Kentucky vs. Mississippi State: Breaking Down the Bulldogs
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PrintWith Kentucky sitting at 4-3 (1-3 in the SEC) and dates with Eastern Kentucky and Vanderbilt to follow, tonight's 7:00 p.m. EST game at Commonwealth Stadium versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-5, 1-3) carries with it tremendous ramifications. A UK win will put the 'Cats clearly in the drivers seat to gain at least seven victories, which should translate into an upgraded bowl game (hopefully one not played in the state of Tennessee). Lose, and UK will be faced with having to beat Georgia on the road or Tennessee at home, in order to attain the magical seventh victory.
New Mississippi State head coach (and former Florida offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach) Dan Mullen has breathed much-needed oxygen back into the lungs of the Bulldog football program with an exciting brand of offense (he employs a spread-option look), and a defense that can most aptly be described as a work in progress. And after averaging only 15.2 points per game and 274.9 yards of offense in Sylvester Croom's swan song at State last season, Mullen has rewritten the playbook in 2009 to the tune of 100 more yards of offense per contest, and just over 11 more points per game.
For a closer look at what promises to be a nip-and tuck affair, and an examination of how the two contestants stand within the SEC, as well as a complete breakdown of the Mississippi State Bulldogs, join me after the jump:
Statistical Comparison -- UK vs. MSU (SEC rank in parenthesis)
UK MSU
Points Per Game -- 26.1 (9) 26.4 (8)
Scoring Defense -- 23.0 (8) 24.6 (9)
Total Offense -- 337.3 (9) 371.1 (7)
Total Defense -- 352.3 (8) 357.4 (9)
Rush Offense -- 186.3 (5) 203.1 (5)
Rush Defense -- 174.1 (12) 142.2 (7)
Pass Offense -- 151.0 (11) 168.0 (10)
Pass Defense -- 178.1 (8) 215.1 (10)
Kick Return Avg. -- 23.0 (7) 24.7 (4)
Punt Return Avg. -- 13.4 (3) 10.5 (5)
Interceptions -- 8 (7) 11 (2) Four returned for a touchdown
Punt Avg. -- 35.3 (6) 34.0 (9)
Kickoff Coverage -- 40.8 (7) 41.5 (6) Net Averages
Sacks By -- 12 (10) 13 (9)
Sacks Against -- 7 (2) 12 (7)
3rd Down Conversion -- 8.2% (9) 33.9 (10)
Opp. 3rd Down Conv. -- 43.1 (12) 33.6 (7)
Turnover Margin -- --1 (t7) -- 5 (10)
Red Zone Score% -- 86.4 (7) 78.6 (10)
Red Zone TD% -- 72.7 (2) 46.4 (9)
Red Zone Def/Scores -- 73.1% (4) 82.1% (8)
UK/MSU Players in SEC Top 10
Rush Yards Per Game -- MSU RB Anthony Dixon is 3rd -- 107.7; UK RB Derrick Locke is 5th -- 70.7.
All-Purpose Yards Per Game -- UK's Locke is 3rd -- 144.0; MSU WR Leon Berry is 8th -- 121.8; MSU's Dixon is 9th --112.1.
Touchdowns Scored -- UK ATH. Randall Cobb is 2nd -- 9; MSU's Dixon is 3rd -- 7.
Points Per Game -- UK's Cobb is 5th -- 7.7.
Reception Yards Per Game -- UK's Cobb is t6th -- 4.0.
Passing Yards Per Game -- MSU QB Tyson Lee is 10th -- 140.8.
Kick-Off Return Avg. -- MSU's Berry is 5th -- 26.3.
Punt Return Avg. -- UK's Cobb is 2nd -- 13.6.
Tackles Per Game -- UK LB Micah Johnson is t8th -- 7.9; MSU LB Jamar Chaney is 10th -- 7.2.
Tackles For Loss -- UK DL Corey Peters is t5th -- 7.5; MSU DL Pernell McPhee is t5th -- 7.5.
