Central Michigan 52, Kentucky 84: Post Mortem
Central Michigan University came into Rupp Arena tonight undermanned and injured, but despite these facts they dominated the Wildcats for the first five minutes of the game. Unfortunately for the Chippewas, Kentucky dominated the other 35 even more convincingly. I'm sure Kentucky fans appreciate the gritty effort by the Chippewas in a losing cause, and they can take pride in the fact that, for a while there, they had most of the Commonwealth cursing at their television set, radio, or ESPN 360.
I'm not quite sure how to feel about this game. On the one hand Kentucky won it easily, but on the other hand, it seems there were a lot of things that went wrong. When you look at the statistics it's hard to really criticize any particutlar thing. UK had 22 assists on 30 made baskets, shot outstanding percentages from everywhere, suffered only 13 turnovers (not a bad number for this team), had seven blocks and eight steals not to mention easily winning the game.
Still, it somehow seems like we played relatively poorly even though there is no way to support such a conclusion from the statistics. I think that I got used to the fast starts and huge leads early in the game and anything falling short of that looks like a failure. But make no mistake, this game was not a failure -- it just didn't feel as good as the stats look.
But, that aside, here are some observations:
- The Liggins/Porter battle (at least in the minds of some Wildcat fans) looks like a draw tonight. Liggins had a career high 8 assists and 4 rebounds, but he tarnished those spectacular numbers with 5 turnovers and 3-8 shooting. For the entire early part of the second half, he looked completely out of control on both ends. He did steady down in the end when the game was out of reach. Liggins played solid defense, much better than last game.
- Porter, on the other hand, had a good shooting game with 12 points on 4-8 shooting, and found his three point touch again. Unfortunately, he had only 3 assists with 4 turnovers. Porter did not do nearly as well as his last 4 games, but he was steady, solid on defense, and generally made good decisions.
- Jodie Meeks once again looked great from the perimeter, but he is a little to selfish sometimes. He needs to learn how to pass and rebound -- only one assist and only two rebounds. But he did have two steals and played solid defense, so overall, he had a good game.
- Patrick Patterson was, as usual, awesome. He missed only one shot in seven attempts, made all three of his free throws, and had only one turnover to go with nine rebounds. All-American numbers.
- What can I say about Landon Slone? He was just great on both ends of the floor. I just wonder how he will do when faced with high-major athletes. We'll find out soon enough.
- Darius Miller is just struggling, and that's all there is to it. He looked dejected on the bench tonight, and I hope he gets his confidence back soon. We need him. He is trying so hard that he is overplaying, allowing more patient opposing players to eventually disadvantage him.
- Perry Stevenson was a DNP/player's decision. I say that because he was invisible other than a couple of blocks. Four total rebounds. He vanished into the background noise. We need more from him than that.
- Josh Harrellson had a great game, Pattersonesque. He was solid on offense and defense, and made good decisions and did the little things. It's nice to see him back. If only he and Perry could find themselves on the same page at the same time.
- AJ Stewart was active, and had three blocks and two goaltends.
At the end of the day, this was the kind of game you might call "uneven" if you didn't look at the stats, but one thing I do notice is that we only outrebounded them by three and CMU beat us by 5 on the offensive glass. Rebounding has been a weakness of this team all year, and it baffles me.
But that aside, we are done with relatively easy home games. Now, we must take on the Louisville Cardinals, who are not hurt, who are most certainly not undermanned against anyone but maybe North Carolina or the Boston Celtics, and who surely represent another level of challenge. I daresay that if we get behind early by nine against them, our odds of a successful outcome will be greatly diminished.
No more Little Debbie. No more Hostess. The fun is over. The work begins now, and the degree of difficulty goes up by an order of magnitude. Are we ready?
I hope so.
0 recs |
96 comments
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Comments
Intensity will be there for a superior opponent.
Flat last two games because of cupcake status. You knew I knew it they knew the opponent was a “gimme.”
