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Break down of the next 3 games for SEC leaders

Since the SEC season is 30% over AND the Cats seem to be in the thick of SEC race I thought I would poke around a little and and break down the next three games of SEC play.

I am only going to look at teams with UK's record or better.

TENNESSEE - Have looked strong but not unbeatable ;).  They have a tough week ahead. Florida, LSU, and Arkansas.  

Tenn vs Florida - Looking to come back from the Ark. loss.  The Vols get them at    home so I'll give Tenn. the edge, but only barely.

Tenn vs LSU - Ok, so this ones not tough on paper...but it is a SEC road game.
 Advantage: Tenn...by a lot

Tenn vs Arkansas - This should be a great game.  Love what Pel is doing with the       hogs...wish we didn't have to play them.  Again, the Vols get to face a tough opponent at home.  If the Hogs execute the way they did against the Gators they win this game.  Still as a home game I'll give a slight edge to Tennessee.

OVERALL: Tennessee could/should win all of these, but my gut says they drop one. Conf. record after these games : 8-2

FLORIDA - Stong but inconsistent...First half lapses killed them last week.  Ahead they have Tennessee away, and Georgia and LSU at home.

Fla vs Tenn - See comments above. Vols have the edge

Fla vs Georgia and LSU - Home games against the dregs of the SEC East and West...Gators should take care of business.

OVERALL: Gators might be able to beat Tenn at home, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Conf. record after these games : 7-3

ARKANSAS - Wow, these guys are heating up at the right time.  The next 3 game have no pansys for the Hogs.  They get Ole Miss at home then travel to play Tenn, and Miss. State.

Ark vs Ole Miss - The Rebs started the season strong, but haven't been playing the way they can since conference play started.  The Hogs should win this one, but it might be closer than they like.

Ark vs Tenn - See comments above, I like the hogs chances here even playing away.

Ark vs Miss. State - The battle for king of the west.  State get home court advantage and will want revenge for the drubbing they took last week when they traveled to Fayettville.  I think that will be the deciding factor in this game...unless Ark lost to Tenn.  If the Hogs drop the Tenn game I see them coming back and taking this match-up.  Arkansas is really the stronger team.

OVERALL - Hogs are playing great and CAN win all these games, but I see them 2-1 in these games.  Conf. record after these games : 7-3

MISSISSIPPI STATE - Strong team..now, kind of.  They didn't look the part when the coference games started, but much like UK they seem to have come together at the right time.  Dropped the last two games (Ark, Tenn) and looking to recover.  They face Bama at home, Travel to face Auburn, then host the Hogs.

State vs Bama - Home game.  I think the Bulldogs defend the home turf

State vs Auburn - Auburn is on a skid that looks to have no bottom.  They will  need to win this one just to end a losing streak  that will reach 4 games after they play UK on Wed.  But they won't. They haven't been able to meet the challenge this year.

State vs Ark -  Great game, Should be a good one to watch.  They can beat the Hogs, but I am unsure if they will.

OVERALL - I can see the bulldogs takeing all 3 games, but they should be afraid of that Ark rematch.  Revenge for that loss may be the only motivator that can get them past the hogs.  All in All, I think State is soon to fall out of the hunt. They close the season with some tough road games and I think that will end their chances.  Conf. record after these games : 7-3

Which brings me to the Cats...

KENTUCKY -  Rolling strong, but depleted...the injury list may be the deciding factor in these games.  The Cats travel to Auburn, then host Bama, before heading into the rematch with Vandy.  UK has arguably the easiest schedule over the next 3 games of any one on this list..Florida can probably stake some claim to that, but they have to go to Tennessee...and that renders their argument null and void.

UK vs Auburn - Like  I said before, Auburn is on the skids...but we will be no where near full strength. Does anyone remember what that looked like? Any way, I still think the Cats pull this one out with Ramel and Crawford not playing.  Crawford may get some minutes, but not many.

UK vs Bama - Home game against Bama....mark it down.  Cats take this one.

UK vs Vandy - I was scared of this rematch after we beat Vandy in Rupp, now not so much.  Vandy's home court is a hard place to play, but right now Vandy is unravelling.  They may get it back together this season...maybe not.  I say UK beats them if Ramel is back.  I know that makes me sound like a homer, but I think we beat them if we are healthier than we are today.

