I can’t see us beating a Miami squad that beat Duke, Clemson, BC, and Virginia Tech last year en route to finishing well above us in both my (Pomeroy) ratings and the RPI. They also beat Mississippi State in Mississippi, if that tells you anything. A very solid ball club with a very good coach.

Kansas State had a top twenty Pomeroy rating last year, and was top fifty in the RPI as well (above us, by the way). Also, both their offense and their defense were ranked in the top 25 in efficiency, whereas our rankings were 81st and 44th, respectively. The game comes early in the season for us, and I don’t see us having the edge in this one. Wild Card: they lost their great coach to West Virginia, so they may have a little adjusting of their own to do.

If we have to play West Virginia instead of Iowa, we will likely pick up another L. They were top twenty in both RPI and Pomeroy last year (11-7 in the Big East), and finished in the Sweet Sixteen. They beat Duke, Pittsburgh, Arizona, and UConn. Oh, and did I mention that they just picked up one hell of a good coach from Kansas State?

Sadly, I also concur that what I will see in Chapel Hill is a good, old-fashioned butt kicking, with us on the wrong side of the boot. The Cardinals should be able to handle us as well, alas.

Is everyone writing off the IU game as a complete joke? I fear taking it lightly. See App. State vs. Michigan, last year on the gridiron. And oh, yeah—we play App. State this year in basketball. I wonder whether we are completely free of the Gardner-Webb curse, and can eliminate any surprises within the “Can’t Lose” category of schools..

Barring any surprises, we are probably at 11-4 going into conference play. Write it down. I would be ecstatic at 12-3.

With respect to the SEC schedule, I see the Alabama and Arkansas games both being iffy for us, and Florida and Tennessee might sweep us, looking at their recruiting classes and their returning rosters. We split with the Mississippi schools, split with Vandy, and suddenly we have to win every other game left on the schedule just to stay at 8-8 in the conference. Not a rosy scenario. I would be happy with 10-6, and I think it’s more realistic.

I wish I could be as optimistic as y’all, but I conservatively but realistically see us at or very near 21-10 going into the conference tourney.

If we add in the BCG second year factor (he’s always exceeded expectations in the second year at a new school), I could rationalize us perhaps being as good as 12-3 Non Conf., and 12-4 in Conf., for a rosy scenario of 24-7 going into the post season. I do think that is, however, looking at the schedule through rose-colored glasses.

But danged if that’s not what I’m wearing today!

6 W then 24 at UTEP. 21 W then 22 at TAMU.

Average increase of 9 W in his 2nd year at a school.

You know, whenever I ‘m asked who I pull for when Duke plays North Carolina, I say, “Injuries.” I hope I’m kidding, but then, sometimes I wonder.