Now comes a “superior” opponent (ranked) and in-state foe UL. They will be looking for some satisfaction. Key will be will whether they can remember to play TOGETHER and ENFORCE THEIR WILL against opponents no matter who that opponent is. Don’t assign a face, just a number and beat the numbers.
GO BIG BLUE!!!
by bluecrip on Dec 29, 2008 10:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I expect ...
… you are right to a certain degree. At least, I hope so.
They did find the intensity eventually, which is something.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 29, 2008 10:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I pray to God that you are wrong
About taking cupcakes for granted. There are too many Gardner-Webbs, San Diegos, and VMI’s in the recent past to be taking anyone for granted.
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
by chirop1 on Dec 30, 2008 9:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
UK Has Won 3 Of Last 4 AT Louisville
Why not 4 out of 5?
by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 29, 2008 10:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Because they are better? :-)
Well, at least they have a higher ceiling. We are certainly good enough to beat them.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 29, 2008 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
...or UofL inconsistent enough to lose it.
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 29, 2008 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It is the the final exam
before the SEC. I am sure Meeks will be guarded heavy. If he scores in the mid 20’s with a good shot percentage I like our chances of winning. We will turn the ball over but hopefully no more than 20. I believe our guys are a more dedicated team than UL and it could make the difference.
by Grasslands1 on Dec 29, 2008 10:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well ...
… we’ll just have to see. Big game. Much bigger than last year.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 29, 2008 11:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
More dedicated????
……Uhhhhhhh, how so?
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 29, 2008 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
umm, maybe...
…Earl Clark & T. Will looking ahead to NBA..?
I’m not saying they are, just trying to guess the “more dedicated” remark…
Also, what’s your opinion of super Sam..? He looks a bit lazy to me, but I’ve only seen them play twice…
Steelers fan 1st! UK is my 2nd love.
by vinceuk1 on Dec 29, 2008 11:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ummm, maybe...
…Patterson and Meeks looking ahead to NBA…?
Samuels is the real deal, but I think he is still behind where Patterson was last year. Patterson is better all around, but Samuels has a better power game. He is lacking in passing and is still learning how to play big against consistently bigger players…common for a freshman.
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 29, 2008 11:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Meeks, maybe...
…Patterson is too grounded for that, IMO
Steelers fan 1st! UK is my 2nd love.
by vinceuk1 on Dec 29, 2008 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No way.
Meeks won’t project high enough. He can’t create his own shot and he needs to improve defensively. Patterson has a much higher chance of leaving than Meeks.
I don’t buy that any of these players for UK or UofL are distracted or uncommitted because of the NBA.
by BBallSophist on Dec 29, 2008 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly my point...
…thanks.
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 29, 2008 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Meeks would only get drafted if there
were 5+ rounds in the NBA Draft.
by mrmondaynite on Dec 30, 2008 8:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that's right.
He would probably be a second-rounder this year. He may be able to work his way into the first round next year.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 30, 2008 9:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think grasslands is referring to the lack of "team play" at UL.
by Ken Howlett on Dec 29, 2008 11:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't even know what that means....
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 29, 2008 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There was an article the other day (prior to Christmas) about a perceived lack of "team play" at U of L.
I don’t remember who wrote it, but I think it was in the CJ, but I could be wrong. I didn’t read it, so I don’t know what the gist of the piece was about. I thought grasslands may have been referring to that article.
by Ken Howlett on Dec 29, 2008 11:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not trying to
dodge question Hoze but In my opinion Ricky is not getting the same quality of people at UL that it takes to win the big one. I can’t back it with facts that I have seen with my own eyes, LOL
by Grasslands1 on Dec 29, 2008 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well he's been to the Final Four...and that was a quality team that could have won
Besides, times have changed. With the exception of UNC’s team this year, over the past few years and into the near future having dominant teams with senior leadership is a thing of the past. I think that if a coach has a Top 10-15 team going into the tournament, he has a legitimate chance to win. There is way too much parity now days.
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 30, 2008 12:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That Team (2005)
Was nowhere the caliber of his 1993, 96, or 97 teams that made FF appearances.
