Kentucky Basketball: Hoosiers in the Rear-View Mirror
I think it is almost universally agreed that the Kentucky Wildcats played its best overall game of the season yesterday afternoon against the Indiana Hoosiers at Assembly Hall in Bloomington.
Working on that assumption, what we want to do now is take a look, statistically, at what went right and why it was better than what the 'Cats have been doing lately. John Calipari was obviously excited about how well the Wildcats played yesterday, for good reason.
So what are some of the things we should be looking for in a good game, statistically speaking? Here are a few of them:
- High effective field-goal percentage;
- Low opponent effective field-goal percentage;
- Low turnovers;
- Good rebounding;
- High number of points from the free throw line.
Those are the things measured in statistics, but what causes these things to happen? Obviously, it's different for each factor, but here are some of the things that have the greatest impact on good basketball:
- Getting into offense early in the shot clock;
- Getting back quickly on defense and preventing easy baskets;
- Good ball distribution in the half-court offense;
- Good ball pressure in the half-court defense;
- Good low-post play on offense;
- Good defensive rotation on defense.
There are more, obviously, but we want to stick with the simple things. All these characteristics are fundamental to winning basketball, and the better you do them, the more likely you are to win. They may seem obvious, but how they interact with each other is less so.
Follow me after the jump for more.
First, the early offense. The reason early offense is important is because it takes advantage of the fact that the defense is usually not properly set up when early offense is initiated -- people are out of position, on the wrong man, or in the process of figuring out where their man is while trying to watch the ball. There are far less distractions on the offensive players, who's sole objective is to score. Early offense is easy offense.
Getting back quickly on defense is an obvious one in preventing your opponent from using his early offense against you. This is particularly important against teams like Indiana who like to play fast. A 2-on-2 or 3-on-3 is an advantage for the offense, particularly if the guards are the ones initiating it. That's why it's important to outnumber the offense when getting back.
Good ball distribution is all about putting players in the best possible position to execute a successful shot on goal. When the ball is moved quickly, forcing defensive reaction, the offense almost always winds up with a quality shot.
Good low-post offense forces the defense to collapse inside, which provides open shots from the perimeter and can force a rapid defensive rotation that leaves a player open in the post. Whenever you force the defense to move out of where they want to be, the offense has a big advantage.
Finally, good defensive rotation is critical. If the defense rotates properly in response to a drive or a pass, it can always be in a position to challenge the shot, especially when you keep in mind which players are most effective from which spots on the floor.
So with all that in mind, let's examine the Four Factors to Winning for the IU/UK game:
As you can see, UK won three of the four factors, and overmatched Indiana completely in the area of offensive rebounding. In fact, that is some of the most dramatic domination on the offensive glass I have seen all year, and is one of the reasons that the Wildcats have been able to overcome turnovers in most games.
Notice that Indiana doubled us up on ballhandling. But that isn't a problem, because anything less than 20% is fine, and anything less than 15% is probably too low for this offense, because as coach Cal has said, it could indicate a lack of aggression.
What this chart does not show you is shots on goal, which is where TO's affect you most. But UK's offensive rebounding was so dominant, it exceeded the turnover difference, and UK still got six more shots on goal than the Hoosiers. Combine that with a higher eFG%, and it's easy to see the UK advantage.
Surprisingly, the 'Cats did not shoot that much better than IU. The Hoosiers had an eFG% of 54.2% versus UK's 58.3%. But notice the free throw discrepancy. That's where Indiana could have made up some ground, but UK also dominated that statistic by a significant margin.
The bottom line is that this graph indicates the following:
- UK shot well, and was very efficient (132.7 OE, 2nd highest of the year).
- UK played relatively poor defense, allowing Indiana 107.7 efficiency and 54.2 eFG%.
- UK took good care of the basketball.
- UK scored from the line comparatively well, but by no means their best performance of the year.
