Austin Peay Governors @ Kentucky Wildcats: Pre-game Analysis

Probably for the next three games, we will be going with the normal pre-game analysis rather than the full-blown in-depth analysis that we do for the big ones like North Carolina and Indiana.  Those take hours of work and preparation, and you'll forgive me if I can't always find that kind of time.

Today, the Austin Peay Governors make their way up from Tennessee to take on the Kentucky Wildcats in yet another pre-season tilt.  Here is how the Governors have done so far this season:

Schedule Stats:
Record 7-4
Record ATS 5-4
Avg Spread 4.1
Conf 18 (60.0%)
Non-Conf 12 (40.0%)

The Governors have lost to the likes of the Tennessee Volunteers, the IUPUI Jaguars, the North Carolina St. Wolfpack, and the Drake Bulldogs.  Their most significant wins have come versus the Akron Zips and the Ohio Bobcats.  The Governors play in the Ohio Valley Conference.

It seems like it has been an eternity since the Wildcats have played, but it's only been a week.  But week-long breaks will be rare after today's game, so the time has come for the 'Cats to begin to focus on better defensive execution and ballhandling.  Hopefully we'll see that today.

More after the jump.

First the roster for the Governors:


Austin Peay Governors Basketball Roster

# Pos. Comments W H College
Justin Blake 32 G Significant contributor 190 6-3 freshman
Caleb Brown 3 G Possible starter 170 6-0 junior
Tyrone Caldwell 5 G Possible starter 170 6-0 sophomore
Anthony Campbell 25 G Starter 185 6-6 sophomore
Wes Channels 22 G Starter 210 6-3 senior
Ernest Fields 10 F - 220 6-6 senior
John Fraley 21 C Starter 220 6-8 sophomore
James Harris 23 G - 150 6-1 sophomore
Eric Mosley 11 G Significant contributor 165 5-10 freshman
Chris Reaves 12 F Role player 200 6-5 freshman
Duran Roberson 42 C Role player 215 6-8 junior
Jim Ross 15 F - 245 6-8 freshman
Marcel Williams 4 F Starter 235 6-6 sophomore

 

Team Statistics:


FG 3PT FT Rebounds Misc
G M M A Pct M A Pct M A Pct Off Def Tot Ast TO Stl Blk PF PPG
Anthony Campbell 11 32.2 4.8 9.7 49.5 2.3 4.6 49.0 3.4 4.0 84.1 0.8 4.1 4.9 1.6 2.8 1.2 0.2 1.4 15.3
Wes Channels 11 32.8 4.3 11.2 38.2 1.9 3.9 48.8 3.6 5.7 63.5 0.8 3.5 4.3 3.4 3.0 1.0 0.0 2.1 14.1
John Fraley 11 25.1 3.3 7.2 45.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 3.5 68.4 3.0 3.9 6.9 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.9 2.6 8.9
Duran Roberson 11 20.5 3.0 5.0 60.0 0.3 1.0 27.3 1.2 2.5 48.1 1.2 2.1 3.3 0.4 1.1 0.2 0.9 2.3 7.5
Marcel Williams 11 27.0 2.8 5.5 50.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.5 63.0 2.0 3.7 5.7 1.4 1.5 0.6 1.1 3.8 7.2
Tyrone Caldwell 11 19.8 2.1 4.3 48.9 0.5 1.3 35.7 1.8 2.5 71.4 0.6 1.5 2.1 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.0 1.0 6.5
Caleb Brown 11 20.8 1.7 4.3 40.4 0.2 1.1 16.7 0.7 1.0 72.7 0.5 2.5 2.9 3.2 1.4 0.7 0.0 1.7 4.4
Justin Blake 11 9.7 1.3 3.5 36.8 0.9 2.8 32.3 0.2 0.5 40.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.6 3.6
Eric Mosley 10 7.6 0.9 2.6 34.6 0.2 1.3 15.4 1.0 1.3 76.9 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 3.0
Chris Reaves 10 7.9 1.1 2.0 55.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 75.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5
Chris Wood 1 3.0 1.0 2.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0

 

A quick team comparison:

