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SAGARIN and POMEROY Say CATS are TOP 25

[Promoted from the diaries --ed.]

 

After seven games the Pomeroy rankings have us as the 18th best team in the country, and we are starting to be far enough into the season where these rankings are becoming meaningful and more reliable.  (The Pomeroy rankings are completely scientific/statistical, in that they take no subjective considerations into account – performance only.)  Please remember, however, that most of the top teams are still getting their stats against cupcake competition. 

 

The Sagarin ratings corroborate the legitimacy of that assessment, ranking us at 19th in the Predictor category and 24th in the mixed category, which averages Predictor with pure Won/Lost record, taking no cognizance of margin of victory.

 

Pomeroy now rates our defense the 6th best in the country, with Louisville’s coming in above us at 3rd, and Mississippi State’s coming in at 29th.  L.S.U.’s is 45th, and South Carolina’s 48th.

 

UK is 10th in the country at denying the assist (Louisville is 1st).

UK is 12th in per centage of opponents’ shots blocked (Tubby’s Gophers are 6th).

UK is 23rd in defending the 2-pt. shot, holding opponents to 39.6% (Vandy is 4th, Murray State 24th, UNC 26th, and Louisville 31st).

 

Florida is Number 1 in getting steals.  VMI is 7th, and Tubby’s Gophers are 17th.

 

This does not look like the year of the three pointer in the SEC.  At 82nd, Florida is the only SEC team in the top 100 nationally in the per centage of its shots taken being from 3 (although Vandy is 101st).  VMI is 5th, and Louisville is 30th.  As our three-point defense is not good, that suggests that to some extent Florida and especially Louisville could be the tougher games for us this year, as the VMI game was.

 

Offensively, we do not rank highly in terms of overall efficiency, because we are a turnover machine.  As a for instance, whereas Louisville is 3rd in the country at protecting the ball against the steal, we rank 287th.

 

On the other hand, there are several categories where we do rank nationally, and actually but for the turnovers, I am sure we would see a pretty good offensive efficiency rating.

 

UK is 10th in the country at converting the 2-pt. shot, @ 58.6%.  (Florida is 19th.)

 

We are 33rd nationally at converting free throws, @ 76.3%.  Murray State is 4th, Mississippi is 5th, VMI 9th, and Vandy 29th in that category.

 

We do not rank in the top 100 at converting the three, but Eastern Kentucky is 19th, South Carolina is 26th, and UNC is 34th.

 

An interesting stat that is available is the per centage of the scoring total generated by reason of an assist.  Presumably, the top of this category would be populated by teams that have a smooth offensive flow with polished plays that generally work, whereas the bottom of this category would be populated with teams whose points are generated either out of the mad scramble, or by reason of having productive scoring out of players adept at “getting their own shot.” 

 

One sees good teams on both ends of this category:  Louisville is 3rd in the country, and Alabama is dead last.  Vandy, UK, and UNC are grouped together at 64th, 65th, and 70th respectively, but Duke is 251st, and UCLA is 272nd.  I still think it is better to be on the top side of this category.  Most plays are drawn up to achieve scoring from the assist, not from a Shot-Clock-At-Five-Seconds clear-out.  If your plays are correctly designed for the team you are playing and properly executed, you would expect to be on the top side of this category.  (On the other hand, despite being 272nd in this category, Duke is 24th nationally in offensive efficiency, maybe because they get to the foul line so much, which eliminates the assist being credited.)

1 recs  |  Comment 37 comments |

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I Like Sagarin And Pomeroy

Both had the Cats in Top 25 even in the tough years of 2006 and 2007.

by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 5, 2008 7:08 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

True.

But I wonder if they really were good enough to be there. Statistically, I suppose you have to say that they were.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Dec 5, 2008 8:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I love looking at the Pomeroys stats late in the season. Pure nostalgia rush.

It’s so easy to see at a glance everything the team has done over the course of the season, game to game. You get to look at the pace figures and offensive and defensive efficiency figures (among countless others) for every game and say, “Oh, yeah, that’s that game where nobody rebounded,” or “That’s the one where we had 16 points at the half,” or “That’s the game where we shot 70.2%.”

Pomeroy charts a “LUCK” statistic and what can best be described as a “CONSISTENCY” statistic that are interesting to watch. They reflect, essentially, how often a team performs in the actual game in accordance with what its previously generated statistics suggest it will, and whether when the unexpected happens, it tends to favor or hurt the team.