Sacks -- UK's Peters is t7th -- 4.0.
Interceptions -- MSU DB Jonathan Banks is 1st -- 4; MSU DB Corey Bloomfield is t4th -- 3; UK DB Calvin Harrison and LB Sam Maxwell are t8th -- 2.
Passes Defended -- UK's Maxwell is 2nd -- 9 (7 breakups and two interceptions); UK DB Randall Burden is 5th -- 8 (seven pass breakups and one interception).
Meet the Offensive Dogs
Tyson Lee -- 5'10", 200 lb senior quarterback: The diminutive signal-caller has thrown for 1,126 yards on 102-172 passing (59.3%). Lee has thrown only three touchdown passes, and has nine interceptions. He's also carried the ball 54 times for 163 yards, and two touchdowns -- Last season versus UK, Lee threw for 261 yards and two touchdowns (one interception) on 26 of 42 passing.
Lee threw three picks in Mississippi State's 29-19 loss to Florida last weekend. For his career, in 16 starts, Lee has thrown 14 interceptions and 10 touchdowns. He performed very well against a good Georgia Tech team, though, going 20-30 for 278 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Against Houston, Lee ran for 68 yards on 12 carries (5.7 yards per carry). Lee is highly mobile and is willing to take risks, whether it be with his arm or his legs.
Chris Relf -- 6'3", 235 lb sophomore quarterback: On the year Relf has completed 15 of 26 passes (57.7) for 213 yards. He's tossed three touchdown passes and two interceptions. He has also rushed 41 times for 232 yards (5.7 ypc), and one touchdown.
Relf, coming off an injury, has missed MSU's last two games. He will probably see some playing time tonight, though, if only as a change-of-pace for the Bulldog offense. As with Lee, Relf is adept at scampering away from pressure, and/or running the option game with aplomb.
Anthony Dixon -- 6'1", 235 lb senior running back: Dixon has rushed for 749 yards on 149 carries (5.0 ypc), and seven touchdowns. He's also caught seven passes for 36 yards (5.1 yards per reception).
Dixon, the No. 1 rusher in Mississippi State history, has run for 3,352 yards in his career, and 37 touchdowns. He also ranks 15th in SEC history in rushing yards. He's run for over 100 yards five times this season, with a season-high 135 yards (and two touchdowns) against Middle Tennessee State. Dixon nearly matched that output versus Houston, with 134 yards and another two touchdowns -- Last year against UK, Dixon rushed 15 times for 48 yards (3.2 ypc): In '07 versus Kentucky, he ran for 75 yards on 25 carries (3.0 ypc).
Dixon is a powerful, yet very quick running back. He can run through the middle, or, he'll beat you to the edges with his 4.5 - 40 speed. With UK giving up 174 ground yards per game, Dixon poses the biggest threat to 'Cat fans having a hauntingly good Halloween. If UK's middle linebacker Micah Johnson can't go this evening, backup Ronnie Sneed will have his hands full ... hopefully full of Dixon's jersey.
Christian Ducre' -- 6'0", 200 lb senior running back: This season Ducre' has rushed 42 times for 254 yards (6.0 ypc), and one touchdown. He's also caught eight passes for 124 yards (15.5 ypr), and one touchdown -- Versus UK in 2007, Ducre' had a huge day, running for 119 yards on only 19 carries (6.3 ypc).
Arnil Stallworth -- 5'9", 205 lb senior running back: Stallworth has rushed 23 times for 92 yards (4.0 ypc), and caught eight passes for 112 yards (14.0 ypr) -- Versus Kentucky last year, Stallworth caught eight passes of 71 yards (8.9 ypr).
For his career, Stallworth has rushed the ball 81 times and caught 55 passes. A poor man's Rafael Little, he has amassed 550 receiving yards to 300 rushing yards. Obviously he's versatile, and UK's defense, especially LB's Sam Maxwell and Danny Trevathan, must know where Stallworth is on every play.
