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Kentucky vs. Alabama: Can It Be Done? Why, Yes!

UK doesn't want to see a whole lot of this on Saturday.

More photos » Butch Dill - AP

UK doesn't want to see a whole lot of this on Saturday.

There are some games that define a season.  I believe this game is one that will define the Wildcats for 2009.

Let me preface this piece by saying that I don't think UK is likely to defeat the Crimson Tide.  I hope they do, and I will be pulling very hard for them, but I am not so much into self-delusion that I go in with high hopes.  But at the same time, I do have hopes, and not all of them involve a loss.

Alabama is coming off an easy victory at home, and they face what is, on paper at least, a tough opponent next week at Ole Miss.  That makes UK a classic "trap game" in the sense that the Tide are very likely to be overlooking Kentucky on Saturday.  Saban will try his level best to force them to treat Kentucky as a serious opponent, but let's face it -- none of the players on the Crimson Tide team could have missed the thrashing Florida put on us, and there is no doubt that it had the effect of lowering their opinion of UK's team this year -- how could it not?

Make no mistake -- the Tide players are not taking UK seriously.  The coaches are, and the fans are (because they know all too well the consequences of not doing so), but the players are not.  It is a fact of youth that you have limited experience upon which to draw, and you inherently think you know the world better than your old coaches or blue-haired fans.  The Tide players all come from schools where losing was a rarity, and ... well, they play for Alabama, and by God, that aught to be enough to beat UK any fine day.

One thing that the Tide does not have that the Gators did have is adversity to focus the mind.  The Gators were struggling with a major outbreak of some non-specific upper respiratory illness, and they knew that if they let that get to them, or took UK lightly, it could wind up an upset.

Star-divide

But Alabama has no such adversity, and all week long they have been subjected to pundits and media telling them how great they are.  There is no doubt that they have been reading their own press clippings, and even if they haven't, they know where they stand.  They will be huge favorites, and are looking to come in and wipe out the 'Cats without breaking a sweat.

Conversely, Kentucky is an angry team.  They allowed Florida to emasculate them on national TV, and I have no doubt that had a profound effect on the team.  Nobody likes to be punked like UK was last weekend, especially in front of the home fans.  The 'Cats have had to watch film after film of that embarrassment, had to hear it from former teammates, parents, and others who are questioning their manhood and the wisdom of their decision to go to UK.  If that doesn't anger these guys, then we know that they aren't worthy of the uniform they wear, and further, probably are not human beings.

The problem with anger is, it has to be channeled into focus and precision.  Alabama is far more talented than Kentucky, and it will take the best game UK has played this year by far to beat the Tide, plus a little help from the Elephants.  We can expect the latter because of complacency, but if the 'Cats aren't ready to embrace the opportunities Alabama will give them and put points on the board, they cannot win.

Kentucky, on Saturday, must focus harder than they ever have.  No more blown blocking assignments on punts.  No more blown routes.  No more missed tackles.  No more brain-dead, drive-killing penalties.  Focus, pay attention to technique and give maximum effort, and an upset becomes possible.  Nervousness, fear, and doubt have to be banished from every Wildcat mind, because any of those things could be the straw that breaks the proverbial camel's back, because in this game, the camel is more like a swaybacked, three-legged mule.

So what are the stakes in this game?  Well, for Alabama, a loss here will send them careening down the polls.  But they have plenty of opportunity to make it back up, so it is by no means an end to their BCS championship plans.  In each of the last three seasons, an SEC team with one loss has still made it to the BCS championship game, and there is no real reason why that couldn't happen again, especially if Alabama manages to defeat Florida in the likely SEC championship matchup.  That fact won't be lost on the Tide players.

But for Kentucky, this game is huge.  Lose this game badly, and Kentucky could end up in a downward spiral that may not stop until October 24th.  The prospect of finally returning to Commonwealth Stadium 2-4 looms very large, and UK must try to take advantage of every opportunity.  Alabama looks lousy as an opportunity, but any home game is far preferable to a road game in the SEC, even against so formidable an opponent as the Tide.

In the end though, even if Kentucky does lose this game, they can redeem themselves for last week by giving the Tide all they can handle.  That may give them the confidence to go into the coming road trip and steal a victory.  But another lopsided, early-over game will be much tougher to rebound from than the Florida loss was.  There may be no moral victories, but there is a world of difference between showing that you are a competitive SEC team and demonstrating for good and all that you are little more than a doormat this year for any team not named Vanderbilt.

So am I saying that there's a chance?  Yes.  Slim, and with a vanishingly small margin for error, but there is a chance, and Alabama themselves will provide the crack in the door.  Can Kentucky force it open?