Pitino no longer recruits or coaches like he did in the 1990’s.
by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 30, 2008 6:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Off topic....
but I just read where Wayne Chisum for Tennessee landed hard on his back tonight and was taken of the court on a strecher and neck brace. Shades of Ramon. I hope he is injured too severely and has a speedy return.
Slower Traffic Keep Right!
by SevenRings on Dec 29, 2008 10:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
... not injured too severely ...
I know that’s what you meant.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 29, 2008 10:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that should read I hope he ISNT injured to severely
Slower Traffic Keep Right!
by SevenRings on Dec 29, 2008 10:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't wait.
We just have to start out strong with the right starting five. We can play some D and we have to bring it big time. UL does’t shoot well and we need to make sure they stay that way for one more week.
by Grasslands1 on Dec 29, 2008 11:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If UK can force U of L into taking a high percentage of outside shots, then I really like our chances.
by Ken Howlett on Dec 29, 2008 11:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see that happening...
…UK is not strong or deep enough inside to shut that part of UofL’s offense. Besides Samuels can’t pass the ball back outside anyway. :)
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 29, 2008 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know -- Patterson, Stevenson, Harrellson, Stewart -- I think those guys can handle ball denial into the paint ...
… but just as responsible for shutting down the opponents offense are the guards. They have to pressure, pressure, presure the ball. McGee has to feel as uncomfortable as he ever has in his life. If they can take him out of his comfort zone, he’ll make mistakes, and they’ll be forced to Plan B, which isn’t nearly as effective as Plan A.
It will take a team defensive effort to pull it off.
by Ken Howlett on Dec 29, 2008 11:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For what it is worth...
UofL has had ZERO problems getting Samuels the ball. Now there are times where he can’t get it in the basket, that’s for sure.
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 29, 2008 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Pettigrew and Co. can shut them down inside...
I like UK’s chances.
From what I’ve seen, it doesn’t take much to frustrate UofL’s guards into taking outside shots when they should be pounding it inside.
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
by chirop1 on Dec 30, 2008 9:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
anyone notice if Pilgrim was on the bench tonight..?
Steelers fan 1st! UK is my 2nd love.
by vinceuk1 on Dec 29, 2008 11:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
GREAT...! thanx!
Steelers fan 1st! UK is my 2nd love.
by vinceuk1 on Dec 29, 2008 11:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If BG gets funny with the starters
for what ever reason I’m just going to check into the mental ward. I won’t be able to take it. I do not expect that to happen. It’s time to get down right serious and he knows it. I have the faith.
by Grasslands1 on Dec 29, 2008 11:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I only got listen to the second half on
ukathletics.com so can’t give any feedback on anybody. Plus I’m not an armchair coach. HA ! I had to throw that in Ken. LOL.
by Grasslands1 on Dec 29, 2008 11:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is that barbed comment pointed at me or Pom :)
by Ken Howlett on Dec 29, 2008 11:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pom
He didn’t care for my opinions on what great coaches do the other night. All’s well.
by Grasslands1 on Dec 29, 2008 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
KH, I enjoy you.
It was Dec. 28, I don’t remember you one that night but it caused a little reprimand to KP from Tru. I enjoy KP except I disagree with him about perfect spelling on blogs. KP has some very nice reads.
by Grasslands1 on Dec 29, 2008 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He basically said alot of
things about me without knowing me at all. Only because I wrote there instead of their. Basically he didn’t agree with what I said so he attacked my spelling. Back to the BIG game.
by Grasslands1 on Dec 29, 2008 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Patterson
6-7 for a cool 85.7%…
um, lets get him the ball a little more guys….
Steelers fan 1st! UK is my 2nd love.
by vinceuk1 on Dec 29, 2008 11:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
UK has feasted on teams of late....
in the paint and I think UK will find it much more difficult against UofL around the basket. Hopefully UK can get a repeat performance from 3 point land however I am not holding my breath because Porter and Slone haven’t shown enough consistency from that range. The interior game may be a wash and it may come down to guard play.
This game is big for UK and I hope they tighten things up and get it done.