So what made Kentucky so efficient offensively? That's easy -- John Wall. John Wall put in what was easily his best performance, competition considered, so far. He penetrated the lane, forcing rotation, and made great decisions about what to do with the basketball. That put UK in a position to move the ball quickly, or just take the open shot from the first post-penetration pass. It was beautiful offensive basketball.
But what isn't good is that UK allowed a higher OE by Indiana than Kansas, for example, has allowed all year. Now, there is no doubt that the 'Cats have played a tougher schedule than the Kansas Jayhawks so far this year by a wide margin, but it does highlight that Kentucky has a ways to go yet to reach the kind of performance that will truly justify a top five ranking.
What else can we learn? Take a look at this graph:
What this shows is a fairly strong positive correlation between between Wall's assists and and team eFG%, and a moderate negative correlation between Wall's points and eFG%. In everyday terms, it means the more assists Wall has, the more efficient we are offensively. The more points he scores, the less efficient.
As a general proposition, the better Wall passes the ball, the better UK scores, and the more Wall scores, the worse. That's why a great point guard can change the game, and exactly illustrates why the UConn game upset me, and coach Cal as well. Wall was trying to make plays, but by making most of them himself by scoring, he helped make the team less efficient.
Because Wall touches the ball so much, he has to do one thing or the other, not both. You can see that he rarely has high scoring games and high assist games, and vice versa. Look at the Indiana game. High assists, relatively low points, and our second-highest eFG% of the year.
Coach Cal totally gets this, trust me. And I think, now, so does Wall.
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Very nice Tru...
It’s becoming apparent to me, that John Wall will score when ever we need him too…
It’s safe to say that he carried the team when we needed him too. At least until they start learning to trust each other and learning the DDM… IMO
Steelers fan 1st! UK is my 2nd love.
Interesting correlation Tru...
The correlation of Wall’s assists to team eFG% is very interesting, and makes perfect sense. SInce an assist is, by definition always tied to a score, more assists would have to = higher eFG%, correct. If you can choose between a guaranteed assist and a shot (even at a blistering 70% shooting percentage, for instance) you would be, on average, 30% points higher with the assist than the shot.
I wouldn't call it choosing between a gaurenteed assist and a shot though
By passing the ball the assister is choosing to let the other person shoot at whatever percentage they shoot at. The question really because “who has a better shot” and often times it won’t be Wall because he will be better guarded than the rest and if he isn’t being overly guarded then it may be an easy score for him. In the end having him play will help the rest of the team get open looks.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
Teams win games,
not statistics. If you go by your charts we are not 10 and 0. Statistics give a picture of what happened but contribute nothing to what will happen. I cannot accept that a good scoring night for Wall means UK played badly. What is important is how he gets his points.
OKAY, folks, step right up. l'm gonna agree 100% with the wineman,
although I’m a stat lover, too. Let’s say JW got 26 steals at half-court, each leading to a dunk, but otherwise did nothing. No assists, etc. I’d say that was a pretty good game, but his asst:eFG% ratio would be pretty low. All these stats are helpful, just like the tips in golf magazines, if they are used with an understanding of what they mean. But, misapplied, well, just don’t try this at home. (Notice I only gave him 52 points.)
That said, I agree that a JW had his best, so far, college game yesterday as a PG. It was a thrill to watch it. I’m not bothered at all by his relatively low shooting percentage, because, for the most part, he got good looks, but just missed them. Even the best shooters do that from time to time. I’m very impressed, however, by his A:TO ratio, regardless of whether he got zero, one, or two turnovers, because he wasn’t trying to force the action. He let his skill bring the game to him and didn’t try to reach out and grab it. This is getting to be a lot of fun (the nit-picking, I mean. Winning games is always fun.).
No moral victories--it's all about Ws and Ls!!!
Well, I do have a small nit to pick with JW's performance yesterday.
