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A look at football recruiting

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I think many of us believe the Kentucky has upgraded their football recruiting.  We see Brooks getting mostly 3 star players these days, but how do we compare with the rest of the SEC?

Here are a couple of tables, the one on the left sorted by average "star" ranking and the one on the right sorted by average "Rivals Ranking" for the ranked recruits in the SEC for 2009 so far.  Here's how this all shakes out:

Quartile School Avg. Stars Avg. RR Count
Quartile School Avg. Stars Avg. RR Count
1st LSU 3.9 5.84 10
1st LSU 3.9 5.84 10
Florida 3.71 5.81 6
Georgia 3.67 5.83 12
Georgia 3.67 5.83 12
Florida 3.71 5.81 6
2nd Tennessee 3.5 5.76 10
2nd Tennessee 3.5 5.76 10
Auburn 3.4 5.72 10
Alabama 3.38 5.75 8
Alabama 3.38 5.75 8
Auburn 3.4 5.72 10
3rd MSU 3.31 5.69 13
3rd MSU 3.31 5.69 13
Arkansas 3.17 5.62 6
Arkansas 3.17 5.62 6
Ole Miss 3 5.56 5
USC 2.86 5.59 7
4th USC 2.86 5.59 7
4th Ole Miss 3 5.56 5
Kentucky 2.8 5.52 10
Vanderbilt 2.75 5.53 4
Vanderbilt 2.75 5.53 4
Kentucky 2.8 5.52 10

Hmm. Doesn't exactly look like UK is setting the world on fire based on these numbers.  Of course, this is nothing like precise -- the class sizes vary wildly, none of the unranked recruits are considered, and there is a long way to go for almost every school before 2009 is done.  This also says nothing about Coach Brooks & Co.'s ability to evaluate talent that the scouts have underrated or missed.  What this is for is just to give you a directional idea of how far Kentucky has to go to catch up with the rest of the SEC. 

Keep in mind that 3 or 4 of the classes are comparatively small right now, so there is quite a bit of margin for error.  But you can see that it is highly unlikely for UK's class to rise above the 3rd quartile in these measures.  That places us firmly in the bottom half of the SEC, and if you look at the teams in there with us, you will find the ones that we have been traditionally very competitive with (with the exception of Spurrier's Gamecocks, who for some reason have our number despite not being tremendously more talented).

I wrote back last year that it is a monumental task to build a program in the SEC, and despite Kentucky's success over the last two years, we see here in somewhat stark relief just exactly what I was talking about.  Even successful bowl appearances and a quarterback who was mentioned at one time as a possible Heisman contender did not substantially change how we are perceived by the 4 and 5 star studs.

The next question I would ask is how is Kentucky doing year over year?  This table gives us an idea since 2004 (when Rivals began assigning Rivals Ratings):

Year >= 3 star >=5.4 RR
Delta Star Delta RR
2009 8 10 -1 -2
2008 9 12 -1 1
2007 10 11 -3 -8
2006 13 19 9 10
2005 4 9 -7 -4
2004 11 13 -- --

Players without RR considered min for star rank

Now this looks a little more promising.  While 2004 looked like a great class on paper, a surprisingly small number of the most highly-ranked players ever made it onto the playing field.   2005 looks pretty weak, but a number of those players, including Zipp Duncan, Braxton Kelley, Jeremy Jarmon, E. J. Adams and Tim Mastay have contributed significantly.

But the thing I like best is that Brooks is starting to become consistent in getting better players.  We still have a long way to go in 2009's class, and it could get significantly better pretty easily.  Generally speaking, the higher rated the player, the more likely he is to be physically ready to contribute right away.  Brooks and his staff have done a great job at developing the lower rated guys, but by consistently bringing in more talent, the UK staff is placing us in a position to be competitive in the SEC by improving our ready depth from year to year.

We still have a very long way to go to compete anywhere near the top of the SEC, if we ever can.  But the longest journey begins with one step, and right now it looks as if our recruiting is stepping in the right direction.  Going .500 in the SEC should be our next goal, and while that looks pretty improbable this year, it looks a lot more doable in the near future.

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3 Stars

If you look at those numbers, the one thing that jumps out at me is that getting 3 Star recruits is certainly an improvement for Brooks & Crew. If they can make those players their baseline, they can begin to fill out the team with the kind of depth that is needed to compete year in and year out.

