Forget it, Cats fans, Tipton says 'No NCAAs'

by JL Blue on Feb 17, 2008 9:00 AM EST in Commentary

Another gem from erstwhile UK grump Jerry Tipton, whose ability to write stories that piss off UK fans seems as limitless as his love for quoting "experts" in defense of an already decided-upon premise.

The latest is his Sunday notebook which tells UK fans, in effect, stop believing because there's no shot at the NCAA tournament.

The 93-52 loss at Vanderbilt on Tuesday sounded the death knell for Kentucky's chances of receiving an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Now UK must win the SEC Tournament to get in.

That's the opinion of several college basketball observers from around the country.

What I love here, as a writer myself, is the subtle structure whereby Tipton allows himself the "out" of saying it's other people's opinion, not his. But the sentence structure is so awkward, and we have to assume intentional, as to suggest that it is in fact Tipton who is saying this, but with backing from a few pundits.

I'm not trying to suggest that Tipton's premise is inherently flawed. Hell, a 41-point loss on national TV just as you play your way back onto the NCAA bubble is about as nasty as it gets.

But why write this now? And why paint a picture of a situation with no other outcomes? It's stupid.

Say the Cats inexplicably win out, including a 15-point road win over Tennessee. You're saying because of the Vandy loss, "the death knell" has been sounded, so no reason to think otherwise. If UK loses only the UT game, finishes 12-4 in the conference and wins two games in the SEC tourney that "Kentucky lost its battle," so there's really no hope, despite the fact that such an outcome would likely have Kentucky at 18-11 (12-4) with an RPI in the 40-50 range. Yeah, bubble clearly burst. End of discussion.

Huh?

At no point does Tipton take the logical route, which would be a simple addendum of "for now."

And he wonders why people think he's a negative ninny?

0 recs | Comment 15 comments

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Don't Agree With Tipton

Cats should W at least 5 of next 6 plus 2 SECT games for 20 W. IF SO, that's 12-4 and 2nd in SEC East and runner-up in SECT.

That would be 20-12 and one of Top 4 SEC teams.

That's an NCAA bid on Selection Sunday.

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 17, 2008 9:32 AM EST 0 recs

As hard as it is to believe

One game never decides the fate of a team making the field in March - the selection committee has said so on many occasions. One game doesn't get you in, and one game doesn't leave you out - it's the body of work that's important.

The loss to Vandy was bad, but is not in line with how UK played before that game, and will most likely not be in line with how they play after (the win over LSU says as much). The committee takes that into account.

Also, UK has already beaten Vandy at home (an important point). Again, something the committee takes into account.

Teams have bad games. And solid teams get beat on the road by good teams all the time. It happens, but it's only one loss and anybody who says that 1 loss has a disproportionate affect on the selection to the tournament hasn't been paying attention the last several years.

UK still might not make the tournament, but it won't be because they lost on the road, in conference, to a very good Vandy team.

Looking for a rock to wind a piece of string around.

by JLeverenz on Feb 17, 2008 10:25 AM EST 0 recs

Tiption ...

is a negative ninny. He isn't wrong, but I got exactly the same impression reading the statement you quoted. Why such a damning sentence?

The other thing is that despite the truth of his point that many national observers may think us done, none of these people are on the NCAA selection committee. We have yet to fully understand the workings of this committee, and never fail to be surprised by some of the things that come out of there.

In the final analysis, what Kentucky must do is win, and if we win the SEC tournament, none of this speculation means a darn thing. I happen to think that if the Cats can avoid playing on the first day of the tournament, we have a very solid chance to get to the finals, and no team likely to wind up there with them will want the game more.

Just keep winning, and Tipton's naysaying will be irrelevant.

by Truzenzuzex on Feb 17, 2008 11:25 AM EST 0 recs

"Experts"

The citing of "experts" opinions is lazy and weak on Tiptons part. I am not a Tipton basher, like many others, but I do feel he is way off base with this article.

How many times have the "experts" been wrong about such prognostications? More than a few, I say. That's one of the reasons they grill and flambe the Selection Committee Chair on national television about some of the perceived slights of the Tournament Committee. Embarrassment at their being wrong about some of the teams included and excluded is the primary motivation behind the public grilling.

Another reason the "experts" are today saying that UK is out, is becasue the Vandy loss is still fresh in their collective minds. Selection Sunday is March 16, another month away. If UK takes care of business, the beat down in Nashville will not carry the weight it does today. Besides, Selection Sunday is also my birthday, so that's a good omen for the 'Cats :)

The only guy I pay any attentin to at all when it comes to projectiing the Field of 65 is ESPN's Joe Lunardi. He has an uncanny ability to predict the field. He has missed only a few teams over the last several years. His projections at this point are based on if the Selection Committee started their work today. He doesn't guess how teams will do the last month of the season.