Slower Traffic Keep Right!
by SevenRings on Dec 29, 2008 11:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
How can the interior game be a wash??
UofL is MUCH stronger inside. Guard play will decide it but only if UK’s guard play or shooting is much more superior to make up for the inside mismatch.
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 29, 2008 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Minnesota didn't think so...lol
…I’m just having some fun with ya’ Hoze… lol
Steelers fan 1st! UK is my 2nd love.
by vinceuk1 on Dec 29, 2008 11:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Different Circumstances
Louisville played (Ole Miss) in Cincy on Thursday night, then flew to Phoenix on Friday for the game on Saturday.
Tubby and Gophers had 10 days to prepare. Louisville had 1 day.
by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 29, 2008 11:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
does Tubby pay you..?
….I was have some fun with Hoze, but thanx for your input..!
Steelers fan 1st! UK is my 2nd love.
by vinceuk1 on Dec 29, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just Because Team A Beat Team B
Doesn’t mean Team C will beat them under different circumstances.
by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 30, 2008 6:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If you give Tubby ten days to prepare you might as well not even show up for the game.
by Ken Howlett on Dec 29, 2008 11:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
From what I heard...
…we didn’t want to beat Minnesota anyway. :)
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 29, 2008 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I forgot you were a UL guy, or I wouldn't have been debating you about the game.
I guess the Cardinal icon should be a dead giveaway.
I think the game is going to be very close as I stated somewhere on this thread. I feel the team that disrupts the others offensive gameplan will be the winner — Both teams defensive gameplan should read “Force perimeter shots” — Whoever executes, wins.
By the way, I think it’s very cool that you come “over here” and post.
by Ken Howlett on Dec 29, 2008 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well if it comes down to just perimeter shooting...
…as a UofL alum & fan, I do not like that bet.
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 29, 2008 11:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, UK fans can't like it much either ...
… they shot well tonight, but when a team has only one reliable three-point threat, that team doesn’t want to get into a perimeter contest.
Meeks shot the ball extremely well in Freedom Hall versus Appy State (shades of Tony Delk), but the Cards are just a tad bit more athletic than the ’Neers.
by Ken Howlett on Dec 29, 2008 11:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pitino Hasn't "Wanted" To Beat Tubby Much This Decade
2 W and 5 L to him.
That’s Pitino with HIS recruits and Tubby (mostly) with HIS recruits.
by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 30, 2008 10:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Uh ...
… No, they aren’t. UK and U of L are evenly matched inside. Where U of L is stronger is in the midrange game, and they have the potential to be stronger from the perimeter.
Earl Clark is capable of shooting the ball from anywhere and forcing one of our bigs away from the basket. That may force Stevenson to guard Clark, which is a tough matchup for him because of Clark’s mobility outside and greater bulk inside.
But neither Samuels or Clark are capable of guarding Patterson one on one. Louisville will be forced to double-team him. We will not be forced to double-team Patterson’s man unless it is Clark. Patterson is quicker than Samuels and bulky enough to handle him, but Clark has too many moves for Patterson to guard one on one. Harrellson may be able to hold his own against Samuels, it just depends. Samuels is more athletic, but Harrellson is very strong in the lower body, and can force Samuels away from the basket when he is in.
The inside game is a push. Louisville’s depth and experience is their advantage, and their as-yet unrealized potential on the perimeter. They should not be as lousy from outside as they have been at times this year.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 30, 2008 6:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But Louisville's biggest advantage ...
… is their defensive quickness. Louisville can zone Kentucky, and UK really only has one capable outside scorer. Yes, Porter and Slone can sometimes make shots, but Louisville’s guards are too quick for them. All Pitino has to do is sit back in a zone and force Meeks to take challenged threes, and deny the ball to Patterson.
If I were Pitino, that’s exactly what I would do — force UK to beat the Cardinals from the perimeter, and keep pounding the ball inside to Samuels or Clark and take whatever they can produce. It looks like a winning formula from here, unless Gillispie can teach this Kentucky team how to properly attack a zone in five days. They haven’t been able to do it reliably yet.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 30, 2008 7:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good for you.
