Tonight, Kentucky once more goes on the road in the SEC to take on the Ole Miss Rebels down in Oxford.  Ole Miss has had a really trying year so far, losing several key players to injury.  Not even the coach has been immune, with Andy Kennedy having some kind of a physical altercation with a cab driver that has resulted in lawsuits and a charge of criminal assault against Kennedy.

On the basketball court, Ole Miss has struggled since the loss of Chris Warren at the very end of a close game in Louisville.  Several players have tried to pick up the slack, but you can't lose someone like Warren and just recover from it, and Ole miss has lost four out of five games in the conference.

So now, let's take a look at Ole Miss from a statistical standpoint

Player Statistics (Courtesy of Statsheet.com)

Normal starters are highlighted in yellow.  Players highlighted in gray are out.

Team Statistics (Courtesy of Kenpom.com)

Analysis

You can see from the above charts that UK is a vastly superior team defensively, and just as efficient as the Rebels offensively.  UK's offensive rating suffered a little due to the recent defensive struggle in Alabama, but it is likely to go the other direction tonight.

Because of a multitude of serious injuries, the Ole Miss Rebels have been trying to cobble together something out of spare parts and bailing wire.  Florida transfer David Huertas has had to take over almost the complete scoring load from Chris Warren, who went down from a season-ending knee injury at Louisville earlier this year.  Huertas is the only player who has started every game this year.

Looking at the starters, you can see why Ole Miss is struggling this year -- not a single upperclassman among them.  In fact, there are only two on the team, both seniors and neither of whom see significant minutes.  Will Bogan has taken over the point guard duties from Chris Warren.  He is a good perimeter shooter, but has not exactly excelled in the point guard role, having an A/TO of just slightly over 1/1.  Malcolm White is the biggest player in the starting lineup, but he only manages around five rebounds per game.  Zach Graham is a good three-point shooter, and the combination of Huertas, Graham and Boggan make for a dangerous perimeter shooting team.  The other starter, Murphy Holloway, is mainly in for rebounding and defense.  Terrico White is a significant contributor off the bench, and is the second-leading scorer of the team that the Rebels will put on the floor tonight.

Ole Miss has neither the bodies nor the skill to hold down either Patrick Patterson or Jodie Meeks.  They are so depleted and young, it will be hard for them to do anything but zone the Wildcats, with the hope that the 'Cats won't solve it well.  This could happen and has happened in the past, but I do think that the 'Cats are now able to effectively attack a zone, especially one in which many of the team's best athletes are currently in rehab.

Defensively, if the 'Cats play like they did against Alabama, this game could get very ugly for Ole Miss.  Huertas is a capable scorer, but he needs help to get his shot.  Inside, the Rebels are too small and too slow to do much scoring against Kentucky unless Patterson and Stevenson take the night off.

Conclusion

The only way Ole Miss beats Kentucky tonight is by shooting lights-out from three and being extremely effective in holding down Patrick Patterson or Jodie Meeks.  Note that they almost must do both, because only one will likely not produce enough points to win, although they could make it interesting.

If the Rebels zone the 'Cats and Meeks is hot, he could set another record against them.  Even if he isn't hot, he is likely to shoot well enough to force them to face-guard him and go to a box-and-one.  Face-guarding Meeks has not been a successful tactic so far by any team who has tried it, because the 'Cats are getting better at off-the-ball screens and Meeks just seems to have no limit to the energy he can exert to get open.  I really don't think Ole Miss can be effective against Kentucky in the man-to-man, as thier relatively poor defensive efficiency illustrates.  Ole Miss is OK against the three, but they aren't very good against the 2, and that's where Kentucky excels.

Another problem for the Rebels is offensive rebounding.  You can see from their size why this would be an issue, and if UK pounds them on the offensive glass, it will be game over very early.  Turnovers for Kentucky are not likely to be as much of a problem tonight, because the Rebels turn the ball over a lot as well.

In the end, this game looks like a big mismatch on paper.  The Rebels can beat us if they shoot it well from outside, but a lot of other stuff has to go well for them at the same time in order for them to pull off this upset.