The new 3-point line: Big deal or not?

by Truzenzuzex on Sep 29, 2008 11:40 AM EDT Comment 20 comments

For once, Andrew Skwara and Bob McClellan of Rivals.com have a fairly interesting debate over how the new 20'9" 3-point line will affect college basketball. One foot doesn't seem like much of a change. but if you are used to shooing a 19'9" shot as the limit of your range, that extra foot is likely to negatively affect your game. On the other hand, guys who are used to shooting from 21 or 22 feet frequently, as many of the better 3-point shooters in college do these days, it is likely to affect you much less.

Skwara argues that perimeter-shooting big men will be the most affected:

Here's the problem: The range of most of the big men who shoot 3-pointers in the college ranks – and there are plenty – usually stops right around the old 19-9 line. Suddenly those guys are no longer inside-outside scorers. Many of their coaches will take away their green light, and they sure don't want them shooting from a foot inside the arc (the shot that is often described as the worst in basketball).

McClellan argues that the new distance won't matter much:

Players are used to making sure their feet are behind the line at 19-9. What's another foot? The best shooters in the college game probably are hoping for professional careers, so I hope when they practice they're chucking a lot of jumpers from the NBA 3-point line, which is well behind 20-9.

I think these guys wind up making very similar arguments, more in agreement than disagreement. Myself, I think marginal 3-point shooters will be the most affected -- guys that rarely take the three but wind up shooting a decent percentage at 19'9". The extra foot is likely to be a psychological as well as mechanical detriment to their shooting. Those most affected by that are likely to be big guys that occasionally shoot the three to keep the defense honest, or slashers who use the 3-point shot to keep their man closer to them, making it easier for them to get to the rim.

For example, guys like Terrance Williams of Louisville, who can shoot the three but tends to be very streaky could be negatively affected by the new distance. Slashers like Williams who use the 3-point shot to help open up their driving game are likely to see their percentage suffer, at least for a few years until players become used to the new distance.

The purpose of moving the line was supposed to be to open up the inside more, and I think you will see some of that, especially where teams have really good shooters. Forcing the defense out an extra foot will make double teams from the top harder and post scoring easier. Conversely, teams with poor perimeter shooters can look forward to more tightly packed zones. I fear that Kentucky will face this problem more often than not, due to a lack of depth in perimeter shooting. Perhaps one of the walk-ons can help in that role, but I expect it will be a double-edged sword in the case of more athletic teams.

But I believe the new line will impact the game, perhaps more significantly than most people think. To give you some idea how ingrained the 19'9" distance is, Rivals.com did a case study of a Vanderbilt-South Carolina game. The final score using the existing line was 99-90, but using the new line, the score would have been 77-74.

Generally, I think you will see guards taking more of the 3-point shots now than bigger guys. I also think you will see less 3-point shooting on the move -- that extra foot really makes a difference when you don't have the time to get your feet under you. Hence, spot-up shooting is likely to be the rule more often than not.

Poll

How much will the new 20'9" 3-point line affect college basketball?

Dramatically -- We'll see less 3-point shots and lower percentages.

15 votes

Significantly -- We'll see more room in the post and midrange, as well as lower 3-point percentages.

107 votes

Some -- we may see slightly lower 3-point percentages.

170 votes

Not much -- Most players today can handle an extra foot.

59 votes

Not at all -- no change in overall 3-point percentage or post play.

8 votes

359 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 20 comments |

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Comments

Little affect on percentages, more affect on game plans

I think the move will have little affect on overall shooting percentages from 3. The shots are a little more difficult now to be sure, but that will be balanced somewhat by poorer shooters not taking as many shots from behind the arc, meaning the better shooters will account for a greater percentage of total three point shots.

I agree with the coaches and with Skwara that the midrange game should make a stronger appearance. Those big men who used to shoot from right behind the arc will now take a few steps closer to the basket before shooting. I think that is where you will see the biggest difference – in the overall game plan of teams and where they want their shots to come from.