UK really only has one capable outside scorer.
I have been writing this from day one. Nice to see your read my posts and have come around finally.
:)
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 30, 2008 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Really capable ...
… is one thing. Competent is another. We have more than one competent three point shooter. You alleged we are a poor-shooting team because we don’t have a high percentage from three point land, a notion I find … unsupportable by actual logic.
Louisville’s three-point shooting is hardly their strength, either, in case you hadn’t noticed. In fact, if we both shoot our percentages from respective spots on the floor, Louisville will lose, 65-69.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 31, 2008 9:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As I have stated before...
…I cannot and will not defend UofL’s shooting. It’s a real concern….maybe I have to start typing in bold font.
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 31, 2008 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps.
But in the end, Louisville will likely have to beat UK with superior defense, and they are certainly capable of that. Pitino will almost certainly show zone, and Gillispie almost certainly will not, and given the way these two teams are playing right now, you would have to think that favors Louisville.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 31, 2008 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just saw this calculation...
Did you consider possessions in this calculation? Without looking it up, I’d think UK’s turnover rate is higher and therefore their possessions are lower or would be potentially lower than UoL.
Therefore, UofL would ‘win’ against a better shooting percentage team given their higher amount of possessions.
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 31, 2008 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I commented on this below.
Possessions per game are about equal at around 71/game. Kentucky currently averages two more turnovers, but they have been better in that area than Louisville lately. Since Louisville is shooting less than 50%, the two turnovers would statistically not be enough to overcome a 4-point margin.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 31, 2008 10:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah ...
… and one other thing. The stats I used are simple percentages based on total shots taken from each location, not the per-game stats, so they are tempo-neutral. Turnovers would already be factored in to those stats, and as such, are irrelevant. As is tempo. I simply divided by the number of games played to get the averages.
In any case, UK has a slightly lower adjusted tempo than Louisvlle at 71 vs 73, but UK has a higher raw tempo at 74.1 vs. 72.5 (Pomeroy’s site).
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 31, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Double ah!
I found an error. Well, two, actually. I didn’t account for free throws and I used the wrong percentage for two point FG%.
But interestingly enough, the new result is very similar to the old result, except at a higher score — Louisville, 76, Kentucky, 81 (rounding to the nearest whole number).
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 31, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oops ...
Louisville should be 78 there.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 31, 2008 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I did some simple calculations..
UofL compared to UK:
FGA per Game
62.4
56.2
3PA per Game
25.1
17.1
So a far as attempts per game, which would also include rebounding, Uof L has more chances. Therefore, if both shot an average game, UoL would win 80-74. Interestingly that doesn’t take into consideration where UofL has shot 5 more foul shots per game.
So in essence, we are talking a blowout here. :)
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 31, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm...
…FYI, I am getting my stats from the ESPN site.
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 31, 2008 11:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
See below.
I just used your numbers. They were the same as mine but for a decimal point here and there.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 31, 2008 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
All correct.
But you failed to account for three facts:
1. Average shots taken are temp-neutral
2. Shooting percentages are tempo-neutral
3. Free throw shooting.
So here is how it ads up:
Louisville:
24.4 3-pointers @ .334 = 25.15 ppg.
37.3 2-pointers @ .508 = 37.9 ppg.
22.9 free throws @ .633 = 14.5 ppg.
Total: 77.55
Kentucky:
17.1 3-pointers @ .336 = 17.14 ppg
39.2 2-pointers @ .588 = 46.12 ppg
22.9 Free throws @ .779 = 17.86 ppg.
Total 81.11
Remember, these stats are all tempo-neutral, and all offensive rebounds, fouls, turnovers and pace are figured in already. This is what has happened, scoring-wise, divided by the number of games played.
Obviously, you can’t predict a game this way. We were debating shooting, and shooting-wise, UK has an advantage. That doesn’t mean we will win, unfortunately. :-)
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 31, 2008 11:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think we've worn this out...
…but let me add one more thought for consideration. The difference between your tempo-neutral and the ‘raw’ data speaks to the importance of pace in this game. UofL has to force a faster pace.