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Based on last year

We should do better, but we have to remember that we got turnover help early on. (like +3) If we don’t get that I think it will be pretty lopsided. Imagine if Florida coughed it up one or two times in that first quarter last week…

by ukbulldog on Oct 1, 2009 8:18 PM EDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

Assumptions Squared

The late Stephen Jay Gould put it quite well:

"The invalid assumption that correlation implies cause is probably among the two or three most serious and common errors of human reasoning"

At least two or three assumptions:

Make no mistake — the Tide players are not taking UK seriously.

Conversely, Kentucky is an angry team.

"The principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale."
—Thomas Jefferson

by Wild Weasel on Oct 1, 2009 8:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Of course they are assumptions.

And, of course, the are both probably right. :-)

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Oct 1, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tru, you are really going to have to work on toning down all of this optimism

youre going to have a stroke…..lol……

Remember, we're having fun now!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Oct 2, 2009 8:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Heh.

Optimism is good, as long as it’s tempered by a firm hold on reality. :-)

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Oct 2, 2009 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am glad that this title

sounds better than the Kentucky Has No Shot, from last week. I am always hopeful for my Wildcats before every game, during every game, and after every game for the next target. While being so hopeful, I also try to be quietly realistic :-). My criticism does nothing to help the team, really.

This is my job as a Wildcat fan. I am here for support and support alone. I cannot tell them what they should or shouldn’t do, but I can cheer for them. That might be what helps them pull-off a win on Saturday. They might want to do it for fans that appreciate the effort. I appreciated the effort last Saturday, and I will this Saturday too, win or lose, though a win would be welcome. A win is always nice for the team.. :-)

GO CATS !!

Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!

by a2d2 on Oct 1, 2009 9:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The title may sound better there A2.....but I will bet my bottom dollar the sentiment

from the author is exactly the same…..lol….

Remember, we're having fun now!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Oct 2, 2009 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I suppose that's so.

I believe we have a chance. Just not a very good one, if that’s what you’re saying.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Oct 2, 2009 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, if it makes you feel better I agree

I really do think Bama is better than Florida….just not as flashy…..

Remember, we're having fun now!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Oct 2, 2009 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am not quite sure ...

… if the Tide is better than Florida. I think they are better defensively, but I don’t think they are really as good offensively. I think Florida would have crushed Va. Tech., whereas the Tide did not. So I am not quite ready to elevate the Tide yet.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Oct 2, 2009 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder how much of that was breaking in the new qb.

Their passing game is coming along nicely, which is even more concern for us as you get them earlier in the schedule. But I think Saban played it safe in that first one.

by Hooper on Oct 2, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would say you are closer to the truth than not

 on that Hooper……Saban has a history of letting things steamroll as the season goes on and get better and better…..he has bounced back from a couple of early season scrapes and crushed some people in the past….

Remember, we're having fun now!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Oct 2, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stay close early

If we play close, and I mean real close, early we’ve got a chance. If they get a 14 point lead, its over. They have speed and I saw Brooks said we did too. Where was it last Saturday? We’ve got maybe eight to ten players who are SEC caliber speed. Florida and this team have it across the board. Maybe next year.
I think Alabama will be looking pass us. Still it would be a long shot. If they’re not, is 2-2 time.
Brooks can get the respect and show us we’ve accomplished something if we win. If we lose, so what, we’re suppose to.
I don’t think this is the make or break game though. That will be at Auburn. Lose to them and the future looks like a bowl in Tennessee is the best we can hope for. That is if Mississippi State doesn’t bite us. Lose to Auburn and South Carolina, leaves Louisiana Monroe, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Eastern and Tennessee. Losses to Alabama, Auburn, and South Carolina are possible. That would make it 2-4. Thank you Mitch for the buy wins against Louisiana Monroe and Eastern. That leaves Mississippi State, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Tennessee to get to the ‘sacred six’ win.
Wouldn’t it be something if we had to beat Tennessee to get back to Tennessee for Chistmas?

by ParisGuy on Oct 1, 2009 10:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

At this point our making a Tennessee bowl game is 40/60........

Tennessee is better than we are…..I hate admitting it…but they are….and Auburn may also be better….South Carolina looks better, but it may be a fluke…..after seeing the first three games my honest opinion is that we are looking at 5-7……I am praying I am wrong here………

Remember, we're having fun now!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Oct 2, 2009 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not as sanguine about Tennessee as you are.

I think Kentucky has a reasonable shot at them, but having to play them on the road will make it very tough.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Oct 2, 2009 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am somewhat sitting on the fence also Tru....

but they are bigger and faster than we are, that much I know….and as you guys have pointed out so many times….they have a lot more of the 4-5 star recruits….