Last year’s team was 322nd in the country in consistency (I suppose that comes from beating an undefeated Vandy, almost knocking off Tennessee at home, and losing to Gardner-Webb).

Tubby’s last UK team was among the “unluckiest” that year, something like 255th.

by Ken Pomeroy on Dec 5, 2008 10:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Luck stat ...

… kind of a weird thing, but there is no doubt that luck has a lot to do with close wins and losses.

I also enjoy looking at Pomeroy’s stats, they can tell you a lot about a team.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Dec 5, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Tubby Won More Close Games Than He Lost

Joe Hall was lucky that Scott May was injured in March 75. Lucky that his gamble against Fla St in March 78 paid off. Lucky that UK played the Regional games in Rupp Arena in March 84.

Tubby was lucky that Coach K had no timeouts left in March 1998.

by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 5, 2008 3:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Based On Stats YES

Based on results NO.

The 2006 team competed evenly with UConn (#1 seed) in NCAA.

The 2007 team competed less evenly with Kansas (#1 seed) in NCAA. It was close until Morris got into foul trouble.

by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 5, 2008 8:07 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thursday's games moved us ...

…up one spot in the Pomeroy rankings (to 17th), and down one in the Sagarin rankings to 25th, just behind Florida at 24th.

The only other team with two losses ranked above us is UCLA.

by Ken Pomeroy on Dec 5, 2008 9:48 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

7 games still isn't a big sample size

It’s enough to start looking at the numbers and get a sense of what a team does well and what it does poorly, but it’s still way too early to make any kind of judgment about where teams fall in relation to each other.

Two examples: Connecticut is not the 11th best team in the nation, more like top two or three. That’s based on having watched them play a game or two. They haven’t played the competition (199th Non Conf SOS) for that to show up yet though.

Second example is Clemson, who I have seen every game save one. Clemson is going to be pretty good this year, I think they are the 3rd best team in the ACC, but they aren’t the 14th best team in the nation, at least not yet.

That’s a good recap of where UK stands right now though. It will be interesting to see how those numbers change as we get into conference season. Once we get into January we’ll have enough games that early fluky performances (for all teams) will have less influence on the numbers and schedules will start to even out somewhat as everybody gets into conference season.

"That's not a Sherman tank, it's Frank Thomas!" - Monkeyball

by JLeverenz on Dec 5, 2008 10:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Well ...

… “sample size” isn’t really what is lacking, because your sample size is 100% of the games played so far this season. We could, of course, sample previous years and increase our sample size, but the player variables would render that questionable.

What you can’t do with stats at this point are predict the future, because the variables that affect them are too large in proportion to the number of games played. Right now, the variations in the quality of teams played, pace of player improvement, team chemistry and other such things can have a disproportionate effect on the stats, so we have to be careful of drawing too many conclusions for the future.

But the stats right now reflect the reality right now — your available population of games is 100% reflected in the data. What we’ll see is the game-to-game impact on the stats become progressively smaller as more of the season is complete, but that doesn’t change this moment in time. As of this moment, using the Pomeroy and Sagarin methods, the teams are ranked where they should be. In two months, that could be wildly different. It’s similar to a poll taken in January for an election held in November. The poll is statistically valid, but that doesn’t mean that it’s a reliable indicator of how the race will turn out.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Dec 5, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I intended that to mean 7 games as a sample of the season

Though I can see how it could be read differently. Put another way, no one would make sweeping generalizations about UK’s season based on the first 2 games, just like no one is going to award an MVP or CY Young in baseball based on performance in the month of April. Mathematically, 7 games isn’t all that different from 2 games and given how the rankings are composed I’m not going to get too excited about UK’s placement in either at this point – there just hasn’t been enough games played to believe that we have any kind of grasp on how good teams are.

To me, the real question when looking at Pomeroy’s stats (and I agree they are fun to read) is to ask how much of what UK has done is sustainable for the rest of the season?

Despite all the turnover problems the offense is still above average (99th in adjusted efficiency) thanks mostly to eFG% (10th) and FT Rate (20th). UK’s eFG% is built mostly around 2 pt FG% which is more sustainable over the course of the season since it includes easier shots and less prone to bad streaks. Likewise, given how the majority of UK’s shots are 2’s, I would expect the FT rate to also be sustainable throughout the season. UK gets most of it’s shots inside and that’s going to draw a lot of fouls. Combine that with a very good FT% and we can start to see why UK has had success despite all the turnovers. Even if these numbers come down a little bit, I think we’ll see so much improvement in taking care of the ball that the overall offense will still improve.