When driving off picks, he doesn’t get close enough to the “picker”, thereby allowing the defensive guy to fight/slide through. I realize there are a lot of reasons for this: he’s used to getting away on his speed and not needing picks; the DDMO doesn’t rely on picks, so they haven’t worked much on it; and most kids these days don’t really know how to set one anyway. I did see several pretty good attempts yesterday just outside the elbows, but most were ineffective because of too much spacing during the drive. A very minor point, so please don’t get out the “half-empty” club and whip me up with it again. I’ve still got bruises from the last time. :-))))
No moral victories--it's all about Ws and Ls!!!
Great point...
“The Rub”, that’s a learned skill, not something that comes natural. The natural tendency of a ballhandler is to stay away from folks; ie keep out of traffic. I’d be willing to be that Strickland will pick up on that in the film sessions and bring it to the guards attention… Bledsoe is guilty of it too.
If they want to see somebody do that manuever right, have ’em watch film of Jodie last year! Couple of times he almost took PPat down as he went past!
If your wings don't sweep....
I am
a botanist by education. Statistics are very important tools in oh so many ways but one can use the same data to prove opposing points. The devil is in the interpretation of the stats. I think the most misleading stat is assists. A point guard can make a beautiful pass down low and the big man goes up and blows the bunny. No assist. A point guard can make a sloppy, nearly picked off pass and the big man catches it off balance, throws up a prayer as he falls, it goes in, bingo you got an assist. You only get the assist when the receiving player completes the play. That does not mean the point guard wasn’t doing his job when the ball doesn’t go in.
One might also argue that anytime your effort puts you into position to score while in possession of the ball, you in effect gave yourself an assist if you complete the play.
Absolutely correct. Assists can be very misleading.
For example, if Wall had both high assists and high turnovers, the turnovers would have negated the impact of the assists. Teams that have better than 1.23 assists to turnover tend to outperform more than with any other single statistic other than turnover margin.
Let’s examine your examples. In the first case, a blown layup, is a high percentage play that failed. The second, a bad pass that leads to a basket is a low-percentage play that succeeds, and the two scenarios have opposite outcomes both in scoring and assists.
But the thing is, the first case is always a positive, even if an assist doesn’t occur. And that assist never could occur if the player making the pass shot the ball instead. In the end, the two kinds of plays tend to negate each other because they are both low-percentage outcomes. For example, which shot would you rather have — a 2-point jump shot from a 54% shooter, or a layup attempt from any shooter? To me, that’s a no-brainer.
The act of getting the ball to teammates in good scoring position almost always results in high assists. But assists can’t measure the quality of the shot that led to it — i.e. was it a layup, or a tough three-pointer? All assists are not equal in their value to the game, even though they all result in a basket.
Given that Kentucky shoots a high percentage from the field as a team, a high assist number by your primary ballhandler is almost always going to be better than a very high number of points from that spot.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
Heh.
Well, if he got that many dunks, I daresay the eFG% would be extremely high. Keep in mind that eFG% is (FGM + 0.5*3PM) / FGA, so any high-percentage shooting is going to increase eFG%. But even if the rest of the team shot very poorly and eFG% was down in the 40’s, that many steals equate to 26 turnovers for the other team, reducing their possessions and forcing them to shoot a correspondingly very high eFG% just to be competitive.
Of course, nobody has that many steals, and no team can survive turning the ball over “live” more than about 12 times, because steals lead to unchallenged baskets. My complaint with Wall has never been about unchallenged layups — those are always, always good.
What isn’t good is when your primary ballhandler is also your primary scorer, like in the UConn game. There, we saw Wall trying to do it all, and the team began standing around. You never want that – it saps energy from the team and makes UK very easy to defend as a team. UConn did not react correctly defensively, and tried to guard Wall man to man, but you can’t do that against a player of his skill — you must double-team or trap and force him to give up the basketball, and make someone else beat you.