Robert Elliott -- 6'0", 210 lb sophomore running back: Elliott has run for 110 yards on 31 carries (3.5 ypc), and one touchdown.
Coming out of high school, Elliott was the No. 8 rated running back in the country by Scout.
Chad Bumphis -- 5'10", 195 lb freshman wide receiver: Bumphis, MSU's leading receiver as a true freshman, has caught 24 passes for 270 yards (11.2 ypr), and three touchdowns. He has also returned five kick-offs for a 25.4 yard per return average.
Bumphis was rated the No. 16 wide receiver prospect in the nation last year by Rivals, and the No. 109 ranked prospect overall. He was heavily recruited (including by UK) by such powers as Alabama, LSU, Florida, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. For his career at Tupelo High School in Mississippi, he had 2,034 receiving yards, 1,348 rushing yards, and 568 passing yards.
Since a six catch, 123 yard (one touchdown) performance against Georgia Tech earlier in the year (three game ago), Bumphis has made only eight catches for 78 yards.
Leon Berry -- 6'0", 195 lb junior wide receiver: The JUCO transfer has played quite well in his first year with the Dogs, making 14 catches for 170 yards (12.1 ypr). He also serves as MSU's primary punt and kick returner: Eight punts returned for 67 yards (8.4 ypr), and 28 kick-offs returned for a 26.3 yard average (one touchdown).
Berry, a Second Team JUCO All-America, caught 59 passes for 1,003 yards and nine touchdowns for East Mississippi Community College last season.
Brandon McCrae -- 6'4", 205 lb senior wide receiver: The Morehead State transfer has snagged 11 passes for 97 yards (8.8 ypr).
As a freshman at Morehead, McCrae led the team in receiving with 28 receptions for 361 yards (12.9 ypr) and one touchdown.
O'Neal Wilder -- 6'5", 215 lb redshirt freshman wide receiver: Wilder has caught 10 passes for 140 yards (14.0 ypr).
Coming out of high school, Wilder ran a 4.5 - 40, and ran a state (MS) best 48.3 in the 400 meters.
Marcus Green -- 6'1", 235 lb sophomore tight end: Green has made 21 catches or 258 yards (12.3 ypr) and two touchdowns.
Meet the Defensive Dogs
Jamar Chaney -- 6'1", 240 lb senior linebacker: Chaney is MSU's leading tackler with 58 (24 solo), to go along with 3.0 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, one interception, two pass breakups, and two quarterback hurries -- Against UK in '07, Chaney, playing on a bum ankle, recorded three tackles; Versus Kentucky in '06, he made six tackles.
Released from his scholarship by Georgia prior to his freshman season, Chaney has made the most out of the change: For his career he's made 256 tackles, with 14.0 tackles for loss. He missed all but one game of the 2008 season because of a broken leg.
K. J. Wright -- 6'4", 215 lb junior linebacker: Wright has executed 55 tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, and 2.0 sacks -- Last season versus UK, Wright recorded seven tackles.
Pernell McPhee -- 6'4", 275 lb junior defensive lineman: McPhee leads the Bulldogs with 7.5 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks, and five quarterback hurries. The JUCO transfer from Itawamba (MS) CC, has recorded 33 tackles (21 solo).
Another major junior college talent, McPhee was heavily recruited by Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Illinois, Michigan and West Virginia. In his two-year JUCO career, he sacked the quarterback 33 times.
Chris White -- 6'3", 245 lb junior linebacker: Yet another JUCO transfer, White leads the team with 29 solo tackles (48 overall). He also has 3.5 tackles for loss, and one pass breakup.
White was First Team JUCO All-America last season out of Mississippi Gulf Coast CC. In his two years on the JC circuit, he recorded 204 tackles, four interceptions and four fumble recoveries (two returned for TD's).