Tipton's column is simply his attempt to stir debate and sell papers, which is one of his job descriptions. Looking at UK's remaining games, and witnessing how far their RPI has risen in the last few weeks, logic dictates that they have an excellent chance at making the field, once again, if they take care of business.

Something to think about, how far would Kentucky's RPI risen if UAB could have held on to beat Memphis yesterday? The Blazers blew that game...big time! UK would be at least in the mid-60's if UAB could have played competently the last few minutes.

by Ken Howlett on Feb 17, 2008 2:23 PM EST up 0 recs

UK Got #8 Seeds The Past 2 Years...

With 21-12 (2006) and 21-11 (2007) team W-L records when bids were issued.

UK record close to those (such as 20-12) should result in another NCAA bid but maybe 10, 11, 12 seed.

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 17, 2008 3:18 PM EST up 0 recs

Apples and Oranges..

this season UK has losses to G-W and other cupcakes which is really going to hurt UK's chances. However, I do believe UK gets in; Florida looks like the the bibble team that won't get in.

by BeatUL on Feb 18, 2008 3:19 PM EST up 0 recs

The Back Plan

With respect to the SEC tourney, I think the CATS have a very legitimate chance to win it if two things can happen. For one, we need that first round bye, which means finishing in the top two in our division. The other necessity is that either Vanderbilt or Tennessee must be upset by someone other than UK that weekend. I firmly believe we can take down either one of these teams on a neutral court, but don't think we could beat both on the same weekend. I think we have seen enough to believe that the CATS can compete with any other team we may see down in Atlanta though.
On the other hand, if we in fact to earn a first round bye in Atlanta it is most likely that we will have finished in the top 3 in the SEC - and as long as we don't leave a stinker on the court March 14th the committee would have a very hard time not giving us an invite.
Ultimately, I don't think winning the SEC tourney is a likely scenario for the Big Blue Nation going to the big dance because to be in position to win the SEC tournament, the team will likely have already played themselves into an at large bid. Conversely, if the CATS do not play themselves into an at large bid over the next 3 weeks, they will have likely thrown away their chances at an SEC tournament championship as well.

by cdnWildcatfan on Feb 17, 2008 11:47 AM EST 0 recs

Excellent Shot

Personally, I think that UK has rebounded nicely and that y'all have a very good chance at making the Dance.

Obviously, it isn't a gimme after the rought start, but most of the remaining schedule is winnable and then there is the SECT and we all know that UK has a pretty good shot at winning it and getting the automatic bid.

Steven
www.ACCvsSEC.com

Steven (TaySC) www.ACCvsSEC.com

by TaySC on Feb 17, 2008 4:24 PM EST 0 recs

UK vs UF

It could come down to this. If UK beats UF at Rupp, then it wil lget very interesting as UK already has better quality wins.. although one much worse loss.

Right now, i would guess UK is in and UF is on the way out.

by BeatUL on Feb 17, 2008 4:53 PM EST 0 recs

Bubble Watch

This weeks Bubble Watch over on ESPN acknowledges that our chances aren't all done. Basically, it lays out the same scenario that we've all be saying ever since the win over UT.

Here's a question: If we win out with the exception of a loss at Tenn, we end up 12-4. If Vandy wins out, they're 12-4. Who gets the tie-breaker for the first round bye?

by chirop1 on Feb 17, 2008 11:25 PM EST 0 recs

Better Record Vs SEC East Opponents

I think that would be the tiebreaker?

by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 18, 2008 8:13 AM EST 0 recs

I agree that one game does not a season make...

However, after such a crushing loss to a conference foe, isn't it unlikely that the Cats have a team that will "win out"? Do most of you realistically think that or are you being optimistic in your support of the Cay-yats? I've said it before, I'll say it again; win the SEC tournament and we're in!

Stinky Blue

by Stinky Blue on Feb 18, 2008 1:09 PM EST 0 recs

Remaining games

Home against Georgia (beat them already)
Home against Arkansas (tough game... but winnable at Rupp)
Home against Ole Miss (slumping)
at Tennessee (most seem to chalk this up as a loss)
at South Carolina (tough on the road... but winnable)
Home against Florida (tough game... but winnable at Rupp)

So why do you think that's not reasonable? Is it difficult? Absolutely. But its do-able.

by chirop1 on Feb 18, 2008 1:20 PM EST up 0 recs

I would only be discouraged if

The game against Vandy was indicative of how the Cats had been playing the whole conference season.

But it's not.

It's like the old Sesame Street song: "One of these things is not like the other things, one of these things doesn't belong..."

The game at Vandy was so vastly different from the other 9 conference games UK has played this season that no one can make any kind of real argument that it represents the "true" UK team.

UK's performance in the other 9 games is the true team, not the 1 game at Vandy. And that's why I believe they can go 5-1 in the remaining stretch and win a few in the tournament.

Looking for a rock to wind a piece of string around.

by JLeverenz on Feb 18, 2008 2:11 PM EST up 0 recs