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 31, 2008 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Faster?
OK. But the data suggests both teams play at about the same pace, and UK is quite comfortable at a high pace, just not breakneck.
Statistically speaking, Louisville’s highest efficiency numbers have come at a pace between 67 and 77, let’s say around a 74 pace.
UK’s have come in the same range, between 68 and 78, again around 74 or so average.
In fact, Louisville’s highest pace game was Mississippi at 79, and their efficiency was only 94. UK lost a game in which they played at a 93 pace, and even had a decent efficiency at 111 (vs. VMI). In fact, UK appears to be more comfortable at higher paces than Louisville does, having played 4 games over a 78 pace with an average efficiency of 118.35.
Pace should not be a factor in this game. Louisville must play good half-court defense to beat Kentucky. Kentucky must break Louisville’s press and prevent the Cards from turning them over too many times. That’s how I see it, in macro view and assuming both teams play otherwise about average (not really a good assumption).
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 31, 2008 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tru, you are kidding right...
Harrellson may be able to hold his own against Samuels, it just depends. Samuels is more athletic, but Harrellson is very strong in the lower body, and can force Samuels away from the basket when he is in.
1. Nobody has outmuscled Samuels…no one. That is his strength.
2. Since when is Harrellson starting? Is you best defensive player a guy off the bench??
C’mon….you are losing your cerdibility.
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 30, 2008 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hoze
I would be very careful about that last sentence.
The last time someone said that on this site…it was not pretty.
Who knows who will be starting Sunday? No one including all of us and Coach.
by kykat51 on Dec 30, 2008 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But Coach will know...
After he reviews a blue million tapes on UL and has his practices this week.
by kykat51 on Dec 30, 2008 7:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Starting
Starting or not, with BCG’s rotations that doesnt matter. With the exceptions of Patterson and Meeks the rest of the starters and the main rotation players usually split about half the minutes apiece.
I certainly think it’s feasible that Harrellson? is strong enough to guard Samuals for anywhere from 11-20 minutes. Over the course of 40 minutes not so sure but I dont think he will be asked to for that long.
DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!
by davw83 on Dec 30, 2008 10:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nobody has outmuscled Samuels????
Go back and watch the gamefilm of the WKU game. 6-3 Stephon Pettigrew (former Mr. Basketball that got no interest from UK or UofL) played out of position and pushed Sam around all over the court and basically had his way with him.
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
by chirop1 on Dec 31, 2008 7:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's laughable..
…it’s true that Samuels didn’t have a good game, but he wasn’t outmuscled by a 6-3 guy…give us all a break. You can do better than that.
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 31, 2008 8:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Did you watch the game?
I did. And Pettigrew shoved him around and basically made Samuels a non-factor.
Not that I think that will be a regular occurrance for Sam, but it did happen.
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
by chirop1 on Dec 31, 2008 8:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking more ...
… along the lines of the Minnesota game. They have Johnathan Williams and Colton Iverson, two big bodies that Samuels could not push around. UK has plenty of muscle and size to handle Samuels.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 31, 2008 9:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't question my credibility on my own blog if I were you.
Debate me all you want, but as I have told others, you are putting forth an argument here, not a fact. Don’t couch arguments as facts, and don’t try to foreclose an argument by claiming more credibility than anyone else.
To your point — Your opinion is noted. I have stated mine.
Harrellson doesn’t need to start to play significant minutes. I didn’t say he was our best defensive player, we don’t need our best defensive player to hold down Samuels. He is a freshman, and a good one, but he hasn’t been that impressive against teams that can put a big body on him. See the Minnesota game for reference.
At this point, we don’t even know who will guard him. If it’s Patterson, I think Samardo will get a lesson he won’t soon forget just before he fouls out with 5 points and 4 rebounds. Samardo Samuels is good, but not good enough yet against the bodies that UK can put on him, and the athleticism. Clark is the one UK should worry about, and Williams. The combination is an advantage to Louisville, but make no mistake — Samuels is and should be the third man on that totem pole.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 31, 2008 9:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmmm...
