Kentucky Wildcat Basketball: As Midnight Madness creeps ever nearer ...
I have mostly eschewed basketball news lately in favor of football. There has really not been that much to tell except some comments on recent pick-up games, which I and most of the Big Blue Faithful have learned to place very little stock in. Thus, at most, you have a few links to news reports and little else.
But in the last week or so, Rivals has begun releasing its top 65 teams for the 2008-2009 season, and Kentucky weighs in at #40 (Free). Now, I know a few Wildcat fans will want to take umbrage with this, but realistically, that is a very reasonable pre-season ranking for this team. Do I believe we deserve to be better? Well, yes, the fan in me really does, but when I take off my Big Blue shades, I see things that would give a neutral observer reason for concern:
- Patrick Patterson, as good as he is, lost 6 months of basketball. He has only been able to do rehab and some lifting, which will help, but the part of his game that makes him what he is, i.e. running, jumping, and competing, has been denied him lo these many months. That will definitely cause his development to be set back a bit. How much we won't know for a while, and he will be good, but just how good is a question mark.
- Jodie Meeks also lost some time. I don't think it has been nearly as bad for him as for Pat, but there will be some lingering effects come October. He is in a position that must step up and deliver, as he is the primary back court scoring threat this year unless someone shows up out of the blue.
- Point guard situation -- even with Liggins, there are questions to be asked. Is Liggins good enough to be an SEC starter right out of the box? How much can Galloway and Porter help? Freshman point guards are not something any SEC team would want to take the floor with in most seasons. Liggins will have a big say in how successful this team will be.
- Scoring -- that is, by far, the biggest concern of those who look at Kentucky pre-season. After losing two 20 point per game guards and replacing them with unproven players (except Meeks), do we have enough perimeter scoring? I actually think we can replace them by committee, but we'll have to see how that works out.
But there are also reasons for optimism, and as an optimistic fan, I will tell you that these are more in my mind than the concerns:
- Flexibility -- we have six athletic players in the 6'5" - 6'8" range, all of whom are interchangeable at two positions and three of whom are interchangeable at three.
- Defense -- this team is far, far more capable of being a lock-down defensive team than last year's was, and last year's team was pretty darn good defensively.
- Built to run -- This team is deep, athletic and will be able to run, and DeAndre Liggins loves to advance the ball with the pass. The prospect of seeing our fast break this year excites the heck out of me.
- Built to rebound -- This is the tallest Kentucky team 1-5 I can ever remember. There is no reason for an opponent to ever get an offensive rebound. We should dominate the defensive glass, and could dominate the offensive glass as well.
- Decent depth everywhere -- With the exception of off guard, unless Williams is way better than I expect, we are a deep team, and that depth is decent.
I do not, as a fan, believe that there are 39 teams better than us in the NCAA. But I also know as an analyst that there are many unanswered questions, and it's usually best when ranking teams to err on the side of what you think you know. We know so little about so much of this year's team, a ranking between 30 and 40 makes sense intellectually, even if it does "angry up" my blue blood a bit.
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Comments
I think that's a fair analysis you give Tru
Dickie V puts us at 24… one ahead of the defending national champs! How one can be such an idiot I’ll never know.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/dickvitale/news/story?id=3544438
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
by chirop1 on Sep 8, 2008 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget...
The Billy G factor and the improvements from year 1 to year 2 his teams have shown in the past as a positive looking forward to the season.
And if you want to remain in “angry fan mode” just remember most outlets kept UNC in the top 30 when they lost 7 of their top 8 three years ago (after that championsip).
by jamccain on Sep 8, 2008 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point ...
… about Gillispie’s history.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Sep 8, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
7 of 8 lost
Which is why I think its ridiculous to drop Kansas so far. (Although… Florida did tank pretty bad after they lost their top 5…)
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
by chirop1 on Sep 8, 2008 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
6 W To 24 And 21 W to 22
Big improvement at UTEP. Not so much at TAMU.
I expect big improvement at UK this season.
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 8, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
#40 Is Far Too Low
UK will have 27 or 28 W in March and rank in the Top 10 (or so) if all are healthy and eligible, as I expect.
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 8, 2008 4:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
…although I’ve been telling people Top 20ish, but Top 10ish has a better ring to it.
Ignoring the spotty reliability of the summer pickup games for just a moment, I would like to add that Meeks looked GREAT at the open scrimmage this past Saturday. I don’t expect him to be as rusty as Patterson, if at all.