One question I have that I haven’t seen addressed in any of the articles talking about the line: is the distance the same at the corners of the floor? The arc is already flattened in those areas and there’s not really any more room to push them back so I would think the distance from the wings will be the same as before.

One more question, for anybody who went to either of the open practices, did the pickup games use the new line?

"That's not a Sherman tank, it's Frank Thomas!" - Monkeyball

by JLeverenz on Sep 29, 2008 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No

They played the pickup games in memorial. Since the girls line isnt changing and there was only one line painted on the floor I can only assume it was the old line.

DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!

by davw83 on Sep 29, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont see it

I just dont see the new three point line making much of a difference.

Moving it back a foot is well within my own three point range at good percentage. I dont see these stronger college kids have a problem with it.

I also dont think there are that many bigs taking those shots. There are some but not a ton. I dont see effecting anyone who should be taking threes to begin with. I think it may lessen the number of ill advised three point attempts by those who shouldnt be shooting from beyond the arc to begin with.

DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!

by davw83 on Sep 29, 2008 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

"Moving it back a foot is well within my own three point range ..." -- davw, do you have any remaining eligibility?

I haven’t given the new three-point line much thought, perhaps because I don’t think it’s going to have a huge effect on the game.

I tend to agree with Tru and the contributors, although the Rules Committee may have instituted a rule that has the opposite of the intended effect. Kind of like the PGA “Tiger proofing” golf courses — By making the courses longer they simply trimmed down the field of potential winners, making Tiger more likely to win, rather than less likely — In this case; if teams have trouble making the new three-pointer ( which I don’t think will be the case ) then instead of opening up the inside, the lane will then become more clogged with beef.

I’ve been a proponent of moving the three-point line farther from the basket for some time. 19’9" is simply too close, and in my view, undeserving of an extra point ( unless of course it’s a UK player making the shot :)

by Ken Howlett on Sep 29, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Average

Im just your average 25 yr old pick up player. You would want me in the game. I cant hit out to the NBA three but several feet behind the current line has a pretty good chance of going in if I get a clean look.

A lot of these kids who shouldnt be taking these shot have the range but the poorness of a lot of these kids shot mechanics is amazing to me.

DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!

by davw83 on Sep 29, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Three point line should

be moved back 6 feet. I call it the Tayshaun Prince rule, unless you can score from 26 ft out you don’t need to be taking a three point shot. :)

New rule will have marginal effect but nothing really noticeable. Excepting of course all the talking heads yammering on about it all seaon. Anytime someone takes a three we will be reminded OVER AND OVER again about the rule change….UGGGHHHH. It would be cool if fans could talk back to the talking bozos and tell them to Shut the F up already and put forth something worth listening to, like how Tyler Hansborough saved a whole pack of Cub Scouts from certain doom just because he tries so hard.

You folks realize that Dukie V is going to be in rare form this season don’t you? Yes, he survived his personal battle with anal cancer (unfortunately it didn’t extend to his mouth) and is going to share this with the world EVERY FREAKING GAME. Then his good bud, the untouchable Coach K, has brought glory to the grand ol U S of A by bringing home the gold almost singlehandedly. Can’t forget how much Loozer was responsible for the gold too. If it weren’t for him we wouldn’t have made it out of pool play. Guarantee EVERY FREAKING GAME Vitalis is a part of broadcasting this fact will get mentioned at least 10 times with Dukie V imploring kids to go to dUKe if they wanna be winners. I almost don’t want to watch a game that will feature his rotting flesh in front of the microphone. Nice guy but too much of a hoser. My only hope is Biles doesn’t comment on how clean and fresh Dukie’s anal cavity is nowadays.

I love ESPN

by bluecrip on Sep 29, 2008 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Excellent post as usual ... I love the "Prince rule" reference.