Rank/Record APSU UK
RPI 72 27
SOS 50 195
Overall 7-4 10-0
Conference 2-0 0-0
Home 4-1 5-0
Neutral 1-2 4-0
Away 2-1 1-0
Top 25 0-1 2-0
RPI top 50 0-1 2-0

 

Scouting report via Kenpom.com:

Scouting Report

Kentucky Austin Peay D-I (offense)
Category Offense Defense Offense Defense D-I Avg
Adj. Efficiency: 111.2 [40] 93.1 [71] 99.8 [179] 102.7 [204] 100.0
Adj. Tempo: 68.7 [173] 68.7 68.0 [202] 68.7
Four Factors
Effective FG%: 54.8 [25] 45.1 [72] 47.7 [197] 51.0 [232] 48.8
Turnover %: 23.5 [279] 20.7 [187] 20.6 [152] 19.0 [258] 21.0
Off. Reb. %: 44.1 [4] 31.1 [108] 32.4 [191] 32.3 [147] 33.0
FTA/FGA: 42.8 [78] 29.2 [50] 42.4 [83] 32.4 [87] 37.5
Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 38.0 [70] 36.1 [233] 35.4 [134] 38.3 [284] 34.2
2P%: 54.0 [27] 39.9 [14] 45.4 [235] 47.7 [171] 47.7
FT%: 66.3 [228] 65.7 [94] 67.6 [191] 69.0 [198] 68.4
Block%: 7.8 [105] 21.1 [3] 11.5 [282] 7.0 [241] 9.1
Steal%: 10.7 [234] 10.7 [123] 10.4 [217] 7.8 [293] 10.0
Style Components
3PA/FGA: 27.1 [277] 36.1 [266] 29.7 [240] 33.7 [199] 32.6
A/FGM: 54.0 [165] 52.4 [146] 56.2 [123] 51.5 [130] 53.7
Defensive Fingerprint: Inconclusive
Inconclusive
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3-Pointers: 22.4 [266] 35.7 [21] 25.4 [201] 31.2 [73] 27.1
2-Pointers: 57.0 [66] 46.7 [307] 51.5 [193] 50.9 [211] 52.1
Free Throws: 20.5 [174] 17.6 [284] 23.1 [84] 18.0 [267] 20.8
Strength of Schedule
Components: 99.0 [234] 102.2 [272] 103.0 [85] 101.3 [237] 100.0
Overall: 0.4111 [257] .5000 0.5462 [140] .5000
Non-conference: 0.4111 [266] .5000 0.7187 [42] .5000
Personnel
Bench Minutes: 28.9% [232] 31.9% 31.7% [176] 31.9%
Experience: 0.96 yrs [332] 1.69 1.41 yrs [264] 1.69
Effective Height: +4.0 [11] 0.0 -0.7 [225] 0.0
Average Height: 78.7" [7] 76.6" 76.3" [225] 76.6"

 

Analysis:

The Wildcats come into this game on a roll, and so do the Governors, who have won their last five games in a row.

By looking at the Four Factors to Winning, it's pretty easy to see that UK dominates most of these numbers, with the predictable exception of turnover %.  At this point in the season, Kentucky's propensity to turn it over has been largely neutralized by some outstanding offensive rebounding.  It is also interesting to note that Austin Peay is barely shooting better from the field on average than UK is holding teams to on average, which suggests to me that if UK can improve slightly on their DE number and continue their efficient offense, this game could get lopsided in a hurry.

Also working against the Governors are the fact that they don't put much pressure on Kentucky's biggest weakness, ballhandling.  But one thing the Governors do very well is get to the free throw line, which is an area of concern.  The Wildcats are not exactly known for being careful about fouls, and too many could turn this game into a much closer contest than the stats say it aught to be.

Another thing that Austin Peay does not do well is guard the three point shot, and they have been worse at it so far than UK has, which is interesting.  Hopefully, Kentucky can find a way to improve their three-point defense this game, as it has been on the rise over the last several games.

Austin Peay's best player is Wes Channels, a senior guard who can stroke the three.  Anthony Campell is a 6'6" sophomore wing forward who can also light it up from deep.  Inside, John Fraley and Marcel Williams clean up most of the boards, and Fraley in particular is a good offensive rebounder.

Projected score:  Kentucky 82, Austin Peay 60.

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