Also, Matt Pilgrim is the real deal.
by BBallSophist on Sep 8, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very good analysis
I have no problem with the pollsters taking a cautionary stance on UK’s place in the rankings … for all the reasons Tru lists.
One can only hope that UNC takes UK that lightly :)
by Ken Howlett on Sep 8, 2008 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gawd I would love to see...
Us come out and cold-cock those Heels early in the year.
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
by chirop1 on Sep 8, 2008 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rankings
Im thinking that 40 isnt a bad place to be to start the season. We wont take that much of a hit if we drop the first game to UNC. I think this team will certainly be a top 20 team by time the season wraps up but there are just so many question marks out of the gate that need to get anwered before anyone in the national media takes us that seriously. I cant wait until Billy G and the wildcats answer them.
DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!
by davw83 on Sep 8, 2008 4:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I totally agree…
I have absolutely no problem with a #40 ranking to start this season. I rather like the idea of not placing too high of a ranking and the expectations that come with a high ranking on our relatively young team. Also, considering all the newcomers we have this year, they are also quite likely to be an unfamiliar team to each other at this point.
Give this 08/09 team some time to play together, work out the kinks and build their chemistry with absolutely no pressure of a ridiculous and IMO, totally meaningless too-high pre-season ranking……That’s what I say!! : )
by BigSkyCat on Sep 8, 2008 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chip on their shoulder
While, I think these early rankings mean very little, I’d like to think that these young guys will come out with a chip on their shoulder and prove it on the court that they belong in the top 25. I think they deserve to be there but I agree there are too many question marks at this point. Things will hopefully fall into place and the injury bug that plagued the team last year will hopefully stay far away.
by cthom on Sep 8, 2008 5:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Check The Preseason Ranking For 1966 (Rupps Runts) And 1975 (Slaughterhouse 5)
I think you’ll find both were NR in preseason polls but finished #2 in the nation.
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 8, 2008 5:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Unranked to Top Ten
‘61-’62 - Unranked in the preseason, wound up #3.‘66 — As Forty points out, unranked in the preseason, wound up #1.
’65
’67-’68 - Unranked in the preseason, wound up #5.’91 — Unranked in the preseason, wound up #9.
’90
The ‘74-’75 team was ranked #16 in the preseason poll, but fell out in week three of the polls, only to rise to a final ranking of #2.
SOURCE: UK Media Guide ( all rankings are AP ).
by Ken Howlett on Sep 8, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have no idea why there are lines running through this comment.
by Ken Howlett on Sep 8, 2008 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You must've ...
… accidentally used the strike through tag.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Sep 8, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When you ...
… place a hyphen on either side of a word, the editor reads it as a strikethrough.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Sep 8, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I Typed B4 I Checked Jon Scott
UK has had a few teams start out NR (or low) and finish very high in the final polls.
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 8, 2008 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes indeed, but as you know it is rare.
Mostly because UK has been ranked pretty high in most preseason, non-probation year polls.
by Ken Howlett on Sep 8, 2008 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rare (Overall) But Not After Sub-par Year
1987 subpar. 1988 much better.
1985 subpar. 1986 much better.
1979 subpar. 1980 much better.
1976 subpar. 1977 much better.
1974 subpar. 1975 much better.
1967 subpar. 1968 much better.
1965 subpar. 1966 much better.
1963 subpar. 1964 much better.
1961 subpar. 1962 much better.
(Off the top of my head)
Rarely does UK have 2 subpar (fewer than 20 W, 1st round L in SECT and NCAA or NIT) years in a row.
1989 and 1990. 1960 and 1961. I can’t remember many (if any) others.
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 8, 2008 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice article....
- isn’t a bad place to start. I wouldn’t expect much better after losing Bradley and Crawford while PP and Meeks are coming off injuries, I expect that this team will move up quickly. Just pray for good health.
The ranking just hurts my pride the most! I’ll get over it…:))
by SevenRings on Sep 8, 2008 6:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What will it take to be a top ten team this year.
It doesn’t matter who makes these numbers or if they are done by committee, but at the end of the game, the positions should reflect at least these numbers offensively along with a dominate defense to win. We must protect the ball, hold our opponents in the 60s and keep them under 40 boards. We don’t need as many threes if we get a lot of fast breaks and make our free throws.
