Marching Through Georgia

Fresh off a historic victory over Tennessee, the Wildcats head down to Georgia for a tussle with the Dawgs.  Given that Kentucky has won two straight in the SEC and 13 of their last 15 games and Georgia is in the middle of a four-game losing streak, UK ought to be considered the overwhelming favorite for this game. 

But Georgia always gives UK trouble, beating us in the SEC tournament last year and then going on to win the whole thing for the automatic bid.  They play very tough defense down in Athens, and even though Dennis Felton can't seem to keep his most talented players on campus, the Bulldogs protect their basket with uncommon ferocity and success.

Player Stats (Courtesy of BBState.com)

Team Statistics (Courtesy of Kenpom.com)

Analysis

The Bulldogs are led in scoring by senior guard Terrance Woodbury and Rivals four-star freshman forward Trey Thompkins from Jodie Meeks' home town of Norcross, Georgia.  Woodbury is a big off guard who loves to slash to the basket but can step out and shoot the three.  Howard Thompkins is a genuine inside-out threat who is shooting 43% from the arc but can post up and score down low as well.  Thompkins is a really promising freshman who will be a great player at Georgia if he stays for four years.  Corey Butler and Zac Swansea round out the back court and Albert Jackson, a 6'10'' banger who played really well against Kentucky last year in the SEC tournament, joins Thompkins in the front court.

Offensively, the Dawgs are very limited.  Georgia tries to milk the shot clock, as you would expect for a team who is trying to hide both a size and talent deficiency.  Unfortunately for Georgia, many of their most talented offensive players were either dismissed, graduated or left in the interregnum between last year's NCAA tournament and this year.  That leaves the Dawgs with not only a very young squad, but a group that is lacking leadership and cohesion.

The Dawgs simply have no answer, at least on paper, for players like Patrick Patterson and Jodie Meeks.  Even though Georgia guards very well, particularly the 3 point line, they have a very hard time putting the ball in the basket, as attested by their 34% shooting percentage in a loss to Vanderbilt on Wednesday.  Georgia will try to slow down the game and keep it in the 60's where they have a chance to win, but Kentucky will want to push the tempo and get the game at least into the mid-70's, which will exploit Kentucky's athleticism and put pressure on the Bulldog's thin back court.

Georgia's season has been marred by bad losses to Loyola-Chicago and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.The closest thing they have to a good win has been an overtime victory over  Virginia Tech at home earlier this year.

Conclusion

This is a game that the Wildcats should win easily.  Georgia is young and shoots the ball badly from the free throw line, which makes their offensive efficiency among the poorest in the SEC.  Their defense, as always, is excellent, but they are playing the third most efficient scoring team in the SEC behind Florida and Tennessee.  In addition, the Wildcats' schedule, as weak as it has been, is significantly stronger than that of the Bulldogs this year.

Despite Georgia's defensive prowess, they will be very hard pressed to guard the Meeks/Patterson tandem, especially in the half court.  Georgia is very good defensively in the half court and will try to pressure Kentucky's guards, particularly Michael Porter, out away from the basket, but as we saw on Tuesday, pressuring Meeks is no easy task even for so accomplished a defensive team as Georgia.  Despite their defensive prowess, the have been less efficient defensively than Kentucky, and combined with their offensive difficulties, it is hard to see how they manage to shoot more than 40% eFG%, and UK has not lost a game where it has held an opponent below 40% in that statistic.

Georgia's best chance to win this game is with great defense.  If Georgia can hold UK to an offensive efficiency below 94, they have a very good chance to pull the upset.  Unfortunately for the Dawgs, only three teams have managed to do that all year, and one of them still lost to the 'Cats.  Kentucky gets by far the best of this matchup on the bench, as well.

This one should go to Kentucky between by 8-15 points.