Jonathan Banks -- 6'2", 170 lb freshman defensive back: Another true freshman contributor, Banks leads the SEC with four interceptions, with two "pick-sixes." He's made 16 tackles (11 solo).
Banks was considered the No. 63 "athlete" prospect out of high school by Rivals, and the No. 69 safety by Scout. He runs a 4.6 - 40.
Corey Bloomfield -- 5'10", 170 lb redshirt freshman defensive back: Bloomfield has made 13 tackles (9 solo), and picked-off three passes. He also has one pass breakup.
Bloomfield has some hops -- 34.1 inch vertical -- and some speed -- 4.5 - 40. He was rated the No. 56 cornerback prospect out of high school by ESPN.com.
Dog Biscuits
Florida ran for 249 yards against MSU last week ... Florida quarterback Tim Tebow was 12-22 with two interceptions ... Auburn's Ben Tate and Onterio McCalebb rushed 36 times for 271 yards (7.5 ypc) against the Dogs in Auburn's 49-24 win versus State ... MSU held Auburn quarterback Chris Todd to only 10-23 for 186 yards ... Georgia Tech running back Jonathan Dwyer (2008 ACC Player of the Year) ran 16 times for 83 yards (5.2 ypc) in a 42-31 Jacket win versus MSU ... Yellow Jacket quarterback Josh Nesbitt threw for 266 yards and one touchdown, on 11-14 passing against the Bulldogs ... Houston Cougar running back Bryce Beall ran 15 times for 94 yards (6.3 ypc) and one touchdown in a 31-24 Cougar victory over State ... Cougar quarterback Casey Keenum threw for 434 yards and four touchdowns on 39-52 passing ... MSU lost to then-No. 7 LSU, then-No. 25 Georgia Tech, No. 1 Florida, and Houston, by an average of 8.0 points per game ... UK is 9-10 against MSU since 1990, but the 'Cats have won three of the last four contests ... MSU head coach Dan Mullen has coached No. 1 NFL pick Alex Smith (Utah), 6th round draft choice Josh Harris (Bowling Green University), former Florida quarterback Chris Leak, and current Gator QB Tim Tebow.
CliffsNotes Analysis
Tonights match-up promises to be a tight one -- Both team run the ball exceptionally well, yet neither defense stops the run with consistency. Both teams struggle with the passing game ... both offensively, and defensively. Both teams have an indispensable running back (Locke and Dixon), and both teams have indispensable hybrid athletes (Cobb, and a combination of Berry, Stallworth, and Bumphis).
Because of the "even-Steven" nature of the two combatants, turnovers and special teams could be the deciding factor in this most important of contests. UK Punter Ryan Tydlacka must (consistently) be on his game tonight, the 'Cat ball carriers must hold the pigskin smartly, and the coverage unit must fill their gaps, or risk costing the 'Cats the victory.
I'm sure coach Mullen has seen the tape of UK's victory over Auburn, and took note of the emasculation of the Tiger offense at the hands of the UK defense. So 'Cat fans, expect some Mullen creativity in an effort to foil the Wildcats' bid to shut down the State offensive attack. UK, as they did so well against Auburn, must "stay home" and fill the lanes, or it could be a long, cold, night of fear in Lexington.
Fearless Prediction
Kentucky 27 Mississippi State 24
Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats!
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Once again, Ken -- great post
These teams are evenly matched.
But I want to vent, a little.
Let’s talk about respect again. The game won’t be televised here in the Kentucky diaspora called Cincinnati. ESPNU is scheduled to broadcast Arkansas (3-4, in the weaker Western Division) versus a non-conference foe. Meanwhile UK plays an SEC team with bowl implications. A game that will probably go down to the final minutes. Quite frankly, I haven’t seen much benefit from this SEC/ESPN marriage, where UK football is concerned. Why? Respect. I know that’s got to be earned.
No matter where you're at, there you are
By the way
Arkansas’ opponent? — Eastern Michigan. One of five teams without a win.