PG/LG 10 ppg, 6 apg, 2 topg, 6 rpg, 75% FT
SG/Wing 18 ppg, 4apg, 2 topg, 6 rbg, 85% FT
SFWing 13 ppg, 5apg, 2 topg,10 rpg, 75% FT
PF/Post 18 ppg, 4 apg, 2 topg, 10 rpg, 75% FT
C/Post 13 ppg, 4 apg, 2 topg, 10 rpg, 75% FT
Totals: 72 ppg, 23 apg, 10 topg, 42 rbg, 77% FT
Looking at our roster is this possible? I think so. What do you think?
by Blueobsessed on Sep 8, 2008 7:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think 23 apg is possible ... only 10 turnovers pg is highly unlikely ... 77% team FT shooting Wow!, that's
very rare … 72 ppg, now I can see that happening. Rather than look at a specific number of rebounds, I look at how many boards UK outrebounds its opponents by, and in that category if they can win the rebounding battle by 5 or 6 boards ( on average ) that would be very good.
by Ken Howlett on Sep 8, 2008 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seems about right to me
I can’t say that I get too bent out of shape by preseason prognostications such as this. As Tru points out, there are far too many questions about this team to justify any kind of a high ranking (I would consider anything top-20 to be “high” in this instance).
Sure, we expect this team to come together and play much better than the squad last year, with more depth, more experience for the key guys, and to replace collectively what was lost with Joe, Ramel, and Derrick. But as Tru points out, those expectations come with a healthy dose of Blue, and outside analysts will not necessarily agree that everything will come together the way we hope it will. And that’s okay, because unlike football, where a team is ranked at the beginning of the season has absolutely nothing to do with where it plays at the end of the season – it’s determined on the court.
If UK truly is a top 20 team, it will be there by the end of the season (or earlier).
Will there ever be a boy born who can swim faster than a shark?
by JLeverenz on Sep 8, 2008 9:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Turnovers are the key
I’m not too sure that setting the expectation high for the assist/turnover ratio for the whole team is not such a bad idea. Last yeaar Joe and Ramel accounted for 183 TO and 165 assists and they were the best we had. On the whole team, only Meeks and Jasper had more assists than than turnovers. Our foul shooting also hurt us. Hitting over 75% as a team should be our goal. Improve the areas (turnovers, assists, foul shooting) and the rebounding and we should be a very good team. Don’t and it will be a long season. Having five positions that average in the double figures also will help us in areas where we were limited last year.It will make us harder to defend.
Obviously these are arbitrary numbers, but just out rebounding a team will not necessarily mean we will win the game. We won several games last year even though we were out rebounded. If our dense holds up, we simply have to score more points. The easiest way to do that if you don’t have a lot of great shooters is to get fast breaks, cut the number of turnovers, increase the number of assists and hit your FTs.
by Blueobsessed on Sep 8, 2008 10:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I certainly agree with your first sentence. The a/to ratio has been a serious problem for three years.
My thinking on the rebounding numbers: A common denominator of most good/great teams is the fact that they generally outrebound their opponents over the course of a season. There will be games here and there that they don’t, but if a team makes a habit of being outrebounded they must be very good in another statistical area to make up for the lack of rebounding. Take W. Virginia of four or five years ago ( the team that lost to U of L in the NCAA Tourney ), they were an excellent team, but were outrebounded on most nights. But they made up for that shortcoming by shooting the ball extremely well, most notably the three-point shot.
UK’s rebounding problem of the last three years stems from their inability to gather in offensive rebounds ( which leads to fewer shots ), especially in the ’06 and ’07 seasons.
If your talking about the numbers from above being team goals, then I agree, those are some nice, but might lofty goals for a team to shoot for.
by Ken Howlett on Sep 9, 2008 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Position/Team Goals versus Individual Goals
The statements above are team goals that reflect the “interchangability” of our team. We cannot have huge drop off of output either offensively or defensive if we are to be truly “interchangable”. That is why the goals at the end of the game, though lofty, must be achieved by the entire team for UK to return to the elite ranks. We simply can’t turn the ball over, i.e. getting the ball stripped from our hands after we worked so hard for the rebound. Great teams that go far into the NCAA also shoot well from the foul line. I think Meeks is capable of hitting 90% from the line. That’s why I like him at PG/LG and handling the ball, but that’s just me.