…pretty bold statement and prediction with exact stats…..kind of sounds like ‘potential facts’. :)
Speaking of stats, here’s a reminder: Against UofL last year Patterson was 3-14 and had six turnovers. Of course, maybe that was due to all that great inside defense he was playing.
By the way, credibility is defined as the power of inspiring belief. It doesn’t necessarily involve facts….it can involve opinion.
Lastly, our side argument here (and that’s what this site is for somewhat, right?) is moot, considering I think your point on Clark and TWill is right on. Of course, UK presents it’s own concerns….I think they are playing with a high sense of confidence, they have improved, and I still say they play great defense. If UofL has a poor shooting game and UK has a great shooting game, UofL can lose….but that scenario is often common in all games when a weaker opponent beats a superior opponent. :)
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 31, 2008 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
By my calculation ...
… If both teams have an average shooting game, UK will win.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 31, 2008 10:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Does that involve turnover consideration?
'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'
by HozeKing on Dec 31, 2008 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just shooting percentages.
Keep in mind that Kentucky’s turnovers have lately been better than Louisville’s, and UK is only averaging two more turnovers right now than U of L is, even considering all those horrible games earlier.
Unless both those turnovers resulted in a basket (which they statistically wouldn’t, since U of L is shooting under 50%), then the turnovers wouldn’t matter.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 31, 2008 10:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ESPN Box score
shows UK with a +7 rebound margin and a -2 offensive margin.
by MyBloodRunsBlue on Dec 30, 2008 3:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Gametracker was different.
But either way, we once again lost out on the offensive glass against a much smaller and less skilled team. That doesn’t give me confidence for the Louisville game.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 30, 2008 7:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but.
watching the game I didn’t realize UK was outdone on the offensive boards.. it has been interesting that UK has won the rebound battle against good competition while losing badly on the offensive boards. for example, against UNC we outrebounded them by 3 but lost the offensive board battle by 7. Against KSU we outrebounded them by 7 but lost the offensive rebounds by an amazing 12 (of course when you shoot 70% you wont have many opportunities).
However, it is very odd that against Miami, we dominated the boards, offense and defense, winning the battle by 13 and 10… and lost! It will take a smarter man than myself to make sense of it all… although sometimes there are just strange stats that really don’t mean anythign at all.
by MyBloodRunsBlue on Dec 30, 2008 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Points
Only stat that really matters.
by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 30, 2008 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Offensive Rebounds Depend on Opportunities
The team that misses the most shots has the advantage when it comes to the number of offensive rebounds. If one teams shoots a low percentage and the other a high percentage, you would expect the team with the low percentage to have as many or more offensive rebounds.
According to the box score on the UK athletics site, Central Michigan missed 40 shots and had 13 offensive rebounds, or 32.5 percent of their opportunities. UK missed 26 shots and had 8 offensive rebounds, a 30.8 percent success rate.
The offensive rebounding was about even. But I suspect we beat them on second chance points, because they missed a bunch of shots down low after getting an offensive rebound.
by Fortunatus on Dec 30, 2008 10:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
See my above comment.
It may have worked out Monday, but there is no correlation that I can find between OR% and FG%. Seems like it would be there, but it isn’t.
You have to keep in mind that there are many factors influencing a rebound. It is one of the most random events in basketball, although not totally so. For instance, when a shooter knows it’s short and hustles after the shot, his odds of getting it go way up, because he knows it is short. But the ball bounces funny off the rim, and often even a guy who has textbook position fails to get the board.
I am desperately searching for some stat that correlates well to OR%, and maybe by using that we can isolate what would help.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Truzenzuzex on Dec 31, 2008 10:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hire Charles Barkley as rebounding coach!
The round mound of rebound!!!!
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
by chirop1 on Dec 31, 2008 10:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You'll have to bail him out first :)
by Ken Howlett on Jan 1, 2009 12:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He and Gillispie should get along just fine!
(Out of line… I know…)
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
by chirop1 on Jan 1, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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