Remember, we're having fun now!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Oct 2, 2009 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They also have Monte Kiffin....and I really do believe that other than

Dick LeBeau at Pittsburgh, he is the smartest defensive guy in the business today.

Remember, we're having fun now!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Oct 2, 2009 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I completely agree.

Great defensive coach.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Oct 2, 2009 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I will throw a flyer at you for a second....

How many recruits do you think Tennessee is going to get that just want to play in that Defensive scheme of his?….How much weight does that name carry??

Remember, we're having fun now!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Oct 2, 2009 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would say not that much.

Tennessee is a “name” school with national championships. I think that matters much more than anything else.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Oct 2, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A lot.

UT is getting close to overrecruiting on the defensive side of the ball, and many of those recruits have specifically cited Monte as the reason they committed. (Orgeron was also frequently mentioned by D-linemen.)

The secondary advantage that Monte has is that we know he’s not going anywhere. Strong in Florida is overdue to leave for his own head coaching gig, for example, but Monte will be at UT so long as Lane is, and between the buyout and Monte himself, even the more negative projections would have them at UT for several more years. (Barring scandal, naturally.)

Monte is the reason UT got Janzen Jackson at the 11th (12th?) hour from LSU last recruiting cycle. The only area on defense that hasn’t been filled to capacity is middle linebacker, but since that’s the most critical piece of the Monte Kiffin T2 defense, I really don’t see that as being a problem.

by Hooper on Oct 2, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's kind of what I thought.....

Kiffin’s name carries a lot of weight in ALL circles…..(not Lane’s, Monte’s…lol) I heard a lot of people say that he was the reason that Lane got the job in the first place….and if UT HAS overrecruited defensively, we would be able to take some of those guys off their hands…..

Remember, we're having fun now!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Oct 2, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

heh.

They haven’t overrecruited quite yet, and some of it was JUCO commits who are filling holes in the roster for previous years. (For example, we have zero sophomore defensive tackles.)

As far as whether Monte got Lane hired, so to speak. I’m certain that has a lot to do with it, though it’s murky. With Monte still under contract with Tampa Bay at the time, it’s not like Lane could “guarantee” Monte, with emphasis on the quotes. But still, it’s no small secret that Monte was somehow part of the sales pitch. I would think that Lane’s recruiting prowess and his salesmanship had a lot to do with it as well, though.

by Hooper on Oct 2, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And LeBeau was a horrible head coach

First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...

by btcoop71 on Oct 2, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah Coop he was....but look where it was at.....

and he has said more than once taking the Bengals job was a mistake…..he is the prime example of a guy who doesnt want to be a head coach who is worth his weight in gold at what he does

Remember, we're having fun now!!!

by ALLBLUCAT on Oct 2, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is so.

I think our best chance is that they have not really had time to assimilate the coach’s systems, and sooner or later that is going to show up. I also think UT is more likely to throw in clunkers every now an then than most teams with their talent, so that’s where my lack of faith in them comes from.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Oct 2, 2009 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd agree that it's too early to call that game.

This year, UT has great talent in the first string, but the depth is not developed. An injury here or there could really change the complexion of the team (as has losing Reveiz for the season). But UT, barring complete catastrophe, UT will come to the UK game with:

+ A great defensive line.

+ A great secondary.

+ A great running game.

+ And, apparently, better special teams.

Other than that, passing and the linebacker corps are the concerns. Our receivers are still making mistakes, Crompton is Crompton, and losing the middle linebacker Nick Reveiz is a tremendous blow to the defense.

by Hooper on Oct 2, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not at Tennessee

The game is at Lexington.

by ParisGuy on Oct 2, 2009 11:13 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Heh.

So it is. I don’t know why I thought it was at UT.

Well, that makes it better! :-)

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Oct 2, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think the Bama players are overlooking UK

Due to three things:
1. They still remember how it felt to come out in the Sugar Bowl and lay an egg.
2. The running game wants to come out and reestablish itself after the weak performance against Ark..
3. The defense wants to prove that it can still get the job done without Donta Hightower.

by jthomas666 on Oct 2, 2009 5:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

#4.

They remember last year’s scare by UK

by hoboat33 on Oct 2, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Could be a bit of wishful thinking.

But then again, I remember many times the Wildcats took teams for granted in basketball, and wound up losing or in a serious cat fight (pardon the pun).

I am grasping at whatever straws seem plausible. :-)

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Oct 2, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I wish you the best of luck with them.

Even if they are overlooking, Alabama will be a very tough draw.

by Hooper on Oct 2, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

watching UofL v Pitt

This Froman kid looks good. Glad we didn’t have to play him!

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Oct 2, 2009 9:11 PM EDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

In retrospect...

Scratch that.

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Oct 3, 2009 8:12 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

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