No matter where you're at, there you are
You'll now get every SEC game on TV (except the ones you don't)
an associate AD at an SEC school put it this way:
“Never before has every game that a league has control over been guaranteed to be televised. That’s why the SEC deal is so revolutionary.”
“This contract takes the SEC into the realm of the NFL. Every NFL game is being televised in some part of the country. Now, every SEC game, if it’s being played in an SEC stadium, will be televised. The only exception to that is each team has the opportunity to pay-per-view one game a year if the school wants to do one. But the SEC and ESPN will be the ones to decide which game that will be.”
So, there you go. If the conference has the rights to the game, and the game hasn’t been chosen to be pay-per-view only, and you live in the right part of the country, you will see the game on TV. Or maybe that’s only if you subscribe to a digital cable package with hundreds of channels.
I’m just curious: are there greater or fewer UK conference games televised by over-the-air broadcast within the state this year vs. last year?
Anyway, there’s great detail (which I haven’t read) here:
http://www.secsports.com/news/unprecedented-espn-agreement.aspx
televised games before and after
I don’t live in-state, and I can’t verify this info, but here’s what I found. Please correct me if I’m mistaken.
NOTE: But I can’t really tell what’s going on with the new “SEC Network” for over-the-air broadcasts.
NOTE: I made the assumption that ESPN & ESPN2 are more broadly available in less expensive cable TV packages than are ESPNU and FSS. Not certain that is true.
last season: 4 non-conference games
0 national broadcast tv
1 local broadcast tv (WKU)
1 televised on national cable tv (Louisville)
0 cable tv extended package ?
2 not televised? (Norfolk St; MTSU)
this season: 4 non-conference games:
0 national broadcast tv
0-1 local broadcast tv (possibly EKU)
0 televised on national cable tv
1 special negotiated deal (Insight Cable, local broadcast? Louisville game)
2 cable tv extended package (Miami; La-Monroe; also UL)
0 not televised
last season: 8 conference games
1 national broadcast TV (Alabama on CBS)
3 local broadcast TV (SC, FLA, GA)
2 national cable TV (Vandy; TN)
1 cable TV extended package (Ark on ESPNU)??
1 not televised? (Miss St)
this season: 8 conference games
0 national broadcast TV (so far)
1 local broadcast TV (Alabama)
1 national cable TV (Florida on ESPN2)
3 cable TV extended package (Auburn on ESPNU; SC MSU on FSS?)
not televised?
3 TBD (Vandy, GA, TN)
okay, one more and then I'll stop
Straightforward comparison of TV coverage for last Saturday in October, 2008 v 2009.
The verdict: for folks with basic cable or broadcast-only, there is no change (assuming SEC Network overlays the old Raycom geography); but if you have a digital cable package with ESPNU, FSS, CSS, you are seeing more games.
Florida vs. Georgia
2008 CBS 2009 CBS
Tennessee vs. South Carolina
2008 ESPN2 2009 ESPN
Auburn vs. Ole Miss
2008 Raycom 2009 SEC Network
UK vs. Ole Miss
2008 PPV 2009 FSS
LSU vs. Tulane
2008 PPV 2009 PPV
Arkansas non-conf game
2008 no tv 2009 ESPNU
Additional non-conf game
2008 Alabama – Ark St PPV
2009 Vandy – Ga Tech CSS (Comcast)
ESPN360.com
If yu want to watch the Dawgs bet the Wildcats, just get on your puter and go to ESPN360.com and watch it live! Just follow the instructions and enjoy. its free!
fox sports south...
on comcast in memphis……
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Oct 31, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice post
Ken, obviously not a Wildcat fan, but I just wanted to comment. This was a very well written, very informative article. Great job.
To cincyblue, what did you expect? You, like us, are lower level SEC teams. Did you expect this agreement to really benefit all teams equally.
I never mentioned equality, equality is a pie in the sky myth in the real world.
