | 7.0 [241] | 9.1 |
| Steal%: | 10.7 [234] | 10.7 [123] | 10.4 [217] | 7.8 [293] | 10.0 |
| Style Components | |||||
| 3PA/FGA: | 27.1 [277] | 36.1 [266] | 29.7 [240] | 33.7 [199] | 32.6 |
| A/FGM: | 54.0 [165] | 52.4 [146] | 56.2 [123] | 51.5 [130] | 53.7 |
| Defensive Fingerprint: | Inconclusive | Inconclusive | |||
| Point Distribution (% of total points) | |||||
| 3-Pointers: | 22.4 [266] | 35.7 [21] | 25.4 [201] | 31.2 [73] | 27.1 |
| 2-Pointers: | 57.0 [66] | 46.7 [307] | 51.5 [193] | 50.9 [211] | 52.1 |
| Free Throws: | 20.5 [174] | 17.6 [284] | 23.1 [84] | 18.0 [267] | 20.8 |
| Strength of Schedule | |||||
| Components: | 99.0 [234] | 102.2 [272] | 103.0 [85] | 101.3 [237] | 100.0 |
| Overall: | 0.4111 [257] | .5000 | 0.5462 [140] | .5000 | |
| Non-conference: | 0.4111 [266] | .5000 | 0.7187 [42] | .5000 | |
| Personnel | |||||
| Bench Minutes: | 28.9% [232] | 31.9% | 31.7% [176] | 31.9% | |
| Experience: | 0.96 yrs [332] | 1.69 | 1.41 yrs [264] | 1.69 | |
| Effective Height: | +4.0 [11] | 0.0 | -0.7 [225] | 0.0 | |
| Average Height: | 78.7" [7] | 76.6" | 76.3" [225] | 76.6" | |
Analysis:
The Wildcats come into this game on a roll, and so do the Governors, who have won their last five games in a row.
By looking at the Four Factors to Winning, it's pretty easy to see that UK dominates most of these numbers, with the predictable exception of turnover %. At this point in the season, Kentucky's propensity to turn it over has been largely neutralized by some outstanding offensive rebounding. It is also interesting to note that Austin Peay is barely shooting better from the field on average than UK is holding teams to on average, which suggests to me that if UK can improve slightly on their DE number and continue their efficient offense, this game could get lopsided in a hurry.
Also working against the Governors are the fact that they don't put much pressure on Kentucky's biggest weakness, ballhandling. But one thing the Governors do very well is get to the free throw line, which is an area of concern. The Wildcats are not exactly known for being careful about fouls, and too many could turn this game into a much closer contest than the stats say it aught to be.
Another thing that Austin Peay does not do well is guard the three point shot, and they have been worse at it so far than UK has, which is interesting. Hopefully, Kentucky can find a way to improve their three-point defense this game, as it has been on the rise over the last several games.
Austin Peay's best player is Wes Channels, a senior guard who can stroke the three. Anthony Campell is a 6'6" sophomore wing forward who can also light it up from deep. Inside, John Fraley and Marcel Williams clean up most of the boards, and Fraley in particular is a good offensive rebounder.
Projected score: Kentucky 82, Austin Peay 60.
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28 comments
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Comments
Great post as always. Go Cats!!!
I'm not really a expert on anything but I'll give you my advice on everything.
by tippey on Dec 19, 2009 1:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks!
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 19, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone know where you can watch it?
WTH is CSS?
Good Pre-game Tru.
by BBUKFAN on Dec 19, 2009 1:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thank you!
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 19, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
its on espn 360 I think that or justintv.
I'm not really a expert on anything but I'll give you my advice on everything.
by tippey on Dec 19, 2009 2:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks,
I dont see anything on Justintv yet. espn360 may be difficult. Apparently time warner cable is not an authorized “Free” partner with espn360. I havent lost hope yet.
by BBUKFAN on Dec 19, 2009 2:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
http://www.justin.tv/beyondthedoor
I'm not really a expert on anything but I'll give you my advice on everything.
by tippey on Dec 19, 2009 2:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This Won't Be Close
Cats by A LOT today, 25 or maybe 30 point W margin.
by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 19, 2009 2:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree. (What????) Lol ;)
I, too, am looking for a BIG win today. (20+)
…have I mentioned that I have Drexel tickets?? ;)
It is not worth an intelligent man’s time to be in the majority. By definition, there are already enough people to do that.
by kentuckygirl0724 on Dec 19, 2009 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Please don't take this as a violation of
community guidelines #s 1,2, and 8, but PPBBBBBBBBBTTTT!! :-)))
No moral victories--it's all about Ws and Ls!!!
by oldcat'69 on Dec 19, 2009 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Might want to check your math there 40...
My KY math says 21… :-)
If your wings don't sweep....
by EagleTDL on Dec 20, 2009 8:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I Thought It Was 90-59, No?
Maybe my eyesight is off.
by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 20, 2009 9:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
TG for Justin.tv, again.
I fear access to sports is only going to get worse. I’m not even sure everyone in Ky can get this game. It looks like Western Kentucky is pretty much going to have to rely on the internet, too?
No matter where you're at, there you are
by cincyblue on Dec 19, 2009 2:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
once again, i will be at my son's game...
we are actually playing the best 12 and under team in memphis — it will be very ugly — as we got lumped in the wrong bracket.
geoff caulkins wrote on the bk thing in today’s commercial appeal – he cannot let it go that Cal left memphis. i cannot even bring myself to post the link – embracing the hate here in memphis…
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Dec 19, 2009 2:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
UT Vs UNC
Longhorns up 13 at half. UT has unbelieveable depth and are more physical than Heels. KU wasn’t all that impressive although won by 13. Cats certainly look worthy of top 5 ranking.
"Learn(ing) without thinking begets ignorance. Think(ing) without learning is dangerous."
-Confucius
by Wild Weasel on Dec 19, 2009 3:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hey Tru
how can we get Mashburn to be the Y on Monday night when # 2000 rings in?
by UK1972 on Dec 19, 2009 3:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hey!! Great idea...
Ya got my vote!
If your wings don't sweep....
by EagleTDL on Dec 19, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Which raises
another question. Anyone else noticing an apparent lack of interest in “UK” being the first team to 2000? Is it just me or would SI and ESPN and the rest of the national media be ALL over this if were UNC ahead of us?
You can't fix "stupid"!
by UKlvrJM on Dec 19, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When we beat 'UNC head-head
It took all the media interest out of the race… And I’m OK with that!! LOL
If your wings don't sweep....
by EagleTDL on Dec 19, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know ...
… but it would be great to see!
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 19, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FYI if you are looking for TV coverage
Programming guide says the Dish TV (in my area) will carry the game on Channel 447, not pay per view. I will know for sure in about 10 minutes.
by StillCatwoman on Dec 19, 2009 3:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Cal's pregame on coach.cal
said he plans on using Deandre
No matter where you're at, there you are
by cincyblue on Dec 19, 2009 3:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thats awesome
I hope he comes out and plays under control, smart, and killer on d.
by BBUKFAN on Dec 19, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Would be good to see...
He’s done his time, now he needs to be rewarded for his patience
If your wings don't sweep....
by EagleTDL on Dec 19, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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