In the end, UK needs Wall to keep the team engaged and moving on offense, and Saturday was a perfect example of how a primary ballhandler does that – by putting pressure on the defense, forcing it to rotate, and getting the ball to players who are open. Basketball becomes an easy game when you do that, especially when you have as many skilled players as UK does.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
I understand that the eFG% would be very high,
and his assists would be zero, so the A:eFG% ratio would be very low (infinitely low), as I stated. My point is that taking two or three stats and drawing conclusions about their relationship is dangerous in that it ignores all the other complicated interreactions during the game.
I liked Wall’s play Saturday, but I like for him to score, too, as long as he takes high percentage shots and doesn’t lock out the rest of the team in trying to do so. I don’t think he’s done that too often this year, and he’s definitely (IMO) growing into the complex role that is the point guard position.
I know you guys get tired of hearing all this old stuff, but a long time ago (in a land far, far away?), both guards were responsible for ball-handling as well as shooting. As a matter of fact, even one or both forwards (in the day when there were such things) were expected to be able to lead a fast break. I know it’s hard to believe, but it’s true. Now, would somebody get me my walker so I can go to the bathroom?
No moral victories--it's all about Ws and Ls!!!
and his assists would be zero, so the A:eFG% ratio would be very low (infinitely low), as I stated. My point is that taking two or three stats and drawing conclusions about their relationship is dangerous in that it ignores all the other complicated interreactions during the game.
I missed the A in your argument, sorry. Fair point.
You’re right, you can’t take stats in isolation and prove something. That’s why I used a trend over several games to illustrate it. By using several data points, the other “complex interactions” get washed out. As you will note, my conclusion is not strictly true, and the correlation is by no means perfect, nor could it be — your example shows why.
But by using multiple games like that, we tend to weed out the maxima and minima and look at what is happening repeatedly. Thats why I believe that this illustration works.
I agree that Wall gave a very mature performance on Saturday. What I liked best was his decision-making. I can’t remember a single bad pass he made, and only two bad shots. That’s darn good for a freshman point guard.
The way I see it, the ideal mix of points to assists for a primary ballhandler like Wall is about 2 points per assist. 8 assists/16 points seems a perfect scenario for Wall’s position and skills. He is going to score 8 points minimum on layups almost every game, plus he needs to keep the defense honest by making the occasional jumper. He needs to get to the line at least 3-4 times per game.
Obviously, that could vary if the team is just letting him run through them and lay it in, or are too weak to prevent him from doing so. He should shoot every layup he can get that isn’t heavily challenged, but he does need to keep his teammates involved in the game.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
Statistics don't win ...
… but they usually tell you why the win happened, and why the game played out as it did.
That’s important to know. The stats say nothing about heart, and effort, and even skill. In isolation, they tell you very little.
But when you examine trends, things start to appear, and for the most part, the can be brought to bear on influencing the outcome. If statistics don’t matter, why do coaches keep track of things like deflections, and points off turnovers, and good possessions vs. bad ones? They do that because it helps them understand why the team performed, and it shows the kind of game that most often results in a victory, if they are carefully analyzed. Coaches keep far more detailed statistics than we can find on the Internet, and there is a reason why they do that.
Don’t hate stats. They are an important tool, but that’s all they are.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 13, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
Great analysis
Tru. Really points to what soooooo many folks just don’t seem to be getting about Wall and this team. Saturday’s game was really the first consistent 40 minutes we’ve played on offense. No 5 minute droughts with everyone looking at each other and standing around.
Wall is the point guard on this team. By definition that means he “runs” the offense by distributing the ball to the open person with the best open shot. That really doesn’t happen when you’re forcing things and making turnovers.
Anyone that thinks that was happening through out the previous 9 games just doesn’t know basketball. Not in anyway saying he was being selfish because I haven’t seen anything to indicate he’s a selfish player. Am saying that at times it seems we’ve stood around to see what John would do.
This is great in certain situations but not when it becomes your offense and that’s one of the big reasons I think Coach C was pulling his hair out.
Reading the Courier this morning, I think John also understands this. He was quoted saying he keeps up with his turnovers by asking Asst. Coach Strickland how many he has through out the game.