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Jul 22, 2008 5:07 PM EDT   0 recs

They actually ...

... have 3 or 4 now. Beisner, Hilbert, Bryan the Intern, and Matt by my last count.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Jul 22, 2008 6:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ah...

... I got ya. :-)

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Jul 23, 2008 7:04 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Recruiting: Excellent commentary, Tru

What we have to remember about UK’s recruiting is that their “starting point” is so much lower than the SEC powerhouse programs that Kentucky could significantly upgrade their recruiting ( which they have ), but still not be on par with Florida, UT, Auburn, Georgia, etc..

The caliber of athletes coming into the program have improved tremendously over the last 4-5 years, in my opinion. If the program continues to go to bowl games then they will begin to see an increase in the 4-5 star players showing interest, ala the two big-time quarterbacks showin’ UK some love at the moment.

A two year record of 16-10 is a nice start, but it’s all about winning 3,4,5 years in a row.

by Ken Howlett on Jul 23, 2008 3:39 AM EDT   0 recs

Thanks ...

Yeah, that’s pretty much how I see it, I suppose. I feel like our recruiting has improved, but it’s hard to prove by looking at the numbers. The really sad fact is, the 4-stars we have recruited in recent years never seem to make it onto the field—DeMetrius Goode, D.J. Stafford and Micah Jones, for example.

Still, high-quality 3-stars should be good enough to win a bit in the SEC. But can we ever get to .500 consistently in this league without significantly upgrading our quality of recruit?

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Jul 23, 2008 7:16 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Winning in this league
Still, high-quality 3-stars should be good enough to win a bit in the SEC. But can we ever get to .500 consistently in this league without significantly upgrading our quality of recruit?

Look at that list of schools in our league. The top 6 schools on your list are LSU, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, and Alabama. Those are all national championship caliber programs. To be in the top half of this league is to be a contender for a national title year in and year out. I may be a bit pessimistic in this view, but I don’t see that as a realistic goal for UK. I would be overjoyed if we were routinely number 7 on that list. It would still be good enough to make us the 3rd or 4th best team in any other conference in the country.

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Jul 23, 2008 7:43 AM EDT   0 recs

Crap. That's why they have a "Preview Post" button I suppose...

I still want an edit button!!!!!!!

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Jul 23, 2008 7:44 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Let me try to reformat my post so it makes sense...
Still, high-quality 3-stars should be good enough to win a bit in the SEC. But can we ever get to .500 consistently in this league without significantly upgrading our quality of recruit?

Look at that list of schools in our league. The top 6 schools on your list are LSU, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, and Alabama. Those are all national championship caliber programs. To be in the top half of this league is to be a contender for a national title year in and year out. I may be a bit pessimistic in this view, but I don’t see that as a realistic goal for UK. I would be overjoyed if we were routinely number 7 on that list. It would still be good enough to make us the 3rd or 4th best team in any other conference in the country.

(Okay… I’ve previewed it now, and that’s how I meant for it to look.)

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Jul 23, 2008 7:45 AM EDT   0 recs

PIYF (Preview Is Your Friend)

But you make good points as well. In any other league, UK would likely be upper mid-pack, except maybe in the Big 12. But the SEC is where we are, and where we will most likely stay. What we do, we have to do here.

I don’t think .500 in the SEC is too much to ask every year or so, though. If we are really to upgrade our program, we have to become consistently better than Arkansas, Ole Miss, MSU and Vanderbilt. Right now, I can’t say we are there.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Jul 23, 2008 9:51 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Recruting

We focus so much on the SEC that we forget our nonconference portion of the slate. I know most of them are patsys but while our recent upgrade in recruiting wont put us at the top of the SEC it will help us to win the games we should. Here at UK that is incredibly important to post season success. If we can win the games we should every year it will lessen the pressure on the conference portion of the schedule to pull an upset of gigantic porportions just to get bowl elgible. Every year we go to a bowl our recruiting will get better. I think its in the realm of possibility that UK could eventually challenge these other programs for supremacy in the SEC BUT were that to occur I think it woudl take another 4-5 years of consistent success.

DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!

by davw83 on Jul 23, 2008 9:18 AM EDT   0 recs

Recruiting

I can spell I just choose not to.

DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!

by davw83 on Jul 23, 2008 9:18 AM EDT   0 recs

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