I don’t think UK is really the 17th best team in the country, at least not at their current performance level. I do think there is legitimate reason for optimism that the team can and will improve to get to the point where they are a top 20 or better team.

"That's not a Sherman tank, it's Frank Thomas!" - Monkeyball

by JLeverenz on Dec 5, 2008 1:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder less ...

… about “sustainability” than about whether the numbers reflect the competition to a greater or lesser degree. If a greater degree, well, then we should expect them to decline when we get into conference play (although the SEC looks pretty weak to me right now compared to almost all the other BCS conferences).

I am wondering if the high turnovers early in the season might not be an anomaly. Most of our turnovers have not resulted from significant pressure from the opponent, but rather from UK trying to do more than was there — making the tough pass, cross-court passes, dribbling through three defenders, etc.). I expect we will see the turnover numbers stay down in the 16-18 range where they were last year, and maybe even improve from there a little bit. Our ballhandling should not be this bad.

Also, as guys like Galloway and Liggins gain confidence, I expect to see more confident ballhandling and fewer empty possessions. That should raise our eFG% even further, and if we continue to see progress from Liggins in the 3-point shooting area, I have no idea how good we can be.

I think I would agree that I wouldn’t put UK in the top 20 yet, but if we have a positive result tomorrow, I may be inclined to put them in the top 25. They certainly played like at least a top 25 team against Lamar, but you have to worry about sustaining that effort. If we can, maybe 17 will turn out to be too low.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Dec 5, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Road Game Wins!!!
I think I would agree that I wouldn’t put UK in the top 20 yet, but if we have a positive result tomorrow, I may be inclined to put them in the top 25

Rupp is such a homecourt advantage (much like Freedom Hall, Dean Dome, Cameron, etc), I don’t think a teams real standing can be made until you see how they play on the road.

'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'

by HozeKing on Dec 5, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with that point, but...

… UK does not go on the road until the Loserville game, and could be 12-2 heading into that game… I think at some point during that stretch, you would have to put UK in the top 20-25…???

I can’t imagine UK being, say 9-2 or 10-2 and not being ranked…

Am i wrong..?

Steelers fan 1st! UK is my 2nd love.

by vinceuk1 on Dec 5, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think they'll be ranked at 9-2

National pollsters don’t watch games… they watch SportsCenter. And what they will have seen on SportsCenter was an embarassment to VMI and an embarassment to UNC. Interspersed in there will be a few bottom line scrolls that we beat Longwood, Delaware St, and Lamar.

It will take a good showing in nationally televised games against Indiana and more importantly against Louisville to cancel out any of that perception. After that, if we start into conference play with a good run, I think we’ll get ranked sometime in mid January.

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Dec 5, 2008 5:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

UNC

how much do you (and everyone else) think the UNC loss will hurt? I think as solid as they are this year, no one is really going to be penalized for losing to them. I think of VMI as our only real loss, and I mean that in a way that it is a loss we have to make up for. i know i didn’t explain that well, but i hope it makes sense.

GO BIG BLUE!! GO BIG BLUE!!

by UKWildCatFanatic on Dec 5, 2008 6:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

They could be ranked after this weekend

The Miami game will be televised nationally and if UK has a good showing against them I wouldn’t be shocked to see them squeak into the top 25. They also will have that rare back to back game on Sunday that should be an easy win.

I’m not saying I expect it to happen, but it could.

BTW, when was the last time (if ever) UK played back to back games in a non-tournament setting?

"That's not a Sherman tank, it's Frank Thomas!" - Monkeyball

by JLeverenz on Dec 5, 2008 7:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well ...

… almost none of the teams that are being compared have any true road wins yet. Most have tournaments or long home stands.

But you are right, winning on the road separates the men from the boys. No doubt.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Dec 5, 2008 6:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure we'll see much eFG% improvement

Here are the eFG% for the last five seasons (what Pomeroy has available):

2004: 58.2
2005: 60.3
2006: 58.2
2007: 59.6
2008: 57.4

The Cats currently stand at 57.1 and history suggests that’s about as high as it will get. The numbers are historically similar for 2pt FG%. What reducing turnovers will do is get us more FG attempts which will in turn lead to more points.

Actually, looking at some individual games, I don’t think that eFG number is a fluke of the schedule. Here is how UK fared against the three best defenses they have faced in eFG% allowed:

UNC: allows 42.7% (34th) UK shot 47.8%
KSU: allows 43.5% (44th) UK shot 76.6% (!!!)
WVU: allows 46.6% (111th) UK shot 39.7%

That’s a combined 53.02% eFG percentage against three decent defenses.