I think that’s a sign that this kid really does understand that for UK to go deep into the tournament, he has to play a different game than he’s played in some of the first 9.
I think it’s a sign that he realizes that “best of all time” or not, leading UK to a championship is going to mean a whole lot more when he’s 40 than being able to say he led freshmen in scoring in 2009/10.
If the point guard
passes up the best available shot himself has he done his job? He must make split second decisions with the ball and that includes assessing what the defense is giving him as well. Let me use football as an example. You have two great running backs and most of your plays are designed to feature their talents. You still have to pass enough to keep the defense honest so that your running backs have opportunity to make plays. John Wall MUST penetrate enough to keep the defense thinking that is what he is going to do. He must not do it so much that the rest of the team is left out. He is definitely making progress and the IU game showed that. John Wall is part of the offense as well and the biggest decoy we have and he shows signs of getting that. I have not seen any indication that he thinks of himself first.
Oh I agree with
you but it seemed many times in the prior 9 games Wall was forcing things. Saturday he ran the “pick and roll” with Patterson at least twice….penetrated and passed back out to Bledsoe or whoever was open several times.
In past games he seemed to be forcing the penetration and sometimes making the shot but more often making a bad pass or turning the ball over. It seemed like we weren’t running an offense……we were waiting to see what John was going to do. We didn’t see ANY of that Saturday.
To continue with your football analogy….he’s our Joe Montana making the slant pass to RIce for 30 yards instead of forcing the ball into double coverage trying to hit John Taylor. Does he have the talent to hit Taylor?….yes but he’s too smart for that knowing that the sure 30 to Rice is going to score more touchdowns in the long haul.
You have to remember.
John Wall is the primary ballhandler and offense initiator. That means, generally but not exclusively, when he is passing the ball a lot and trying to find the open man, he will get more assists.
What are mutually exclusive, as a general principle, are passes leading to assists by Wall and and shots on goal by him. Wall is a 54% shooter on average, but the more shots he takes, the fewer opportunities he can create for the rest of the team.
The psychological import of this is far greater than the statistical impact. The more Wall gets the team involved, the better and harder they are likely to play. The less he gets them involved and the more shots he takes, the worse. The team will tend to quit moving and watch Wall. It was obvious in the UConn game that was what happened.
It’s easy to conclude that Wall is “doing what is necessary,” but that is, in the context of the team, a fallacy in most cases. What is necessary is for him to keep the team engaged offensively, and to do that he has to take less shots. That’s what we saw on Saturday, and that’s when he is at his best. That’s because of his position as the primary ballhandler and initiator of the offense.
Basketball, to some extent, is a zero-sum game – not strictly, of course, but there are only so many possessions and so many outcomes possible. An assist by definition is a pass that leads directly to a basket, most often by virtue of an open shot, which is generally a much easier and higher-percentage basket than a good one-on-one move. Not only that, it generally consumes less energy, is inherently more efficient, and keeps the team fully engaged.
The benefits of good passing go far beyond the benefits of one person shooting a high percentage, it’s just not obvious that it should. As with all team games, the more engaged the group is as a team, the better they play.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 13, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
Did anyone notice JW's demeanor?
I think this is the only game where I never saw Wall smile, especially as he left the game at the end. This was a hard game for him to play; he’s usually the the flash, the big scorer and leaving people thinking he’s the second coming based upon his individual efforts and accomplishments. In this game he played a true college point guard and played it fantastic. I think it will take a little time for him to realize THIS is the role he needs to play and this is the Cal-Aid he needs to drink. It will be interesting over the next few games if he reprises this role and begins the relish his place in the DDMO. Watch for the smile.
I'm not sure his not smiling as he left the game was an indicator
that he wasn’t pleased, but I think he is an intelligent basketball player and I am sure he realizes that if his team does well and advances far into the NCAA tournament then he will get more recognition than he would if he scores a lot of points while his team loses.
I think that's right.
Wall is learning, and fast. That is great to see.