OVERALL:  UK will benefit from the fact that the other 4 teams in the SEC race *have to play each other*.  If it plays out as I have scripted it UK stands at 7 - 2 .  A half game behind Tenn and a half game ahead of everyone else.  Not too bad.  

So that how I see it.  Any thoughts, Comments, Snide Remarks?

0 recs  |  Comment 9 comments

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Very good.
I hope it goes just as you say, but I am less sanguine about Florida.  We'll see, but if UT beats them, that's a 2 game skid, and freshman confidence is very fragile.

Arkansas looked like world beaters Saturday.  Not sure anyone can handle them right now, but their perimeter game is hit or miss.

Tennessee is in for a tough stretch.  This will tell the tale about them.

by Truzenzuzex on Feb 4, 2008 6:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Alabama scres me..
They are long and and athletic, the type of team that gives UK fits because of the matchups.

Hendrix is very good. If they had Steele they would be very tough.

But, it would not shock me if UK went undefeated in their next three.

Thanks for the breakdown.

by Ken Howlett on Feb 5, 2008 2:09 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I agree...
 That there are some tough match-ups vs Alabama....but its a home game and this UK team seems to have decided that they are NOT losing at home again.  Not saying they won't lose at home again, but if they play with the grit they came with vs Vandy or Tenn....Bama gets beat down.  This Tide team hasn't shown that kind of intesity and I think the second half of that game will see the Cats pulling away.

by sylvar on Feb 5, 2008 9:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Arkansas
gets Tennessee by three. I know it is a few weeks away, but I am curious as to how the fans at Rupp will respond when Pelphrey is announced as head coach of Arkansas during lineup intros. My hope, especially since I live in Arkansas and work for a tv station that is the HOME OF THE HOGS, is that he gets a standing ovation. It truly is an inspiration to see a UK legend coaching at another SEC school. As someone posted on one of the discussion threads, he didn't have the greatest talent, but he made up for that with heart, determination and HUSTLE!!! He has begun to instill that passion in his Hog players. Many Hog fans have been having the belief that Pelphrey was a bad choice. I have been preaching patience to them (sound eerily familiar for our camp?) and with the thrashing of the baby Gators, not a just beat em by 10, but a full throttle beat down, I think the fans are starting to come around.

A UT win would put Pelphrey in the Sutton status around here. He already helped his cause in non-conference play when the Hogs beat Mizzou whose head coach (Mike Anderson) was Nolan's asst for 17 years and wasn't even mentioned as a replacement for Richardson. Bad move by the University (fanwise, & looking at his UAB and Mizzou squads maybe teamwise.) Whatever the reasoning it has led to Pelly Pel to get the HC job there and is making more of a name for himself.

Should the Hogs beat UK Pelphrey will get even longer to work out the kinks in Hog basketball. Should the game become a rivalry again then Pelphrey will get legend status here.

Pelphrey, beloved son of UK basketball an icon and hero to Hog basktball. Weird, huh? That's why I love SEC basketball.

by bluecrip on Feb 5, 2008 1:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Pelphery Intro
My guess is he gets the standing O.  First time back and all....let him hang a few L's on us and the reception will tone down quite a bit..LOL.  But this first time back....He will get a hero's welcome.

by sylvar on Feb 5, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Tenn vs Fla
Tenn falls behind early, but recovers and dominates.  Florida shows its youth.

One prediction down :)

Here's hoping the Cats hold up their end tonight.

by sylvar on Feb 6, 2008 11:32 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yess!
UK gets past Auburn despite not being able to get a foul call OR hold on to the ball.

Miss St. flushes the Tide at home

3 for 3 so far

by sylvar on Feb 6, 2008 10:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

To bad I'm not a gambling man
5 for 5 last night although I wouldn't have felt bad if LSU had managed to beat Tenn....Haven't missed one yet, not that I made any stunning predictions.  Only 3 team tied or ahead of us now...And all three of them play each other in the next week. If Arkansas runs the table it could really make things interesting.

by sylvar on Feb 10, 2008 8:28 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Tennessee
Tennessee looked pathetic versus LSU. Of course LSU played probably their best defensive game in over a year.

Kinda makes Brady look exactly like what he is, a mediocre coach at best. But hey, he's no Dale Brown.

by Ken Howlett on Feb 10, 2008 3:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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