I agree we must be aggresive rebounders. I think 42 rebounds a game is achievable. For UK to be successful, the other team must get less than that. Offensive rebounds are obviously very important.As far as the assists/ turnover ratio. I do not think that is a stat just for the point guard. It is a team thing. Many turnovers are turnovers because a teammate did not make the basket. A 2:1 ratio is important for the entire team. Not many great teams have 15 to 20 turnovers a game. With work and dedication, I see this team achieving these goals and being a rather tough team to beat.
by Blueobsessed on Sep 9, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last 4 FF Teams At UK
http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/statistics/1997-98.html 67.5% FT shooting.
http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/statistics/1996-97.html 68.2% FT shooting.
http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/statistics/1995-96.html 71.3% FT shooting.
http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/statistics/1992-93.html 68.8% FT shooting.
I think FT shooting is overrated. SCORING matters more than % whether FG or FT.
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 9, 2008 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point, but all of those teams didn't need FTs, this team does!
Each of the teams mentioned were scoring machines. We may get there someday, but I think this team will have to win with hard nosed defense and scoring around 70 points a game.
1992-93 averaged 87.5 ppg
1995-96 averaged 91 ppg
1996-97 averaged 83 ppg
1997-98 averaged 80 ppg
I agree that all those teams were strong rebounding teams and as a team had more assists than turnovers. For this year’s team to suceed in that level of rarified air, they have to cut down their turnovers, increase their assists, out rebound their opponents and make their free throws. That’s the only way they will score over 70 ppg.
by Blueobsessed on Sep 9, 2008 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those Teams (Except 1993) Dominated WITH Defense
Look at the numbers on 1996-97-98 teams. Defense was a strong point for them.
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 9, 2008 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I am not mistaken....
Syracue was unranked until February the year they won it all….correct me if I"m wrong
by SevenRings on Sep 8, 2008 11:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Preseason Rankings
Postseason rankings.
Priceless.
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 9, 2008 6:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I suspect...
Kentucky will be pretty good.
You’re Kentucky, after all.
Orange and Blue Hue: The World through GATOR-colored Glasses -- http://www.orangeandbluehue.com
by Gatorpilot on Sep 9, 2008 8:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pilot, what's up?
Are you being a smarta_ _?
I caught most of the Miami game the other night. What’s your take on Meyer tacking on that field goal?
Don’t be a stranger, orangeandbluehue is always welcome here :)
by Ken Howlett on Sep 9, 2008 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty Good Don't Dance In The Bluegrass
I know you are being subtle but Pretty Good won’t do for the Big Blue.
Eddie Sutton was pretty good. Joe B Hall in the 1980’s was pretty good. Tubby Smith in the 2000’s was pretty good. Adolph Rupp was pretty good in the 1960’s and early 1970’s.
UK was great in the 1940’s and 50’s (Rupp) or 1990’s (Pitino, Tubby).
Pretty good won’t cut it.
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 9, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AMEN!!! BROTHER PREEEECH IT! Back to fundamentals and excellence!
“Pretty Good don’t dance” is it in a nutshell. Competing for the sweet sixteen and then the elite eight and then the final four will bring in the recruits. Top ten rankings at the end of the year are what we want..
by Blueobsessed on Sep 9, 2008 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1992 Through 2005
2 NC, 4 FF, 9 E8, 11 S16 in 14 years. The best UK era since 1946 to 59 (no games in 53) no doubt.
Gillispie must show he can do that. SO FAR in his career, he has 1 S16 in 6 years.
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 9, 2008 11:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Talent helps and we are begining to get a new breed of athletes
Had Morris stayed one more year, and everyone been healthy, it would have been an exciting ride last year. I don’t believe in the * system, having seen how wildly overrated and underrated some players can be. Nevertheless, because of the NBA and now Europe, college coaches must find high quality athletes that need development to go to the next level and every once in a while slip in a few outstanding athletes who will not last the entire four years to make up their teams.. Kansas, Memphis, and North Carolina have chosen to fill their lineups with “one and done” and hope they will stay in order to enhance their contracts chances by winning a NCAA national championship, but even these team need some just plain good athletes.
With coaching changes come recruits asking if they really want to come to KY to play in front of such large crowds who might “boo” them. Additionally, the SEC is down in quality from what it has been with the exception of a few teams, and it is a smaller television market than the West Cost teams have.