I was actually a bit surprised that West Virginia was the lowest of the three, I thought their defense was much better than K-State’s, but that’s a perfect lesson in the danger of basing opinions on one game samples.

"That's not a Sherman tank, it's Frank Thomas!" - Monkeyball

by JLeverenz on Dec 5, 2008 8:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well ...

… I do think that UK’s eFG% can get a bit higher, but your point is well taken. The SEC is relatively weak this year, and I expect the ’Cats to feast on some of these teams and pad that eFG stat quite a bit.

In the West Virgina game, the reason for the lower percentage was that WVU played ridiculously physical. It was more like a rugby game, the amount of grabbing and uncalled obvious fouls were very distracting. That was a poorly officiated game, and West Virgina wound up with about 500 fouls. I have no idea how they managed to field a team.

I expect today’s game to be similar, if hopefully not as egregious.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Dec 6, 2008 10:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

WVU defense

Yeah, that’s mostly why I thought they were better defensively than KSU, because they were more physical. I assume that’s how they play in all their games, but I haven’t seen them so maybe the officials calling fouls makes them back off and without the physicality they don’t have much else to fall back on defensively.

Like I said, that’s the danger of basing an opinion on a one game sample ;-)

"That's not a Sherman tank, it's Frank Thomas!" - Monkeyball

by JLeverenz on Dec 6, 2008 10:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Huggins Teams

Always tough on defense. Not so tough on offense.

by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 6, 2008 10:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

huh

Numbers and stats confound me, and I know it’s too early for these to have all that much significance, but this was a fascinating roundup. And I can’t help but be gratified to see us in the top 25 somewhere. Thanks, Ken.

by blue kentucky girl on Dec 5, 2008 11:39 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Rankings

If we can handle Miami this weekend, beat the teams we’re supposed to and then look good on national TV (or even beat) UofL… I really think we’ll resurface in the Top 25 early in January.

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Dec 5, 2008 12:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Trendline Is Up!

The most propitious portent of these statistics and even just the visual evidence is that the performance trend line for 2008-9 Wildcats is definitely upward – and with a rather strong vertical component. Even more sanguine is there is ample room for continued growth.

by Wild Weasel on Dec 5, 2008 1:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

True.

If we can sustain that trend, we may be on to something.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Dec 5, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

why 2 games on back to back days..?

Has anyone heard why we are doing this..? Seems kinda strange to me, but I’m sure there’s a reason…

Steelers fan 1st! UK is my 2nd love.

by vinceuk1 on Dec 5, 2008 3:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I don't know ...

… but I don’t think it’s a bad thing. It is strange, though.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Dec 5, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Because it worked well in Vegas?

:)

C! A! T! S! CATS! CATS! CATS!

by NYCCats on Dec 5, 2008 4:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't believe

I can ever remember us having two reg. season/non tournament games one day after the other before. It is strange. I guess it’s just a scheduling fluke. It’s pretty cool though—between Marshall Co Hoopfest— you coming, chirop?? ; ) —and TWO UK games, it’s a pretty good weekend for this basketball fan.

by blue kentucky girl on Dec 5, 2008 4:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I cannot remember

This happening in schedule either…but I love it! Two basketball games this weekend!

by kykat51 on Dec 5, 2008 5:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No... I will NOT be coming to the hoopfest

;-)

I saw that UK signee Jon Hood will be playing there though.

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Dec 5, 2008 5:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

nice

hell yea! ive been depending on kenpom.com for real rankings the last couple of seasons

by hummer11092 on Dec 5, 2008 3:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Miami Hurricans Breakdown at straitpinkie.com

Check out a breakdown of the Cats next opponent, the Miami Hurricanes.

www.straitpinkie.com

by catsfanyo on Dec 5, 2008 5:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Tru...

Is this Spam?

by kykat51 on Dec 5, 2008 6:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep, and I have ...

… addressed it in another thread (the one above, actually)

I am being lenient because he does good work, but I have notified him that the correct procedure is to email me his link and I will kindly link it. Future posts like this will be deleted without comment.

In fact, if I see this linked again down the blog, it is going in the bit bucket. Enough is enough.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Dec 5, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

Been happening for a few weeks here.

by kykat51 on Dec 5, 2008 7:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah. I know.

As I said, I have let it go. But no more.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Dec 6, 2008 10:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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