You’re probably right about Vitale going on ad nauseum about K bringing home the gold. Just another reason to turn down the sound.

by Ken Howlett on Sep 29, 2008 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good move

I think we may see a slight change in percentage but it could go up. In the mindless flow of a game, how many NBA wishers just pull up and sling from a distance that the only thing they are certain of is that is way back from the college line. They do this to show the scouts their range. Now with the right range plainly set they will subconsciously keep playing the game and just step to the line and shoot. If they aren’t hitting they will get the green light pulled just like now.

Opening up the middle will be good for the game too. Let the big men play dang it!

I hate watching a team hack, jab and triple team a super star to death down low and I also hate when a sub-par shooter gets hot from 19’9" and changes a game into a one dimensional, bad sequel of Hoosiers. (All of this is horse crap if any of it helps UK in any way :-)

This will make the big guys honest in their games against other big guys, it will make shooters more dangerous by giving them more room to do a little driving and make drivers REALLY dangerous if they can hold their own out at 21 feet.

NOTE: If UK is affected negatively by the line move, I reserve the right to retract this post.

Changing how you think will change what you think.

by wilson452 on Sep 29, 2008 3:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

IMO

I think it will make a big change, kids are gonna keep shooting it cause they “think” they can hit it. Alot of poor shooters shooting it a foot further away equals much lower FG.

" I believe in pipedreams"

by Magnoliacat on Sep 29, 2008 4:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

good point

That may be.

DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!

by davw83 on Sep 29, 2008 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Voted "Some" But Really Little Impact On UK

Only Meeks, Miller, and Porter are consistent 3-pt FG shooters.

by FortyYearCatFan on Sep 29, 2008 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

One positive

that no one has mentioned,is the fact that almost all schools will have 2 three-point lines painted on the floor( Women’s remains the same).But since Rupp is used by the men,it will look nice to have just one line out there.Wonder how many other schools can do that?Ahhh,it’s good to be elite : )

by -Zoso- on Sep 29, 2008 6:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

2 three point lines

The high school line is not changing, so Rupp would still need the old line there too if the sweet 16 is still going to be there.

by cthom on Sep 30, 2008 6:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

the women will play some games there. I think 4. could be wrong.

I had heard recently from a vendor to UK that provides signage and cut vinyl signs and things of that nature that an experiment had taken place at the training center to find exactly what color the men like and then a much contrasted color for women and high school would be selected after that. So we will have two lines. But we have gotten input apparently from “the boys in blue” what they like best at least.

Changing how you think will change what you think.

by wilson452 on Sep 30, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually this year there will be no women's games at Rupp.

They are trying to establish a true “home-court advantage” in Memorial … whatever that means.

by Ken Howlett on Sep 30, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Womens games

So this really means attendance is down and they dont think they can draw enough people to Rupp to not make it embarrassing.

DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!

by davw83 on Sep 30, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One thing about Rupp's design

When it is empty, It is EMPTY!

Just ask Phil Collins or any number of Rupp casualties what it is like empty.

Changing how you think will change what you think.

by wilson452 on Sep 30, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure

The attendance for women’s games at Rupp has been pretty good by women’s game standards, so I’m not sure of the actual reason. Of course their stated reason may be truthful.

by Ken Howlett on Oct 1, 2008 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We do average pretty good

for women’s ball. I would say that they are truthful and that if you can get 6k people in a room, I would want memorial jam packed, hot and sticky over a cavernous cold Rupp.

Changing how you think will change what you think.

by wilson452 on Oct 6, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Short Versus Long Term

First, the results of the poll show what studies of polling always show: Given 5 choices with no definitive answer most respondents will choose the middle, thus “some” leads. Second, the answer depends on the time factor: Short term, say first couple of seasons, there will be minimum effect in percentage of attempts and makes, and perhaps a bit greater effect on the game overall. Long term the effect will be negligible due primarily to the ability of humans to learn, adapt, and improve performance.

by Wild Weasel on Sep 30, 2008 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs