Kentucky Wildcats vs. Miami (OH) Redhawks -- Pre-game Analysis

We continue with four straight days of Kentucky Wildcats sports today with men's basketball -- the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks.

In this post, I'll be breaking down the game (insofar as possible with the very few games played so far) and look at what we can expect from the RedHawks this evening in Rupp Arena.

The RedHawks have played one official game so far this year, and two pre-season exhibitions, just like Kentucky.  The RedHawks won both exhibitions, but lost their opener to Towson State, 82-71.  In that contest, Miami had the lead early in the second half, but turnovers and excellent Towson free-trhow shooting ultimately doomed the RedHawks, and Towson shot 58% eFG for the game to pull away in the second half.

Last season, the RedHawks were 17-13 for the season and 10-6 in the MAC Eastern Division.  Miami returns 9 players from last year, losing 5.  The RedHawks and the Wildcats have met 23 times previously, with Kentucky prevailing in 20 of those contests.  The last time the RedHawks defeated the Wildcats was in 1927.

A further analysis after the jump.

Roster

Statistical analysis (courtesy of KenPom.com)

You will notice that I highlighted the difference in point distribution 3-pointers.  Miami takes many more than Kentucky, which is no surprise to anyone.

At this early juncture, these stats aren't terribly meaningful, but directionally, the do give us some indication of what to expect.  In their first game this season, Kentucky was very inefficient offensively, but they shot the ball well from 2 and did a very good job of rebounding the basketball, as you would expect from the taller Wildcats.

Tonight we should see pretty much the same sort of thing as we saw versus Morehead, only Miami does not have a player that is as accomplished or athletic as Kenneth Faried.  Miami is mostly a man-to-man team, but I would expect to see some zone from them tonight.

As you can see by their tempo statistic, in their first game they ran a bit more than Morehead wanted to do against UK.  Miami may well try to slow the tempo to prevent the more athletic 'Cats, and particularly John Wall, from turning the game into a track meet that they cannot win.  But Miami likes to play faster than the Eagles, and it will be interesting to see how much they try to combat that tendency.

Kentucky is far bigger, stronger and athletic inside, and that will probably equate to a big rebouding edge for the 'Cats, particularly if the Redhawks try to use a sagging man defense against Kentucky, as I expect.  Miami does not take very good care of the ball (or at least, they haven't so far), so assuming UK turns the ball over less with John Wall in the game, as is widely expected, Kentucky could exploit Miami turnovers for some easy points.

This early in the season, detailed analysis is really hard, but I would expect Kentucky to try some different things versus the sagging defenses than mindlessly throwing up the always-available three-pointer that UK is going to see a lot of this year.  It will be interesting to see how the coaching staff adjusts to the UK weakness shooting the ball from the outside.