Take a look at my first post. Respect has got to be earned. When UK gets it, as well as your program, the Arkansas UEM game would be rubbish. ESPN’s coverage is their choice. I spoke to respect. That translates into interest. Neither of our programs has it, yet. With all due respect, I hope we get to be interesting, first. :)
No matter where you're at, there you are
really nice article, Ken
Do you think 7 wins will be enough? Weren’t we 7-5 two years ago when we played FLST. in Nashville? I know Vandy had six last year in the game, but I think eight might be a better looking number.
I left TN and now I am back in the Bluegrass... just in time for Football and Keeneland! Life is great!
......if we want to escape my former state of residence this year.
I left TN and now I am back in the Bluegrass... just in time for Football and Keeneland! Life is great!
by sleepytimetea on Oct 31, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: sleepytime
Well, I’m hoping seven wins will get UK out of Tennessee :) How the other SEC teams fare will have a lot to do with UK’s bowl game, if one is indeed forthcoming.
Thanks for the kind words!
not sure on 7 getting us out of TN there KH????
think it will take that magic 8-ball…..
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
i know its cliche...
but this is a really important game in my mind…
i know ul was important – first game and instate rival
i know auburn game was important – key was to go at least 1-1 vs usc/auburn and given loss to usc we needed at auburn
i know ulm was important – need to avoid losing a "trap"game…
however, today is a chance to lay the ground work for a 7+ win season, at home, against a team we are “suppose” to beat if we are to go to the next level.
i know losing will not end our bowl streak and that we will still be in a position to go to a TN bowl. anyway, i hate to sound cliche, but this could be the most important game in the last few years as far as establishing how far we have come…..
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Oct 31, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions
Great post Ken
We can do this. Great fearless prediction…GO CATS !!!
Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!
Rainy Night In Commonwealth........
Cats prevail 28-20…..Cobb only scores 75% of our points…..
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
Good Work + Herbstreet
Appreciate the work necessary to put together such a post, thanks. On another subject, this morning on GameDay Kirk Herbstreet opined – and I agree – that Vols were on their way to rivaling Gators and Tide for SEC supremacy and that if you wanted to beat them better do it soon. Cats best break streak this year or it might be another quarter century.
"Learn(ing) without thinking begets ignorance. Think(ing) without learning is dangerous."
-Confucius
I am not sure they wont be too tough by the time we get to them.....
they will have had a full season under Kiffin and his bag of tricks by then.
Side Note: Most touchdowns scored by any UK player in a year in any way?Anyone know
Will Cobb break the record??
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
Hopefully we will
see the staff have some designed plays for Newton to run the ball. The coaches have to utilize his overall talent more. If Micah can’t play, it could be a long night in Lexington.
Brooks seems to have a lot of confidence in Micah's backup - Sneed
Maxwell will help support him and we should be able to control the middle of the line where Sneed will play. I agree Newton should be used to run a little more, he will be a good running threat when he develops so it might as well start now. I expect him to get a little better handle on his passes tonite since he’s had two games to adjust to the game speed from high school.
OH NO!!!
Kentucky not on TV here (except at the bars). Guess I’ll listen while watching TN/SC and TX/OSU or USC/OR….. AND the kids want to go out for Halloween. I see a marriage test on the horizon. Hmmmm…take the laptop to a bar w/wi-fi and find a new place to live?
speaking from experience.....it would probably be easier to consult with every friend you know
with every type of satellite system…..one of them will have it…..maybe….unless they dont…..marrieage counseling isnt SO bad…..assuming you dont mind being wrong about everything you ever did in your life….and will do…..
Remember, we're having fun now!!!
fox sports south
on comcast in memphis….
only one rule in my house - uk has to be your favorite college bball team
by memphis wildcat on Oct 31, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions
our cable provider in their infinite wisdom
offers fox sports atlantic, pacific and southwest (we’re in Arkansas). Can’t wait til they don’t show a Razorback game and the _ hits the fan. I’d write a letter to the editor but the same guy owns the paper and the cable.
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