So what do you do, recruit long, strong, agile athletes, ala Haskins, play tough defense and run a lot. This year we can run. Last year, our kind of bench held us back. Now we are beginning to become “interchangeable”.
by Blueobsessed on Sep 10, 2008 7:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Believe He CAN
I just don’t believe he HAS yet. I think he WILL.
Morris was going to stay until the coaching change.
Injuries hurt UK in 2008. Coaching was not great in late 2007.
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 10, 2008 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh well....
that was Morris’ loss for sure.
by kentuckygirl0724 on Sep 11, 2008 8:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that was morris's loss
A year under BCG would have really been good for morris is he hadnt cracked like a nut under the pressure.
Morris is now playing alongside Al Horford with the ATL Hawks. Its yet to be determined how much playing time he will receive this season.
DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!
by davw83 on Sep 11, 2008 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Morris Would Have Been Successful As Senior Regardless
He got better every year under Tubby. He would have continued that.
Whether Tubby or Gillispie was coach.
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 13, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NOT NEEDED
Your comment is rediculous and completely unecessarry.
MY COMMENT WAS IN NO WAY A SLAM OF TUBBY SMITH AND IN NO WAY MADE THE INFERENCE THAT MORRIS WOULD BE UNSUCCESSFULL HIS SENIOR YEAR UNDER TUBBY.
GO TELL SOMEONELSE WHO CARES.
DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!
by davw83 on Sep 13, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It Was Appropriate
Morris would have been better served to play Sr year at UK regardless of coach.
You said “A year under BCG would have really been good for morris is he hadnt cracked like a nut under the pressure.”
I don’t agree. I say, “Senior year would have been good for Morris, period.”
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 14, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agee with that
but your original comment made it seem like yo were defending Tubby from an attack that wasnt there.
Morris would indeed have improved under either coach but I happen to think he would have benefited more from a year under Coach G than another year under Tubby. MY reasoning is not that Tubby is a bad coach at all just that morris would have benefited under a different coach for a season to add fresh perspective to his game. you learn more if you learn from more people.
I felt like you were coming with the Tubby defense that is really uneccesarry. Its downright old and tired. Anytime someone makes a comment you dont have to come with the passive aggressive Tubby defense that you sometimes have going on. I think its readily apparent that Morris improved under Tubby every season. Only a five year old may disagree with that. It would have been much clearer to me if you had simply kept your comment to the last line of your post which was the only necessarry part.
DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!
by davw83 on Sep 14, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I State Facts
When you do, I don’t have to.
Tubby, Pitino, whomever. State facts, not otherwise.
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 14, 2008 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Example
Joe Crawford. Better as a senior than any other year at UK.
Jeff Sheppard. Better as a senior than any other year at UK.
Rodrik Rhodes. Better as senior at USC than any year at UK.
Derrick Miller. Better as a senior than any other year at UK.
Tom Parker. Better as a senior than any other year at UK.
Was it the new coach each of those years? Or was it the maturity and experience that seniors possess?
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 14, 2008 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FActs
Blogs are for opinions as well as facts yes but some of the facts are so unecessarry that they arent worth stating. That fact the Morris got better every year under Smith is one of these but that wasnt my point at all and you dont seem to understand that. . Only a complete idiot would disagree with that statement. It doesnt pertain to my opinion at all. Morris would gotten better his senior at UK under either coach. Its my opinion that he would have benefited more under one year of Coach G than under a fourth yeart with tubby smith. Not four years but a fourth year. Not because Coach G is a better coach than Tubby but just that he is a different coach than Tubby, no one can ever know that this is true. Its called an opinion . If people only came here for facts they would leave pretty soon as it would be pretty boring.
You cant tell which it was and it doesnt matter. Having multiple coaches is a good thing. You learn new things from each of them. Its not a denigration of the old coach at all.
DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!
by davw83 on Sep 14, 2008 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look At Examples I Listed Above
Those players excelled as seniors NOT because of a new coach but for other reasons listed, including PT opportunity.
Few coaches (I daresay NONE) change a player in 1 year.
Morris would have greatly benefitted from Sr year at UK even if you or I coached him.
by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 15, 2008 6:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Television Market
Its not a smaller TV market anymore with the new contract between ESPN and the SEC.
It should be a much larger TV market than just about any conference now.
DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!
by davw83 on Sep 10, 2008 9:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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