Big scorers are a dime a dozen. Truly great players make the team better, and take the easy scores when they are there. John made his team better Saturday, and for my money, was a truly great player in that game.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 13, 2009 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
Putting It All Together
That’s a rather accurate description of the ASoB comments, Tru’s numbers and yesterday’s performance of the Cats. This would seem to be the place to add to my precursory comments posted in the post mortem and after only one viewing:
1) The reason for the offensive efficiency was due in great part to understanding and execution of the DDMO and yet there is much to learn.
2) After the 18-0 run UK appeared to just toy with the Hoosiers yet still executed better than expected which is proof to me that there is a surprising level of confidence.
3) Cats were for the most part stronger in holding their position under the boards which partially explains the large disparity in rebounds but one can’t overlook the athletic advantage UK enjoyed in the front court.
4) It appears to me that no one is enjoying this more than Patrick Patterson. He appears to be a man at peace with his decision and his situation. No one is more deserving either.
A second and third (cursory) viewing wasn’t all that revelatory of new insights but does provide for expanding on the above and some of the comments of others.
Most likely — as pointed out by many and the numbers — this was John Wall’s best performance as a point guard but not necessarily his best game. IU’s defense contributed greatly to that since they noticeably shaded him at every opportunity thus influencing him to pass to an unguarded player with Bledsoe being the principal recipient. A better understanding of the DDMO by the team placed players in the most advantageous position to receive those passes.
UK’s rather total domination of the boards was, I now believe, more a testament to IU’s inadequacies than UK’s improved technique and execution — not to say there wasn’t progress in those areas — but Hoosiers are woeful in size, strength and athleticism inside and I would expect them to be carom challenged throughout the Big 10 season.
Focusing on UK’s defense reveals more imperfections than I expected, both in individual techniques and in team help and rotation. It is obvious that the younger players are still relying on their athletic abilities rather than sound fundamentals but that is quite the usual and no doubt will improve. It’s interesting to note that Ramon Harris makes up for the lack of super athleticism with good techniques — the product of experience and coaching.
Although pure conjecture I would venture to say that Daniel Orton is thinking too much rather than relying on his instincts and physical talents. Focusing on him — not easy or definitive on TV — one can almost detect a millisecond pause in his responses and movement, a sure indication of lack of confidence.
On the subject of using screens — “rubs”, if you will — it should be noted that the DDMO by its very nature eschews screens. That obliges us fans to view the game differently and one can just imagine the difficulties it presents to players who’ve been taught the importance and necessity of screens from the earliest years.
Finally, surely the questions of Patrick Patterson’s decision to return for another year of college basketball can now be laid to rest — serious injury notwithstanding. There should be no doubt even at this early stage that the DDMO has and will improve his standing in the draft.
"Learn(ing) without thinking begets ignorance. Think(ing) without learning is dangerous."
-Confucius
Going back to my comment on JW's not getting close enough to "rub",
I’m not sure players are taught the basics of screen/pick and roll the way they used to be. If they are by their early coaches, then the “peer coaching” that takes place during pick-up games, AAU play, and viewing ESPN PsOD probably all undermine their belief in the basic efficiency of what used to be viewed as a fundamental play.
I’m not around developing players enough to be certain of my beliefs; I just watch the results, and I don’t see the pick-and-roll or even effective shooting screens being used by teams with the most talented players. Teams with lesser athletes have to rely on that type of “teamwork” play to get open and generate drive opportunities. I can neither confirm nor deny the virtue of the change, I just see it. As athletes have gotten more capable and focused on one sport, individual plays are on the rise and teamwork plays are on the decline. Mark it as opinion, but we all have one (or more).
I couldn’t agree more about staying helping PPat. His newly-displayed ability to shoot from (near) the perimeter will no doubt help him in the draft.
No moral victories--it's all about Ws and Ls!!!
From Kenpom.com
Effective field goal percentage (eFG%) = (FGM + 0.5*3PM) / FGA
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 13, 2009 11:09 PM EST up reply actions

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